THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

Original Work | 7-6-09 | James Oscar

[James Oscar]

#24 Today, 03:01 PM
Florida1
Editor-in-Chief & President Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,671

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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There are beginning to be some themes here that are not part of the philosophy at FluTrackers:

1) An overwhelmingly religious bias,

2) The mention of weapons and “thinning of the herd”.

We do not accept this at FT. We believe that we can have an impact and that “thinning of the herd” as part of “God’s will” is a immoral and eugenistic.

Is Darwin part of this series too. Natural selection of the “best and brightest”?

If it is, please do not post this series at FT anymore.

We are a place of hope and renewal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xjPO...eature=related
__________________
“May the long time sun
Shine upon you,
All love surround you,
And the pure light within you
Guide your way on.”

“Where your talents and the needs of the world cross, lies your calling.”
Aristotle

“In a gentle way, you can shake the world.”
Mohandas Gandhi

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#25 Today, 03:04 PM
James S
Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 22

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryM
I well remember the Mother Abigail threads on FR. Thanks for posting this thread. Apparently MA thinks the herd is about to be thinned.

I used to teach statistics before leaving academia to join the “real world” (decades ago). I know the math pretty well, plus the basic genetics involved with flu.

Watching current events unfold is like watching a slow motion train wreck. Only we’re all on the train.

We can brace for impact (i.e., prep), but no amount of preparation can get any of us off the train.

Larry,

Perhaps you should write this...LOL

Very well said.

BTW do you understand all the math behind the Chaos Theory and the Feigenbaum Number - I completely understand that it is a universal rhythm that lies between Order and Chaos but when I listen to MA try to explain it to me I get that very breezy feeling between my ears. Evidently it is some method to mathematical predict an epidemic by how rapid the cases double - or something like that.

On this subject I, more or less parrot MA, with very little understanding.

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#26 Today, 03:13 PM
Lizw
Senior User Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Stuart, Virginia
Posts: 233

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida1
There are beginning to be some themes here that are not part of the philosophy at FluTrackers:

1) An overwhelmingly religious bias,

2) The mention of weapons and “thinning of the herd”.

We do not accept this at FT. We believe that we can have an impact and that “thinning of the herd” as part of “God’s will” is a immoral and eugenistic.

Is Darwin part of this series too. Natural selection of the “best and brightest”?

If it is, please do not post this series at FT anymore.

We are a place of hope and renewal.

I’m hearing an increasing and distressing tone of fatalism in many posts. My dad, who was a pretty smart old guy, used to say, “Very little in life is as wonderful as you hope it will be, or as awful as you’re afraid it will be.” I’ve found that to be true throughout my life, and I’m using it as a guide here.

Let’s not give up on a species that has weathered and overcome some pretty awful things in the past.
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#27 Today, 03:53 PM
James S
Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 22

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida1
There are beginning to be some themes here that are not part of the philosophy at FluTrackers:

1) An overwhelmingly religious bias,

2) The mention of weapons and “thinning of the herd”.

We do not accept this at FT. We believe that we can have an impact and that “thinning of the herd” as part of “God’s will” is a immoral and eugenistic.

Is Darwin part of this series too. Natural selection of the “best and brightest”?

If it is, please do not post this series at FT anymore.

We are a place of hope and renewal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xjPO...eature=related

Everything about MA is hope and renewal. If I have given any other impression it is due to my poor ability to tell a very complex story.

There is no selection of the best and brightest in any of this work. There is a belief that this pandemic disproportionately targets the young, pregnant women and the ill.

I would urge you to allow this conversation to continue. There are many who believe that we should not be all “hope and roses”. It is a very unwise professional that does not explore less than perfect outcomes.

At any time you feel this thread violates your standards - then I will stand with your decision to pull the plug. But there is much to be said yet, and it is a conversation well worth having.

There is no eugenics involved in a very thoughtful and careful examination of our situation as a species vis a vis pandemics.

I will avoid the herd reference - it is entirely my creation in trying to describe pandemic ramifications.

