Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Thanks Godzilla.
Two hours to 'fill the tank' knocks out any who doesn't have a second car...
Went on FR to prepare for today’s post, only to find out FR for some reason logged me out - and I couldn’t find what I did with may password. Got the problem fixed quickly though - pfew
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
This weekend could get a little bumpy as Hamas progresses to reject the Trump ceasefire plan and pro-Palestinian elements protest/riot in Europe.
Hamas-linked platforms urge mass protests Friday against the US proposal, denouncing it as a “surrender plan.” Hamas has yet to issue an official response — Alaraby TV
Islamists were on the streets of NYC yesterday, calling for a global intifada.
Hamas is close to the end of the 3-4 day period Trump appears to have given them to decide. Protests here could be attempted to sway that deadline.
Otherwise, the potential for serious violence is relatively low for the weekend.
***
Apple removed ICEBlock — the most popular app to track the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency — and similar apps from its App Store, it said on Thursday after it was contacted by US President Donald Trump’s administration.
OBSERVATION - Some are squealing that this is wrong and violates the constitution, etc. Reality is the app was being used for overtly criminal purposes and Apple was reminded of consequences for supporting those actions.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
An exclusive report in the New York Post claims that an NYPD detective on sick leave gained entry into the Ryder Cup by wearing full tactical gear and claiming he was working security for President Trump.
According to the Post’s sources, Det. Melvin Eng, 46, arrived at the tournament and informed officials that he was working security for the federal government. That was enough to get Eng into the tournament. His ruse was only undone after he dropped his gun magazine on the grass, at which point real security officers took notice and subsequently removed him from the tournament.
“You’re out sick, what are you doing at the Ryder Cup?” one veteran cop told the Post. “You can’t do that. And it’s theft of service because you went in for free and then you lied and said you worked for Donald Trump.”
Another police source said, “What if he was looking to hurt someone? He got in there with his gun, past the Secret Service, past the state police.”
The breach in security raises serious questions about the vulnerability of sporting events and how easily someone might be able to penetrate the outer security layers of such an event.
Detective Eng was suspended on Monday morning and is facing administrative charges for theft of services. The NYPD did not respond to a request for comment from the New York Post.
OBSERVATION - This is the second known major security lapse in recent days. The earlier one was a fake cop managed to get into the stadium prior to the Kirk Memorial service. In both of these cases the individuals were identified and stopped.
The biggest concern is that the individual was granted access on just his word alone. Sadly, there are enough leftist nut jobs in law enforcement that an assassination attempt cannot be totally ruled out.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The government shutdown will likely continue into next week, as it is “unlikely” that the Senate will be voting over the weekend, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Thursday.
“They’ll have a fourth chance tomorrow to vote to open up the government, and if that fails, we’ll give them the weekend to think about it, and then we’ll come back and vote on Monday,” Thune told the press, reports Politico.
Thune said he is open to meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., this week, but questioned whether such a discussion would yield progress.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/john-thune-shutdown-senate/2025/10/02/id/1228811/
OBSERVATION - The democrats are desperate to flip the narrative on the shutdown away from funding illegal health care and the rest and try to blame republicans for the action. Currently, even the MSM is giving democrats a hard time over the shut down - ripping the rug right out from under their feet.
***
Just as the democrats are desperately seeking backup for the shut down from the MSM, media is taking hits of its own.
Gallup has released a poll showing trust in the MSM at a all time low of 28%
***
Sombrero memes are coming out from all sectors.
They can’t stop it. They’re powerless. And we don’t care if you’re upset. The memes will continue until the government reopens. It’s asymmetrical warfare—I love it. The Democrats never expected to be hit like this during the Schumer shutdown, and it shows. They are seething over President Trump’s trolling of Democrats over their little show here.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
President Donald Trump has declared drug cartels to be “unlawful combatants” and says the United States is now in a “non-international armed conflict,” according to a newly obtained memorandum.
“Although friendly foreign nations have made significant efforts to combat these organizations, suffering significant losses of life, these groups are now transnational and conduct ongoing attacks throughout the Western Hemisphere as organized cartels,” the memo, which refers to cartel members as “unlawful combatants” and was obtained by the Associated Press on Oct. 2, stated.
