Posted on 10/24/2022 7:23:27 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Oct 2e, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Russian Su-30 Flanker Nosedives Into Residential Area <——
The Su-30 just took off on a flight from the nearby aircraft plant when it dived into the ground resulting in a large fireball.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/su-30-flanker-nosedives-in-residential-area-in-russia
Siberia
—
-—> Russian Pilot’s Ejection From An Su-25 Seen In Incredible Headcam Video <——
The incredibly violent action sequence of a Russian Su-25 Frogfoot pilot ejecting looks like something out of a video game, but it’s not.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-pilots-ejection-from-an-su-25-seen-in-incredible-headcam-video
Excerpt:
... claim the incident occurred in Russia, near Belgorod, not far from the Ukraine border, with the jet clipping a power line
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
No major changes.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area: no changes.
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Update:
For about a week or so maybe even more 10 days, nothing major happened on the front line; no major developments. Its unclear why Ukrainian troops stopped their offensive at the moment when they could continue against the Russians, who were on the verge of panic, retreating. Now the front line as a whole stabilized; a little bit because Russian Command got time to recover, to gain control, and to get some reinforcements. They are not the best quality reinforcements, but still its better to have something than nothing.
••Strategic Topics:
••Nuclear Attack:
Yesterday, Zelinsky mentioned that Russia can attack his bunker in Kiev when destroy, and he was calling for the West to retaliate. Looking like a martyr there, so I thought - that’s a little bit hysterical, but it turns out there is some some smoke and fire.
The Russian Minister of Defense came out today and tried to accuse Ukraine of preparing dirty atomic bomb attack, and called UK, US, France, Turkey to discuss all of this. This is definitely a dangerous development, because all of this is due to incompetent leaders; they tend to announce things in advance, before it actually happens, they tend not to do it suddenly abruptly, because they don’t know how to manage in a truly real life situation when things needs to be done quickly.
Because they they have a super bureaucratic system of of disempowered ??cokes??, and that system is unable to react quickly in a good, in a professional way to the changing environment. This is both Russia and Ukraine and most of the countries are, to be fair, not far away. That’s why I said that this is dangerous, because this usually happens in that way. Hopefully, the conversation with the US will cool down a little bit because this is Ukraine doesn’t plan Ukraine cannot do that stuff simply meaning there is simply no incentive to do anything like that. Ukraine has a radioactive isotopes.
What is this dirty bomb? Its just radioactive isotopes and whatever you want different kinds, and then you use regular explosive and pack those radioactive isotopes in whatever container you want put regular explosive throat over the territory and it explodes in the air and its spread, disseminates those radioactive isotopes over whatever territory - the higher you blow it up, the more coverage is going to happen, and you spraying radiation over whatever territory you want.
Its not going to be a huge territory, its relatively small territory, because its not gonna fly too far away; the only thing is that it can be spread by wind. But its more about the fact this this happened that means it opened up the door for the next turn of the confrontation.
When Chernobyl blew up that was a dirty atomic bomb because what it what it did - its sprayed all of those radioactive isotopes on the large territory. The cloud went north and northwest of Kiev, and then it is the strongest the fact was here in this area of Belarus. Even now there are dead zones where nobody lives; people were removed and its towns and villages that completely abandoned where there’s high radiation.
••China & India & UK & US Policy - mostly Skipped:
China, the whole system, the model is broken, now the second model is broken too; there is no vision what to do next in China and that’s the sign that Xi Jinping was re-elected is a testament that there is no vision; they don’t know what to do. Keep the status quo that’s sign a weakness, its not sign of strength. I’m talking about as a system of where its going in a long term perspective. There is no vision there.
There are a lot of like Russian tankers at sea, and then they meet with another tanker they reload that crew to that more normal tanker and then it goes to the international market and sells it as if its some whatever code that came from from the Persian Gulf or whatever something like that but its like a smuggling I guess say that way so what happened is that Russia does not have actually the
Russian government Russia does not have big fleet of the tankers; they actually have very few so it was like easy relatively easy for for the last to choke it off so now they buying up this tankers around the world to to have more under their disposal then let’s actually mention a little bit about Ukraine so
Ukrainian prime minister went to Germany or UK I don’t remember one of those countries and in a media there he said we broke we are beggars, and we cannot survive without continuing financial help.