And religious bias is not, in any way, representative of MA or my story. She is religious I am not, but it has nothing to do with this work. It is merely background to help understand some of the factors that go into a person’s worldview.

The truth of a Scientist’s work is in peer review. If I can finish the story you can determine the value of her work.

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#28 Today, 05:54 PM
AlaskaDenise
Editor, Senior Moderator Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,710

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida1
There are beginning to be some themes here that are not part of the philosophy at FluTrackers:

1) An overwhelmingly religious bias,

2) The mention of weapons and “thinning of the herd”.

We do not accept this at FT. We believe that we can have an impact and that “thinning of the herd” as part of “God’s will” is a immoral and eugenistic.

Is Darwin part of this series too. Natural selection of the “best and brightest”?

If it is, please do not post this series at FT anymore.

We are a place of hope and renewal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xjPO...eature=related

Sharon: I believe we need some clarification. FT allowed discussions of lab-created influenza as a bioweapon and conspiracy theories that have as their goal a “thinning of the herd.” I objected to allowing those topics. But now, when religious mentions of potential catastrophes is posted, that is not okay? I’m confused.

Also, I’ve never read any bible-basis for the “thinning the herd” is God’s will. If it’s there - please PM me.

When theories about the origins of a disease have their source in an unsubstantiated or unproven theory, I think FT should discourage those discussions. However, major disease disasters happen and we shouldn’t discourage discussion of that possiblity. Many people find comfort in their religous beliefs during difficult times and if helps them to cope, I will not criticize them.

I think the most productive use of time and resources is to do whatever we can to lessen morbidity and mortality - that is why I participate in FT. I don’t believe any religion promotes not doing this.

.
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#29 Today, 06:15 PM
Florida1
Editor-in-Chief & President Join Date: Feb 2006
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Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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We are a site that believes in the strength of the human spirit, but we steer away from specific religious references because there are so many different religions in the world that once we open that door we are changing the focus of FT.

We think that religion can be a great comfort in a disaster such as a pandemic and we have a forum for this here.

In addition, we want to keep the focus on fact based science. We do not want the site to become a “doomer” site filled with references to religious pre-determinism, the occult, mysticism, end of times, etc. etc.

Thanks!
__________________
“May the long time sun
Shine upon you,
All love surround you,
And the pure light within you
Guide your way on.”

“Where your talents and the needs of the world cross, lies your calling.”
Aristotle

“In a gentle way, you can shake the world.”
Mohandas Gandhi

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

---

Quote:
Originally Posted by prepdeb
Pray if it brings you comfort, but make sure the pantry isn’t empty.

Just my humble opinion.

I hope this isn’t getting too far OT, but there’s a little story I always use for this situation.

It’s about Mr. Jones and the hurricane. The weather bureau broadcast warnings about the severity of the storm. But Mr. Jones was trusting in God to take care of him, so he didn’t make any preparations. When it became apparent that the city was in the direct path of the storm, the governor issued a mandatory evacuation order, but Mr. Jones knew God would save him. As the winds grew worse and the water rose, sheriff’s deputies went door to door, offering people a ride out of the affected areas, but Mr. Jones was trusting in God and wouldn’t leave. His neighbor came by in a rowboat and begged him to escape while he could, but Jones was firm in his decision to stay. Finally, as water began to flood his home, a helicopter hovered overhead and a basket descended to lift him from danger. But Mr. Jones knew that God would take care of him, and he wouldn’t get in. Eventually the wind blew his house down into the flood waters and he drowned. Standing before God, he exclaimed, “I trusted you to take care of me! Why didn’t you?”

Indignantly, God replied, “I sent you the weather bureau forecast, a mandatory evacuation order, sheriff’s deputies with a car, your neighbor with a rowboat and even a helicopter! What more was I supposed to do?!”
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#32 Today, 07:33 PM
prepdeb
Moderator Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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LizW,
I’ve heard a slightly different version of that story before. It’s one of my favorites.
Another favorite is the donkey in the well story.
Both illustrate that (WE) often have the ability to make a difference in the outcome of circumstances. Thank you for reminding me of the other.

