Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
You’ve noted key red flags for such groups. Add to it newbies pushing for more aggressive actions as well as illegal moves.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
With all bouncing around the world, movement towards the approval of the WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ is flying below the radar. Final meeting is scheduled for the latter part of the month.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The threat of a Trump assassination has reared its head by one of the lefts talking heads. Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki fantasized about Trump dying before the 2024 election on a Tuesday morning appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Psaki fantasized about all the ways Trump can be eliminated this election season.
“Maybe Donald Trump will go away. Maybe he’ll go to jail. Maybe he will die…..”
OBSERVATION - She is not the first to voice such a desire for the death of Trump. These revelations of the desire to kill Trump illuminate the deep, dark pit of current leftist thinking and many see such statements as potentially conditioning the masses for such an attempt. As questionable at this stage of the election cycle some of these polls are - it seems the left is taking them very seriously and even beginning to fear a blowout of monumental proportions. This will drive further radical actions to get Trump out of the race, especially as the law fare efforts are falling apart.
One thing that will trigger a violent response from the center-right is an assassination.
***
There are stll a few campus protest tent villages holding out at liberal colleges.
***
Antifa / pro-hamas are calling for emergency protests to stop the Israeli operations in Rafah.
Antifa elements in Black bloc showed up to disrupt various presentations / meetings, such as one by Charlie Kirk at UW.
One thing clearly noted is the improvement in personal body armor by the black bloc elements. More tactical (military ) helmets, full face masks, light weight body armor (mostly non bullet proof), improved foot wear, a tactical gloves, etc. In a hand to hand situation they appear to be ready. One important thing to remember is that part of their tactical ‘doctrine’ would include armed elements further back that could in essence provide overwatch fire if necessary. The display of these better equipped forces raise red flags for predicted violence later this summer.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Judge Cannon has indefinitely postponed the classified document case against President Trump following revelations and admission by the prosecutor that the govt tampered with evidence.
Bragg’s case against trump is imploding as well as prosecutors dismantled their own case via their own witnesses.
Biden / Harris Watch –
According to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll, black voters’ desire to vote in the 2024 general election has fallen off since 2020, which could be worrisome for President Joe Biden.
The poll found that 62% of black voters said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” which is down from 74% who said they were certain to vote in June 2020. The Biden campaign recently announced it would spend $25 million trying to reach key demographics of voters in battleground states in what some have called “the largest and earliest investment in Black media for a reelection campaign in history.”
Younger black voters showed the biggest drop in enthusiasm. Only 41% aged 18-39 said they are certain they will vote in the 2024 general election.
OBSERVATION - Don’t say whoopee too fast but this poll tracks with other similar ones that show support sinking fast.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
Illegal Immigration –
The president elect of Panama has promised to close down illegals migrating thru the country.
There has been a spike in military aged men from China being intercepted along the Californian border with Mexico.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia’s need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.
***
French troops will become a target for the Russian army if they find themselves in the Ukrainian conflict zone - Russian Foreign Ministry
Logistics –
Reports that Russia has significantly ramped up its production of arms and ammo in anticipation of a summer offensive.
Further reports that NK provided ballistic missiles are largely inaccurate and often blow up in flight. Problems also persist with NK supplied artillery rounds.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy overnight as Russia launched a large deep missile attack. Ukrainian air defense shot down 33 of 45 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 of 4 Kaliber cruise missiles, 2 of 2 Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, 20 of 21 Shahed drones overnight. Russia also launched 1 Kh-47M2 missile, 2 ballistic Iskander-M missiles, 1 cruise missile Iskander-K. Lviv region in western Ukraine as well as the Kyiv region were targeted.
Poland reportedly scrambled aircraft as a precaution.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a fuel storage depot in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast, using at least one US-suppled MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile.
Ground combat subsided slightly overnight, but Russia continues to press its main attacks in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.
Ukrainian counterintelligence investigators have foiled a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top military and political figures, Ukraine’s state security service said Tuesday.
Two colonels in the State Guard of Ukraine, which protects top officials, were detained on suspicion of enacting the plan drawn up by Russia’s Federal Security Service, a statement said. The colonels were recruited before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the statement.
Outlook —
It has been a while since the last major Russian missile assault, suggesting that supplies may be running low. Ukraine use of ATACAMS on petroleum targets, especially if they use cluster munition ones, has the potential to really harm Russian oil supplies both domestically as well as for military support.
More evidence that US munitions are quickly reaching embattled Ukraine forces in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne regions as Russian advances appear to be on the brink of stalling out. Now Russian forces have to contend with Ukrainian artillery support they didn’t have to worry about previously.
I expect that Russia will continue to push its efforts in those two regions to gain as much ground as possible before the effects of a re-armed Ukraine can take full effect.
Belarus -
Belarus military forces, and in particular those with nuclear capable missiles, conducted a readiness exercise over the past few days.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Confirmation from the US of deliberate delays of precision munitions in an effort to dissuade the Rafah operation.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel has reopened the Kerem Shalom Crossing with the Gaza Strip for humanitarian aid after it was shuttered on Sunday following a deadly rocket attack
***
Channel 12 reports that a very tense call between Israeli and US officials about the hostage deal occurred prior to the start of the Rafah operation. The Israelis were very upset and concerned about the position taken by the US about the fake Hamas deal. The US told them they refused to reject it flatly and instead said it was a “counter offer.” IMHO, I think it’s related to what was reported in Axios, that Israel believes the US had a part in this deception. Israel, under massive pressure from the US in the past month, comprised to crazy levels while Hamas didn’t move an inch. I think Israel believes the US wants them to compromise even further.
***
A senior US administration official confirmed on Tuesday that the US paused a shipment of bombs to Israel last week over concerns that Israel was approaching a decision on launching a full-scale assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, The Associated Press reported.
The official said the decision to pause the shipment was made last week and no final decision had been made yet on whether to proceed with the shipment at a later date.
The shipment which was paused was supposed to consist of 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs, according to the official, with the focus of U.S. concern being the larger explosives and how they could be used in a dense urban setting.
The confirmation follows a report by Axios’ Barak Ravid that the Biden administration had stopped a shipment of US-made ammunition to Israel last week.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389587
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight, there were further Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip, hours after Israeli forces backed by tanks took control of the Palestinians side of the key Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt.
The Israeli bombardment was particularly intense around Rafah. The crossing remained closed on Wednesday morning, but the Israeli military said it was reopening the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing, which had been closed for four days because of Hamas rocket fire.
Further ground advances, other than those for immediate tactical positioning, appear to remain at a pause. Some media sources are suggesting that the territory gained in the initial attack is being prepared as the jumping-off point for the main thrust into the city.
A secondary effort may be to ratchet up pressure on Hamas to agree to a real ceasefire deal, not the bogus agreement that Hamas said it would accept just minutes before the attack on the border crossing began. Combat would pose real risks to any surviving hostages and that is something Israel would like to avoid at the present - get as may hostages out of harms way before finishing the job on Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports of extensive airstrikes overnight in southern Lebanon with IDF aircraft targeting Hezbollah targets after numerous Hezbollah attacks on Israel earlier yesterday.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
——— FORECAST ————————-
More revelations of US backstabbing of Israel both on the bogus Hamas acceptance of a ceasefire ‘agreement’ as well as withholding munitions.
