Posted on 03/31/2020 2:27:44 PM PDT by ransomnote
I haven’t heard any mention of the medications that are now being tried.
China isn’t thriving... 21 million phone accounts closed since the first of the year. A riot between two provincial police forces at a border bridge. Theaters opened, then closed again.
We don’t know what isn’t reported by our useless media outlets.
I don’t believe anything coming out of China. That said, China definitely took more stringent containment measures than the US has.
Models models models! The two geniuses even said the models assume. Assume nothing work with facts. So 65k are going to die in the next 2 weeks? Im not buying it. By the way how many deaths so far this year from the regular flu?
They are updating the models with real time data and the trendlines have come down from 2.2 million to under 100K.
In a pandemic that’s all you can do because the data are only a snapshot in time and it’s the trendline that tells you where things are headed.
and its not even NYC as a whole- its Queens & Brooklyn. Staten Island, the conservative area of NYC, is doing fine: 2091 cases with 66 fatalities https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/staten-island-hits-new-single-day-high-in-coronavirus-death-total.html
Based on assumptions
What happens when you assume?
That’s all you can do with human behavior. That’s why the model has a high and low interval.
Personally I have no faith in models. They have been terribly wrong in weather, in harvest yields, in freight tonnages, etc. When facts are entered into the model the model changes, drastically in cases. So what did the model actually show?
In this case, that the warnings are changing human behavior.
The model is providing real time information on the intersection of the virus’ behavior with human behavior.
That confidence interval (the high-low numbers) is created by using multiple assumptions of human behavior, so the high is low or no compliance with mitigation measures (stay home, social distancing), the low is high compliance.
As the real numbers change the curve tells us how our behavior is affecting the curve of viral infection.
I certainly have no faith in climate models because they have next to zero actual data because the climate hasn’t ever changed before in human experience. Most of the “data” is actually proxy which is a science word for wild ass guess.
Diseases epidemics happen all the time, over and over again and have been modeled many times. I think this is the first one to be modeled in real time with freely accessible data which is awesome.
I’m trusting in PDJT’s common sense and his bullshit detector. When this is over, I expect he will declassify what he knew about Chinese lying and the media will really be looking like the stupid quislings they are.
I pretty much agree with your post. What I am saying is use real data. Not an algorithm that can be flawed from the start. Standing at the podium and saying there could be 100K deaths when we are currently at 3.5k. Yes if we do this and if we do that. If is a variable. Variables are just that. The two spoke for an hour only to say at the end they don’t know.
The only thing I believe about this comes from PDJT. Not Fueicci (sp) or Brix. Even though they feed him alot. I trust them not.
With a new virus their are certain things that are unknowable and they have to make assumptions based on similar diseases until actual data starts to roll in.
This is especially problematic when China lies its ass off about what is really happening.
This Kung Flu seems to be quite a bit more infectious than influenza while being similar in virulence, maybe slightly more. That is, it will kill about the same number of people but in far less time, which would overwhelm hospitals making it more deadly.
We are trying to flatten a mountain into a molehill or a tall narrow bell into a wide flat bell.
Again I dont disagree. I just have a little different take. Luckily I am still among the working, I dont really do anything that I didnt do before. Carry sanitizer with me but I have done that for years. What I am curious about is with all this mitigation what are the flu numbers going show, I would think a big decline. I also live in a rural area that has a total of 16 cases in two counties.
We have 5, but the 5th is a truck driver and is being counted where he lives instead of where he was tested. Must suck to get sick on the road.
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