Posted on 03/28/2023 6:03:43 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
ARTICLE
Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone
Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed: Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’
By Georgi Kantchev
and Evan Gershkovich
March 28, 2023 10:45 am DST
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-starting-to-come-undone-431a2878
MOSCOW—The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over.
As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government revenue is being squeezed and its economy has shifted to a lower-growth trajectory, likely for the long term.
The country’s biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers. Government finances are strained. The ruble is down over 20% since November against the dollar. The labor force has shrunk as young people are sent to the front or flee the country over fears of being drafted. Uncertainty has curbed business investment.
“Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion.
There is no sign the economic difficulties are bad enough to pose a short-term threat to Russia’s ability to wage war. But state revenue shortfalls suggest an intensifying dilemma over how to reconcile ballooning military expenditures with the subsidies and social spending that have helped President Vladimir Putin shield civilians from hardship.
Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned this month that Russia is running out of cash. “There will be no money next year, we need foreign investors,” the raw-materials magnate said at an economic conference.
Having largely lost its European market next door, and with other Western investors pulling out, Moscow is becoming ever more reliant on China, threatening to realize long-simmering fears in Moscow of becoming an economic colony of its dominant southern neighbor.
“Despite Russia’s resilience in the short term, the long-term picture is bleak: Moscow will be much more inward-looking and overly dependent on China,” said Maria Shagina, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank in London.
A big part of the dimming outlook stems from a bad bet by Mr. Putin last year that he could use Russian energy supplies to limit Western Europe’s support for Ukraine.
European governments, instead of tempering their support for Kyiv, moved rapidly to find new sources of natural gas and oil. Most Russian gas flows to Europe stopped, and after an initial jump, global gas prices fell sharply. Moscow now says it will cut its oil production by 5% until June from its previous level. It is selling its oil at a discount to global prices.
As a result, the government’s energy revenue fell by nearly half in the first two months of this year compared with last year, while the budget deficit deepened. The fiscal gap hit $34 billion in those first two months, the equivalent of more than 1.5% of the country’s total economic output. That is forcing Moscow to dip deeper into its sovereign-wealth fund, one of its main anti-crisis buffers.
The government can still borrow domestically, and the sovereign-wealth fund still has $147 billion, even after shrinking by $28 billion since before the invasion. Russia has found ways to sell its oil to China and India. China has stepped in to provide many parts Russia used to get from the West.
Russian officials have acknowledged the difficulties but say the economy has been quick to adapt. Mr. Putin has said his government has been effective in countering the threats to the economy.
image
“You know, there is a maxim, guns versus butter,” Mr. Putin said in a state-of-the-nation address last month. “Of course, national defense is the top priority, but in resolving strategic tasks in this area, we should not repeat the mistakes of the past and should not destroy our own economy.”
For much of Mr. Putin’s more than 20 years in charge, high oil and gas revenue underpinned a social contract that saw most Russians largely staying out of opposition politics and protests in exchange for rising living standards.
The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Russia’s potential growth rate—the rate at which it could grow without courting inflation—was around 3.5% before 2014, the year it seized Crimea from Ukraine. That has now fallen to around 1%, some economists say, as productivity declines and the economy becomes technologically backward and more isolated.
“For an economy like Russia, 1% is nothing; it’s not even a maintenance level,” said Ms. Prokopenko, the former central bank official.
The fall in exports, tight labor market and increased government spending are worsening inflation risks, the central bank said this month. Russia’s inflation was running at around 11% in February compared with that month last year. That rate will temporarily fall below 4% in the coming months, the central bank said, though that is because of the high comparison base of the post-invasion surge in prices last year. A number of other economic indicators will also temporarily improve in the coming months due to such base effects, economists say.
The country’s industry is in its worst labor crunch since records began in 1993, the Moscow-based Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy has said. The post-invasion brain drain and last fall’s 300,000-man military mobilization have resulted in around half of businesses facing worker shortages, according to the central bank. Locksmiths, welders and machine operators are in high demand.
On a recent visit to an aircraft factory, Mr. Putin said the labor shortage is hampering military production. He said the government has prepared a list of priority professions for deferment from service.
Before the war, Oleg Mansurov dreamed of competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. After the invasion, investors in Mr. Mansurov’s Moscow-based SR Space pulled their funds.
By April 2022, the private company, which he launched in 2020 with venture-capital funding, was facing bankruptcy. To save it, he turned it into an IT business, providing services from web design to analyzing satellite imagery.
