Statistics for DUmmies and dummies.

Vanity | 10/25/2004 | You Dirty Rats

[You Dirty Rats]

A little primer on the boring but critical details of statistics and polls. Every time I hear "Statistical Dead Heat" I want to strangle those ignorant morons in the media.

[writer33]

Yes, brother. Preach it, brother. This deserves and Amen. A Hallelujah. No sarcasm intended.

Great post. Statistics can be manipulated.

BTTT!!!!!!

[Chad Fairbanks]

What about Dumbies? ;0)

[gorush]

The headline is repetatively redundant.

[So Cal Rocket]

Exactly 78.63% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

The only good polls are taken by the absolute best experts in the field, who know better than other how to sample.

The best work for the Candidates!!!

And that is important to remember.

[TheBigB]

"There's, like, too many numbers here!"

[rebel_yell2]

When 9 out of 10 polls show Bush in the lead, you can be pretty confident that Bush is REALLY in the lead. Not certain, but pretty confident.

[YouPosting2Me]

3 out of 4 people make up 75% of the human population...

9 out of 10 dentists think the last guy is just being a jerk...

[Josh in PA]

Actually.. I believe the margin of error applied to the polling results of both candidates?

If Bush has 48, Kerry has 45.. with a 4 point MOE, The possible extreme results are not Kerry +1, Bush +7.

The most extremely possible results within that 95% confidence level is Bush 44, Kerry 49.. Kerry +5.. or Bush 52, Kerry 41, Bush +11.


The 95% Confidence level of a Bush 48-Kerry 45 poll is that it's somewhere between Kerry +5 or Bush +11. 5% of the time it will be outside that margin.


I believe so anyway, unless someone wants to correct me.

[You Dirty Rats]

Actually not. It was intended both as a takeoff on the popular "XXXXXX for Dummies" books and also as a little poke at our friends on the Left that prefer, for reasons best known to themselves, to refer to themselves as subterranean. Maybe it's because their truth can't possibly stand the light of day, much like trolls.

[thackney]

Free Republic Posting Guidelines

Do keep "vanity" posts to a minimum - Free Republic is primarily a place to discuss news, articles, and editorials. Vanity posts, creations of the poster him or herself, should meet a high standard of quality before one is even considered worthy of posting. Often a relevant current thread or general announcement, catch-all thread is a much better choice for a brief question or comment.

Please, no vanities in news / current events.

[So Cal Rocket]

The average voter in the United States has 1 testicle and 1 ovary.

[You Dirty Rats]

Yes, because the average of samples would be a better sample, PROVIDED there ar enot a significant number of them that are biased (statistically and possibly politically).

Mathematically, if the Margin of Error is 4 and Dubya is up 4, then the chance he'll win the popular vote is about 97.5%. If he's up 6, MOE 4, then it's 99.5%. Hehe.

[ken5050]

Thanks for the well written and cogent analysis. Can I pose one question. Most everyone here seems to put a great emphasis on the RealClearPolitics poll averages..even Rush talks about it often..It's become the hot site, it you will...But, isn't it the classic example of GIGO..

[Dataman]

Dear Mr. Rats,

Now all we have to do is gather up the will to prosecute voter fraud, which we should have done last election, so it won't haunt us next election.

[Genoa]

OK, so what you're saying is-- all other things being equal -- Whatever the margin of error is, if the poll shows Bush ahead by x percent, there's as much chance that it's wrong in his favor (x+1) as there is that it's wrong in Kerry's favor (x-1).

[marblehead17]

ping

[Sender]

Thanks for the information, I know very little about statistics. Good stuff to be aware of!

I've also noticed the media bias in the description of the polls; when Kerry is up by 3 points he is "pulling away" from Bush, but when Bush is up by 3 in the same poll it's a statistical dead heat.