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Summertime Blues! US Treasury 3m30y Curve In Bear Steepening Mode, Indicating A US Recession By Summer 2023
Confounded Interest ^ | 02/23/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 02/23/2023 9:24:14 AM PST by Kaiser8408a

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To: Kaiser8408a

Dow and gold down again today.


21 posted on 02/23/2023 10:37:19 AM PST by spokeshave (Proud Boys, Angry Dads and Grumpy Grandads.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

I had the same monthly FICO score - 814 - for the last three years.

This month - 810.

The only change is paying my rent with my CC.


22 posted on 02/23/2023 10:40:16 AM PST by zeestephen (43,000)
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To: zeestephen

I should also mention that 15% of my Bonds are long term but I do that through a Franklin Templeton Bond Fund. I don’t even think about that account, it just does what it does, had for years.


23 posted on 02/23/2023 10:43:24 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: zeestephen

Scores are weird but 4 points means nothing. I don’t care about them because I don’t borrow money at my age. My score vacillates between 796 and about 810, it doesn’t matter.

I loan money, I don’t borrow it.


24 posted on 02/23/2023 10:45:20 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: SaxxonWoods
I have the same philosophy - I sold my QQQ at $400 in November 2021 because I thought the P/E for the mega-tech FAANG stocks was insane.

Still waiting to buy back into tech.

However - if the 30 Year US Treasury goes to 10%, I would be a major buyer.

Once again - I cannot understand why anyone would buy long term Treasury debt at 3.9%.

25 posted on 02/23/2023 10:54:43 AM PST by zeestephen (43,000)
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To: zeestephen

“Once again - I cannot understand why anyone would buy long term Treasury debt at 3.9%.”

Long-term Bond Funds and others use Bonds to balance risk levels. We have to remember their horizon is infinite compared to ours.


26 posted on 02/23/2023 11:06:21 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself. 111 is the key.)
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To: SaxxonWoods

I’ll take it you are correct about 95, I’m going from memory. I was so busy in ‘95 I didn’t even notice.

I can’t see much of either growth or recession from this graph in ‘95.

This is not a rebuttal but a discussion. I see credit card debt increasing. Joe consumer is trying to hold on to the past or not making ends meet in the present. Something has to give and that is a slowdown. Can’t happen soon enough and we move on. Thing is, as you say wages are higher, people are still bidding for people. The local lumber yard is one example, losing people to better jobs faster than the lumber business is falling off.

I agree wholeheartedly that we had 2 years of free lunch and the bill is being paid and it will take time to get that done. Stupidly, I did not harvest as much of the free lunch as I want to have done.


27 posted on 02/23/2023 2:52:42 PM PST by Sequoyah101 (Procrastination is just a form of defiance.)
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