Donkey in the Well

One day a farmer´s donkey fell down into a well. The animal cried piteously for hours as the farmer tried to figure out what to do. Finally he decided the animal was old and the well needed to be covered up anyway, it just wasn´t worth it to retrieve the donkey.

He invited all his neighbors to come over and help him. They all grabbed a shovel and began to shovel dirt into the well. At first, the donkey realized what was happening and cried horribly. Then, to everyone´s amazement, he quieted down.

A few shovel loads later, the farmer finally looked down the well and was astonished at what he saw. With every shovel of dirt that hit his back, the donkey was doing something amazing. He would shake it off and take a step up. As the farmer´s neighbors continued to shovel dirt on top of the animal, he would shake it off and take a step up.

Pretty soon, everyone was amazed as the donkey stepped up over the edge of the well and trotted off.

Life is going to shovel dirt on you, all kinds of dirt. The trick to getting out of the well, is to shake it off and take a step up. Each of our troubles is a stepping stone. We can get out of the deepest wells just by not stopping, never giving up! Shake it off and take a step upward!
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#33 Today, 08:38 PM
James S
Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 22

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by prepdeb
Personally, I’m happy that religious theories are not allowed here.
.

As am I.

But I do not believe that viral evolution/recombination is a religious theory.
I did not notice anyone objecting to her personal religious beliefs when she did such amazing work with SARS and EBOLA.

It has always been her greatest fear that she can never tell how she really feels.

And it appears that I have done her no great service in trying to give a complete and full picture of the person behind the work.

But, until I am told to stop, I will attempt to tell the story of one of the most remarkable minds I have ever been privileged to witness.

Many of us have belief systems that are in contrast to the majority (I assume you realize how most people view the small community of people who follow dead chickens in Egypt?)

I, for example, believe that at moment I will hit the lottery and assume my rightful status - but this story is not about me (nor you) and those beliefs we object to - it is about a person of considerable achievements - who I have grown to love as a beautiful and caring soul.

And this is her story. She is very old and shy. I am trying to give her voice - perhaps we can debate those elements of MA’s work you object to - but let us give her the right to believe in the God of her choice and the chance to use her abilities to help others.

[Judith Anne]

The heck with the other site and their problems. Just keep telling us MA’s story, please. THAT is where our interest is.

[James Oscar]

[QUOTE=Nika;263714]I am very new here. I have been reading along in this thread.

You say she is very old and shy and that you seem to feel quite compelled to “tell her story”.

I am not religious by any means so my eyes really gloss over in the religious parts of your story. Cant be helped, am sorry.

My zen buddhism training is setting off HUGE red flags here tho... we are getting “her story” filtered through your ego and I cant shake this feeling I get that this is fiction.

With that going on for me - I feel uncomfortable reading what you are putting out there as “her word”.

At this point, I would rather hear it from her. No offense, really.[/QUOTE]

Nika,

I am certain that she would be happy to communicate with you or have you over for lunch. Her phone is hooked to a device called WEB TV - which allows her to use a wireless keyboard and turn the TV into an internet terminal. She is not a phone person.

When I finish with this piece I will give you that contact e-mail. During the summer she has a constant stream of ex-colleagues and admirers visiting her “cabin” (that is what she calls her Tahoe home) - she enjoys the company very much.

I try to bring her a little something when she is hosting lunch or a day at the lake - her favorite gifts are Chamomile tea and Frangelico, you will never go wrong with either.

[James Oscar]

Winter 2008

During the fall I visited twice more. These sessions became a sort of "Epidemiology/Virology for Dummies" training. Slowly MA tried to bring my knowledge level up a notch or two.

We spent quite a bit of time on Ebola (her specialty). Using her post from 2007 she explained how important viral recombination can be in a major pandemic.