He says we don’t have money to even pay pensions and don’t have money to pay public employees; the state coffers are empty, and whatever it comes from the West.
The economy in Ukraine is wiped out - potential changes in the US Parliament coming this November, but those newly elected members are going to be there starting from January. Sometime in January there could be a significant negative change of of this international situation for Ukraine.
They’re a part of the Republican Party that wants to continue financing the war, but definitely a situation is developing in a negative way for Ukraine. The last point I want to like to make: many supermarkets in Kherson are completely empty just empty shells, clean, perfectly empty shelves. That might be another indication that Russian troops probably gonna be withdrawn from the Kherson Bridgehead sooner than later.
Because the people who control them right now, they are pretty well connected, and they know when to stop bringing new inventory - they understand that they’re gonna lose that inventory if the if Russian troops are withdrawn.
••Energy Infrastructure Attacks - mostly Skipped:
It takes about 9-18 months to repair all those transformers so still gonna take quite a bit of time, but its easier; they decided to focus exclusively on on the energy distribution system, eventually that will, if they continue and they looks like they continue, it will disintegrate Ukrainian energy system into islands. They will continue destroying each island separately.
••Taiwan:
Russia is super excited that Xi Jinping was re-elected because from their perspective. The attack on Taiwan is imminent, and from the Russian perspective is that US is gonna get distracted, and all of the energy resources will go to help in Taiwan. Potentially even with direct war with China so US is going to get tied up there. US will significantly reduce help to Ukraine or even stop it, and that creates opportunity for Russia to to conquer the rest of the Ukraine - that’s very simple logic on the Russian side.
••North Luhansk’:
Ukrainian site tried a probing attack directed towards Svatore - didn’t go anywhere its just a probing attack; it is a typical style of the Soviet Army in World War II, which was super, super inefficient, and it caused a lot of casualties among the soldiers - otherwise the situation is more or less stable. Russian side is doesn’t look to have enough to continue pushing Ukrainian side. Why Ukrainian side is not moving forward is a big puzzle.
••Kherson Bridgehead:
Things here also stable, nothing has been going on; there no reports of the major HIMARS attack. so seems like situation here is like on the pose overall by both sides and the more important is that Ukrainian side is not in a way consistent in terms of keeping this supplying lines not cut off but semi-cut off or significantly cut off so in other words the Ukrainian side would attack for whatever several days three four days right it would create problems but then they would release the valve and the flow of the ammunition goes again right so
This is I would say poor execution here; otherwise Ukrainian troops are not attacking - Russia has quite a bit of troops here or at least on the superficial level in terms of the units from number of the units - they very small in size even though they do receive some some reinforcements but I would say that there is a balance of power.
Your quote is a bit out of context isn’t it! After a winter with no heat, food, being kicked out of whatever shelter they have, robbed and murdered by desperate Ukrainian conscripts... with no end in sight. Yes, the feelings toward the most corrupt regime in Ukrainian history will likely turn a corner.
In the meantime you will still be sitting in your easy chair cheering for Zelinsky’s neo-Nazi subordinates and living in your cold warrior fantasy world. What a putz!
OTOH, on a percentage basis, US military production has barely moved the needle. For example, HIMARS rockets production MAY have increased to 10k / year from 9k / year. Launcher production has not increased at all, although there are "plans" to increase it from 60 / year to 96 / year in 2023 for US purchases.
Of existing inventories, what we've sent is pathetic. Again for example, we have delivered to Ukraine 20 HIMARS. We have 410 HIMARS remaining, plus whatever of that 60 / year is still in the pipeline for 2022 delivery. Moreover, as has been hashed out on FR already, the only real need / use of large numbers of HIMARS is... to take out Russian manpower and equipment / supplies in a big land war in Europe.
The Poles are no fools. They have ordered 500 HIMARS, and since US production capacity is NOT being ramped up seriously, they've also ordered I believe 288 of a quite capable (and possibly even more flexible) newer South Korean system.
