Posted on 07/01/2023 4:51:01 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Kadyrov is missing.
“Bakhmut is still liberated!”
Ukrainian forces re-entered Bakhmut City about two weeks ago, and have been advancing slowly through the city since then. They are back to around the railroad. They have been advancing more rapidly around the Northern and Southern flanks, in an envelopment (up to a kilometer per day).
“Kadyrov is missing”
Stock Tip: Buy Popcorn! The whole popcorn supply chain. Demand is fixing to skyrocket. This is getting interesting.
Adam Delimkhanov is still missing, too. MIA for over 2 weeks. What Chechnya doing?
Russia is throwing in some of their best remaining units in an attempt to slow Ukrainian advances in and around Bakhmut - weakening their front in Zaporizhzhia and around Kreminna.
ISW, 1 July:
“Russian forces are likely responding to Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut by pulling forces from elsewhere in Ukraine. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on July 1 that Russian forces recently transferred an unspecified Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) regiment from the Lyman direction (the area west of Kreminna) to the Bakhmut direction.
Geolocated footage published on June 30 shows the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment (106th Airborne Division) operating south of Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut). A Russian milblogger also claimed that elements of the 98th VDV Division are now operating in the Bakhmut direction. ISW has previously observed elements of the 237th Air Assault Regiment (76th VDV Division) and the 331st Airborne Regiment (98th VDV Division) operating in the Lyman direction, although ISW has not seen any visual confirmation of elements of either formation near Bakhmut recently.
Cherevaty reported that Russian forces replaced the VDV regiment in the Lyman direction with unspecified territorial defense forces, indicating that Russian forces may be redeploying more elite units to the Bakhmut area and replacing the elite units with inferior formations. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar previously stated that Russian forces transferred some of their most-combat capable units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions in the week following the start of Ukrainian counteroffensives on June 4.
Cherevaty stated that Bakhmut continues to offer Russian forces more propaganda value than military benefits and suggested that Russian forces may be concentrating elite forces in the Bakhmut area to preserve the perceived informational victory resulting from the capture of Bakhmut on May 21. If Russian reinforcements already sent to Bakhmut are insufficient to hold Russian gains in the area the Russian command may face difficult choices about whether to risk creating serious vulnerabilities in Kherson or Luhansk oblasts or to begin drawing forces away from southern Ukraine.”
UK Defence Intelligence Update, 2 July:
“Russia has cancelled the 2023 iteration of MAKS, its premier international air show. Scheduled every other year, MAKS takes place near Moscow and showcases Russias civil and military aerospace sectors and has become key to securing export customers.
The show has probably been cancelled Russia has cancelled the 2023 iteration of MAKS, its premier international air show. Scheduled every other year, MAKS takes place near Moscow and showcases Russias civil and military aerospace sectors and has become key to securing export customers.
The show has probably been cancelled largely due to genuine security concerns, following recent uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks inside Russia. Organisers were highly likely also aware of the potential for reputational damage if fewer international delegations attended. due to genuine security concerns, following recent uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks inside Russia. Organisers were highly likely also aware of the potential for reputational damage if fewer international delegations attended.
“Adam Delimkhanov is still missing, too”
It could ba Wagner, MOD, FSB, or some combination.
Best to kill each other quickly, to be safe.
Will go down as longest speedy thread😀
I appreciate it as it gave me some good reading and perspective
I know it is a small point but bakhmut was never fully “liberated” and by Russian definition that means destroyed and made uninhabitable, but Ukrainians maintained a small foot hold and Russians just declared victory and moved on. A but like Hitler declaring Stalingrad captured er oops.
Amazing how the “taking” of bakmut was like the taking of Stalingrad to them, of course not even close, but any port in a storm…
Now that bakmut is being “un-liberated “, Russian media is now meh on bakhmut
I have wondered for some time if a push in bakhmut would cause Russians to panic, can’t lose their “Stalingrad” moment, which would weaken other positions and it seems to be happening
Still amazed how the term “elite” is attached to these units, with the loses they have suffered and the amount of time in between for training…. Highly doubt they are elite in the way they say(just had a flash “I don’t think that word means what you think it does and don’t start a land war in Asia)
Imagine they could be better than most, but how much does that say
As usual I could be all wet, just my 2 cents
“amazed how the term “elite” is attached to these units”
I don’t think there is any “elite” ground combat unit (Brigade or higher) in the whole Russian Military, that has not already been mauled with heavy personnel and equipment losses in this “Special Military Operation”.
Everything has already been committed at least once, and most multiple times. Not only do they have high percentages of poorly trained recently mobilized replacement troops, but they are also now significantly lighter in terms of their Armor and Artillery.
Russia’s Military has endured more killed or wounded than the total headcount of their invasion force last year. Bakhmut alone was more deadly for them than the whole ten years in Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union. It is no longer the same Army that they went in with.
Well it least it served a good purpose - if you want any month since April 2020 let me know via Freep Mail
ISW is nothing but propaganda and completely unreliable
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