Gene-swapping Ebola is a slippery target

Scientists have genetically sequenced Ebola viruses from gorillas and chimpanzees for the first time and found the virus to be more varied than previously thought.

Unexpectedly, they have also discovered that different strains of the virus can swap genes - a find that could make producing a vaccine much more difficult.

The Ebola virus causes fever and haemorrhage and kills up to 90% of people who catch it. It has spread cross Africa since 1976, infecting humans and apes sporadically and also hiding in bats.

An outbreak currently underway in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is so far thought to have infected 76 people. Ebola has also killed thousands of apes and has caused the lowland gorilla to be classed as endangered.

The genetic code for human versions of the viruses taken from humans has been sequenced before.

But, as sick animals are so difficult to find in the wild, and dead ones decompose quickly, until now no one has sequenced the virus from an ape.

Distributed virus

Eric Leroy and colleagues at the International Centre for Medical Research in Franceville, Gabon, managed to retrieve all or part of the Ebola virus from the remains of six gorillas and one chimpanzee. The viral genes were found to be similar to each other and to viruses from human victims in the same region.

But when all the sequences were analysed and compared, they clustered in two groups that, according to a model of how fast such viruses evolve, diverged from each other in 1976.

Furthermore, when all available samples - from both humans and apes - were analysed together, those collected after 1996 were found to be more similar to each other than to those collected (from humans alone) before 1996.

Leroy believes this shows that the virus is already distributed across central Africa and something else must be responsible for the current wave of outbreaks. Leroy says the genetic differences “add to evidence for the pre-existing distribution of the virus.”

Rare recombination

The results may not resolve the rivalry between competing theories about how Ebola spreads. Peter Walsh of the Max Planck Institute for Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, does not believe the virus is already distributed, and says different forms of it may simply be spreading together. “We have too few samples to know,” he says.

But both experts agree that the real surprise is that recent samples from humans show some genes from one cluster and some from another.

Such recombination is rare in RNA viruses and has never been seen before in filoviruses such as Ebola.

This recombination also means that a much wider range of genetic variants may emerge, making it harder to create an effective vaccine, says Walsh.

This is very bad news.

MA

67 posted on Tuesday, October 09, 2007 5:26:06 AM by Mother Abigail [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 57 | View Replies | Report Abuse][/I]

[Judith Anne]

Thank you, I’m going to start from the beginning of this thread and read the whole thing over again.

Please give my personal regards to MA when you see her, or visit via email, next.

[Domestic Church]

It is what I have called the time for celestial spanking.

[James Oscar]

July 2009

There are a couple of posts this morning that reflect on our conversation.

First this one by Dr. Niman

Commentary

1918 and 2009 H1N1 Similarities Confirm Recombination

Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
July 13, 2009

The new Nature report also assessed the immune response of different groups to the new virus. The most intriguing finding, according to Kawaoka, is that those people exposed to the 1918 virus, all of whom are now in advanced old age, have antibodies that neutralize the H1N1 virus. “The people who have high antibody titers are the people born before 1918,” he notes.

The above comments are in association with an upcoming publication in Nature demonstrating that patients born prior to 1918 still have antibodies that not only neutralize the 1918 pandemic virus, but also cross react with the 2009 pandemic swine H1N1. Similarly, the 2009 pandemic strain replicates more efficiently in the lungs of experiment mice and ferrets, which may explain the frequent deaths of previously healthy young adults. The targeting of this age group also parallels data from 1918.

These data further support the observation that the 90% of the polymorphisms in sequences of all 8 gene segments from the 1918 pandemic strain can be found in a human H1N1 isolate, WSN/33 or a swine H1N1 isolate, A/swine/Iowa/15/1930. These data support a scenario that mimics the data for 2009, which involves a swine H1N1 moving into a human population and spreading efficiently.

Data worldwide identify previously healthy young adults dying from the pandemic H1N1 infection. However, as the swine H1N1 spreads throughout the human population, opportunities for adaption to human host arise via acquisition of human polymorphisms. Interestingly, many of the new acquisitions of can be found in early H1H1 isolates, raising additional concerns that the 2009 pandemic H1N1 is following a path similar to the evolutionary path of 1918.