IIRC, Zelenskyy has asked for 100 HIMARS. I agree with him: THAT is the scale of what is needed. If the South Koreans can quickly supply 50 or more of their system, I'm all for the EU funding them.
Even given the modest weapons deliveries, NATO logistics will keep the Ukie army fed and warmly clothed. Civilians are another matter and many may flee, but, then that pool can be tapped for labor to assist with bringing supplies in.
Noted. It makes sense that the discount is a %.
Much of the Russian crude (not all) typically brings with it higher refining costs, AND some comes from “difficult” environments, so that plays in to this as well.
The transport issue(s) will be even more “interesting”, I suspect.
LOL!!!
The Russians obviously have been pulling back somewhat for the winter. This gives the Ukrainians and the boosters reason for celebration. It also allows the Russians to pretend that they are making some concessions so that the EU can claim victory and back off so that they can try to deal with their own self-inflicted economic wounds this winter. The Ukrainians are the ones who are stretched to the limit and a winter with extreme shortages of everything is not going cause their situation to improve.
Putin does not need the approval of anyone to regroup and continue whatever he wants to next Spring. Russia will be flooded with cash for their energy products over the winter and will be restocking their military supplies. At that point the new Republican majorities in congress are unlikely to approve massive new expenditures abroad and will likely do all they can to defund the huge boondoggles already in place. None of this bodes well for the Soros and Western Intelligence agency installed puppet Zelinsky or his jack-booted neo-Nazi true believers.
Kadyrov Chechens HIMARed at their base in Kherson today with at least 40 killed and 60 wounded. They posted video of themselves after the attack. A classic video breaking on Twitter right now,
Before the BOOM!
Kadyrov’s fighters in a school reportedly before Ukraine’s precison strikes with M142 HIMARS
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1584650834620866561
I wouldn’t be surprised if UA found out their location from the video.
Certainly, some people recognized the interior of the school.
The Kadyrovites posted video of themselves in front of the school, not just inside. I wonder if they’re still going to get their 72 goats in paradise for being so stupid.
I’m for giving 72 goats to the family of RuZZian who dies.
The GOP Congress was more hawkish on Ukraine than Obama in 2014. No reason not to expect the same in the next Congress with Biden. The rest of your prognostication is equally inaccurate. Dream on. LOL.
Again what’s with the open hatches
Some cameras include location data (latitude and longitude) in the metadata.
“ I’m for giving 72 goats to the family of RuZZian who dies.”
That could literally be a million goats per month, at recent kill rates.
500 killed per day, is 15,000 per month (as many per month as the Soviet Union lost in a whole decade in Afghanistan.
One analyst estimates that 500,000 mobniks have been activated already, by looking at stats for early marriages, allowed only for them (https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1584567674352197633 ). Maybe they will call up over a million by year’s end.
Although we have seen many mobniks just thrown Willy nilly into combat initially, in a few months, they Should be able to train and equip another large task force, for another big push somewhere (maybe Kyiv), even as they continue to waste their bodies profligately Across the board as speed bumps and cannon fodder.
Likely they will not enjoy anywhere near the degree of superiority that they did at the start of the war, for Air, Artillery, Armor or deep strike missiles - just more bodies, poorly trained, poorly led and poorly motivated. We will likely see them coming months in advance (already) and have their kill boxes waiting for them.
After that sort of push fails early next year, Russia should be approaching a reasonably demilitarized state, having mostly expended the old Soviet stockpiles, and be down to a conventional weapons stockpile more like Greece.
Putin is going to take a lot of other Russians out with him. A mountain of dead bodies.
Send more Artillery!
Boy, that's gotta be a real morale builder.
“ Again what’s with the open hatches”
It probably stinks something fierce in there, with those guys not getting regular showers or laundry.
2023 is not going to be a repeat of 2014. We have massive inflation, massive deficits, rampant crime, wide open borders and Biden is pushing us to the brink of nuclear war. People have lost their appetite for you and Linda Graham’s Neocon obsession with supporting a corrupt regime made up of neo-Nazi shysters to the tune of Billions of dollars. I guess you missed the memo... MAGA supporters are not the same as a bunch of deep state RINOs. So sorry you missed the memo.
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