As noted above, Rafah operations are in a tactical pause as IAF softens targets for the next phase of the operation. It doesn’t appear that there will be any significant movement on any hostage release agreement in the near future, so continued ground operations may well begin at any time, once Israel has set the tactical situation into its favor.
Israel is facing portions of an estimated 8 Hamas ‘battalions’ and has committed 3 brigades for this phase of combat. How combat capable these battalions are is uncertain, but from the force Israel has projected into the operation, they may not be fully up to snuff. However, Israel has many brigades available in ready operational reserve.
I expect ground operations to resume within the next 24 hours in order to retain the initiative and further pressure Hamas into a hostage release agreement more favorable to israel, similar to the one earlier in the war. Unfortunately, I think the mental mind set of Hamas is to die a martyr’s death and kill the hostages before IAF forces can free them.
Hezbollah remains and I expect it to continue as such, on the sidelines, offering little in a way of attacking Israel to take pressure off Hamas. Israel has continued to increase military forces towards the north, so that any action by Hezbollah would be strongly countered and result in severe losses.
Misc of Note –
The encrypted-messaging service Signal is the application of choice for dissenters around the world. The app has been downloaded by more than 100 million users and boasts high-profile endorsements from NSA leaker Edward Snowden and serial entrepreneur Elon Musk. Signal has created the perception that its users, including political dissidents, can communicate with one another without fear of government interception or persecution.
https://christopherrufo.com/p/signals-katherine-maher-problem
OBSERVATION - It would not be surprising to me to see that Signal is compromised in some fashion (see link to article above). As advertised, Signal was to be the unbreakable comms means for all. But if backdoors have been installed, full reliance on its security features would be unwise. Monitoring to see just how bad the potential danger is.
Also note - it appears that Proton mail has been compromised.
Consider your comms wisely
FYI - from another freeper thread... important for background on the Astro Turf commie campus riots:
“...the Post has reported ... one of the main organizers of the protests at Columbia is a 35 year-old non-student by the name of Manolo de los Santos, who runs a non-profit called The People’s Forum. De los Santos seems to have nothing but time on his hands to participate in and organize protests, which gives rise to a strong inference that he is being well paid by somebody. Here is a picture of de los Santos from the Post via de los Santos’s own X account... the Post found a smoking guy.
This is a picture of a mid-level ‘organizer’ Notice the hammer and sickle in the background of the picture.
biden’s actions towards Israel will not be forgotten by our ‘allies’. It goes hand in hand with funding Iran and its terror proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas).
biden’s decision also effectively kills the US hostages being held by Hamas - who now have less of a need to negotiate a ceasefire for their release.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Efforts to force a two state ‘solution’ on Israel and the middle east are an extension of the globalist efforts to reduce the Israeli presence and status in the region.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Broken into the open when called out as a “power grab,” Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) has expressed his opposition to the Biden administration’s proposal to transfer members of the Air National Guard to the Space Force without the permission of state or territorial governors. He is not alone as the governors of 48 states and five U.S. territories also expressed their opposition to LP 480.
According to a “Blaze” report - “LP480 would enable the Secretary of the Air Force to transfer the covered space functions currently performed by the Air National Guard to the U.S. Space Force. The secretary would be enabled to change the status of an ANG unit to a unit of the USSF, to deactivate the unit, or to assign the unit to “a new Federal mission.”
The proposed legislation also waives the requirement to first obtain a governor’s consent prior to making such changes to a National Guard unit.”
The plan is not being received favorably by NG personnel. In one instance, 70% of Air National Guard (ANG) troops who would be reassigned under the Air Force’s LP480 would rather retire or retrain within the ANG, according to a survey conducted by Brigadier General Michael Bruno of Colorado’s ANG. (FO)
OBSERVATION - The Air Force is one of the most corrupted, with woke, leftist leadership and willing to be the tip of the spear on this issue. If successful, it is likely the regime will attempt to take control of other components of state’s national guard units. Such a move would preempt use like TX in defending its border as well as block any state initiated military response in the event of a full blown civil war. It centralized power at the federal level and is never what the National Guard concept was designed for.
***
Outside the college encampment protests, small-scale black bloc violence is attempting to increase, reminiscent of 2016 actions that targeted Trump supporters and counter-protesters. Absent the affiliation with pro-hamas terror elements, growth potential in the near term is limited. The big effort I expect to see start in July with the RNC national convention and run at least thru the elections in Nov. Beyond if Trump wins, like in 2016/17
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
Biden / Harris Watch –
CNN to Biden, “Grocery prices are up 30%+ ... that’s a real day-to-day pain that people feel.”
Biden responds, “They have the money to spend.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Russia preparing for its annual victory parade, with substantially fewer vehicles that previous marches.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air defense shot down 17 of 20 Shahed drones overnight in the Odesa region. U/I missile struck Pryluky of Chernihiv region.
8 person wounded and widespread damage after Russian air defense repelled alleged attack in Belgorod
Ukraine drones attacked oil depot at Yurovka village of Krasnodar Krai.
Fire at SalavatNeftekhim refinery as result of drone attack. Over 1000kms from Ukraine in Bashkortostan
Russian forces pressing a wide front south of Ocheretyne to the Donetsk area.
Outlook —
Russia to continue to press its offensive in eastern Ukraine, in part in an effort to gain as much territory as possible before the Ukrainian defenses stiffen up upon receiving ammo resupply.
Expect varying degrees of the ‘deep battle’ of drones and missiles by both sides.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- biden orders halt to arms deliveries to Israel to pressure halt to Rafah operation.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The US Secretary of State Blnken publicly announces: We halted arms shipments to Israel in light of the operation in Rafah. We are currently looking at additional shipments depending on the current operation in Rafah. Israel must not carry out an operation in Rafah without a plan that takes into account the safety of the citizens in Rafah.
Biden is vowing to withhold weapons from Israel if the Jewish State goes forward with its invasion of Rafah, Hamas’ last stronghold in Gaza.
“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett in an interview released Wednesday.
“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” Biden said.
(Fox News)
***
The United Arab Emirates is expected to submit a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to recognize the “State of Palestine” this Friday, the Jerusalem Post reported Thursday morning.
According to the draft of the resolution: “Palestine is qualified for membership in the United Nations in accordance with Article 4 of the Charter and should therefore be admitted to membership in the United Nations.”
The text also affirms “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, including the right to their independent State of Palestine.”
Currently, the Palestinian delegation only has observer status in UNGA. The UAE’s resolution is expected to receive majority support in the assembly, where around 140 nations have already independently recognized a Palestinian state in resolutions that cannot be vetoed.