A recent isolate from Japan, A/Sapporo/1/2009 has a genetic HA backbone matching the recent oseltamilvir resistant isolate A/Hong Kong/1269/2009, but has acquired a new polymorphism found in WSN/33 as well as an additional polymorphism found in swine/Iowa/15/1930, further supporting evolution along the 1918 pathway.

Thus, the growing list of similarities between 2009 pandemic H1N1 and 1918 pandemic H1N1 continues to cause concern.

Then this on by Dr. Woodson

Re: New Study: 1918 flu survivors seem immune to swine flu

---

Not to pre-empt Dr. N, the answer in my opinion is no.

We had the chance to create a pan-influenza vaccine such as one based on the M2 protein.

Dr. Osterholmn warned us all and called many years ago for an influenza vaccine Manhattan project but he was not paid attention to by the PTB.

Now we find ourselves in an influenza pandemic with very little hope of an efficacious vaccine available before December, and then for only a small percentage of the population.

The novel strain has obtained 274 and is fit to some degree or another. Based on the cockroach theory, this PM is probably much more widespread than we think.

If it acquires 627 for the mammalian upper respiratory system as well which seems likely during is visit to the South this flu season, then it will reproduce much more virulently in humans and be Tamiflu resistant. Forget Relenza. There is very little around and it can not be scaled up quickly enough to do much good at this late date.

I too agree with Dr. N, that the novel strain has the potential to cause a 1918-style pandemic but disagree in that it is not following the same path.

In the end though, it will make little difference what path it follows if the result is the same.

Grattan Woodson, MD
__________________
The Doctor

[Judith Anne]

bump to myself.

[James Oscar]

January 2009

I spent the winter learning about sialic acid, neuraminidase, Mannose-binding lectin and viral mutation. It was not something that I was particularly good at.

But bless her heart MA allowed me to slowly absorb a bit of the background I would need to understand her thesis.

For example one cold Saturday afternoon she walked me through the following lesson - it was one of a series of lessons on viral glycoproteins.

_________________________________________

Mannose-binding lectin (MBL), a serum lectin that mediates innate immune functions including activation of the lectin complement pathway, binds to carbohydrates expressed on some viral glycoproteins. In this study, the ability of MBL to bind to virus particles pseudotyped with Ebola and Marburg envelope glycoproteins was evaluated.

Virus particles bearing either Ebola (Zaire strain) or Marburg (Musoke strain) envelope glycoproteins bound at significantly higher levels to immobilized MBL compared with virus particles pseudotyped with vesicular stomatitis virus glycoprotein or with no virus glycoprotein. As observed in previous studies, Ebola-pseudotyped virus bound to cells expressing the lectin DC-SIGN (dendritic cell-specific intercellular adhesion molecule 3-grabbing non-integrin).

However, pre-incubation of virus with MBL blocked DC-SIGN-mediated binding to cells, suggesting that the two lectins bind at the same or overlapping sites on the Ebola glycoprotein. Neutralization experiments showed that virus pseudotyped with Ebola or Marburg (Musoke) glycoprotein was neutralized by complement, while the Marburg (Ravn strain) glycoprotein-pseudotyped virus was less sensitive to neutralization. Neutralization was partially mediated through the lectin complement pathway, since a complement source deficient in MBL was significantly less effective at neutralizing viruses pseudotyped with filovirus glycoproteins and addition of purified MBL to the MBL-deficient complement increased neutralization.

These experiments demonstrated that MBL binds to filovirus envelope glycoproteins resulting in important biological effects and suggest that MBL can interact with filoviruses during infection in humans.

_________________________________________________

How lectins are involved with innate host defence was basically the January theme - with many variations.

