Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

Can’t make this stuff up.

“Putin said that the expulsion of Russian agents from the Baltic states violates Russia’s security :)”

https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1747291354005131364

[FtrPilot]

A long read...but worthwhile.

In an attempt to defend his position that the three aircraft attacked yesterday were hit by friendly fire, Fighterbomber posted the below image (pic. 1) and stated:

"This is what an airplane/helicopter mark looks like on most modern sights. On most scopes, missiles look the same.

Dear experts of all stripes, who crawled out of all the cracks during the SVO, write what type of aircraft we see here, what size is it and what is its affiliation?

Thanks in advance for your answer."

If you agree with what he is saying, then to a Russian SAM operator, a civilian airliner looks the same as a KC-135 tanker so they would fire at it. And, although this explains the Russians shooting down civilian aircraft in the past, is simply is not true.

The fact is that military and civilian aircraft carry transponders that identify who they are known as IFF (Identify Friend or Foe) and/or ADS (Automatic Dependent Surveillance) and/or other systems specifically designed to avoid what he claims happened.

In addition, the Russian SAM units, especially those that would be firing at these aircraft (i.e., S300/400 but most likely and S400) are communicating with the A-50 (possibly even through the Il-22M11) to coordinate information on hostile targets. So, the A-50 was sending telemetry to the S400 unit identifying itself as a hostile target?

What he is claiming is simply not true and he knows better. I think that by going to this ridiculous extent to support his claim of friendly fire, he actually provides proof that the AFU shot down the aircraft.

Pic. 2 is of the inside of an S-400 Triumph showing part of the radar and fire control system. Even though the image is blurry, you can clearly see that targets on the radar screen have identification and telemetry associated with them and not just a number. Again, I believe he was working hard to do the job of the Russian propaganda machine to convince the ignorant Russian domestic sheep that their aircraft cannot be defeated by Ukraine or NATO.

I actually find it amusing that because of all of the Russian lies about the invincibility of their military, they then have to lie about shooting down their own planes to save face or claim the Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet sunk at sea because of a small storm. Therefore, to the Russian psyche, death by incompetence is better than death by defeat.

I wonder if they don't have to pay the families if its friendly fire...

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1747212103927091416

Here's some additional pics:

[PIF]

Moscovian casualties still mounting above unsustainable levels

[PIF]

Tracking video included - very fast, no labels objects.

The official TG channel of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Ukraine, General Zaluzhnyi, released a video, depicting the events around the two shot down Russian planes. You can see several bogeys. Two of them were fast losing speed and then suddenly vanished from the screen. The other planes left as fast as they can.

I marked the two crash sites on my map. The first happened close to the Ukrainian coast near Prymors’k, the other one on the way back to Russia. The second one could be the Il-22M11 trying desperately to reach Anapa.

One of crashed planes launched from the Kushchyovskaya air base in the Krasnodar region.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746856498683089159/video/1

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3445

Tragic news: 14 people were killed as a result of an attack on our planes over the Sea of ​​Azov

This figure was confirmed to us by three sources in the VKS.

There were 14 people on board the downed A-50 - crew members and operators. They all died.

Four people on board the Il-22 were wounded as a result of the enemy strike. All of them, fortunately, are alive, but two are in serious condition.

Happy memory to those who died. Eternal flight, brothers, as our pilots say.

[PIF]

According to this source the Ukraine has nothing to do with the shoot downs.

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/15407

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Putin was angry, but Shoigu was in no hurry to report important details about the loss of our A-50 AWACS aircraft

As we learned, unlike previous cases of serious losses at the front, this time they were in a hurry to report the tragedy to the President.

According to our data, Nikolai Patrushev and Valery Gerasimov tried to be the first to inform the President about the incident over the Sea of ​​​​Azov. But Sergei Shoigu was in no hurry.

Sources close to the President say he was very angry. At the same time, several representatives of the security bloc decided not to hide information from Vladimir Vladimirovich, but to report it honestly.

Including Nikolai Patrushev, to whom she received it through the Security Council. It is curious that Sergei Shoigu was not among those who wanted to report the truth to the president.

This is understandable; this is not some kind of dizzying success, but a real tragedy, which has already been called a “black day” for Russian aviation.

It seems that the hawks surrounded by the President, led by Patrushev Sr., are trying to open Vladimir Putin’s eyes to what is really happening on the fronts. And this is generally good news.

But the fact that the Minister of Defense is in no hurry to report the most important information to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is an alarming signal.

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

“We are people too.” In Voronezh they told who took away their air defense systems and asked for new ones

After a drone strike in Voronezh that damaged residential buildings, Governor Alexander Gusev sent an urgent appeal to Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu.

In it, he asks to strengthen the air defense of the Voronezh region and complains that the region’s defense has been weakened due to the authorities of Moscow and Crimea.

Gusev claims that the region’s air defense was seriously weakened, since part of the air defense and electronic warfare systems were taken from here to Crimea and Moscow.

In this regard, drones fly to residential areas of Voronezh and threaten the life and health of civilians, rather than getting shot down on approach to the city.

“All last year they took away our air defense systems. First they were taken away at the request of the Moscow authorities, then the Crimean and Sevastopol ones.

“The last time several air defense systems were taken to Moscow was just a few days ago due to intensifying frosts,” a source close to Gusev quoted us as saying.

“We are people too and we want to be protected. We ask you to urgently provide us with additional protection. Otherwise, the next enemy attack may end in tragedy,” the governor also says.

Putin has not yet familiarized himself with this appeal. But in the Ministry of Defense, according to our sources, “they simply don’t know where to get additional air defense systems for Voronezh and the region.”

“Perhaps we will transfer something from Moscow and the Moscow region. If Sobyanin doesn’t cause a scandal,” an interlocutor close to Shoigu told us.