However, the only way to become a full member state of the UN is through a vote in the Security Council, where the United States has blocked similar advances in the past, most recently in April.
https://allisrael.com/state-of-palestine-could-be-recognized-by-un-general-assembly-on-friday
***
Israel has said it will press on to finish Hamas off in Rafah with or without US support.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ground action in Gaza was active in the north, while in the south around Rafah, activity consisted mostly of air and artillery strikes preparing the battlefield for additional pushes by IDF into the town. IDF also continues to mass ground forces for the clearing of Rafah.
Hamas launched rockets at the American-made humanitarian aid pier for Gaza. No damage or injuries reported.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli military claims to have pushed Hezbollah to “significant distances” from the border with Lebanon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday, amid an ongoing low-intensity conflict with the Iranian-backed terrorist group in the north.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army launched an air attack from the direction of the Golan Heights, targeting a building in the Damascus countryside.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Overnight, 25 Palestinians were arrested in the West Bank, including former prisoners
——— FORECAST ————————-
biden stuck a big knife in the back of Israel when after he claimed that US support was ‘ironclad’ he announced the arms embargo. The politics of the matter here in the US immediately blew up in his regime’s face from both sides of the aisle. It sends a message that biden has the back of Hamas, and not Israel. The alleged safety of civilians issue the regime is basing its decision on is just a smoke screen as Israel has gone to great lengths to set up relocation locations with food, water and medical in addition to advanced warning to evacuate.
One immediate consequence will be Israeli recalculations on use of precision guided weapons, probably to use them in support of key targets in close proximity to civilians, leaving the ‘dumb’ bombs to other targets with lower potential collateral damage.
This also has implications for the coming war against Hezbollah, shorting Israel of ammo it will need for that phase of the war.
Israel is solid in that it will go into Rafah with or without US support.
Misc of Note –
The sun has been very active this past week, kicking out at least 5 flares in the X1 to X4 range - very large explosions. Now, Sunspot AR3664 has grown so large, it now rivals the great Carrington sunspot of 1859.
The “Carrington Event” has become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture, with recent headlines stoking fears of an “internet apocalypse” if it repeats. Indeed, it could repeat. Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we’re overdue.
Carrington Event happened in September 1859 when the sunspot threw out what many estimate as an X45 (some recent estimates from review of data possibly as high as X80) flare / CME. The resulting geomagnetic storms set fire to telegraph offices and sparked auroras from Cuba to Hawaii.
On 23 July 2012, a “Carrington-class” solar superstorm (solar flare, CME, solar electromagnetic pulse) was observed, but its trajectory narrowly missed Earth.
The current sunspot cluster is earth facing, meaning that if it launches a massive flare, there is a high likelihood of impact of the associated CME. The Carrington caused havoc with the technology of the Victorian era, impact in today’s world is potentially even higher.
A hint of that impact is the March 1989 geomagnetic storm occurred as part of severe to extreme solar storms during early to mid March 1989, the most notable being a geomagnetic storm that struck Earth on March 13. This geomagnetic storm caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system. The solar flare that generated that CME was rated at an X15 level - substantially smaller than Carrington.
Arrival of CMEs can be in as little as 17 hours, though normally within 2 days.
AR3664 is visible to the eye using ordinary eclipse glasses with no magnification at all. Moreover, it is easy to project an image of this sunspot onto the sidewalk or a white screen just as Carrington did in the 19th century.
Utility companies claim that their grids have been hardened to deal with massive solar storms - I remain dubious. It would be wise to keep an eye on this growing active region while Earth is in its strike zone
BTW, at least 5 CMEs are currently projected to impact Earth from May 9 – 13
G3 – Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for May 11
An X2.2 solar flare erupted and a strong CME was produced and is likely Earth-directed, which would make 6 CMEs enroute.
I'm so ashamed of my country under Biden.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
May 8 (Reuters) - Britain is refusing to sign the World Health Organization’s (WHO) pandemic accord because the country says it would have to give away a fifth of its vaccines, the Telegraph reported on Wednesday.
According to a draft of the pandemic accord being negotiated at the WHO, richer countries should be asked to pull their weight in helping the world cope with pandemics, including reserving 20% of tests, treatments and vaccines for the WHO to distribute in poorer countries during emergencies.
OBSERVATION - Interesting development. Britain objects to giving away 20% of its vaccines to poorer nations. Britain has been a very compliant globalist nation. This casts doubt on the pandemic “treaty” ability to pass, if Britain is any signal.
There have been some unconfirmed rumors that the WHO may back off trying to push this ‘treaty’ through this year. Perhaps these rumors may be based on reports like this one where a major player appears to no longer want to play.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The weekend is approaching and there is the possibility of renewed pro-hamas protests now that operations have begun in Rafah. However, with most colleges and Universities entering summer break, the number of available sheeple to rally for these events has thinned out. So far only limited numbers of ‘large’ rallies being announced.
***
The IRS will now target individuals who threaten the U.S. government’s ‘ability to govern,’ a vague new criterion for criminal investigations. This includes protesters of ‘foreign relations’ under the guise of ‘national security,’ according to its updated operating manual.
According to the IRS, ‘national security’ refers to “The national defense or foreign relations of the U.S. and includes, within a Treasury context, U.S. economic vitality, global competitiveness, market sensitivity, and tracking terrorist assets/financial crimes.”
https://www.irs.gov/irm/part10/irm_10-009-001
OBSERVATION - Bad signs that the IRS will be expanding its tactics against Americans in the future. That’s what happens when you add 18,000 agents plus have a ton of arms and ammunition.
***
A strategy document for the National Students for Justice in Palestine (NSJP), the U.S.’s largest pro-Palestinian college campus group, called for a “unity intifada” at colleges across the country on Oct. 8, the day after Hamas’ terrorist attack in Israel, and mobilized its network of agitators for a “national day of resistance” that would “normalize” terrorism against the Jewish state.
The document, reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon, offered insights into the NSJP’s campus playbook, showing the group anticipated a conflict in the Middle East and was prepared to unleash its army of followers on college campuses across the U.S.
OBSERVATION - This documents the spread of these ‘insurrections’ across university and college campuses of late. Add to this the merger with Antifa and affiliated leftist organizations that brought with them the doctrine and origination for violent actions to promote and defend these camps and you have the bigger picture. Funds provided by the big time democrat piggy banks.
***
(FO) According to an FBI internal email obtained by WIRED magazine, FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate urged FBI employees to “continue to look for ways to appropriately use US person queries to advance the mission.”
Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) said the email “seems to show that the FBI is actively pushing for more surveillance of Americans, not out of necessity but as a default,” and the email “directly contradicts earlier assertions from the FBI during the debate over Section 702’s reauthorization.”
OBSERVATION - As the election approaches, the deep state is accelerating its intelligence collection efforts to identify US persons who may tip the apple cart so to speak. There are a number of unspeakable ways this intelligence can be used, from open arrests and prosecutions to subversive hits and arrests of the order of the J6 political prisoners.