Western satellite-imaging-service companies had left the Russian market over the war, and Mr. Mansurov secured interest from large state-controlled enterprises that previously rejected his approaches, such as Gazprom PJSC and the nuclear-engineering company Rosatom.
“We became more focused not on the development of a long-term product that would make some kind of qualitative leap but on simply becoming a classic business and generating revenue,” Mr. Mansurov said. “We understood we just had to survive.”
Companies are adapting to the West’s import bans. While Moscow has boosted imports of technologies critical to its war in Ukraine from other countries, including semiconductors and microchips from China, in many civilian sectors, parts are difficult to replace.
The central bank has said risks are rising in the airline sector, where a deficit of new aircraft and parts could lead to problems with maintenance. IT and finance firms are struggling without access to Western technologies such as software, database-management systems and analytics tools and equipment, the bank said.
Russia tried import substitution—replacing foreign goods with homemade ones—for years before the current sanctions, with limited success. A large chunk of its telecommunications equipment and advanced oil drilling software is imported.
“This is a little bit like going back to Soviet times, doing everything ourselves,” said Vasily Astrov, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. “It will be nearly impossible to properly replace what’s missing.” Analysts at the central bank have called the postwar reality “reverse industrialization,” suggesting a reliance on less-sophisticated technology.
Ilya Korovenkov, director of Chili. Lab, a boutique IT company in Nizhny Novgorod developing web services and e-marketplaces, said that before the war, clients would often order new capabilities and functions. Now, the work is focused on fixing and improving existing systems.
“It’s logical,” he said. “We don’t know what will happen in a month. We need to wait it out.”
With all these changes, the Russian economy is becoming more dependent on the state.
Much industrial-production growth now comes from factories turning out missiles, artillery shells and military clothing, replacing the vast quantities used in the war. Some factories are working multiple shifts to cope with demand, Mr. Putin has said.
While official statistics don’t break out military production, the output of “finished metal goods”—a line that analysts say includes weapons and ammunition—rose by 7% last year. Production of computers, electronic and optical products, another line said to include military output, rose by 2% for the year and 41% in December compared with November. By contrast, auto output fell about 45% year-over-year.
Military production masks the problems. “This isn’t real, productive growth. This doesn’t develop the economy,” Ms. Prokopenko said.
Russia managed to avoid the worst last year, aided initially by high global energy prices. Gross domestic product fell 2.1%, according to official data, far less than some early forecasts of a 10% to 15% drop.
Gas exports to Europe didn’t start tailing off until last summer. The EU’s ban on Russian seaborne oil and a Group of Seven price cap began to take effect only in December. Sanctions on oil products such as diesel took effect last month. These delays kept energy revenue up and helped the government unleash a huge fiscal stimulus of around 4% of GDP in 2022, according to the IMF.
In January and February of this year, however, oil and gas tax revenue, which accounts for nearly half of total budget revenue, fell by 46% year-over-year, while state spending jumped more than 50%.
Analysts estimate that Russia’s fiscal break-even oil price—what it would need to balance its books—has swelled to over $100 a barrel as war spending weighs on the budget.
The country’s flagship Urals crude fetched an average of $49.56 a barrel in February, according to the Ministry of Finance, a deep discount to the benchmark Brent, which traded around $80 a barrel that month, although some analysts argue the difference is smaller. The government last month changed its oil-taxation formula in an effort to squeeze more from producers.
“Russia now has a lower bargaining power in the world oil market because they have much less choice where to ship the oil,” said Mr. Astrov, the Vienna Institute economist.
Consumers are ailing, too. Retail sales fell 6.7% in 2022, the worst showing since 2015, according to official data. New-car sales fell by 62% in February year-on-year, according to the Moscow-based Association of European Businesses.
Nearly a decade ago, Artem Temirov and his brother launched a coffee shop in central Moscow they called Kooperativ Chernyy, or the Black Cooperative. Just before the war, they opened a roaster and planned to begin selling their coffee beans in supermarkets.
The invasion halted those plans. Russia’s postwar exodus has included many who could afford to spend at a high-end shop like Kooperativ Chernyy, and sales fell. Despite a pick-up in the summer—which Mr. Temirov attributed to Russians wanting to ignore their new reality—sales cratered again after Mr. Putin’s September troop mobilization.
For this year, most analysts expect another fall in GDP, although some, including the IMF, forecast modest growth.
But the fund said that by 2027, economic output is projected to be around 7% lower than pre-war forecasts had indicated. “The loss in human capital, isolation from global financial markets, and impaired access to advanced technology will hamper the Russian economy,” the IMF said.