[marcusmaximus]

Russian A-50 was just relocated from its base in Krymsk near the Eastern Black Sea to Ivanovo near Moscow. Afraid of getting shot down by “friendly fire” it seems.

[Vlad0]

And then there was one - well a pair of jokers, actually.

Our hero, SpeedyInTexas and his ward and side-kick, the young caped crusader, PIF.

With the apparent demise of the endless Denys the Menys threads hosted by the Reverend Mother the Ukraine Propaganda Operation on Free Republic (UPOFR, pronounced "Up Offer") all moves to this location!

Congratulations, you are the survivor.

But, sadly for you, I fear it's a pyrrhic victory.

Start with YOUR recurring source, Oryx. They aren't doing very well. (BTW: Have you ever noticed how Arabic their logo looks? I wonder why that is?)

On 19 June 2023, Oryx announced that the blog would end on 1 October 2023. In the statement posted on Twitter, Oryx explained that the blog had been created a decade earlier "out of boredom", and that the project – which had been conducted "in our free time" and without any pay – had turned into an "all-consuming project" that had not resulted in any jobs and which "just doesn't make me happy anymore".In a follow-up statement, Oryx clarified that the list covering losses in Russia's invasion of Ukraine would continue to be updated until the end of the war by long-time contributor Jakub Janovsky and the open-source intelligence group WarSpotting.

OK, pretty sketchy. Janovsky was probably bailed out by deep-pocketed friends at some NeoCon institute or other. So the ridiculous tank counts continue in 2024.

One big difference between Russian equipment losses (whatever they actually are) and Ukrainian is that the latter are really American financial losses, seeing as we are paying for the vast majority of this ridiculous war.

NBC: With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine’s war against Russia could get even harder in 2024

KEY POINTS

• At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive would change the dial in the war against Russia.

• It didn’t, and 2024 could be even harder.

• Ukraine’s alliances with the U.S. and Europe could be destabilized further in 2024, putting the future of military aid packages in doubt.

• The amount of support and military hardware Ukraine receives could make or break its war efforts.

• Russia has ramped up military spending and weapons production, signaling it’s prepared for a long war.

At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.

It didn’t, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.

They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv’s forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.

Away from the battlefield, military experts said that the trajectory the Russia-Ukraine war takes in 2024 will mostly be dictated thousands of miles away in the U.S., Ukraine’s largest military supporter, and whether aid declines in the run-up — and following — the U.S. presidential election.

...

“We’re in this situation now where if there’s not a clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate, and there’s going to be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What can tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not resupplied and they’re not re-funded and they don’t get the equipment and people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the Russians,” Twitty noted.

There is nothing unusual about this analysis, this is the standard view of the war in January 2024 by Western supporters of Ukraine.

It doesn't sound much like the impression given by the endless "Dead Tank Threads" that you two caped-crusaders keep so thoughtfully refreshed here on Free Republic.

[Allegra]

Oh, that’s going to leave a mark. Ouch. 😁

[marcusmaximus]

Kyiv in 3 days! Bring your parade uniform!

[blitz128]

Vlads not doing to bad if a job of bowing to the Muslims,

[blitz128]

Which is worse Muscovites shooting down their own or Ukranians, either way you are incompetent, wonder which muscovite pilots fear most flying near Ukraine or over their own territories

[BeauBo]

“They say that (that Russian shot down their own planes), because they don’t want to admit, that they couldn’t see the Ukrainian missiles coming.

Or...They cannot admit any Ukrainian success.”

Either way, it is super lame to have to use that as a cover story...

[BeauBo]

ISW reports (15 jan):

“Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russia had only three A-50s and six modernized A-50Us in service prior to this strike...

...source claiming to be an employee of an unspecified Russian security structure claimed that unspecified Russian actors created a “duck” (a Russian term for a false claim) about how Russian forces shot down the A-50 to reassure Russian pilots that missions over the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are still safe and that human error was the cause of the incident.

[FtrPilot]

Either way, it is super lame to have to use that as a cover story...

If the Russians shot down their own planes, over the Azov sea, then they have a serious problem in Air Defense command & communications.

If a high ranking Air Defense general officer falls out of a window, then it was a Russian shoot down.

If an Air Defense colonel or lt colonel falls out of a window, then it was a Patriot.

[BeauBo]

Russian force generation can sustain current levels of losses for low-skilled ground forces (specific equipment is another issue), but a high profile mobilization (after the election) would likely be needed, if Russia really sought to change the status quo.

ISW reports (15 Jan):

“Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia recruits about 30,000 personnel per month, which the Russian military uses to replenish losses and form reserve regiments.

Ukrainian military analyst Colonel Petro Chernyk similarly assessed that Russia is able to replace about 25,000 to 27,000 personnel per month and has a small ready professional reserve of mechanized, naval infantry, and airborne (VDV) assault units staffed at 10 to 15 percent of its total capacity.

Skibitskyi and Chernyk’s figures are consistent with the ISW’s assessment that Russian forces can conduct operational level rotations in most sectors of the frontline. Chernyk stated that Russia has between 1.5 million and seven million people in its general mobilizable reserve (“personnel mobilization resource” or zapas) composed of men that could be mobilized regardless of prior military experience, as distinct from the far smaller ready and professional reserve (“personnel mobilization reserve“) that should, in theory, be more militarily proficient on mobilization.

Skibitskyi reported that Russia would need to conduct “mobilization” (likely referring to large-scale mobilization) to establish a “powerful strategic reserve.””

[FtrPilot]

🔥 Russia: Warehouse on fire in Penza.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1747321209891721653

Penza on Google Maps

[marcusmaximus]

Reports that Russia launched major offensive in the east today and were unsuccessful. I’m sure more details soon.