Economy-
In an effort to ramp up antitrust enforcement, the Federal Trade Commission appear willing to bring back a 1930s-era law, the Robinson-Patman Act, from its dormancy. The law largely prohibits vendors from offering products of similar “grade and quality” to different buyers at different prices. Most notably, this prohibition prevents vendors from offering discounts to large buyers that are willing to buy high quantities of a product. The law went unenforced for decades, as courts and policymakers saw its detrimental effects for consumers and the economy at large. By bringing it back, the FTC will make the American supply chain less resilient and more vulnerable to shocks, such as the ones experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The FTC’s ramp up of Robinson-Patman enforcement started earlier this year, according to a Politico report that claimed that the agency had launched inquiries against Coca-Cola and Pepsi for supposedly offering lower prices to large retailers. Additionally, a group of 14 lawmakers led by Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren recently submitted a letter to the FTC calling for increased Robinson-Patman scrutiny by the agency.
OBSERVATION - Looks more to be govt interference than anything else. 1930’s era economy is not the same as today’s. And so far, the govts track record is to totally mess everything up that they stick their nose into.
***
(FO) Rep. John Joyce (R-PA) said a new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule regulating chemicals used in fuel refining would “cripple” the U.S. refining industry. Industry groups said the new rule that will require refiners to find alternative chemicals for fuel refining would be prohibitively expensive.
OBSERVATION - All part of the coordinated effort by the regime and its globalist puppet masters to cripple and essentially destroy our oil and gas industry. Regulate it out of existence.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
In a recent Senate Committee briefing, Dr. Robert Califf, the head of the FDA, announced proactive measures being implemented in preparation for a potential bird flu pandemic that could prove deadly to a significant portion of the infected population.
He highlighted that while the risk of transmission to humans remains low, the agency is not taking any chances, according to Daily Mail.
Dr. Califf reported that only one human case has been confirmed so far—a farm worker in Texas this past March. Despite this, the potential for the virus to mutate and spread to humans necessitates rigorous preparedness.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/here-we-go-fda-warns-potential-bird-flu/
OBSERVATION - driving this warning is the claim that in other regions the mortality rate has escalated to 25 percent, or one in every four infected individuals. But this takes data from as far back as 2008 and doesn’t account for less lethal mutations. Many are skeptical and for good reason given the response for wuhan.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., on Thursday submitted to House counsel impeachment articles alleging Joe Biden is compromising national security with his withholding of military aid to Israel. Sen. Tom Cotton proposed similar action in an X post.
OBSERVATION - Rumors that the regime is shocked at the strong pushback on it withholding of ammo from both sides of the aisle and may be seeking some way to walk it back. Many see biden’s actions an attempt to win back radical leftists/socialist college aged voters as well as radical islamics votes back. In doing so he is apparently throwing is broader, pro-israel base under the bus.
China –
Destroyer USS Halsey (DDG-97) performed a Taiwan Strait transit on Wednesday, U.S. 7th Fleet announced.
“The ship transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State.” U.S. 7th Fleet said in a statement. “Halsey‘s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to upholding freedom of navigation for all nations as a principle. No member of the international community should be intimidated or coerced into giving up their rights and freedoms.”
Halsey‘s transit is the third publicly announced Taiwan Strait transit in 2024. Destroyer USS John Finn (DDG-113), which is based in Yokosuka, Japan, performed transits through the 90-mile wide strait in January and March.
Until 6 a.m. local time on Wednesday, 6 PLAN ships and 16 PLA aircraft were sailing and flying near Taiwan, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.
https://news.usni.org/2024/05/08/destroyer-uss-halsey-sails-through-taiwan-strait
OBSERVATION - Transit by US vessels not uncommon. In the same manner the presence of Chinese ships and planes are at about the same level on a daily basis, though not reported on much lately.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Russia only had one tank in the parade yesterday - a WW2 / cold war vintage T-34.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The rumored Russian offensive towards Kharkiv may be in is initial stages. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian armed forces repelled Russian breakthrough attempt at Vovchansk direction, near Kharkiv. This resulted in the evacuation of civilian population.
A little further to the west, clashes with attacking Russian infantry at Borysivka, Pylna, Krasne villages of Kharkiv region, attempts of attacks at Hoptivka and Strilecha, Russian attack at Hatyshche were repelled.
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 10 of 10 Shahed drones overnight. Also reports of a Russian Su-25 getting shot down over Avdiivka
Russian media report a drone attack on a Russian oil refinery near Kaluga, Russia. It is the largest oil refinery in the Kaluga region of Russia and the main complex for processing commercial oil and gas condensate. The nominal oil refining capacity is 1.2 million tons per year. This refinery was already attacked on March 15th.
.
Outlook —
As Ive noted, reportedly 40,000 Russian troops have been arrayed opposite Kharkiv and prepared for an offensive to capture the city. There is considerable disagreement in some of the OSINT world and general media as to the size and nature of the recent Russian attacks. The best consensus is that these attacks are reconnaissance in force actions - hard probing of Ukraine defenses to seek weaknesses for exploitation by follow-on forces. Strategic goals appear more to attempt to freeze Ukraine forces in place and prevent any from being shifted southward where the current Russian offensive is ongoing.
Russians failed in 2022 to seize Kharkiv and were forced back to the border by the end of that year. If the 40,000 number is correct, this is still too few to effectively take the city, but substantial enough to freeze Ukraine forces in place.
Action in the Kharkiv region is to be watched.
Ground attacks further south have Russian making small gains with continued high losses on men and equipment. These losses appear to have increased over the past several days, some believe due to ammo and artillery resupply to Ukraine forces.
Russian appears to be losing more tactical ground attack aircraft. View is that resupply of MANPADS systems are reaching the front line forces, making life more hostile against these aircraft. This could result in the loss of direct air support which has aided Russia’s advance over the past few months.
Russia’s limited air superiority may become even more challenged int he coming months as F-16s begin to make their appearance. Russian aircraft may face challenges from both the ground and now the air.
Ukraine’s ‘deep war’ against soft Russian oil refineries continues to show success, as the recent hits are due to the piper cub type of modified drones flying unchallenged deep into Russia. At one time, Ukraine had shut down about 20+% of Russian refinery capability . With cheap drones, the cost/benefit has ended up hurting Russia.
Poland –
Poland’s defense minister said Thursday his country is strengthening the metal barrier along its border with Belarus to deter illegal migration.
“We are mending the barrier on the Polish-Belarusian border, we are strengthening this barrier,” Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on private Radio Zet. “The spending on these purposes is the highest in (Poland´s) history.”
Kosiniak-Kamysz said the increased presence of Polish and allied military forces in regions close to the border is also helping to tighten the eastern frontier of NATO and the European Union. That presence has been increased since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine in 2022.
OBSERVATION - Prior to the Russian / Ukraine war, Poland and Belarus almost came to blows over Belarus’ funneling ‘migrants’ into Poland. Tensions have not really subsided since.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF increases search and destroy operations in Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli delegation has left Cairo. The negotiation collapsed because Hamas refused to compromise.
Israel’s ambassador to the United States - Washington’s withholding of weapons from Tel Aviv is unfortunate and sends a “wrong message” to Hamas and Israel’s enemies
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF has begun a targeted operation in Zeitoun located in central Gaza.
