Posted on 08/25/2023 6:40:34 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Is China’s High Investment-Led Growth Model Sustainable?
By City A.M - Aug 24, 2023 (https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Is-Chinas-High-Investment-Led-Growth-Model-Sustainable.html )
“-China’s property market, which constitutes 30% of its GDP, is facing significant challenges with major firms like Evergrande defaulting, leading to widespread economic concerns.
-Beyond real estate, structural issues such as a saturated investment-led growth model and low domestic consumption are impeding sustainable economic growth.
-China’s aging population, the result of its one-child policy, along with a potential shift from a high investment model to consumption indicate declining growth rates for the foreseeable future.
Exports have slumped, growth has stalled, and the economy even slipped into deflation. The youth unemployment figures have become so bad that the government has stopped publishing them... (what) they demonstrate is that China’s high growth model over the past few decades has run out of steam.
... (China’s property market) makes up around 30 percent of its GDP. Private and state property developers have helped drive the largest spate of urbanization in history, with the proportion of the population living in cities rising from 36 percent in 2000 to over 65 percent last year. This generated a huge bubble, with property developers taking on big debts to build enough houses.
...Investment currently makes up between 40-45 percent of (China’s) GDP compared to an average of around 20-25 percent among the rest of the world. But now, the economy is essentially saturated with productive physical assets (overcapacity).
... In order to generate sustainable growth over the longer term, the Chinese government is trying to lift domestic consumption, which currently makes up a very small proportion of GDP. In the US, for example, consumption makes up nearly 70 percent of GDP, while it tops 63 percent in the UK. Chinese consumption, in contrast, makes up less than 40 percent of GDP. “It is the wish of the Chinese government to shift from old style, industrial production and fixed investment to consumption,”
... it would be “very hard to stimulate consumption meaningfully”... China’s artificially devalued currency... makes imports for domestic consumers more expensive than they would be... More broadly, China’s aging population also poses significant threats to its future growth. China’s population has peaked, and after the one-child policy, it is deeply top-heavy. It will likely be a major constraint on its ability to grow in the future.
“Claims about depleted russian reserves, reinforcements and forces for rotation are incorrect.”
(Maybe they are pulling some from the Kherson front, or Crimea)
ISW, 24 August 2023:
“Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk reported that Russian forces are conducting additional lateral redeployments from Kherson Oblast to the frontline in Zaporizhia Oblast, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have further degraded Russian defensive lines in the area.”
...”Humenyuk’s reporting supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russia’s lack of operational reserves will force the Russian command to conduct additional redeployments as Ukrainian counteroffensive operations continue to degrade defending Russian forces in several sectors of the front (to pin them down, or exploit gaps).”
Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
One of the Russian cemeteries in Samara, which belongs to Wagner PMC, has undergone radical changes. “The crosses and wreaths have been piled up, machinery is working, and the graves have been flattened to the ground,” local residents said.
Reportedly, the whole territory is going to be poured with concrete. And a black pyramid is supposed to appear on the place of each grave. But for now, the cemetery is simply being destroyed.
In April, terrorist Prigozhin visited this place to unveil a monument dedicated to the victims of the “special military operation”.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1695062129890480586
video with subtitles
Pringles had surely ‘fallen’ from power.
Gone and forgotten.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Friday requiring all mercenaries to swear allegiance to Russia, a revelation that comes on the heels of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s reported death.”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Friday requiring all mercenaries to swear allegiance to Russia”
Aren’t mercenaries still technically illegal in Russia?
It’s like they don’t even pretend to be a normal country anymore.
Bullying? In a war, hummm
Feelings hurt, maybe get a puppy
Turkey update:
Since Erdogan was re-elected a few months back, he put in a whole new economic team, who quickly doubled interest rates (from 8.5% on 24 June, to 17.5% today). It will take a few months for the effects to work through the economy, but inflation should calm and the Turkish Lira stabilize.
Well, the BRICS meeting is over.
The big thing that came out, is that they agreed to expand their membership to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina.
Aside from the obvious challenge that presents, to find a catchy new acronym for their name, it also will likely make it harder for them all to agree on anything in the future.
They will have more significant oil producers, and they all have an interest in trade and investment with China. But it will likely make it harder to unify that group into an anti-Western or anti-US coalition.
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