_________________________________________________

The level of SP-D in bronchoalveolar lavage fluids increased on influenza virus infection. MBL was absent from lavage fluids of normal mice but could be detected in fluids from mice 3 days after infection with the virulent strain A/PR/8/34 (H1N1). The results implicate SP-D and possibly MBL as important components of the innate defense of the respiratory tract against influenza virus and indicate that the degree or pattern of glycosylation of a virus can be an important factor in its virulence.

_________________________________________________

Glycosylation can be an important factor in its virulence. Not a point I would soon forget in the coming months.

I was beginning to understand the strange language she spoke.

I did not know that April would change my chalkboard to a real world lesson and that she had been preparing me for events that (in the winter of 2008/2009) were still yet to come.

[denydenydeny]

The modern equivalent of crazy people walking around with “THE END IS NIGH” sandwich boards.

“Mother Abigail” has been predicting a civilization-ending epidemic for longer than I can remember. It boggles the mind that anyone takes this person seriously.

[James Oscar]

Early Summer 2009

The H1N1 pandemic was building up steam. The outbreak was highly contagious but, on balance, only mildly lethal. However, the fatalities fell mostly within two subsets:

1. Young and healthy
2. Or ill.

As it rolled south, there was a sense of dread. Just a little too close to the 1918 paradigm for most folks.

I had taken an apartment in Carson and felt ready to write online of my long strange trip under the tutelage of Mother Abigail. There really wasn’t that much more to consider - I understood, as best as a layman can, her thesis and vision.

But knowing and believing is a long step from creating. I am a science writer not a futurist.

Facts are my friends and the form and structure of this story mostly eluded me – how to tell this tale seemed far more formidable than the theme. The theme was burned into my heart and mind.

So I went up to the Lake again. MA I explained “How in the world do I write this story?”

It was June and we were setting down by the boat dock in the shade of that huge tree that I had come to love so much.

It had been a cool summer so far and I had a tall gin and tonic to fight off the cold of the Lake. While I sipped, she stared off at the cross of snow still visible on the mountain across the Lake. Then she smiled that smile that those who know her so cherish and said, “Just start telling it and God will see you through”.

Now I have had editors, co-authors and technical advisors – but the thought of Devine Guidance steering my syntax was a bit much for me. But it was all she would say.

As I drove down to Carson, I pondered her response. Could I write in a “stream of consciousness” mode? Trust me; I am structured from my flip flops to my fedora and about as likely to write something that had not been re-written, edited and polished as you are to win at keno.

But it might work.

I could post on a couple of sites and let the story flow from me naturally with my only allegiance being to tell it honestly and to be fair to Mother Abigail.

It might work.

[James Oscar]

JULY 2009

Last weekend Baby Cakes had told me in no uncertain terms that my latest gift was inappropriate. Well so be it…

I had spent a lot of time and effort to find that special something for her. It is what it is. Young women are both a blessing and curse to those of us with a little seasoning.

So, what the hell, I booked. Next thing I knew I was going over Donner Pass heading for the bay. I often use the ocean breeze as some use yoga – it is my ultimate soothing place.

And I needed soothing. I could not pull the trigger on my piece. I had tried to write the first three segments for a month and had wasted more electrons than a toaster oven. It didn’t feel right; it didn’t seem honest or genuine.

So July 3rd found me setting in the Xterra (a fine rental vehicle) overlooking Seal Rock and writing on my laptop – again.

July 4th found me back at the resort on the peninsula – it was a perfect day. The sun was hot and the sky perfect. So I just stopped and relaxed by the pool – the accidental tourist.

There are lines we cross with full knowledge and conviction, and those we just stumble over. This was the former.

Unwilling to wait any longer I decided to just do as MA had suggested – I would start the work with no outline and very little organization and see what happens.

I still don’t know what will happen.

While The Rain Is Easy

Winds
once cast
are hard
To recreate

Neuromancer

[James Oscar]

You have heard my story and how it came to be that I am posting this in the sloppy manor that you have had to suffer through.

When we are finished I will cherry pick the best parts, polish it all up and publish a concise and (hopefully) user-friendly thread.