The operation began with intelligence-based aerial strikes where approx. 25 terrorist targets were dismantled and eliminated including: military structures, terrorist tunnels, observation posts and sniper posts.
Ground troops are currently operating to secure this area.
The IDF has started construction of the Philadelphi Corridor, a 1km zone inside Gaza where all buildings will be demolished, that will serve as a permanent military base.
Israeli tanks captured the main road dividing the eastern and western halves of Rafah on Friday, effectively encircling the entire eastern side of the city in the southern Gaza Strip.
Over the last 24 Hours; the 162nd “Ha-Plada” Division of the Israel Defense Force has advanced into southern Gaza Strip towards Rafah, with tanks and armored vehicles supported by heavy artillery and airstrikes. Gaza sources report that it has reached several outer neighborhoods to the east of the city.
Hamas just fired at the Kerem Shalom, the main humanitarian aid crossing into Gaza. This is the fourth time this week that Hamas actively shot at Kerem Shalom. The Israeli army intercepted the missiles.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Yesterday, four members of the Hezbollah terror group’s elite Radwan Force were killed in an alleged Israeli drone strike on a car in Bafliyeh, southern Lebanon. The overnight hours has seen an uptick in cross border exchanges in fire.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says that Spain, Ireland and Slovenia plan to recognize a Palestinian state on the 21st of May.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF has resumed operations following its tactical pause. They are carving up the city sector by sector. Over a dozen Hamas tunnels have been identified and destroyed in just the first couple days of the operation. Israel is set to complete the operation without the precision munitions that minimize collateral loss of life.
Hamas sees biden’s withdrawal of support as a victory and has hardened their negotiation position for a future hostage release.
In the face of domestic blow back I suspect biden will find some way to allow some offensive weapon shipments to resume but don’t bet the farm on that just yet.
Hezbollah has not shown much interest in launching larger attacks on Israel in support of Hamas. Same goes for the “Islamic Resistance” which has largely been quiet lately. It seems Israel’s counter strike may have shaken Tehran deeper than some believe. Meanwhile, Israel continues to chisel away at Hezbollah leadership and key locations with impunity, degrading their capabilities in advance of the expected IDF ground action later this summer (IMHO).
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
The Iranian regime will build nuclear bombs should its existence be threatened, a senior Iranian official charged, weeks after an Iranian officer made similar threats.
“We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” said Kamal Kharrazi, who heads the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations and is an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
OBSERVATION - Obfuscation statement. Iran is pushing for a bomb no matter what but trying to blanket it with denials. Otherwise, Iran wouldn’t have been spending to much time and resources enriching uranium to the 90% level needed for a nuclear weapon.
Misc of Note –
After talking about the massive sunspot and a future potential Carrington event yesterday, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has since issued a G4 Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Friday, May 10, through Sunday, May 12. They have put out a G4 alert, the highest since 2004. Storms of this size have the potential to disrupt communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations. It also brings with it the possibility of auroras to be seen as far south as Alabama and Northern California.
Not a TEOTWAWKI solar storm, but one that could bring some fascinating auroras into view for many.
“In an effort to ramp up antitrust enforcement, the Federal Trade Commission appear willing to bring back a 1930s-era law, the Robinson-Patman Act, from its dormancy. The law largely prohibits vendors from offering products of similar “grade and quality” to different buyers at different prices. Most notably, this prohibition prevents vendors from offering discounts to large buyers that are willing to buy high quantities of a product. The law went unenforced for decades, as courts and policymakers saw its detrimental effects for consumers and the economy at large. By bringing it back, the FTC will make the American supply chain less resilient and more vulnerable to shocks, such as the ones experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
“OBSERVATION - Looks more to be govt interference than anything else. 1930’s era economy is not the same as today’s. And so far, the govts track record is to totally mess everything up that they stick their nose into.”
This could be one more way for Biden to sabotage the economy in the likely event Trump wins... Anything that messes up the supply chain AND causes prices to increase by “not discounting to large vendors” is insane. And it’ll leave an ugly mark on the economy.
No post today, up all night watching the aurora
Ooooooooo! KEWL!
Lucky. I saw nothing.
Spectacular clear night and very active aurora. My best views were surprisingly in town in spite of the lights.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Reports indicate Slovakia, a member of the European Union, will reject the World Health Organization’s pandemic treaty.
“Peter Kotlár, the Slovak Government Plenipotentiary for the COVID-19 pandemic, informed that Slovakia would not support the current version of the new pandemic treaty or the draft amendment to the International Health Regulations,” Radio Slovakia International reports.
The Health Ministry noted that it would not support any documents weakening Slovakia’s position as a sovereign state. Kotlár also had a meeting with WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus who stated that he respected the decision of the Slovak Republic, but also encouraged the search for possible ways to reach an agreement.
https://100percentfedup.com/another-european-country-reject-who-pandemic-treaty/
OBSERVATION - Another bump in the WHO’s quest for world domination. What was once seen as a slam dunk, Britain and now Slovakia may represent a breach of the so called ‘consensus’ now that the rubber is about to meet the road the end of this month.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Minor pro-hamas protests overnight, nothing major is reportedly planned for today.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RCPolitics and FiveThirtyEight are now showing Biden losing to Trump by the largest margin in every single battle ground state as of 5/8/24
Joe Biden’s approval has also dropped to the lowest yet for his time in office, beating his previous of 37.9 in July 2022, and the lowest in history for any US President in office on this day of their term
OBSERVATION - These are composite of multiple polls and as with all polls caution is urged in their results. However, because these are a composite, they do indicated seriously negative trends for biden. Especially in the face that trump was able to gather 80,000-100,000 supporters in dark blue NJ yesterday for the largest political gathering in the states history.
China –
Xi has re arranged the strategic levels of the military again. Partially to gain greater control over purity of support to his regime as well as to better quantify logistical growth and support to the different branches.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Logistics –
Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has lost nearly 700 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. About half the losses have been the more expensive fixed wing fighter-bombers and specialized surveillance and electronic warfare aircraft. So far that is about ten percent of the official number of Russian military aircraft, counting all the ones nominally available including those out of service in storage. The worst aspect of this is that Russia is only able to replace five percent of these losses because the companies that build aircraft are too few to produce what is needed and were believed unable to increase production because of international economic sanctions.
Meanwhile the air force continues to lose aircraft and helicopters. Since early 2022, the Russians have lost about nearly 400 fighters, fighter-bombers, and attack aircraft. Most of the fighter losses were the modern Su-30/34/35 aircraft. The attack aircraft losses consisted of Su-24s and Su-25s. A similar number of helicopters have been lost.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/202405120439.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Hatysche, Krasne, Morokhovets and Oliiynykove villages of Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Russian Group north attacked with 5 battalions with some OSINT observers suggesting that they lost at least 20% on the first day.
Russians have destroyed the Staryi Saltiv Dam in the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian Defense forces countering Russian offensive attempts at the North-west and north of Liptsy, Kharkiv region - spokesperson.
Heavy fighting at Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne, with limited gains by Russia. Increased Russian attacks on other sectors of the eastern front as well.
