Posted on 02/21/2023 8:05:04 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Something is up at the Ukraine/Moldova/Romania border on/near the Danube. Lots of big fires on FIRMS on the Ukrainian side in southwest Odesa oblast. It’s been like that for the past 2-3 days and the US and NATO have been watching the area closely for the past. Very weird. Maybe Putin is trying to make his move on Moldova airport and hitting Ukrainian air defense in that area. There is no way a beach landing would work in that area.
“Russia intends to capture the airport in Chisinau and transfer the military there
This was announced by the Prime Minister of Moldova Dorin Rechan.”
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1628103615633149952
Time for Romania to send troops into Moldova.
It looks like NATO fighters are ready to shoot down any Russian aircraft that cross over Romania at the Danube Delta on their way to Moldova. It’s a narrow corridor from Ukraine to Moldova and that’s the area with all the fires now. Putin could overfly Romania on purpose and dare NATO to shoot down some of his transports. It will be no problem for him to sacrifice some of his troop as an escalation.
Shoot them down.
Also today:
Putin rescinded his 2012 decree that called for “searching for ways to resolve the Transnistrian problem based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova.”
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1628013898900045827
Joe Biden unscheduled meeting with Moldovan president Maia Sandu in Warsaw. The US is concerned about Russia’s efforts regarding Moldova. Vladimir Putin today canceled the decree by which he recognized the sovereignty of the Republic of Moldova in the Transnistria issue.
https://twitter.com/c_constantin/status/1628117485101654016
That's the rumor, that Russia will try to capture Chisinau Airport. They quite possibly have built up an FSB led force of Russians and Moldovans to try to take the airport. Will it be a Hostomel or a Pristina? As for amphibious landing, I agree, unlikely. But whatever strategy, Russia is pretty willing to throw meat into the grinder, and remember just last week they re-struck the Zatoka Bridge.
Exactly with the Zatoka bridge. I think Russia is hitting Ukrainian AA defenses with drones right now on the Ukrainian side of the Danube near Lisky and Vylkove. And all sides are being quiet about it.
NATO pilots should intercept and force the RU aircraft to land at the nearest Romanian airfield.
If the RU aircraft fails to follow directions, shoot it down.
If the RU aircraft does land in Romania, then the aircraft should be parked in a remote area and escorted by an IFV or tank.
If anyone on the aircraft exits with a firearm, blow up the entire plane.
It would help if NATO has a pilot that speaks Russian.
As they exit the plane, they should be offered asylum.
That AA could be targeted to attack Odesa, though. I expect we’ll see some hybrid war escalations from Russia (cut internet cables, etc.) before something even bigger like an attack on Moldova.
FtrPilot: Thoughts on Jdam-ER vs GLSDB?
“US Is Giving Ukraine a Long-Range GPS-Guided Bomb That Can Hit Targets Miles Away”
“Extended-Range Jdam bomb flies 45 miles after aircraft launch”
“Undisclosed US sale identified as “precision guided munition””
“The US is providing Ukraine a long-range GPS-guided bomb made by Boeing Co. that’s capable of hitting targets 45 miles away, industry officials said.
The Pentagon hasn’t formally acknowledged it’s sending the modified version of Boeing’s Joint Direct Attack Munition, saying only it would send “precision aerial munitions” as part of a $1.85 billion package announced December 21. But two people familiar with the matter confirmed the weapon is the Extended-Range Jdam, known as the Jdam-ER. They asked not to be identified because the detail hasn’t been announced.
Pentagon spokeswoman Kelly Flynn said US won’t identify the munition, citing operational security. Jdam kits are used by the Air Force and US Navy and have been sold to over 26 countries.
The Jdam-ER can be bolted on unguided bombs ranging from 500 pounds to 2,000 pounds. Once dropped, the bomb deploys wings, allowing it to glide up to 45 miles and tripling the range of the original weapon.
The extended range kits “will significantly increase precision firepower using available stocks of munitions,” said Rebecca Grant, an Air Force systems specialist and president of IRIS Independent Research. “I’d bet this is one of the accelerated proposals put in motion” by Undersecretary for Acquisition William LaPlante, she said.
