Numbers Don’t Line Up: Here Are The Things That Kill More People Each Day Than Covid-19 Has So Far

Right Journalism ^ | 04.09.2020 | Alex D.

[JimRed]

South Carolina – 40 deaths.

Gee, we should'a booked our Easter time share weeks this year! But Mrs. JimRed was scheduled for a hip replacement at the end of March (postponed, of course), so...

[fireman15]

Regarding U.S. shelter-in-place orders, it has unsurprisingly limited flu and predictable outdoor activity deaths.

I agree with you about how contagious this is. In this area the question has not been if you will get it, but when you had it. On the fire department that I retired from 11 people tested positive; only one had symptoms. Who knows how many had it and recovered? Only antibody tests will unravel that mystery.

In this area hospital ICUs began to clear and deaths slowed to a trickle over 2 weeks ago before the “stay at home” order could have had any effect. Why? Because the virus had already run through the area starting some time in December according to University of Washington researchers. The virus picked the low hanging fruit, the vulnerable people and since then few more have gotten seriously ill and died.

Our death toll is now barely over 400 statewide. And because of a lack of testing most of the early deaths were “presumptive” meaning they could have been from any condition that causes pneumonia. CDC guidelines still specify that no testing is needed to call a death from pneumonia “presumptive coronavirus”. The total expected by August is around 600 continuously revised downward from the thousands initially predicted almost every day. Do I need to tell you that this is less than normal bad flu season numbers?

The government actions are nothing short of insanity in this area at this point in time.

[Amendment10]

"The government actions are nothing short of insanity in this area [emphasis added] at this point in time."

Noting that I’m paraphrasing WH, they have already indicated that the “one size fits” all shelter-in-place orders are far from ideal, temporary brute force way to reduce total deaths from “stealth” 2019-nCoV.

By the way, given the kick in the teeth to the economy, U.S. flunks pandemic preparedness imo. In other words, PDJT has got to stop measuring the strength of the economy by how many records economy is breaking under his watch, employment numbers for example.

In fact, let’s define robust economy by how many working class people don’t have to live from paycheck to paycheck anymore. That’s why pandemic has hurt so many people who otherwise haven’t had to deal with virus.

The good news is that PDJT has indicated that he looks forward to opportunity to rebuild FDA, CDC, also bringing medical profession and drug manufacturing back to U.S., like he has rebuilt military.

[Cobra64]

The article is a mess written by a frustrated novelist.

[daniel1212]

Your chart (use Firefox, and select - highlight - the full portion of a web page you want to copy and paste, and then right click and choose "View selection source," and copy and paste that).

From WorldOMeter:

Apr. 8	88,457	6,414	8%
Apr. 7	82,043	7,383	10%
Apr. 6	74,660	5,227	8%
Apr. 5	69,433	4,737	7%
Apr. 4	64,696	5,799	10%
Apr. 3	58,897	5,715	11%
Apr. 2	53,182	5,979	13%
Apr. 1	47,203	4,890	12%
Mar. 31	42,313	4,537	12%
Mar. 30	37,776	3,709	11%
Mar. 29	34,067	3,204	10%
Mar. 28	30,863	3,518	13%

[daniel1212]

the increase in reported infections that makes NY the epicenter corresponds to (using Politico stats, since they show #'s of tests given) the far greater amounts of tests given 365,153 as of 04/09/2020 8:55 AM EDT) and showing 149,316 positives and 6,268 deaths, out of a total pop. of 19,453,561.

In comparison, California has only done 144,264 tests, showing 16,957 positives and 442 deaths, while the state has a total pop. of 39,512,223.

Note however, that the CDC allows some leeway in assigning the cause of death: “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death [emp. by CDC].” “the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.” (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf)

Second, consider some demographics (as should be the case with Italy):

New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile...

New York is the most populous city in the United States.

There is a birth in New York City every 4.4 minutes... a death every 9.1 minutes. In 2015 the NYT reported less, that each year around 50,000 people die in New York city.