Ukrainian Army just shot down a Russian Su-25 close air support jet over Eastern Ukraine
On the night of May 11, GUR drones attacked the “Lukoil” oil refinery, - source of UP in GUR. Drones have also attacked refinery in Volgograd, causing a fire
Outlook —
The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has pushed several kilometers into Ukraine. Much of the territory lost was sparsely defended with the main defensive lines 10-15 km from the border. In spite of the relatively low initial Ukraine resistance, Russian forces are said to have sustained significant losses and their supply trains seriously impacted. Ukraine is starting to counter attack to halt the advance. As stated before, the likely goal of the Russian effort is to freeze Ukrainian assets in place and prevent them from redeployment to the main push at Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne.
Increasing presence of Ukrainian MANPADS is taking bigger bites out of Russian CAS, taking out another Su-25. This will eventually force Russia to rely upon lobbing bombs into target zones and less responsively support to ground troops.
Ukraine continues to hammer Russian oil refineries and associated facilities. Russia has been slow to respond with its deep warfare, possibly indicating growing shortages of missiles.
Russia expected to maintain the initiative in eastern Ukraine, however, it appears that operations are significantly slowing in part due to the initial arrival of US designated munitions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas released another propaganda video - this time showing hostage, Nadav Popplewell.
- IDF expanding operations in Rafah.
- IDF conducting raids in central and northern Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
On Friday, the Biden administration announced that the U.S. will continue transferring military arms to Israel for its ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. This decision follows a U.S. report which affirmed that Israel’s assurances of compliance with international law were “credible and reliable.”
***
Hamas have released another propaganda video - this time showing hostage, Nadav Popplewell. It is the first sign of life from 51-year-old Nadav, who was abducted from Kibbutz Nirim on October 7. The video shows Nadav with a black eye reading a short script before the video cuts to a large question mark about his fate.
***
The Biden administration has offered Israel both intelligence and supplies, if Israel will agree to end its ground invasion of Rafah, the Washington Post reported. The intelligence would help Israel locate both Hamas’ leaders and hidden tunnels, four people familiar with the offer told the Post.
***
Contrary to prior speculation, October 7th terrorist mastermind, Yahya Sinwar is not hiding in Rafah, but according to intelligence reports, is most likely in tunnels under Khan Younis, an area the IDF left about a month ago, Israeli officials told The New York Times.
Although the IDF has succeeded in eliminating Hamas’s number 3 leader, Marwan Issa, along with a several senior commanders, Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, chief of Hamas’s military wing, still remain at large.
https://worldisraelnews.com/sinwar-is-not-in-rafah-israeli-officials-report/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Following attempts by Hamas to reassemble its terrorist infrastructure and operatives in Jabaliya, the IDF has called on the civilian population of Jabaliya and the surrounding areas to temporarily evacuate to shelters in western Gaza City. IDF launching raid missions to destroy assembled Hamas forces.
Israel Defense Forces on Saturday called on additional neighborhoods of the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip to evacuate ahead of an expected widening in its ongoing military operations over the past few days.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army reports that during the past week, they bombed more than 120 Hezbollah targets and killed more than 10 militants in Lebanon.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN General Assembly adopted a resolution, recommending Security Council reconsider the matter of Palestine’s membership favorably; changing modalities for its participation in meetings
RESULT:
IN FAVOR: 143
AGAINST: 9
ABSTAIN: 25
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel restated that it will conduct its Rafah operation with or without US help. Leaflets calling for more evacuations were distributed overnight, indicating an escalation of the operation.
In other parts of Gaza, IDF is preparing to reenter areas to clean out Hamas elements that are attempting to reform in those areas. This tactic has so far been effective in continuing the depletion of Hamas fighters while minimizing the IDF forces in Gaza. Essentially, IDF luring them into traps and then taking them out in a larger scale than hunting down smaller individual/squad sized elements.
The US continues to do what it can to thwart the Israeli operation in Rafah, this time promising super secret information on the locations of key Hamas leaders. As a former intel officer, I just shake my head at this claim. Israel has highly trained and experienced intel folks right there - on the ground - and likely has far greater knowledge of who’s where than the biden regime. US assets would be largely limited to national level systems for IMINT and COMINT, lacking sorely in HUMINT. All three are not near what Israel has at hand for the operation.
Operations against Hezbollah continue as in the past. I currently do not see Hezbollah ramping up any major actions to support Hamas at this juncture.
I expect Israel to continue to expand its operations in Rafah and other parts of Gaza.
Misc of Note –
Everyone is still talking about Friday nights Severe Geomagnetic Storm. Initially Space weather put out a G4 alert, only to raise it to a G5.
The last G5 storm to hit Earth this strong was in October 2003, which sparked power outages across Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa. Since then, the economy’s digitalization has dramatically increased, which means there’s an increasing risk of grid failures and disruptions in communication networks.
This time around, some effects were noted on some power grids, but no serious affects otherwise. Satellites so far seem to have weathered the storm, particularly the massive network of Space X systems.
There is a strong possibility of another G4/5 storm again tonight as multiple CMEs are expected to hit at about the same time - anchored by a X5.8 blast yesterday.
My viewing here in the Redoubt was spectacular. If it goes G5 tonight, well worth trying to view. Check spaceweather.com for updates.
Thanks for your work, Godzilla.
What would happen to us if we spit on a Hamas supporter/protester? Would the full power of the law be used against us like they're trying to against Trump?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Professor Bill McGuire is a well-known vulcanologist and climate scientist who doesn’t care much for humanity. He tweeted out a scathingly brilliant idea if you’re in the mortuary business or work as a grave digger.
“If I am brutally honest, the only realistic way I see emissions falling as fast as they need to, to avoid catastrophic #climate breakdown, is the culling of the human population by a pandemic with a very high fatality rate.” https://t.co/hzga69EhV3
— Bill McGuire (@ProfBillMcGuire) May 11, 2024
OBSERVATION - He later deleted the tweet saying that too many people were taking it the wrong way. Pretty sad mea culpa. This depopulation theme is well documented among the WEF types and goals. The infamous (now extinct) Georgia Guidestones called for reducing the global population to 500 million. Hence the recurring belief that the wuhan mRNA jab was an initial tool to begin the process.
Perhaps he should just shut up and study volcanos.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Andy NGO reports on “X”- Online far-left accounts are sharing a virtual flyer calling for May 15 to be a day to riot for Gaza.
“It’s time to escalate,” the flyer reads. The extremists want the riots to be politically destabilizing to the U.S.
OBSERVATION - Now that school is out for the summer, Antifa et al has lost a lot of mind-numbed students for their campus protests. This call out for more violent “protests” appears to be an effort to ramp up and retain the initiative the college protests provided. I expect local events at this stage, more violent in the Antifa heartlands, and less so in the soft liberal areas. Monitoring to seen if things change between now and then.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
Economy-
CPI numbers are expected to be out Wednesday May 15. Reporters are noting that the govt is playing with the numbers. in this case, they are removing coffee from the index. What you may not have realized is there was significant increase in coffee prices from March - May, 2024. Since September 2023, coffee prices are up a 78%.
