Posted on 04/25/2020 10:56:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Maybe not, but it's supported by some very coherent political principles.
Hinderaker has been good on this from the get-go.
According to that model, my state was supposed to be overrun with patients and people dying without even be able to see the hospital back in the end of March, but magically just two more weeks and will have this horrible peak has been said since then, of course every single time they are wrong.
Rather than guessing, he should go to the source. It's a statistical model, using empirical data collected in the US and overseas. They've documented it well, including the source code. Their main article on it is at:
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/RA_COVID-forecasting-USA-EEA_042120.pdf
They intended the model to be used for predicting hospital resources needed. It's getting misused and they seem to be allowing for that to happen. Now they are predicting dates for relaxing containment, but are basing that on one reported case per million of population!
wait - what? A bad computer model????
Same folks that ginned up the one used for Glo-bull warming, no doubt.
Science usta be about science, not chasing grant money for politicians...
They’ve done it with Georgia. St first they said our peak would be April 13. Now they say May 5 There deaths per day are some number they pick out of a hate. If you look at what they are projecting for deaths you will see stupid numbers .... range is 4-435. Geez that’s like me predicting that Patkfield California will experience an earthquake today
Yeah Fauci principles.... panic them and we will get more power and more money
All I know is that we’re getting 30,000 cases and 2,000 deaths. We’ve plateaued for a while now.
I meant to say daily.
RE: We’ve plateaued for a while now.
What is the trend if the curve today?
It is based on firm scientific principles, with correctly applied math.
It just uses the (so far) wrong assumptions about spread.
You see, the secret sauce for IHME’s sorcery is the Democratic Party, the far left media, Bill Gates, George Soros and the rest of them.
They simply jack up the predicted coronavirus deaths in each state depending on if the state is thinking of opening up their economy or not.
We can’t have any of that can we?
The economy must be crushed at all costs so Trump can be defeated in November.
I think we may be looking at slow and steady for quite a while.
It depends on too many unknowns. Unknown #1 is the role of environmental contamination, and whether or not there is a “tipping point” past which wide area decontamination is required.
The difference between Wuhan and Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou is very striking, and probably important.
Joke post?
Please don’t make me laugh too much ok?
It’s a crap model. They pick a number in their eange. The range runs across stupid values. eg 5-430 deaths in a day
Nonsense.
They made (probably, hopefully) the wrong assumptions about spread of a new disease with unknown spread characteristics.
How wrong their assumptions were, we won't know until we open up again.
No we are not.
Unless you are accepting the fake death figures from New York as real. They are not.
So what are the real numbers?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.