Over . 3 million of New York City’s residents are foreign-born; over one-quarter arrived in 2000 or later.New York City has the largest Chinese population of any city outside of Asia

(https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/planning-level/nyc-population/population-facts.page)

Also, based upon Table 31a : Death Summary Information by Race/Ethnicity New York State - 2015 then since 153,623 died that year then that translates into 420,88,5 deaths per day for the state

As for New York city, with a figure of one death every 9.1 minutes (2015) then that translates into 420,88,5 deaths per day.

9.1 per minute x 60.00 = 546.00 hour x 24.00 =13,104.00 a day x 365.00 = 4,782,960.00 a year for New York city.

“Numbers Don’t Line Up: Here Are The Things That Kill More People Each Day Than Covid-19 Has So Far” Tell that to NYC (779 dead yesterday, compared to ~200 without Coronavirus).

daniel1212 to MAGAthon

Dr. Anthony Fauci... admitted that seven out of eight deaths attributed to the virus were really caused by one or more other comorbidities. In other words, the patient was on death’s door whether the virus got to them or not.

Dr. Deborah Birx, who everybody seems to like because she dresses so well, admitted those death totals are inflated as a matter of policy.

The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of someone’s life.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths, despite other nations doing the opposite.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

“The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that,” she added. - https://thehayride.com/2020/04/confirmed-theyre-inflating-wuhan-virus-death-rates-nationally/

the CDC allows some leeway in assigning the cause of death: “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death [emp. by CDC].” “the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.” (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf)

[FewsOrange]

“In other words, the patient was on death’s door whether the virus got to them or not.”

Just because someone has other health conditions does not mean they are at “deaths door”. Both of my parents-in-law have conditions that would put them in a high risk category for covid. They have had them for years and they are not at deaths door.

[FewsOrange]

“As for New York city, with a figure of one death every 9.1 minutes (2015) then that translates into 420,88,5 deaths per day.

9.1 per minute x 60.00 = 546.00 hour x 24.00 =13,104.00 a day x 365.00 = 4,782,960.00 a year for New York city.”

I assume math is not your first language.

[deport]

He’s dead now? Did he have one of the following:
fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties.

If so sounds like Coronavirus to me.....

Tag’em and send him on down the line...

Next

[Richard Kimball]

Uh, yeah. A death every nine minutes, not nine deaths per minute. It’s roughly 158 deaths a day out of a population of a little less than nine million.

[daniel1212]

The death rates, absent Covid19, for hypertension is .49% per year. The death rate from asthma is virtually zero. The death rate for diabetes is .24%. Only 1 in about 500 people die each year from these conditions. More than 50% of the underlying conditions have a negligible chance of causing death. So if someone is positive for Covid19, dies, and has asthma, there is a 99.99% chance they died because of the Covid19.

50% (of the underlying conditions) will not work for perspective and precedent unless these result in proportionate restrictions on the economy and freedoms, but using the same "1 in about 500 people" measure, how many Americans on average die a day year round from Covid-19 out of 333 million?

The point is not that some efforts are to be made to reduce this highly infectious but rarely deadly disease (for most under 65), but that how extensive these all-ages severe restrictions are must be judged relative to their cost versus effects.

And since over 90 to 100 Americans die every day from motor vehicle accidents (38,000 in 2018), why do we not require garage-in-place except for essential travel, and then require SUV -distancing of 6 car-lengths (or bumper cars)?

And why not anything close to the draconian restrictions in regard to the flu, since according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html

[daniel1212]

Regarding U.S. shelter-in-place orders, it has unsurprisingly limited flu and predictable outdoor activity deaths.

Or the Total US Deaths in March 2020 are Actually Down 15% from Average of Prior Four Years is at least partially due to liberally assigning death to Covid, as is increasingly reported. See #46 above.

[rollo tomasi]

Without social distancing and awareness, the Villages for instance, would clog up the hospitalization in Central Florida impacting normal operations if everything was opened up.

You need to add (Way more numbers) of corona impacted patients along with the normal everyday occurrences and procedures. It would be a nightmare, and manna from Heaven for personnel injury attorneys.