From January 1st of this year through the high in April when this change was announced, coffee prices gained 35%.
***
(Bloomberg) — Roughly one in 37 homes are now considered seriously underwater in the US and that share is much higher across a swath of southern states, according to data out Thursday.
Nationally, 2.7% of homes carried loan balances at least 25% more than their market value in the first few months of the year. That’s up from 2.6% in the previous quarter, according to the first-quarter 2024 US Home Equity & Underwater Report from ATTOM, a real estate data firm.
OBSERVATION - Saw this happen back in 2008 with my home at the time, though not near the 25% level. Totally upended the housing market for a couple of years. Not a good sign.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
There are reports surfacing that the DNC is considering moving a lot of the convention on-line to avoid protests/rioting from the ascending, pro-Hamas flank of the party. This could be done in part by minimizing live programming and openings for protest in Chicago’s United Center. This would mean moving party business, such as rules and platform votes, off the floor and denying would-be demonstrators a chance to seize on contentious debates.
OBSERVATION - Both conventions are in dark blue cities, so the fuel for riots is already at hand. I Chicago’s case, not only is the wrath of pro-hamas elements on the rise, but the standard black community is highly agitated due to the preferential treatment illegals are getting. Black community leaders have warned of protests for several month now.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden still trying to find ways to walk back his decision to block congressionally approved arms shipments to Israel in the face of intense pushback from rank and file democrats who are in general pro-Israeli.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been fired. Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister, and a longtime economist, replaces him.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The General Staff of Ukraine reporting on the status of the fighting in the Kharkiv region - Combat operations continue in the directions Pylna - Lukyantsi, Pylna - Hlyboke, Pylna - Oliynikove, Murom - Buhruvatka. Russian troops carrying out assaults in the directions of Strilecha - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Lukyantsi, Murom - Staritsa, Pletenivka - Tyche. - Fighting continues for the border town of Vovchansk.
The evacuation of people in the Kharkiv region has been going on for more than two days, - the Regional Emergency Service. Currently, more than 4,500 residents have been evacuated from the border settlements of Bogodukhiv, Chuhuiv and Kharkiv districts
Ukrainian Sources are reporting that overnight several additional brigade-sized elements of the Russian ground forces, consisting of thousands of troops as well as hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, crossed the northeastern Ukraine border utilizing the multiple bridgeheads that had already been established over the last 48-72 hours.
Outlook —
The new offensive in Kharkiv province is not going well for Ukraine at the moment. However, much of the Russian land grab consists of lightly screened border areas. As noted before, one of the key reasons for the attack is to freeze Ukraine forces the region and prevent movement to the current main offensive further to the south.
However, analysts have noted other potential reasons for this attack. The Siverskyi Donets River is the most prominent geographical feature in the immediate area and poses as a major obstacle that divides Kharkiv from land to the east that stretches to Kupyansk and Dvorichna
If this Russian offensive is for real and this is not a feign to draw off already stretched Ukrainian forces, the area stretching from the Siverskyi Donets to the Oskil River could be what Russia is after.
Another goal may be to get within the 25 km radius of Kharkiv. At this distance, conventional artillery can range the town. To date, Kharkiv has been hammered by missiles, drones and glide bombs. Getting within tube artillery range will add significantly to the attack.
Much of the recent Russian gains have been lateral - joining the two assaults together. Ukraine defenses have stiffened with counter attacks seeking to slow the advance.
Current assessments by analysts indicate that the current Russian forces being employed are insufficient to take Kharkiv, but the Russian push there still strategically significant as a means to achieve other goals in Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Intense fighting in N Gaza
- Rafah campaign continues to increase in intensity.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israel Defense Force has announced that a Joint-Operation with Shin Bet last Friday resulted in the Elimination of Naim Gol, one of the Member of Hamas’s Shari Battalion who was Responsible for the Guarding of Corporal Noa Marciano, a Soldier in the IDF who was Kidnapped by Hamas during the October 7th Massacre and then Killed at some point by Doctors at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense Israeli airstrikes on northern Gaza as IDF presses attacks against Hamas elements trying to reconstitute there.
Mujahideen Brigades - We are engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces with appropriate weapons east of Jabalia camp, north of the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Armed forces are sending new reinforcements in an attempt to penetrate into the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip
IDF continues to expand operations in Rafah. Large airstrikes hitting targets at the center of the town.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Army Radio reports 3 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Branit in the Western Galilee.
Hezbollah says it launched an attack with a swarm of drones on a military site in northern Israel. Two explosive-laden drones launched from Lebanon struck an area near the northern community of Beit Hillel earlier this morning, the military says. The Israeli army says the blasts sparked a fire which was extinguished a short while later.There are no injuries.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM intercepted Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF operations in the Jabalia Camp, N Gaza to continue to ramp up as they have managed to trap a sizable Hamas force. Israeli tactics, once again, is to pull out and give Hamas et al an opportunity to crawl out of their holes and try to reform. IDF surveillance catches all of this then strikes back quickly at the now exposed Hamas elements. IDF has used this tactic several times with good success.
Rafah ops continue to expand in spite of biden’s demands for it to stop. Netanyahu called biden’s bluff on this one. It looks like deliveries will resume with the tag of not to use against Rafah. I think Israel is “Ok” with that as they have sufficient for Rafah anyway and need to stock up for the Hezbollah campaign.
Action by Hezbollah and the “Islamic Resistance” is not expected to be significant in the near future.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani claimed on Friday that Iran possesses nuclear weapons, despite the country’s formal policy under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This statement came shortly after the UN’s atomic watchdog highlighted Iran’s capacity to produce multiple nuclear bombs, Fox News reported.
OBSERVATION - More likely rhetoric than reality at this stage.
Markets will factor in how long it'll take the public to figure out they've een conned...
Most people I know have lost so much faith in anything comes out of DC/MSM, that "how long" may well be measured in milliseconds.
Good point.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The World Health Organization (WHO) has watered down some provisions of its pandemic agreements ahead of the upcoming World Health Assembly on May 27. Critics in the United States, however, say the changes don’t do enough to address the concerns over the policy.
The release of the latest draft of the amendments, dated April 17, are the first public update on the IHR draft, which was initially made public early 2023.
“In most areas, and for all of those which most concerned us from a legal perspective, the interim draft reflects a major retreat by the WHO Working Group from the text of the original proposals,” write English solicitors Ben and Molly Kingsley in an April briefing paper regarding the new amendments.
Some WHO-watchers remain wary, however.
“Practically all the bad things are still there,” Dr. Meryl Nass, a U.S.-based physician and vocal critic of the WHO agreements, told The Epoch Times.
“The language is gentler, but since there is so much to be decided later it is not clear the gentler language is meaningful,” Dr. Nass said.
“My best guess is that they are desperate to get something passed, so the options are likely to be either a vanilla version of the treaty … or a delay. But they fear delay because people are waking up.”
