Posted on 05/02/2023 6:17:43 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
A six shot series. I never went back for my last.
“Thought this is interesting take on Russian psyche
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbHLrH9Q_E4 “
What’s the gist?
The trouble with these mobilizations is it diminishes the labor pool, creating a shortage of laborers, further weakening the Russian economy and lowering tax revenues.
“Another train sabotage reported in Bryansk region in Western Russia, with 20 cars going off rails after a series of explosions. Russian Railways called it “illegal interference,” per RBC. This is a second incident in two days — yesterday another train carrying fuel was blown up.”
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1653460268138086401
... why exactly Russia thinks that it is both entitled to do this and has a duty to do this and in fact is operating in an entirely different environment mentally to what we take for granted as normal and natural in in the West it is simply because Russia hasn’t gone through the kind of national or societal Transformations that other countries
have.
... the Russian threat is not just something that’s external to Europe it’s also external to the time we’re in it’s not something that comes from the 21st century both the attitudes that Russia is acting on the idea that Russia is entitled to a land Empire and all of these small independent countries around its periphery don’t really have any right to exist they should be governed from Moscow but also when Russia does roll its tanks across the borders the way Russia behaves and the way its individual soldiers behave it is something from a far older and far more brutal age
That’s all I want to scroll through, Hope it helps.
Since early April, when Pentagon briefing slides about the state of the Ukrainian army 'leaked' onto the web, the writing in 'western' media about the much discussed Ukrainian counteroffensive has become more gloomy.The hyping is largely gone and the assessments become more realistic. Three days ago the London Times offered a piece in that category:
Ukraine isn’t ready for its big offensive, but it has no choice (paywalled, archived version)
Kyiv is locked into a spring or summer push despite burning through ammo so fast that the West can’t keep up.
[W]hile the Ukrainians are moving quickly to assimilate their 230 new and reconditioned western tanks and 1,550 armoured vehicles, they still lack proper air defences for any big offensive operation. That puts them at risk from Russian airpower. Western defence sources are also uncertain whether senior commanders can adapt to the new systems as well as their soldiers on the ground.
Yet Kyiv has little real choice but to launch a major spring or summer offensive. Its leaders are increasingly boxed in. As an American defence official put it: “The Ukrainians have surprised us as well as Putin in the past, but have much less room for manoeuvre now . . . and the Russians know it.”
President Zelensky has managed the West with great skill, but to maintain its support he has to show what Washington insiders rather tastelessly call a “return on investment”.
He must also balance domestic politics. Hawks such as Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, prevent any meaningful talk about negotiations, even though some in the government think now is the time to put out feelers. One western diplomat in Kyiv described a “surreal parallel experience” as his interlocutors “discuss potential formats for negotiations one evening” and then “shout that there can be no talks with Russia” in public the next day.
During the war Kiev first burned through its standing army material and personnel. It then received a large amount of Soviet era equipment from former Warsaw Pact members and burned through that stash. It has now received 'western' arms for a third army that will largely consist of mobilized civilians with little military experience. After the counteroffensive has run its course, no matter the outcome, that third army will largely be destroyed. There will be no more material and personnel for a fourth army.
Moon of Alabama Crap poster.
Remember when Moon of Alabama predicted (and even declared) the failure of the Kherson offensive? Yep, me too.
Remember when Moon of Alabama predicted the failure of the Kherson offensive? Yep, me too. Even as Ukraine made daily progress, he kept predicting their defeat each step of the way.
Remember when Moon of Alabama predicted the failure of Russia’s winter offensive? Nope, me neither.
The coming offensive might fail, succeed, or more likely somewhere in between, but if I wanted legitimate analysis of the Ukraine war, Moon of Alabama would be one of the last sources I’d look to.
Ukraine drone just hit oil tanks at port of Taman in Krasnodar Russia on the other side of Kerch bridge. What Kerch bridge air defense doing?
“There will be no more material and personnel for a fourth army.”
The training and materiel pipelines are now standing structures, continuing to flow. Units are being formed, equipped and trained on an ongoing basis.
Here's a nice video of the Taman oil tank on fire.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1653644560285724673
Marcus...It appears that the Kerch bridge air defense was moved to Sevastopol.
Speedy...certainly worth including in today's update.
The gist is basically Russian psyche is truly different from the west and even the east that they are basically operating on a 19th century level. Conquest, brutality is baked in. That the sort of openness of the 90s was an aberration rather than an actual change. Hard to simplify, worth listening to
That is a ‘target rich environment’.
Send more drones.
I would be interested in the warhead in the drones. An AGM-65 warhead is too heavy for the drone and a Javelin warhead is too light. Most certainly is a shaped charge.
“I would be interested in the warhead in the drones... a shaped charge.”
It needs to penetrate a strong steel containment vessel. Not heavy tank armor, but strong steel nonetheless. The smooth and curved outer surface of those oil storage units would deflect a lot of the pressure from a nearby HE explosion, so a direct shaped charge or penetrator would be most reliable.
I think they should aim for the base of the unit rather than the top, to get the maximum amount of fuel spreading out on the ground, to try to ignite neighboring units.
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