Posted on 07/06/2023 6:09:38 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
“About time (sending cluster munitions) when thought. Next year?”
They could have some there next week by air, and a mountain of them by ship in a month (or two, based on priority).
Artillery shells are flowing - they just have to pull this stock number item from the warehouse, instead of the other. No training needed, no other equipment or support of any kind. Logistically, they (DPICM) are just like any other Artillery shell or HIMARS rocket.
Agreed it should be that simple, will it happen that fast is the question.
Milair or contract airlift could deliver a large quantity quickly as you said for delivery to immediate need sections of the front. Let’s see how quickly the bureaucracy can move
Valuations of a currency is an interesting thing, many factors can influence it. Early on the central bank of Russia did a lot of manipulation, not sure what all they are doing now, but without factual data on the actual economic underlying factors a “true” valuation is hard.
The numbers that Russia is releasing, like China are always suspect, hell so are ours. Employment, work participation, inflation, GDP…. are numbers created by govt entities so color doubtful on their accuracy. Politics always plays a part, but in russias case I would say that level of involvement is much higher.
In the case of Russia, and China one has to be large part Sherlock Holmes to figure out the “real “ numbers
Russia is releasing some numbers but not as many as they used to.
Factors that seem obvious, lower oil revenue(not to be confused with lower oil sales), higher military expenditures due to invasion, effects of sanctions on production(sanction busting is a real thing, but generally those items come with a premium price), costs for loss of production and repairs for the “smoking” accidents that are happening across the federation, and inflation which is high and getting higher all have effects
Russia had a fairly large rainy day fund, but even by their reporting they are blowing through that pretty quickly
Would be fascinating to see the real numbers of production, inflation, tax revenues, expenditures
Putin is a master economist
“Early on the central bank of Russia did a lot of manipulation, not sure what all they are doing now”
They did use their financial reserves to support the ruble in the first several months of the war, but they stopped doing that later last year, to conserve their declining reserves.
The ruble has been gradually weakening all year, but accelerated in June, and then accelerated a bit more toward the end of June. It has been weakening pretty similarly against the dollar, euro, yuan and rupee.
The bottom line is that the ruble has lost all of the strength that it temporarily had early in the war due to Central Bank manipulation and pretty strong currency controls, and is now in negative territory from before the war, and on the way down. It was around 80 to the dollar just before the war, strengthened close to 50, and is now more than 90.
80 (just before the invasion) was weak, by historical norms. The ruble was around 30 to dollar before the 2014 invasion, and weakened to around 60 after that. Then in 2020, it dropped to around 75 in 2020.
After the ruble lost half its value following the 2014 invasion, Russia embarked on a very aggressive program to build up its financial reserves as a war chest for the current invasion (lesson learned). Half of those saved up reserves (~$300 Billion) were frozen in one fell swoop by Western authorities, and Russia has already burned through more than half of the ~$300 Billion they had left. Their burn rate has accelerated this year so far, and they seem on track to exhaust them by Christmas.
In terms of policy options, Russia has pretty much already used up the quiver of normal options to support the currency, and some draconian options as well. Toward the end of this year, they are on track to run too low on financial reserves to use them to defend the currency, even if chose to. Then the ruble will be very vulnerable to attack or collapse. The budget would no longer be able to be buffered by drawing on reserves, and they are likely to accelerate expanding the ruble supply (printing money) to cover their spending (Hello Argentina)
Since that is so predictable watching the draw down of their reserves, markets can anticipate that risk, and players will likely make efforts to reduce their risk by backing away from the ruble where they can. Capital will likely continue to try to flee from Russia to greener pastures, and the yuan will likely continue to become the de facto currency for business in Russia.
the yuan will likely continue to become the de facto currency for business in Russia.
—
And now that Putin has withdrawn the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 5th Combined Arms Army from the Far East where they guarded the Sino-Russo border ... Xi Jinping says: everything is going according to my Plan.