Powers that be are buying time for:

Treatment

Vaccine carefully mitigated through the antibodies of those who recovered.

Time is running out, if not we are going Star Trek/Weimar Republic/Modern Monetary Theory and Practices (Probably already been there) mode. With Keynes you were suppose to pretend to payback what you borrowed when times stabilized, lol.

[daniel1212]

Just because someone has other health conditions does not mean they are at “deaths door”. Both of my parents-in-law have conditions that would put them in a high risk category for covid. They have had them for years and they are not at deaths door.

So you agree "that if a patient died of, e.g., pneumonia, and was believed to have been exposed to COVID-19, the death certificate should say that COVID-19 was the cause of death even though the patient was never tested, or never tested positive, for that disease" as Dr. and Minnesota state senator Scott Jensen stated the Minnesota Department of Health taught?

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

You’re wasting your time trying to talk sense to these people who post this garbage every day.

[daniel1212]

“As for New York city, with a figure of one death every 9.1 minutes (2015) then that translates into 420,88,5 deaths per day. 9.1 per minute x 60.00 = 546.00 hour x 24.00 =13,104.00 a day x 365.00 = 4,782,960.00 a year for New York city.”

I assume math is not your first language.

Indeed, though the 420,88,5 deaths per day is for the entire state based on data from here . Otherwise could you kindly tell me where I messed up so I can correct it for the future? The 9.1 deaths ever minute comes from here .

[CTrent1564]

I am not disputing the population density of NYC, plus the primary mode of transportation (Subway system) contributed to the large numbers of NYC.

My only points are that to compare it to the FLU is not accurate or a valid comparison, between the fall of 1917 and spring of 2018, which is now how we define Flu season, almost 700,000 Americans died. Today, we have vaccines that can mitigate infections and we know how to medicate and treat it. Still, on average, about 30,000 people still die during flu-seasons.

We are already above 16,000 basically in March/April. The comparison again to Heart Disease and Cancer, again, not valid. Heart disease is not contagious, nor is Cancer. Heart disease deaths are the culmination, largely, of years of lifestyle choices, heavy smoker, poor diet, lack of exercise, etc, etc. Cancer is also largely related to behavior, some also genetic, but Smoking again highly correlated with all types of cancer.

My guess is people are worrying that this COVID-19 could turn out to be the 1917-18 Flu epidemic. And I agree, this is more likely to impact densely populated Metro areas that less densely populated areas.

So the President, short of martial law, can’t shut down each state. The President can, legally, regulate and restrict Interstate Commerce (that is in the Constitution). So if you think about it, what is actually going on in each state is more Jeffersonian, what the Feds can’t regulate is being dictated by the 50 Governors. So I think currently 9 of the 50 have not gone to full lock down, which is entirely within their rights under Constitution. But if those areas get hit hard, given how spread out people are, it will be harder and maybe less effective in getting supplies from the Federal Government to those states. Again, I don’t know how well those 9 states were prepared for something like this. Maybe they all are well prepared.

If they are, good for them.

[daniel1212]

Uh, yeah. A death every nine minutes, not nine deaths per minute. It’s roughly 158 deaths a day out of a population of a little less than nine million.

Thank you! My old mind was awash in data and it's 6.59.3 deaths per hour x 24 = 158.23 a day and thus 57,753.95 a year. Correct?

How appropriate that the tittle of this thread is, "Numbers Don’t Line Up..."

[BobL]

Thanks, I was just a bit bored today, so I had some fun with the Bro’s.

[daniel1212]

Heart disease is not contagious, nor is Cancer. Heart disease deaths are the culmination, largely, of years of lifestyle choices, heavy smoker, poor diet, lack of exercise, etc, etc. Cancer is also largely related to behavior, some also genetic, but Smoking again highly correlated with all types of cancer.

Actually my comparison was with driving, which can be restricted to only essential travel and required 6 car length distancing in the light of over 90 Americans dying a day, year round, year after year. But the cost vs. benefits are judged as not warranting that, whereas quarantining all ages and placing the economy in extended safe mode is.