Posted on 02/27/2023 8:03:02 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Feb 26, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Claims Swirl Around Supposed Strike On Russian A-50 Radar Jet In Belarus <——
One of Russia’s most prized military aircraft, an A-50 Mainstay, is claimed to have been struck at its forward base in Belarus.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/claims-swirl-around-supposed-strike-on-russian-a-50-radar-jet-in-belarus
Excerpts:
We cannot confirm that this attack actually happened or the nature of the damage, if any, to the A-50 - the type has been a staple at the base throughout the war.
But if it did occur, it would be a significant loss for the Russian Air Force and, depending on how it was carried out, it could be a sign of a developing front and what’s to come in the now year-old war.
Various claims state that the aircraft, a variant of the Il-76 quad-jet cargo transport, was attacked via drone and damaged if not destroyed.
There are also claims that this was done by a partisan group inside Belarus, which would be a significant development if true.
The target here is very important, regardless. The A-50s are very low-density, high-demand assets and are one of Russia’s major advantages over Ukraine in terms of the air war.
The A-50 provides general wide-area aerial surveillance and airborne command and control capabilities.
Beyond this, and arguably most importantly, they provide the critical ‘look-down’ radar surveillance capability for Russia’s air operations.
As such, not only can they generate an ‘air picture’ deep into Ukraine, but this also includes detecting low-flying aircraft which far-off ground-based radars cannot see.
This is currently the primary operating regime for Ukrainian aircraft anywhere near Russia’s ‘overlay’ of complex anti-air capabilities that extends deep into Ukrainian-controlled territory.
This look-down capability could become even more important than it already is, especially in defensive applications, should Ukraine gain more standoff strike capabilities in the form of cruise missiles (or quasi-cruise missiles) and long-range drones, which seems more and more likely to become the case.
The A-50’s capabilities are used in a limited capacity by Russia at present. Roughly, around 10 are thought to be operational in general, with some sources saying the number is actually significantly lower. [Denys reports there were only 6 modernized ones, but only 5 were flying. See Denys report below for more details.]
Even fewer are actually capable of flying missions at any given time.
Beyond supporting the Ukraine war, one is usually forward deployed to Syria.
The aging A-50’s far more capable replacement, the A-100, has been delayed.
Update:
The Russian A-50 was “blown up at the Machulishchi [Belarus] military airfield,” by drones operated by Belarusian partisans opposed to the current Lukashenko government, according to the Telegram channel of BYPOL, an organization of Belarusan military dissidents opposed to the current Lukashenko government.
“As a result of two explosions (the places are indicated in the photo), the front and central parts of the aircraft were damaged, the avionics and the radar antenna were damaged,” the BYPOL Telegram channel reported. “The damage is serious, the plane will definitely not fly anywhere.”
The incident “occurred while snowplows were working near the aircraft. Probably, as has repeatedly happened at Russian military facilities, someone again did not comply with fire safety measures and smoked near the side. Belarusian partisans are consistent in expelling the Nazis from their land.”
The attack was carried out with drones operated by Belarusian partisans, the BYPOL Telegram channel reported.
“These were drones,” BYPOL reported. “The participants of the operation are Belarusians, participants of the ‘Victory’ plan, they are now safe outside the country.”
The head of the “ByPol” association, Alexander Azarov, “said that the operation had been prepared for several months, and expressed the opinion that the current authorities in Minsk will not call this attack an excuse for the direct participation of the Belarusian army in the war in Ukraine,” according to BYPOL.
==
-—> Ukrainian Army has decided to form new 37th and 38th Marine Brigade in the structure of Ukrainian Naval Forces. <-—
https://militaryland.net/news/new-marine-brigade-is-being-formed/
———————————————————————————————————————
Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 368.
Today there are a lot of updates from the east.
Here, the Russians managed to breach one of the key points on the Ukrainian defense line and cause a local collapse of the front.
This gave the Russians a chance to double the number of assaults on the last remaining settlements north of Bakhmut, and, unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the Russians managed to push them out on the last day of suitable weather.
Last time I told you that the Russians concentrated their assault units to the north of Bakhmut in order to take control over the last settlements on the line before the weather conditions deteriorated, in particular, Berkhivka, Yahidne, and train station Stupochky.
The situation in Berkhivka was very dire, and the Russians managed to push the Ukrainians out of this village after 1 day of additional clashes.
The situation around Yahidne was more stable, and the Ukrainians here had even conducted a successful counterattack, but, unfortunately, with the fall of Berkhivka, the defense line quickly fell apart.
The Russians managed to overwhelm the Ukrainians with fire by opening additional lines of attack and eventually capturing Yahidne.
After that, they basically put the Ukrainians near the train station into a salient, so the Ukrainians were forced to step back from this position as well.
In order to slow down the Russians, the Ukrainians have blown up a small dam on the outskirts of Bakhmut.
The release of the water flooded the streets between Ukrainian- and Russian-controlled territories and also cut off some Russian positions from the mainland, which in the short term diminished their room for maneuver.
The Ukrainians here got very unlucky because the Russians managed to achieve their tactical goals during the last day of the suitable for massive assaults weather.
As you can see from the video, the Ukrainians blew up the dam when it already started raining.
The video was filmed in the morning when it was still cold, so there was a mixture of snow and rain. But recent videos from Bakhmut clearly show that the snow has almost entirely melted because around a week ago, everything was still white.
The latest developments mean that there are no Ukrainian fortifications between Russian positions and the last highway leading out of Bakhmut.