“Xi Jinping says: everything is going according to my Plan.”
It is falling into his lap.
Putin did that.
Because Speedy is traveling today and may or may not update this thread, I’m going to go ahead and post my July 6the report below.
Ukraine: military situation update - July 6, 2023
Extras:
——> What DPICM Cluster Munitions Are And Why Ukraine Wants Them So Bad <——
Cluster munitions are highly controversial, but Ukraine has its reasons why they can be crucial to unseating deeply entrenched Russian forces.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-dpicm-cluster-munitions-are-and-why-ukraine-wants-them-so-bad
==
——> Ukraine Situation Report: Zelensky Blasts Bulgarian President Over Opposition To Arming Kyiv <——
Irked over Bulgarian President Rumen Radev’s refusal to arm Ukraine, Zelensky lashed out with a sarcasm-laced diatribe.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-zelensky-blasts-bulgarian-president-over-opposition-to-arming-kyiv
==
——> Russia Now Using Parachute Flares In Attempts To Down U.S. MQ-9 Reapers <——
The use of parachute flares launched from Su-35 fighters against MQ-9s signals a change in Russian drone harassment tactics.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-using-parachute-flares-in-attempts-to-down-u-s-mq-9-reapers
[ Death Sentence | Trap | Russians Make a Catastrophic Mistake ]
••Day 498: Jul 06
Today there are a lot of updates from the Kherson region.
After conducting a long-requested missile strike on the Ukrainian bridgehead, Russians slowly realized that it did not change the situation, and Ukrainians continued conducting their planned operations.
In order to rectify their failure, Russian Air Force decided to bomb the area with FAB-500 air dropped bombs.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the pilots did not do a great job, and the bombs missed the target, which is why this operation was almost completely omitted by the media space.
In the meantime, Ukrainians continued accumulating forces and equipment to resist Russian assaults more efficiently.
Since it was happening right after a series of strikes, the Russian command assumed that Ukrainians were desperately pumping soldiers in order to compensate for the losses and retain the bridgehead, which is why Russians sent just one T-72 tank to target and demolish what was left of Ukrainians and Ukrainian positions.
However, the estimations could not be further from the truth.
Ukrainian reconnaissance teams quickly noticed the advancing Russian tank and communicated the information to the ATGM crews, which rapidly set out to meet the attackers.
The moment the Russian tank assumed its firing position, it immediately received a Ukrainian missile.
The tank and the crew survived and started running away, but they promptly received the second missile in the rear, and the tank got critical damage and drove off the road.
After receiving a clear sign that Ukrainians did not lose their combat capability, the Russian command started planning a new attack.
Soon, Russian forces launched extensive artillery preparation on the eastern part of the Ukrainian bridgehead.
Such actions opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to enter the region and start conducting offensive actions.
For this purpose, Russian reportedly used several armored fighting vehicles and a tank.
The tank reportedly provided fire support from a distance to minimize the chance of losing yet another tank.
Russian sources immediately reported that deployment was successful, and all Russian assault units started confidently pushing the Ukrainian out.
At first, Ukrainians were rapidly losing ground, however, the tide unexpectedly shifted.
The moment Russians got close to the bridge, they faced overwhelming artillery fire.
Russians realized that they got trapped in a fire bag and attempted to make a breakthrough.
This risky move was assigned to the punitive Storm-Z detachment, mostly consisting of prisoners, while soldiers from the 205th and 61st Brigades were clearing the houses.
The risk did not pay off, and after incurring substantial losses, Russian forces started retreating.
The Russian command decided to double down and reinforced the units on the ground and opened the second major axis of advance.
The main assumption was that if Ukrainians are pushing east of the bridge, then their positions are weaker west of the bridge.
Russian sources reported that the Russian operation stalled, and the troops found themselves in a very difficult situation.
Later Ukrainian sources reported that radio intercepts revealed that they refused to make a suicidal push without support from the air, preferably bombing the area with FAB-500.