Thank you for your patience.

Now I will fade away and let MA’s work take center stage.

[Judith Anne]

Place holder bump.

[EternalHope]

Thanks for posting.

[James Oscar]

FUTURES

Q. There are many people worried about the novel H1N1 virus combining with the H5N1 virus. What are your feelings on the issue?

MA. The HPAI A(H5N1) virus is an avian disease - panzootic in poultry and wild birds - and while there have been over 250 human deaths in the last six years from H5N1 infection there is very limited human-to-human transmission of the virus.

But it is worrisome considering it's:
1. High lethality
2. Worldwide host reservoir
3. And propensity for mutation


We know, for instance, that in Indonesia the virus may be adapting to pigs.

The H5N1 virus isolated from pigs is less harmful to mice than the H5N1 isolated from chickens.

This means that the virus growing in pigs might well be adapting to a new host - which, in turn, suggest that it might eventually adapt to humans as well.

Pigs are seen as a possible intermediate host that can help in that adaptation because the epithelial cells in pigs' trachea can be infected by both avian and human flu. Where, in the event of co-infection, viral reassortment might occur.

It seems prudent to be concerned.

However, the normal seasonal flu kills over 30,000 per year which is a quantum leap in risk.

As to the novel H1N1 virus now spreading like wildfire around the globe - the issue is different. The new H1N1 virus is more deadly than common seasonal influenza because of its ability to infect cells deep in the lungs where it can cause scarring and pneumonia.

Also it is more virulent. At least in animal models that is, what we see in the human population is a rather low (0.2%) lethality. Time will tell what the final verdict on virulence is.

We know for certain that it does not have the mitochondrial killing prowess of the 1918 flu virus. However it seems to have spread in six weeks as much as the seasonal flu spreads in six months. It is hot.

(Cont'd)

[James Oscar]

(MA Cont’d)

As to your question of the two mixing and somehow acquiring the lethality of H5N1 and infectiousness of H1N1 - it is of course possible.

Antigenic shift between avian influenza and human influenza is not something unheard of. The “Asian” flu pandemic of 1957 and the “Hong Kong” flu pandemic of 1968 both introduced novel strains.

The H2 that appeared in 1957 and the H3 that appeared in 1968 came from influenza viruses circulating in birds.

So when we consider that the human population has absolutely no immunity against any H5 viruses the red flags go very high indeed.

Will H5N1 reassort with H1N1 or with H3N2, or will it “drift” into another host like pigs and then move to other mammals?

It has failed over the last few years to combine with H3N2 and has yet to find a non-avian host.

When novel H1N1 becomes ubiquitous, as it certainly appears headed, will the increased opportunity for antigenic shift finally create a specific case of reassortment or viral shift that confers a phenotypic change?

I don’t know. No one does, but we can use our experience and make educated calculations as to the possibilities. I would rate the chance of H1 acquiring a polybasic cleavage site at nil, but the odds of H1 picking up lethal genes or polymorphisms at >5%.

There are, in my opinion, far greater risks on the horizon.

[James Oscar]

PERIOD DOUBLING

Q. When you speak of “far greater problems” what are your concerns?

MA. There are several. In recent pandemics, a second wave of influenza activity occurred 3 to 12 months after the first wave. We must anticipate this pandemic to do the same.

In 1957 the second wave began 3 months after the peak of the first wave, while in 1968 the second wave began 12 months after peak of the first wave.

The first wave of the 1918 flu occurred in the spring of that year ending in March. That flu was very severe by usual standards but the second wave beginning 6 months later in September was the most fatal.

During the 1918 pandemic, the deadly second wave was responsible for more than 90% of the deaths for the entire pandemic. The third wave occurred more than a year later, during the following 1919-1920 winter/spring, and was the mildest of all.

So when we think of the fall of 2009 and the children returning to classes we must be cognizant of the huge potential for a second wave of flu infections.