There are several smaller roads between this highway and Ivanivske, but they are going through the fields, and with the current weather, the chance of getting stuck is very high.
One of the things the Ukrainians can do is to capitalize on their recent gains in the forest near Ivanivske and continue pushing the Russians further south.
This should give them more room for withdrawal by using the highway to get to Ivanivske, and once they reach Ivaniske, they would still need to go through the fields because the bridge is destroyed, but these fields should be easier to cross because they are located the higher ground and, therefore, should be drier.
When it comes to Bakhmut itself, it looks like the Ukrainians are finishing their withdrawal from the eastern bank.
Yesterday, the group was finally split into two small groups.
As predicted, one group is slowly withdrawing via the northern bridge and another one via the dam.
Some sources even suggest that the Russians already control the whole residential area with small houses and one of the two high-rise building areas.
When it comes to the number of troops left, Russian sources suggest that they are expecting to capture up to 20 thousand Ukrainian soldiers.
However, this number is based on the assumption that all the brigades that are involved in the defense of Bakhmut are in full force and are all inside Bakhmut, which is not true at all.
Each brigade is represented by only a few elements, while most troops are kept out of Bakhmut for rotation purposes.
According to the military-affiliated spokesmen, there are no more than 5 thousand troops in Bakhmut, and given that this report is outdated, at the moment, the Ukrainians likely have even fewer troops.
This is not unlikely because during the Battle for Severodonetsk, there were only 2500 soldiers holding the city, and at the final stages, it took the Ukrainians only 600 troops to defend most of the industrial zone.
And Sieverodonetsk is almost exactly the size of Bakhmut, which makes for a fair comparison. The estimated number of troops suggests that the city is not overcrowded, and withdrawal remains an option.
But the deteriorating weather conditions make the whole situation tricky because, on the one hand, it is unlikely that the Russians will be able to establish full control over the roads, but on the other hand, it makes it very hard to use the remaining roads in the fields.
But very soon, we will see how the Ukrainians decide to act under the current circumstances.
==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
The A-20 modification a50u was badly damaged [RF-50608, still flying with Soviet paint job]. The plane was produced by the Soviet Union and can no longer be made. They can maintain them by cannot produce that airplane with that equipment. Source is Belarus opposition resource which is kinda reliable. Net worth of that plane is US$500,000. Attack may have been conducted by UA drones or Belarus partisans drones.
Any equipment that survived could be put in one of the 2 other Ilyushin 76s stationed there. Russia has 9 A-20s, 6 are the modernized version. 3 were flying near Ukraine: one around Belarus, one flying around Crimea, another in Russian territory near Donbas.
Only 2 other A-20s are actively flying in Russia. They could use parts from the non-flying [aka, hanger queens] A-20s to make another one.
However, it is still a huge loss for Russia. They use A-20s to identify UA air defenses, to track UA planes, and to track their own missiles when they launch an attack. Without this A-20, Russia is blind in the north. And ends any possible air attack from the north.
==
Iranian Shahid drones are nearing 100% shoot down rate. Iran not supplying enough spare parts to keep Shahid drones flying, and so are running out of them.
==
UA just got 4 Leopard tanks, and already Russia is publishing photos of them destroyed ... images are from failed Turkish invasion of Syria and were destroyed by TOW missiles.
==
If you have military experience even in Afghan, think twice because this war is not like Afghan, its a full scale war like WWII.
==
Saudi Arabia promised US$100 million for humanitarian aide and US$300 for fuel.
Speedy and PIF Star in a film titled “The Love which Cannot be Named.”
Ukraine’s General Staff says that Russian proxies in Oleshky and Skadovsk in Kherson are preparing to flee to Crimea
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1630207376333717506
Cheer up.
RuZZians are dying by the thousands every month.
Its a great time to be an American.
It’s like you don’t know you are sided with China, North Korea, and Iran.
How can that possibly be?
Lukashenko just set up Putin’s top general in Belarus Alexander Matovnikov with an icky blackmail video that was just leaked.
I don’t support either Russia or Ukraine. I was simply pointing out what Ukraine supporters are also supporting besides the piano player and his unwinnable strategy.
I’m quite cheerful this morning, thank you for your concern. Have you flown to Ukraine to join the fight yet?
No. Have you flown to RuZZia to join Wagner yet?
I don’t support Russia or Ukraine. Feel better now?
I’m feeling just fine. Thanks for asking.
“I was simply pointing out what Ukraine supporters are also supporting besides the piano player and his unwinnable strategy.”
You post a wildly unrelated series of things, and claim that supporting the defense of Ukraine automatically requires support of those unrelated things.
There has to be name for that logical fallacy.
Its probably a few.
If you don’t support the defense of Ukraine, then you don’t support the Geneva or Hague Conventions, Democracy, Freedom, Christian values, Mom or apple pie.
“The RuZZian Spring Offensive has been a smashing failure.”
I think the Russians are spectacularly offensive!
From your comments it certainly sounds like you are a Russian supporter - despite your protests. It a common tactic for Russian loving trolls to sound like they support neither side, while heaping calumnies on Ukrainians trying to defend their country, homes, lives, and families.
You would likely feel better, if you were actually honest about who you support.
Let me try that intersection, one more time.
“Another Russian BMP-2 IFV was destroyed by Ukrainian forces at the infamous crossing point in Mykilske near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast- apparently by running over an anti-tank mine and being hit by an ATGM.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630254340689494021
So say we didn’t support Ukraine and Russia took all of Ukraine what do you think would have happened next?
Serious question, I have my opinion looking forward to yours
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