Soon, it became evident that the strike would not happen, and Russian forces started gradually retreating while receiving ATGMs in the back.
Overall, Ukrainians successfully lured Russians into a trap, where Russians exposed their flanks to the fire from the other side of the river.
Russian analysts started blaming the Russian command for poor planning and the subsequent unsuccessful operation.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister commented on the situation and stated that in the aftermath of heavy fights in the vicinity of the Antonivsky Bridge, Ukrainian forces managed to inflict substantial losses on the enemy.
More precisely, that day Ukrainians eliminated 50 Russian soldiers, 23 armored fighting vehicles and armored cars, and multiple boats and drones.
The successful draining of Russian resources in this direction is contributing to the gradual depletion of the Russian forces.
Once it reaches a critical level, Ukrainians will make the next move and advance on Oleshky.
••Bakhmut:
UA continues to advance in Klischiivka direction.
Berkhivka region north of Bakhmut:
Russians still hold high ground.
==
Only Biden’s signature remains to approve ATACMS transfer in next year’s budget. Ukraine needs those missiles now.
Cluster munitions approval scheduled for next week. Will be used to break through Russia’s defense lines.
Human Rights Watch hysterically condemns giving cluster munitions to Ukraine because they could be used on civilians, but said nothing about Russia targeting and killing Ukrainian civilians.
==
POW exchange returned a lot of UA soldiers but they were in poor condition: sick, starved, beaten, and threatened while in Russian hands.
==
Sources including Oryx now show the UA has more tanks than the Russians: 1.5k to 1.4k. All combined, Russia is losing resources while Ukraine is gaining.
••To hold the counteroffensive of Ukraine, Russia had to transfer troops to the front from the border with China (!) - British intelligence
The 58th Combined Arms Army was sent to the Zaporizhia region, which is “responsible for the security” of the Caucasian region of Russia.
In the Velyka Novosilka area there is the 5th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation and the Marine Corps, usually based 7000 km away as a counterbalance to the Chinese army.
[ Xi Jinping is all smiles. ]
==
Maxx Pro American armoured vehicle was hit by the anti- tank missile. Crew survived. Thanks god those vehicles are so robust.
==
In the event of a direct conflict with Russia or China, the United States will have enough stocks of precision-guided weapons for hours or days - Wall Street Journal
“Shortly after that (the US) will run out of other vital supplies.”
I guess we all need more production of ammunition and weapons.
Unfortunately there are still threats in 21st century from stupid Russia and China regimes.
==
Shows image of 4 or 5 AKs strapped together an mounted on a swivel tripod: Don’t know if it is precise but looks interesting
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan & Prigozhin agrees.
Russia is a 14th century feudal empire running a gas station with nukes in the backroom.
The supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine will be a temporary measure while the US expands its capacity to produce conventional shells which is expected next spring.
Rheinmetall seems like they are ramping up faster than the US, and several other manufacturers are also building capacity. Industry sees solid signals that production over the next 5-10 years is a good investment, and are taking steps to satisfy the market. DPICM munitions will help fill the gap until then.
Here's a recent twitter post from NOEL:
SBU unit 'A' shared a compilation of destroyed Russian equipment.
In total 2 tanks, 2 Akatsiya 2S3, 3 Giatsint-B 2A36, 2 armored vehicles, an EW-station Pole-21, 25 cars, 3 firing positions, 13 fortifications and one warehouse were destroyed. In addition, 72 Russians were reportedly killed.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1677326916817125376
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1677359975625105420
Here's some guesswork:
These will only be fired out of tubes with GPS capability.
The launch coordinates and impact coordinates for every firing will be captured in a database.
After the war is over, the impact locations can be swept for any unexploded bomblets.
So you two are colluding on your daily propaganda? 🤣
Graphic is wrong.
The DPICM 155mm M864 munition comes in two varieties: one has 48 M42 grenades and the other has 24 of the more powerful M48 grenades
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