Remeber Bucha.
Posted on 09/28/2023 7:29:53 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Remeber Bucha.
“Ukraine has accomplished anything of value this year?”
Emptying the Soviet Military storage yards, and filling the Russian graveyards.
Meanwhile the Russians are pounding the crap out of Odessa, which even the Western (read: Ukraine supporting) press is having to admit.
MONDAY: Odessa port hit in major Russian attack: Ukraine military/i>
MONDAY: 2 killed, serious infrastructure damaged as Russian missile, drone strikes target Odessa
TUESDAY: Putin fires devastating attack on Odessa with suicide drones and supersonic missiles
The port area: Before and After
A lot of "stuff" is gone.
Putting out the steaming wreckage in Odessa earlier this week
“Russia deployed two ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, one in the Sea of Azov. There are no missile carriers among them. This was reported by the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Telegram on Thursday, September 28.”
https://ukranews.com/en/news/958295-russia-removes-all-missile-carriers-from-black-sea
A week ago, before the strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, the norm was more like six and six, with several missile carriers all the time.
Reportedly Video.
Still early to know if / what was hit.
https://twitter.com/paolo20665634/status/1707488889626046749
“You keep showing the same picture over and over.” (the Burning Black Sea Fleet HQ, about to be hit by another cruise missile)
Notice a distinction between the photos we posted - the Ukrainians hit Military targets, and the Russians hit civilians (which is still a war crime, even if Russian leaders want to do it).
The blast in that video looks impressively large (it is), partly because the flash is reflected by smoke already in the air.
That could indicate a target already burning from a previous strike, or possibly a target protected with smoke generators to obscure it, as is the Kerch Bridge.
your map is wildly inaccurate. there have been no Orc gains since Jan 1
They didn’t “occupy” that territory, they merely attempted to capture it, and encountering too much resistance fell back. ...The Russian lines have held.
The Orcs were wiped out and then fell back in disorder. With significant loses of the best troops. With out the “resistance”, the Orcs would have occupied northern Ukraine since that was part of their stated goal.
the Surokin line has been penetrated at all 3 layers in the Robotnye-Verove direction; Orc lines collapsing
was that image taken before the British troops bailed out?
“Russian tank losses are now at 2/3rds of their working / on-hand tank force at the start of the conflict.”
That is even by the most conservative estimation method, that Oryx uses (2329 Russian tank kills verified by open source photographic or video evidence). By the reporting of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (which is usually considered a high end estimate), Russia has burned through about 1 1/2 times as many tanks as they operated Nationwide at the start of the conflict (4,679, compared to 3,300 that were in the total Russian force structure (all Active and Reserve Units) in January of 2022). Actual Russian tank losses are likely somewhere between those two estimates.
“I have no awareness of how many storage tanks have been reactivated or how many have been repaired and returned to service.”
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts have been monitoring the satellite photos of Russian storage depots for their old inactive tanks, as well as the types seen on the battlefield and among Russian losses over time. The consensus is that over half of the old vehicles in storage that could be restored, already have been - maybe 2/3rds (can’t see what parts have been stripped out from inside the remaining ones from space).
Roughly speaking, to keep up with the attrition rates, Russia has been using about ten from storage, for every one newly produced. So when the inventory runs out, they are in for a shocking readjustment (during next calendar year, at current rates).
“This effectively eliminates the possibility of Russia being able to successfully attack NATO.
I suspect that this will create a turning point in the strategic value of this war.”
That is the kind of end state that would best secure the peace, and best justify the expense being invested by NATO. When we finish transferring effectively all of the old Soviet arsenal from Russian storage yards to Ukrainian scrapyards, NATO will be significantly more secure.
Cruise missile Elf crewman (typically British) as supposed to magic out prior to impact, in a puff of fairy dust - unless they are overwhelmed by the awesome stronkness of Russian Air Defense fairies.
So far, I’m not seeing “mainstream” ukraine war sites report an attack on Kerch.
Anton Gerashchenko reported “Crimean Telegram” channels were reporting a strike in Kerch. He is usually reliable. But he is just reporting what others have said.
I’m doubting an attack as of now...
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1707470397040410964
“ I’m doubting an attack as of now...”
Maybe a Russian industrial accident, or an incident of unsafe munitions handling.
Russians are famously good at those.
It is reported that the Orks shot down their own military aircraft over Tokmak using the S-300 air defense system.
“🔥BREAKING 🔥
LOL, Russian Air Defense System S-300 SHOT DOWNED own aircraft near Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region “
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1707523191344648347
Those are the best kind of shoot-downs, and the Russians are good at it.
Oil price is way up in September (Brent $95, Urals $79), and the ruble has been stable (96.5 to th dollar).
” justify the expense being invested by NATO”
The NATO deadbeats? Most of them aren’t spending the 2% they pledged for their defense budgets. Again it’s good old Uncle Sucker doing the heavy lifting.
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