In the previous century, pandemics traveled from continent to continent along sea lanes, with global spread complete within six to eight months. The 1957 pandemic, during an era with much less globalization, spread to the US within 4-5 months of its detection in China, and the 1968 pandemic spread to the US from Hong Kong within 2-3 months. Now we live in the era of “overnight” delivery – and that speed of travel might well come to do us harm.

I am sure you understand that we were able to stop the SARS outbreak by rigidly enforcing “barrier nursing techniques”. However, many of the public health interventions that successfully contained SARS will not be effective against a disease that is far more contagious, has a very short incubation period, and can be transmitted prior to the onset of symptoms.

We have a roughly 20-24% divergence of this novel 2009 H1 from the seasonal influenza H1 virus. This antigenic shift will play itself out with the novel virus replacing the seasonal influenza as the dominate strain. As that happens you should look for new risk groups to emerge and for the tracking of classical period doubling episodes in the infection rates.

In phase transitions there are three universal routes:
• Period doubling
• Intermittency
• Quasiperiodicity

But as an epidemic moves from its initial introduction into a population to mass infection - it is period doubling that best defines that route. At some point along that transition the health authorities will cease to count cases and use macro metrics to measure the disease penetration.

We are very near that phase.

[James Oscar]

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Science Teacher
I remember when you posted something like this on CE 1 to 2 years ago.
It went on and on and you never did get to the end of the story.
Good writers are much more concise. Just my pov.

LOL I could not agree more!!

Please try to remember that this rambling discourse is just a rough draft. I promise to tighten it up and republish in a friendlier piece.

But thank you so much for commenting. Your input on the final product would be greatly appreciated.

James S
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#53 Today, 03:51 PM
James S
Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 37

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldman
James S, I am really enjoying your story. It’s refreshing to hear in these times where people seem to be obsessed with cold, “concise” numbers and demanding predictions about how many people are gonna die. MA is using her experiences to tell us to get ready, in my opinion, and you are trying to learn what you can so you can pass it along, in a more humanized way. I am tired of listening to politicized rhetoric. Thank you.

oldman

You are quite welcome and your accurate description of my efforts is indeed warming.

James S
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#54 Today, 03:54 PM
James S
Registered User Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 37

Re: THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

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Quote:
Originally Posted by aNewDawn
I am fascinated! Such a treasure of wisdom (whether or not you agree with any particular religious perspective).

Please ... continue quickly!!! I await your next chapter.

BTW, speaking as a professional editor ... you are an excellent and gifted writer. A joy to read your work!

Dawn

Sorry for the delay - but it is comments like yours that motivate me to strap on the laptop and gear for maximum smoke.

Thanks

[James Oscar]

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Q: Do you believe that this virus (H1N1) will lead to the type of deaths and disruption that the 1918 flu caused?

MA: In the field of medicine anything is possible, but on balance I would have to say no. In fact, there is some evidence that this influenza A (H1N1) might even be less lethal than our seasonal flu.

That does not mean that there will not be problems. When you have a virus that targets the young, pregnant and those with asthma, respiratory illness and compromised immune systems- then there will be suffering.

But we have fought this battle many times.

However, because of the level of transmission in this pandemic we must be prepared for a huge spike in the fall.

We can’t completely prevent its spread, but we can minimize it through simple measures:

frequent handwashing

covering our mouths with the crook of our elbows when we cough

and staying home from work or school when we’re sick.

For people who are exposed and at high risk from influenza, medications such as oseltamavir (TamiFlu) are still effective against H1N1, although there is always a risk that widespread resistance to these drugs could develop.

A vaccine for H1N1 influenza is under development, and people at high risk of illness from infection (such as the elderly) or at high risk to transmit the infection (such as schoolchildren) should be strongly recommended to receive it.

This vaccine will be in addition to the regular seasonal influenza vaccine.

Again, people over 65 years of age, young children, pregnant women, and people with diseases of the heart, lungs, or immune system should all receive these vaccines assuming they are not allergic to some component of the vaccine.