I believe Putin ran the Belsan thing in Chechneya and basically runs al Queda

Iran's Nuclear Option, AJ Venter | 2-22-05 | strategofr

[darkwing104]

Welcome to the FR!

[GarySpFc]

There is a profound difference between being well read and having experience and good training. In your posts I see none of these qualities; rather I see the inability to discriminate between reality and speculation. However, I shall respond to your post.

Your post is very interesting. I never heard any of that information and you sound credible.
Could you expand a little about how you think it is reasonable that terrorists broke out of the cordon around Belsan? Do you believe the same thing could happen in the US, given that we had a few days or more (as I recall) to set up the perimeter and would bring our best people there?

Your assumption regarding secure perimeters is obvious. I shall not give my opinion as to how some might have escaped in the Beslan operation, but an example will illustrate the ease with how this could have been accomplished. The militants were very familiar with the terrain and features at Beslan, and would have adapted their tactics to fit that scenario.
Journalists have speculated we let OBL go after he was surrounded in Tora Bora. However, his escape would have been relatively easy. Let’s say he was on a small mountain surrounded by opposing forces. These opposing forces would naturally proceed up with the goal of catching him near the top. The theoretical view would be that the perimeter would tighten as the troops proceed up. However, due to variations in the terrain it is impossible for these forces to proceed uniformly and maintain visual contact with members on either side. It is also the strong inclination of individuals to group together for security, and as they proceed up large gaps develop. All OBL had to do was sit patiently on the top watching and waiting as the surrounding forces proceeded up the mountain. Then when one sees a large gap it is relatively easy to sneak a regiment through undetected. That said, OBL was on a group of large mountains, which made his escape considerably easy.

Would you characterize the Belsan operation as a major blunder, analogous to Waco? (which itself could be used as a support for your thesis---things go wrong.)

Firstly, I was at the premier of Waco: The Rules of Engagement, and I would not characterize that as a blunder on the part of the ATF, with the exception of their initial storming of the compound. There were so many false assumptions in the video that the producer was reduced to babbling incoherently after I confronted him during the following question and answer session. That said, I have little doubt the inhabitants set the fire to commit suicide and murder.
Secondly, at Beslan an artillery shell with an electronic triggering device was hung from a basketball goal in the gym by the terrorists. During the siege the shell fell and exploded setting off the final chain of events. Adding to the confusion some of the parents rushed to the school with their rifles, and after misidentifying the Spetsnaz as terrorists shot some of them in the back. Yes, there were blunders, but armchair quarterbacking is easy, and as I stated earlier bad things happen in almost all military operations.

[strategofr]

Thanks.

[strategofr]

Thanks. Your posts make sense. I am mulling over info from you and others on Beslan. But it does sound odd to me that parents were inside the perimeter with rifles, and speaks to a lack of appropriate control, in my opinion.

I find your Bora Bora analysis interesting in regards to Bora Bora, but it should not apply, it seems to me, to the perimeter of a school. Perhaps I am still missing something, though. In addition to the perimeter being much smaller, terrain should be flat around a school. In addition, the time frame indicates the Spetznaz should have been in place at the crisis point, not moving forward as in Bora Bora.

Nonetheless, I understand you are working by general analogy, and, as you say, the terrorists had a long time to plan and think about the school, and every feature therein---the Spetznaz had a short time.

I made a "tactical blunder" myself when I made my post, essentially not understanding the vast difference between Free Republic and Strategy Page (my main previous experience) in terms of size and how that affects the whole posting experience.

However, I am OK with the way things turned out.

My initial post was on a subject I knew little of, which led people to think I don't know much. That is not true, as I have already begun to prove on this thread, but it may be that no one will notice the information I have posted.

While the way I did it was the result of a mistake, it resulted in a steep learning curve and an interesting thread for all.

Thanks much for your thoughtful and informed replies and not assuming I am an idiot. In this case, a single person's (your) response had a positive emotional impact on me very disproportionate to its numerical weight.

[dfwright]

The pancakes thing is just a way of saying "I have no idea what you are talking about, so here is something else that doesn't really make sense."

[strategofr]

Thanks.

[Ksnavely]

Welcome to Freerepublic, I guess some times people have to learn the hard way about the rules here. As long as you make honest attempts to engage in discourse you should do fine here. Don't let the viking kitties get ya down, they are always eager for a zot.

[Ksnavely]

A little side note, I have been active on these forums from the day I signed up, but I still have never posted an article, they have stricter rules on that then simply posting in threads, I would recommend you just find threads that perk your interest and comment on them for a few months. That way you don't look like a flaming troll when you sign up and post kookish conspiracy theories.

[visualops]

LOL!

[Redcloak]

i like cheese

[TChris]

Deliciously satisfying: See the actual video of this paranoid nutcase getting his/her ZOT, with sound:

(Click image below to view)

[GarySpFc]

I find your Bora Bora analysis interesting in regards to Bora Bora, but it should not apply, it seems to me, to the perimeter of a school. Perhaps I am still missing something, though. In addition to the perimeter being much smaller, terrain should be flat around a school. In addition, the time frame indicates the Spetznaz should have been in place at the crisis point, not moving forward as in Bora Bora.

