Posted on 06/25/2023 8:43:01 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya 5h
“Below is a brief description of Prigozhin’s mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here’s the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
1️⃣ Prigozhin’s rebellion wasn’t a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
2️⃣ Prigozhin’s objective was to draw Putin’s attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren’t demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin’s merits in taking Bakhmut (that’s why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin’s serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
3️⃣ Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin’s reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn’t prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to “take the Kremlin” - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
4️⃣ Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don’t believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
5️⃣ I don’t think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin’s address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin’s primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
And no, Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He’s now certainly convinced of that.”
Rob Lee @RALee85 21h
Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine’s offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over...
-Given Wagner’s presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa
@FreudGreyskull 12h
“Russian tg (Telegram) reports the loss of another KA-52”
@FreudGreyskull 11h
Chongar bridge continues repairs. Initial estimates indicated 2-3 weeks to be repaired
Video: https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1672896135965601793?cxt=HHwWgsDTpYOLqbcuAAAA
@KofmanMichael 1day
“It first reminds me of a Russian saying that those who have served in the army don’t laugh in the circus.”
Ukrainian marines crossed the Dnipro and raised 2 Ukrainian flags on the Antonovskiy bridge
In addition, Russian sources report that 100 Ukrainians have taken position there and have blocked a Russian grouping which cannot be evacuated. Another Russian group managed to escape narrowly.
For the past 3 days, the Ukrainian grouping as kept growing.
The Russians do not manage to unseat the Ukrainians because the area is under Ukrainian artillery control. Also, Ukrainians have installed potent EW systems that prevent the use of FPV drones and also observation drones have been lost as well. Russian artillery remains muted.
Russians are requesting the air force to drop a few FAB-500 at the base of the bridge on both sides.
But the “request remained unanswered” due to the “difficulty of transmitting information”
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1673068185170395138
“Ukrainian Marines crossed the Dnipro and raised 2 Ukrainian flags on the Antonovskiy bridge”
Ministry: Dnipro River returns to its banks after flooding caused by Kakhovka Dam explosion
https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-dnipro-river-returns-to-its-banks-in-kherson-after-flooding-caused-by-kakhovka-dam-explosion/
“The Dnipro River in Kherson has returned to its banks after the flooding caused by the June 6 Kakhovka Dam explosion, the Environment Ministry reported on June 25.
The water level decreased by 4 centimeters, resulting in a total drop of 5.35 meters since the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station by Russian forces, located about 60 km upstream from Kherson.”
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1673079382812815360
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1672542143280234496
All is forgiven.
PStyleOne1@PStyle0ne1
38m
3 Ukrainian tanks have crossed reportedly as of yesterday
Please cite your source for this statement. A URL would be sufficient.
Having looked through the details of the home page, there seems no such "the Boss.": I did however find and re-post the information "...remember to use common courtesy when posting and refrain from posting personal attacks, profanity, vulgarity, threats, racial or religious bigotry, or any other materials offensive or otherwise inappropriate for a conservative family audience. Free Republic is a non-commercial site. Please do not post advertising, solicitations, spam or any other commercial messages. Do not spam us with links to your own site. No one likes spam."
Daily posts from ORYX, a commercial site in the Netherlands in that they market their books and services, seems something akin to "commercial messages." Or advertising.
“Do not enter onto a thread on a topic you don’t like just to disrupt, rattle cages, poke sticks, insult the regulars, or engage in trolling activities, etc.” ~ Jim Robinson”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4158648/replies?c=1
“Wagner downed 3 Russian Mi-8 Electronic Warfare helicopters, an 1 Mi-8 transport, a Ka-52 attack helicopter, an Mi-35 attack helo and an Il-22 aircraft. As many as 40 RU aircrew may have been killed.”
Worst single day of the war for the Russian Aerospace Force - so far.
Thanks for the URL.
Still wondering about the “Daily posts from ORYX, a commercial site in the Netherlands in that they market their books and services, seems something akin to ‘commercial messages.’ Or advertising.”
@Gerashchenko_en 1h
“Russian Telegram channel VCHK-OGPU: “Source”:
“Moods in Shoigu’s environment are panicked. He himself is isolated. Staff decisions might be announced by tomorrow. Operation-investigative group has been formed and is at work.”
“Shoigu is currently in isolation under the watch of personal security, comprised of FSS employees. Departments of FSB and Investigative Committee started studying materials of criminal cases on theft in MoD back on Thursday”.”
“””Wagner downed 3 Russian Mi-8 Electronic Warfare helicopters, an 1 Mi-8 transport, a Ka-52 attack helicopter, an Mi-35 attack helo and an Il-22 aircraft. As many as 40 RU aircrew may have been killed.”””
What were they using to bring them down?
“Still wondering about the “Daily posts from ORYX, a commercial site”
Most posts on this forum have always been from commercial sites (e.g. Fox News, WSJ, etc.). We live in a Capitalist economy.
Posting info and discussing it is what we do here.
“I can’t imagine Prigozhin will lounge in Belarus for the rest of his life” - LTG (R) Ben Hodges
@EuromaidanPR 11h
“We are observing a huge increase in maritime traffic between the russian federation and Iran.
The russian federation has transferred to the Caspian almost all its old “river-sea” vessels that were built 40 or more years ago and can no longer navigate the Black Sea (all “Volgobalts”, Omsk”, “Sormovsky”, “Baltic”, which were built by the hundreds during the USSR) - so there is something to transport.”
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