“Therefore, the President determined these cartels are non-state armed groups, designated them as terrorist organizations, and determined that their actions constitute an armed attack against the United States.”
https://thelibertydaily.com/trump-notifies-congress-armed-conflict-drug-cartels/
OBSERVATION - Located in this section, though the biggest fish in the water is Venezuela, this can be seen as covering all narco-terrorism in central and south america.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin has escalated to openly threatening Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. He accused Kyiv of allegedly striking power lines to the Zaporizhzhia NPP and warned of a “mirror response,” saying: “Kyiv should remember there are nuclear plants on Ukrainian territory, and Russia can respond accordingly.”
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week. Thunderstorms noted in the south.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports a large missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
303/381 Shahed and other type drones
0/7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
12/21 Iskander-K cruise missiles
5/7 Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles
18 missiles and 78 drones hit 15 locations, and debris from shot down targets fell in 6 locations.
The main focus of the attack was Poltava, Dnipro, Kharkiv region as well as Sumy and Chernihiv region.
Several gas production facilities in Poltava region have halted operations following a Russian drone and missile strike overnight, according to DTEK. The attack targeted DTEK Oil & Gas infrastructure, aiming at Ukraine’s energy sector.
Russian losses per 03/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+970 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+13 artillery
+1 MLRS
Putin threatens to attack Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukrainian FPV drones and ambushes are reportedly destroying Russian reinforcements before they can reach the encirclement near Pokrovsk. Russia has deployed an elite breakthrough brigade, but footage shows convoys being intercepted and assault groups wiped out.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Drone/missile cycle on the up trend again, moderately high numbers.
On the ground, Russian forces reportedly seeing moderately high losses again.
Action north of Pokrovsk continues to warrant observation. Some analysts are reporting that Russian milbloggers and other sources are indicating that there is a ‘drone curtain’ preventing extraction or reinforcement of Russian elements that have been trapped. It would almost seem from reading the reports that the Ukraine is using the trapped Russian elements as ‘bait’ to lure Russian forces into these kill zones and has been relatively successful in the plan.
Still analyzing, but there are growing rumors of a winter Ukraine offensive in the south, looking to push into Crimea again. The last major offensive saw Ukraine forces getting chewed up in a similar attempt. There is some talk that this assault may be linked to a possible attempt to take the Kerch Bridge out once and for all. This would seriously hurt Russian logistical support to defend against such an offensive, and largely isolate the peninsula. Will keep monitoring as winter is still a bit away, and this could be a dose of misinformation / PSYOPS.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Watching to see if protests develop into riots following the election win by pro-EU candidates.
Europe / NATO General –
Mass drone flights have spread to German critical infrastructure escalating NATO’s mounting security crisis. Munich airport was closed due to drone activity today. Military installations, power plants, and government facilities in northern Germany have been intruded upon in recent days as well.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.
Key overnight developments -
- Clock running out for Hamas to accept the Trump plan
- Final calls for civilians to leave Gaza City
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a chilling ultimatum: all Palestinians must evacuate Gaza City immediately or be treated as “terrorists and terror supporters.”
The warning comes as Israel claims control of the Netzarim axis, splitting the enclave in two.
Supporters of Hamas are continuing to urge the terrorists to accept the Trump plan.
One of the big issues with Hamas is the split between the political leadership - living the life of luxury in Qatar and the military wing, who maintain control of the hostages. The military faction seems to be holding the upper hand on the decision and refuses to accept what are essentially terms of surrender.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt sees “no role” for Hamas in Gaza’s future, foreign minister says — AFP
***
Amnesty International on Tuesday called for an immediate ceasefire and release of all civilians held hostage by Gaza factions since the October 7 Massacre, but excluded slain IDF officer Hadar Goldin and other captive IDF soldiers.
The Tuesday Amnesty statement also called for Israel to release 11,040 Palestinians from detention.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-88/
***
The Spanish parliament will discuss imposing a full arms embargo on Israel on October 7, which was announced on Wednesday, according to Kan.
October 7, next Tuesday, is the two-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 massacre.
The embargo would completely prevent the sale of weapons to Israel and the purchase of Israeli weapons by Spain.
***
Egyptian sources speaking to Al-Akhbar, the Lebanese outlet linked to Hezbollah, say senior US officials told Cairo that Trump’s plan is the last chance. If it fails, Israel will be given a green light to mount a sweeping campaign in Gaza to crush Hamxs and allied factions.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Clock is winding down on Hamas. Israel has issued its final warning to those remaining in Gaza City, leave or be considered to be hostile forces. Hamas’ circle of support is dwindling and efforts by European countries is failing to gain traction. Trump has openly stated he’ll back Israel’s actions.