Rystad Energy, a consulting firm, expects investment in Russian oil and gas exploration and production to fall to $33 billion this year from a predicted $57 billion before the invasion. That would mean less output down the line. Analysts at BP PLC estimate that Russia’s total oil production, which was around 12 million barrels a day in 2019, will be down to between 7 million and 9 million a day by 2035.
“We’re not talking about a one-year or a two-year crisis,” said Mr. Astrov. “The Russian economy will be on a different trajectory.”
MOSCOW—The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over.
As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government revenue is being squeezed and its economy has shifted to a lower-growth trajectory, likely for the long term.
But its YOUR source. the fog is from Your source and it says the opposite of your headlines. You would get more readers and maybe even some sympathy, with honest unbiased reporting, instead of constant “ Ukraine is winning, Russia losing”, when in fact Russia is not losing.....they are advancing and will likely make it to the borders of the breakaway providences. If they don’t stop there, then other countries will put boots on the ground and planes in the air.
ADDENDUM Comment # 23
CHART #1 Oil and gas revenue
- 2.0 trillion rubles
CHART #2 Federal budget balance - 1 trillion rubles
CHART #3 Retail trade turnover index
* Note: 1 trillion rubles = $13.1 billion
** Sources: Russia’s finance ministry and statistics office via CEIC Data
And if that happens, we are all screwed, because they will start the draft and send the middle/lower class son’s (and maybe daughters this time?) to die for the MIC.
Now post one of Ukraine’s loss of revenue.....don’t forget the agriculture.
But its YOUR source. the fog is from Your source.
I gave you honest unbiased reporting & you still complain?!?! LOL
Pro-Russia invasion, Pro-Putin, Anti-Ukraine continuously insist I “IMPLY” [nicer word for their critical sometimes abusive comments]
No, TOTALLY wrong with their flawed accusation is I state “Ukraine is winning, Russia losing.”
Their anti-Ukraine statements are fraught with falsely promotion of THEIR propaganda view...
NOT my view or comments!
Russia and China both scored historically highest trade surplus last year, about $350 billion and 900 billion respectively.
Comment #26 “Now post one of Ukraine’s loss of revenue.....don’t forget the agriculture.”
It is important to do your own research & find your own trusted resources. But, I will help you this time:
“Damage and resilience
Ukraine’s economic prospects collapsed after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale assault ten months ago, causing thousands of civilian deaths, displacing millions of Ukrainians and resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars in damages.
Energy infrastructure in the country has been hit particularly hard recently, as Putin’s troops seek to plunge Ukrainian cities into the dark and cold over the winter.
The cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine was put at roughly $349 billion in a September assessment from the World Bank, the European Commission and Ukraine’s government. Ongoing fighting will have raised the price tag since then.
Still, the country’s economy has proved more resilient than initially predicted.
Russia’s occupation is concentrated in the east and south of the country. The rest “has figured out how to carry on,” said Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist.
“It’s transitioned from a peacetime economy to a wartime economy,” he said.
Rebuilding rail, buildings and electricity systems is propping up economic output. GDP could edge up in 2023 when compared to the dismal 2022 base, Ash noted.
Importantly, the country’s financial infrastructure has remained intact, allowing people and businesses to continue to make payments. The government can still collect taxes and raise money to support its troops.
“The banking system [has been] strong and operated with no functional limitations during the whole war,” Andriy Pyshnyy, governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, recently told the International Monetary Fund. “Almost all banks — not only systematically important banks — [have] continued operations. This is a big advantage for Ukraine.”
Tens of billions of dollars in foreign aid from the West has also played a crucial role, allowing the government to continue to provide services.
A breakthrough deal with Russia to restart grain shipments via the Black Sea has helped Ukraine’s large agricultural sector in recent months. But exports of products such as wheat are still well below where they were before the war began.”
I totally give God all the praise!
Ukraine national economy stands despite the evil intentions of this Russian Invasion perpetrated against this country.
The International Monetary Fund reached a preliminary agreement for a $15.6 billion loan to help Ukraine stabilize its economy. Wihout the infusion of rvnues over thes two yars and prior Ukraines economy would be in the ditch. On their own they cannot survive.
I don’t care how many ways they try to spin it, or how much they made you want to believe it, Ukraine has lost 20% of their territory, their economy is totally destroyed, and the moment the US is done using them, they will totally collapse.
That’s not winning anything.....Ukraine will never be safe or secure and it’ll never be able to rebuild its economy.....This war will end in unimaginable decimation of Ukrainian economy and infrastructure.
Ukraine Propaganda. Nothing more.
