The question of Newt

QuentinLangley.net ^ | 19 July 2006 | Quentin Langley

[ken5050]

Excellent essay. Thanks for posting..My ticket for 2008: Rudy/Newt.It works..

[MNJohnnie]

Not a chance. Newt is a pure panderer. A Conservative version of Bill Clinton. He merely sticks his finger up in the wind to discover the proper words to mouth.

Curious how, after playing footsie with Hillary earlier this year, Newt is suddenly the Conservatives hero for spewing the nonsense about "It's World War 3".

Also curious how in love a lot of the Conservative are going to be when they read what Newt said about Illegal Immigration. Since this is the same plan as "Open Borders Bush", why is it suddenly different when Newt says it?

http://www.newt.org/backpage.asp?art=2919

****Snip*****

Guided by our core values and by the moral and practical imperatives for immigration reform, the hopeful news is that there is growing political agreement around a comprehensive immigration plan that includes total border control, stepped-up enforcement of employment laws, a temporary worker program, and a more aggressive commitment to educating new citizens about U.S. history and the English language.

[qlangley]

Thanks for the comment.

[TheRobb7]

I'm with you on your analysis of Newt....... He'd be a good guy to have on the team, but not as POTUS.

[qlangley]

I have to disagree. Newt has underlying core values. They may not be same as yours (or indeed mine), but he has them.

One of his problems is that he is rather weak in terms of practical political instincts.

[qlangley]

I think where I stand is that he would (probably) be a great POTUS but a flawed candidate. It really is necessary to balance these things. I am convinced that Barry Goldwater would have been a truly visionary President. It is possible that so would Steve Forbes and Pete DuPont. Choosing a great losing candidate is easy.

[Vision]

I would need to have a Freeper pick my butt up and drive me to the polls to pull a lever for Rudy.

Forget Rudy, he's a great guy- great for NY- but not Presidential material. Let please stop wasting our time on this. If the GOP runs "Rudy" and his anti-gun agenda, I think I'll officially lose my mind.

[Vision]

BTW...

Newt '08

[qlangley]

But if Rudy runs, I don't think it will be on an anti-gun agenda. I think he will seek to downplay guns, abortion and gay issues to get through the primaries, and the way to do this is to run as a very hardline federalist. He will say those are issues for the states and municipalities. The gun policy that was right for NY City is not the same policy that is right for Wyoming. Duh! Next question, please.

[Vision]

But if Rudy runs, I don't think it will be on an anti-gun agenda. I think he will seek to downplay guns, abortion and gay issues to get through the primaries, and the way to do this is to run as a very hardline federalist. He will say those are issues for the states and municipalities. The gun policy that was right for NY City is not the same policy that is right for Wyoming. Duh! Next question, please.


What did Hillary say at the '92 Dem convention? "You have to run as a conservative to win"?

Rudy is dead on arrival, and this opinion is larger than the discussion we are having. BTW, are you in England?

[qlangley]

There are a surprising number of conservatives who adore Rudy. John McCain, who is FAR more conservative on the issues, arouses a lot more hostility.

Yes, I live in England and work in Wales.

[Vision]

Yes, I live in England and work in Wales

That's funny, my brother in law to be is from Wales.

Are you American?

[qlangley]

British citizen married to an American. Long-standing interest in American politics, which is how I became a columnist for an American newspaper.

[Vision]

The reason I ask is your perspective seems to come from an outsider looking in. I know Rudy looks good on paper, but he's not the one.

But we'll all see right?

[qlangley]

We will indeed see. I think I hang around in conservative blogs as much as you do. I agree that there are people who are hostile to him. It just seems to me - and in the polls - nowhere near as many as you might expect, given his policy positions.

I actually think he is MORE popular than a divorced supporter of gay rights, abortion and gun control probably ought to be, on paper.

[lawnguy]

One of his problems is that he is rather weak in terms of practical political instincts.

I agree, this is his biggest weakness IMHO. I think the dying MSM mitigates that to some extent.

What I love about Newt is he is an idea guy. He has given thought to almost every issue, and even though you might not agree with him, you'd better have your ducks in a row if you plan to argue with him.

Even though I know it's not that big of a challenge, he beats on Alan Colmes like a rented mule ;)

[Vision]

But that's my point. You're premise looks good on paper, but doesn't stand up to reality.

BTW, forget the polls.

[qlangley]

Agreed. Which is why his campaign will stir things up, even if he doesn't get very far. Others will have to react to what he says.

[qlangley]

What I am suggesting is, that you have it backwards. That he actually stronger than he ought to be on paper.

I am not suggesting that he is prohibitively strong, or anything like that, but that the level of support he has from conservatives who would never dream of supporting anyone else with his views is surprising.

I have no intention of ignoring the polls. It is one of my areas of study. What I will continue to do is to read them intelligently. A large number of supporters - such as McCain has - is not enough if there is an even larger group determined to see you beaten. That does not appear to be the case with Rudy, at the moment. As the primary season approaches, and people focus on his actual views, and not just on a picture of him standing amid the rubble of the WTC, that may change. But that has not happened yet.

Perhaps you are right that his campaign is doomed to die. But it is not dead.