Interesting Twitter Debate with "Concerned" GOPer (he says)

self/twitter | 10/27/2012 | LS

[LS]

1) The absentee data remains constant with a 5 to 25 point GOP gain over 08 in almost every county. 2) the evidence from Adrian Gray's bellwether counties show a slight R lead in early votes. But evidence from all counties shows Ds way down in early voting. 3) the local evidence is that the Ds are a fraction of what they had in 08. 4) almost every poll shows Romney with a small to very large Indy lead.

All this adds up to a solid 3- 4-point R win.

[carton253]

Exactly...Ohio goes as the nation goes. She isn’t a voting trailblazer.

[Ravi]

Yes this point seems to confuse many people. Read mcdonald (huffpo pollster) on the side of the spreadsheet. Last primary refers to a primary the voter last voted in. So again if voter a voted in a democratic primary in 2006 or 2008 or 2010 primary but not 2012, they are still listed as democratic in their particular county again not unaffiliated. Definitions need to be clear so we are arguing the data correctly. The only way you lose your democratic tag is if you chose to vote in the republican or unaffiliated primary (there is such a thing) in 2012. How many dems do u know that did that? So the only democrats that are not labelled “democrats” imo would be college kids who have never voted in a primary. That would be franklin county.

Dems on twitter are trying to spread misinformation because they see the same data we are seeing and trying to confuse us by trying to obscure the definition of “last primary.” Dems, last primary does not mean what u think it means. They are a little scared.

Look at cuyahoga as an example. 183,000 “dems” have voted as of 10/26. How many actually voted in dem primary in 2012. Not many. However all of them have voted in dem primaries in either 2006 or 2008 or 2010. So that’s why so many of the voters in cuyahoga are labelled “dem.” It’s not because they voted only in 2012.

Don’t get distracted. This is a dem misinformation campaign.

One other point. Some of these counties go way back to the 2000 election to determine if u voted in a party primary. Other counties go back to 2006. Counties differ there. Also there is some mislabeling of voters but I don’t believe it is widespread - mostly clerical error.