OBSERVATION - The pandemic ‘treaty’ is hitting pushback in what once was thought to be a cakewalk. I share a similar opinion as the article - the WHO is now desperate to get this thing passed in order to get the camel’s nose under the tent so to speak, with warm, fuzzy language that can be modified at a later date without the intense scrutiny the treaty is receiving today. Many of the “concessions” could also be quickly reversed in the face of another plandemic.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
A volunteer for the Trump campaign headquarters in Limestone County, Alabama was brutally attacked Saturday afternoon while she was leaving the premises.
The Alabama Republican Party identified the victim as Tara Johnson.
AL.com reports Johnson was in her vehicle when the attacker “grabbed her by the hair, repeatedly punched her in the face and slammed her head against the door of her truck.”
OBSERVATION - Though still under investigation, such attacks are commonly encouraged by leftist, Antifa related sources across the inter webs. I expect that more assaults like this will become more common as November approaches.
Economy-
Housing numbers are coming in and they are not looking good. The combination of high prices and equally high mortgage rates have driven buyers out of the market. Evidence that the mean home price has dropped to $400K, lowest since 2021, interest rates now pushing past the 7% mark.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
More continued rumbling about the avian flu being the next great pandemic. They are telegraphing their next move folks.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Biden campaign has a new explanation for its current position in the 2024 election: The polls are fake.
That doesn’t mean every poll is correct, but there’s no way to know which ones are in the meantime. Polling aggregates have become popular for a reason, and while the Biden campaign wants to call the Times survey an outlier, Trump is still up in the overall aggregate as well, which would portend an electoral blowout given the dynamics of the electoral college.
OBSERVATION - biden camp is taking these polls seriously, suggesting that the fundamentals behind them match what they are seeing and don’t want the public to be informed about them. As I’ve noted before, many of these polls are designed to shape public perception and thought.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden administration is under fire after reportedly withholding intelligence on the locations of senior Hamas officials to pressure Israel into giving up its planned invasion of Rafah.
Illegal Immigration –
The northern border of the US continues to see record numbers of captured illegals. For example, from April 28 to May 4, one week, Border Patrol agents apprehended 492 illegal aliens. That was more than the total apprehensions for all of 2021. In 2021, the total number for the entire fiscal year was 365.
Chief Patrol Agent Garcia said that during the week before that, Champlain Border Patrol agents apprehended 220 illegals. It was “the highest number ever encountered in a single week in Swanton Sector history.”
OBSERVATION - Illegal apprehensions have been buried by other news items lately. Still at record levels across both border regions. With improving weather conditions, I expect that the northern border will get even more action in the coming months.
China –
Military analysts are suggesting that Chinas increasing presence in the seas around Taiwan have a specific goal to lull the Taiwanese military into a false sense of normalcy so that when China decides to implement a blockade of the Island, they can do so quickly and with a minimum of initial response from Taiwan. The blockade theory is rising as the most likely course of action that China will take against Taiwan, posing the least risk to the mainland and preserving forces from an allied assault.
Phillipines –
China is deploying many ships to blockade Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc) ahead of a Philippine civilian resupply mission on Tuesday that sends supplies to fishermen operating in the area, which is inside the Philippine exclusive economic zone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
RUMINT –
Reports coming out that Kharkiv authorities pocketed much of $200 million that was designated to construct defensives towards the border regions.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 18 Shahed drones overnight over western Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that another Su-25 was shot down in the Donetsk region. This is the 3rd claimed downing of a Russian fighter jet in recent weeks.
Over all, reported combat events have doubled over averages from last month.
Russian forces continue to consolidate gains in Kharkiv provence, where it is estimated that Russian has committed 30,000 troops to the assault.
The Head of the Sumy Region of northeastern Ukraine has ordered an immediate evacuation for the towns of Vorozhba and Bilopillya near the border with the Kursk Region of Russia, due to a significant increase over the last 24 hours in cross-border shelling and the possibility of Russian ground forces soon entering the region.
New reports that Ukraine was aware of the build up of forces opposite of Kharkiv within Russia over the past months, but were prohibited from striking these troop concentrations with western munitions by the US and others. This created ‘sanctuary’ areas that facilitated the current Russian attacks.
This morning, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian ammunition dump outside of Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast. Loud secondary explosions could be heard throughout the area.
Ukrainian Su-24M/Mr type aircraft launched 6 Storm Shadow type winged missiles from their nearest deployment zone, 267 km away, targeting the Russian air defense’s 3rd Radiotechnical Regiment at the Ai-Petri Mountain in occupied Crimea.
According to reports, this strike resulted in significant damage to the base and also killed the commander of the Russian military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov.
Outlook —
Things are looking bleaker in the Kharkiv region. Russian have taken a pretty large chunk of land. Now if the information is correct, Ukraine could face another assault in the NE corner of the country toward the city of Sumy. Both Sumy and Kharkiv were likely undermanned with forces shifted to the south. Russia may well be able to maintain the captured territory in part since they now have considerably more troops in theater than when the invasion first began.
If the stories of corruption in the Kharkiv region are correct, things are even worse.
Russian losses are correspondingly high but then the Ukraine losses are high as well. Are Kharkiv and Sumy at risk of falling - no, but the territorial losses place Ukraine at a disadvantage and my cause western allies to loosen up restriction on attacking Russia proper with the munitions supplied. Already Britain has given the go for its munitions.
Europe / NATO General –
The Estonian government is “seriously” discussing the potential deployment of Estonian troops in non-combat roles in Ukraine, said Madis Roll, the national security advisor to the president, in an interview with Breaking Defense published on May 13.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Today is Israel’s 76th Independence Day.
- Tank heavy units penetrate into the central portions of Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
UN admits Gaza death toll wrong, with almost 50% fewer women, children killed than previously reported. Blames ‘fog of war’ for the incorrect count - ignoring that they were fed these numbers by Hamas.
***
Hamas’ armed wing Al Qassam Brigades said on Monday it had lost contact with militants guarding four Israeli hostages, including U.S.-Israeli citizen Hersh Golberg-Poline, reportedly due to Israeli bombardment of Gaza over the past 10 days.
***
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that President Joe Biden’s administration did not view the killings of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel in its war with Hamas as a genocide.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel launches a renewed offensive into Eastern Rafah.
Israeli tanks have entered the neighborhoods of Al-Jneina, Al-Salam and Al-Brazil.
A few rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip at the southern city of Ashkelon
IDF engaged in fighting pockets of Hamas in the Gaza city area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery hit Hezbollah positions in S Lebanon overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Numerous Israeli security force operations throughout the West Bank overnight
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt is considering to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Israel over Rafah operation, Egyptian officials told WSJ
——— FORECAST ————————-
Rafah operation will continue to intensify in spite of US meddling.
IDF operations against reformed Hamas elements in N and Central Gaza to continue as well.
Conflict along the border with Lebanon looks to continue at current levels. No evidence that Hezbollah is coming to the aid of Hamas.
Democrats have a way of ignoring their own thuggery. Guess having the press in their pocket helps with that ...
Your observation about China is right on... being able to blockade Taiwan would be a bigger threat to the world than an invasion. It would hit all of us where it hurts most: in our almost insatiable need for high end chips...
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