VIDEOS
1. UKRAINE LEVELED SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN OCCUPIED MELITOPOL USED BY RUSSIAN MILTARY || 2023
Warthog Defense
483K subscribers
3-28-2023 5:00 p.m. DST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWnZo5RHJOM
2. Putin prepares Russian society for an “eternal” war with the West
Kanal13
1.5M subscribers
3-28-2023 11:00 p.m. DST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T9SVGZxYOM
3. Why Putin Became A Killer
Vlad Vexle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SUjqIvVZHY
As Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine continues, we look at how Putin degenerated from a corrupt but measured autocrat, to a delusional tyrant at war the with West.
In this video we look at 4 stages of degeneration Vladimir Putin went through as leader of Russia 1999-2022. This is what led to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, war against the West, and partial slide into totalitarianism at home.
Look Congress sent $200B American tax dollars to Ukraine to protect Ukraine’s children...... sent $0.00 American tax dollars for armed school resource officers to protect American children.
If you think the Globalist ruling elites care about American children over Ukraines then your heads in the clouds.
ARTICLE
Ukraine Launches U.S. ‘Small Diameter’ Bomb With Longer Range Than HIMARS
By Andrew Stanton
3/28/23 at 11:34 AM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-launches-small-diameter-bomb-longer-range-himars-1790887
Russia said on Tuesday that its military intercepted a Ukrainian ground-launched small-diameter bomb provided by the United States, signaling that Ukraine’s forces are now using the sought-after weapon.
The Russian Ministry of Defense in a daily operational update Tuesday wrote that troops shot down a GLSDB guided missile, as well as 18 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Russia’s report indicates that Ukraine has received and been trained on how to use the powerful bombs, which they long requested despite concerns that these weapons could cross Russian President Vladimir Putin’s red line.
GLSDB are precision bombs that have been seen as a powerful development for Ukrainian troops, who have worked to prevent Russia from making gains in key areas in the eastern region of Donetsk, including Bakhmut. Notably, these bombs are capable of hitting targets as far as 150 kilometers (95 miles) away, thus expanding Ukraine’s ability to strike behind Russia’s lines. They are also capable of being fitted to rockets that have already been part of Ukraine’s arsenal.
The range of these bombs is larger than that of the HIMARS previously provided to Ukraine by the U.S. government, which helped its military turn the tide of the war in its favor last year. The United States announced plans to provide Ukraine with the bombs in February.
Wes Rumbaugh, an associate fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Newsweek on Tuesday that the GLSDB is a cost-effective way for the United States “to provide a mass of stand-off capability to Ukraine.”
“This extended range allows Ukrainian troops to target a wider range of Russian targets, including those farther behind the main lines of battle, giving them more options to disrupt Russian operations,” he said.
Rumbaugh said it is not surprising that Russia was able to down one of these bombs and that Ukraine will “likely need to use mass to overcome Russian air defenses or suppress those defenses in some way to get the most out of GLSDB capabilities.”
He noted that Ukraine had a “relatively quick turnaround” on using the GLSDB, as it would take some “investment and time” to prepare Ukrainian forces to properly use them. He said the interception signals that this is one of the earlier uses of the weapon in Ukraine.
Russia condemned U.S. providing Ukraine GLSDB
Early reporting that the United States could be considering providing these bombs to Ukraine drew condemnation from Russian authorities, who warned that doing so could lead to an escalation of the conflict. The Kremlin has long criticized the West for providing large amounts of weaponry to Ukraine, which has bolstered their defense efforts.
“Potentially, this is extremely dangerous, it will mean bringing the conflict to a whole new level, which, of course, will not bode well from the point of view of global and pan-European security,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in January.
GLSDB were developed by SAAB in partnership with Boeing. SAAB describes the bombs as “exceptionally flexible, highly effective and accurate over long distances.”
Experts have previously noted the significance of these weapons in Ukraine.
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said in January that the bombs will “reduce sanctuary for Russians.”
“Life is about to start getting very uncomfortable for the Russian navy, airforce and ammunition handlers on Crimea, along the ‘land bridge’...and hopefully soon for repair crews on Kerch Bridge,” he tweeted.
Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and weapons analysts via email for comment.
A soldier of the Ukrainian forces interviewd in a dug out in the area of the city of Bakhmut answers a question from a German DW correspondent:
“How do you cope?”
Tearfully he stumbles through his words.......”It’s scary, very scary... Tens of thousands dead.... You smoke with them in the evening and a few hours later they are gone... I think about them every day”
it’s really karma
Russia has to kill off the devils
their communism created
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.