The point I was making is that while it appears the Russians were dunces in letting some of the terrorists evade capture at Beslan, it was highly likely the terrorists had well executed plans in place prior to the assault. Urban warfare is different, but there are always ways for terrorists to escape with careful planning. The fact that you do not see a way is what made it successful.

Nonetheless, I understand you are working by general analogy, and, as you say, the terrorists had a long time to plan and think about the school, and every feature therein---the Spetznaz had a short time.

Exactly correct!

[strategofr]

Thanks. I like the term viking kitties. One thing I've come to realize as a result of this. I'm a talker and a writer when it comes to politics. From now on, I'm skimming over the product of the "graphic arts" crowd.

[strategofr]

Tahnks for the tip. I'll have to think about my attitude toward this particular "rule." The truth is, I don't have a feel for the FR site yet. On Strategy Page, I usually post on someone else's thread, but I do sometimes start my own. I certainly agree that people who are always starting threads are a drag. On the other hand, I believe I have as much right to do it as anyone else does.

Certainly, I have to reflect somewhat on my experiences from this first thread, and I really appreciate your attempt to be helpful in that regard.

[strategofr]

Yeah!

[jb6]

In addition, the Soviets did indeed hijack many aspects of Muslim fundamentalism.

Sorry but that's BS. The West are the ones who actually supported most of the Fundimentalism, who do you think fought the Soviets in Afghanistan and then became the Taliban? A wayward band of boy scouts. The soviets supported communists and socialists, who did use terrorism (the early israelies were also socialists and also used terrorism to get rid of the British) but they were not Jihaders. The PLO and Yasser were never religious, neither were the communists who took power in Iraq. The Baathists, Saddam and his two predicessors were put in place by the CIA to remove the Communists, and were themselves Socialists.

[strategofr]

Ion Pacepa does not "BS"

[strategofr]

OK. I will present my analysis, then address my fear.

Beslan possibilities for escape:

1)existing tunnels. This would include:
a)service tunnels or pipes with a service accessory. Use: escape for all.
b) a pipe big enough for an average man to crawl through. Use: pipe would be blocked at the entry end, provided with entry and exit holes and used for escape of all.
c) a pipe big enough for women or small men to crawl through. Use: Escape for some. Escape for people to cause a diversion.
d) a pipe big enough for a child to crawl through. Use: Escape to cause a diversion.
e) the terrorists could dig a tunnel.
f) the terrorists could penetrate the Spetnaz and thus get some incredibly stupid thing authorized, such as allowing parents armed with rifles inside the perimeter.
g) the terrorists could penetrate the civilian controller on site (assuming there is such); purpose the same as (f.)
h) the terrorists could secrete a person near the site, such as inside a piece of equipment like a transformer, phone connection point, etc. The person would need to be well concealed to avoid the Spetznaz search. At the appropriate time, the person could attack the Spetnaz forces from the rear.
i) the site could be analyzed to determine a surprising line of cover leading to an exit from the cordon. This line of cover could be utilized to escape in a firefight.
j) the site could be analyzed vis a vis (i), but then altered in subtle ways (undetected by Spetznaz) to enhance the cover on the line of exit.
k) the terrorists could surprise the Spetznaz by having unexpected tools, including possibly teargas and smoke.
l) the terrorists could stage a diversion outside the perimeter, timed with a breakout.
m) some terrorists could mount motorcycles for a surprisingly fast breakout.
n) the terrorists could simultaneously employ a number of top level sharpshooters (which would be a surprise.)
o) the terrorists could surprise the Spetznaz by combining some of the above strategies, maybe combined with a conventional "combined arms strategy."

My fear is that I'm so "smart" ;) that I will inadvertently say something to aid the terrorists. But come to think of it, you being a professional, if I started going in that direction, you would send me a private post.

[jb6]

Ion Pacepa does not "BS"

Was a general in the intelligence service of the most oppressive government of the Soviet alliance. He for 30 years helped propt up the worst dictator since Stalin. He saw the writing on the wall and "defected" and did not get put up agains the wall like Cicko and his wife and the other bosses. He has also never stood trial for his crimes against humanity. Nice choice of sources. Next you'll be quoting Golytsin.

[jb6]

How about this: they changed into civilian clothing and while 700+ woman and children were running for their lives and several hundred men were running to save them, this scum picked up some kids and just carried them out.

That is why 3 Chechins were killed by the crowds, one was shot, one hung and one beaten to death. A suicide biatch was shot as she was walking into a field hospital, before she could blow herself up.

Your suggestions on much of this is disgusting beyond all belief. One of my best friends, in Moscow, a former spetznaz officer, with whom I had the pleasure and honor of working in Bosnia, lost one of his best friends who was a commando in the Omega Force (equal to our Delta Force). These men put their bodies between the Islamics and the children.

You comments and paranoia is sick and disgusting and coming from a person who spent 12 years of his life serving this great nation, you do us no favor and are no patriot.