Extended Range kits can be used “to attack Russian front lines or their second echelon rear areas in Ukraine,” Grant said. “Watch for a spread of firepower, including Jdam-ER whenever Ukraine wants to push forward.”
Boeing on Jan. 20 received a $40.5 million order from the Air Force under an existing Jdam contract. The job calls for completion by June 30. The award indicates the US and Ukraine have cobbled together a method by which Soviet-era fighter jets flown by Ukraine can program and launch the Jdam-ER.
The Extended Range Jdam joins Boeing’s new bomb-tipped missile, the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, that’s demonstrated a range of 81 miles among the new weapons the Pentagon’s sending Ukraine announced this month.”
I believe Russia would have to capture Chisinau Airport before landing troops and equipment by air. That's what appears to have been planned according to the intelligence provided to Moldova. Russian aircraft would stay just outside of Romanian airspace, well outside of Odesa's air defenses. And they would arrive with Russian fighter escorts. Still, clearing the area between the Danube and Dniester to allow safe overflight is easier said than done. And the west could still rush some air defenses into Moldova.
I guess it's not out of the question that NATO would directly block a Russian invasion at the request of the Moldovan government. IMO he easiest way to accomplish that is to secure the airport or close the airspace.
I would hope that JDAM-ERs would ship immediately.
The biggest issue would be coordination required to provide target coordinates from Army to Air Force in real time to support Close Air Support and time sensitive targets.
Another issue is that some target locations could expose UKR MiG aircraft to RU mobile SAM systems.
If mobile SAMs are transmitting, then HARMs would easily take them out.
Ship them NOW!
In that case, the intercept would be a stern conversion where the NATO fighters would fly a path where they are never painted by the RU fighters. The NATO fighters should roll out 2-4 miles behind the RU fighter aircraft.
If the RU fighters separate from the transport, shoot them down.
If I were in the lead NATO fighter, I would instruct them all to slow to 200 knots and lower their landing gear.
If they don't lower their landing gear, shoot them down.
.
And the west could still rush some air defenses into Moldova.
Station UKR special forces with MANPADs around the airport.
RuZZia’s offensive has been underway for a few weeks now. They’ve accomplished very little. They MAY eventually take Bakhmut, but that isn’t even a sure bet. If the RuZZian Boys on FR are expecting some great RuZZian power surge, they are going to be disappointed.
RuZZia’s offensive may have already peaked.
“Western officials I’ve spoken to are surprised Russia began its offensives so early. There’s little concern about new axes of attack. Belarus is a distraction. Russia’s ammunition problems are real & will manifest in spring.”
“On top of this, Russia’s air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure is largely a failure. Ru mil were confident in autumn they could crush grid. Now limited to around one barrage per month. PGM availability for this year is assessed to be *half* of what they expended in 2022.”
“”We have seen no indications that the main elements of Ukrainian reserve forces have been utilised to limit Russian movement...Most if not all attacks are repelled using units that had already been deployed in these areas.” Ukraine keeping powder dry.”
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1627416077150855169
‘a new weapon’ or RuZZians chasing the Ghost of Kyiv.
“Russian air defense in the occupied cities of Donetsk, Makiivka, Mariupol Ilovaisk and elsewhere are firing wildly into the air. Extremely peculiar. There are rumors especially around Mariupol that Ukraine is using a new weapon. “
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1628166770996420616
“There are multiple reports on social media about explosions in rear areas of Donetsk Oblast’s Russian-occupied part - in Donetsk, Makiivka, Ilovaisk, Debaltseve Mariupol
Many explosions reportedly sounded like air defense activities. Mariupol heard 9-11 explosions”
“Russian Telegram channels speculate that it may be the first use of the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) by the Ukrainian army. The GLSDB has the operational range up to 150 km.”
“”So far, it’s known about 11 explosions in the Russian-occupied [Mariupol]. The first blast occurred at 22:33” - Mariupol city council in exile
The council says it has info on two hits “probably in places where the enemy forces are concentrated.””
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1628161127103209475
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