Some speculation out there as far as what impacts this may have with Qatar. The US recently signed a defense pact with the country. I wonder if that pact will be used as leverage to have them force Hamas leadership out of the country?
Continued RUMINT that Israel is planning another strike on Iran. I think that Israel is willing to let sleeping dogs lie at the moment so it can direct maximum attention on Gaza.
Lebanon -
Israeli airstrikes targeted the Ali al-Taher area on the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa at dawn today.
The Israeli army said Friday it carried out airstrikes on a Hezbollah position in Qal’at al-Shaqif, South Lebanon, that it claimed was being used to manage the group’s fire array and defensive operations
OBSERVATION - The strikes will continue until the Lebanese Army steps up and does its job. OTOH, Lebanon may be happy to stand back and allow Israel to do much of the dirty work for them.
Syria -
Israeli airstrikes targeted the outskirts of the Al-Kiswah area in the Damascus countryside. Eight airstrikes have been reported so far.
OBSERVATION - No details from Israel or Syria, but likely as in the past hitting ammo dumps and former Hezbollah sites.
Turkey –
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated Wednesday that Turkey will not allow Syria’s fragmentation if a deal to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian military led by self-appointed President Ahmad al-Sharaa collapses.
“We have engaged all channels of diplomacy, both to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and prevent a terrorist structure from forming across our borders. We continue to use these channels with patience, sincerity, and common sense,” Erdogan explained while giving a speech to mark the Turkish parliament’s re-opening. “If diplomatic initiatives are left unanswered, Turkey policy and position are clear. Turkey will not allow a deja vu to take place in Syria,” he added.
The US-backed SDF was established under US guidance in 2015. It is an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Ankara considers a terrorist organization.
OBSERVATION - US support to the SDF is one of the brakes to further Turkish actions against them. The SDF recognizes that Turkey and the new Syrian govt are in the same bed and that they need to maintain a strong deterrence to prevent ethnic cleansing like has occurred with the Alawite clan in the west and the Druze in the south.
Turkey maintains control of a swath of Syria’s northern regions.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
U.S. military planners believe that forces being assembled in Puerto Rico and the Southern Caribbean are now sufficient enough to launch “territorial-seizure operations” against Venezuela, capturing and holding key strategic facilities such as ports and airfields, according to a report from the Washington Examiner.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1973955228824162716?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Hmmm. The military assets deployed to the region have been noted to far exceed that necessary for simple interdiction of vessels on the ocean. This doesn’t seem to be a bluff on Trump’s part. Seizure of ports and airfields would provide bases for further attacks on narco-terror bases and facilities. In doing so would essentially be declaring war on Venezuela.
Also involved it getting congressional approval of such an action. The declaration of a ‘war’ with narco - terrorists as a basis for any assault on Venezuelan territory to me is a very weak argument.
Misc of Note –
Season is rapidly turning here in the Redoubt, with the first significant winter storm warnings of the season. Locally, snow down to 5000 feet, meaning I expect to wake up to some white stuff this weekend.
Changing seasons also drives changing weather patterns across the rest of the US. In addition to snow, increased heavy rains and even tornados are common.
Its a good thing right now to check out what your basic carry is in your vehicle(s). If you are caught in winter weather, here’s some tips.
- Don’t leave your vehicle, its critical shelter and what rescuers are seeking
- Don’t run the engine, risk of carbon monoxide poisoning
- Have blankets and some food / water available
- Emergency candles can provide some degree of warming.
- Comms backup. If you are a Ham, plan for 2m backup either with a hand held or vehicle radio onto repeaters you can hit.
- Newer Iphones have an emergency satellite coms feature if out of cell coverage that can be used for texting for help.
Plan now, and continually refresh your travel as the winter progresses to meet changing conditions.
Thanks Godzilla.
We're the best at trolling in the world. Trump rules.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Social credit scores are on their way in a tokenized economy. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), nicknamed the “central bank of central banks,” published a short paper in August that would provide scores to tokens and digital wallets, framed as a means combating anti-money laundering (AML), based on wallet holders’ transactions.
As we have covered many times here on The WinePress, tokenization is the next evolution of finance and the global economy; replacing money and ownership with digital tokens that are tracked and traced 24/7/365, that maintain a record of transactions and ownership.
A “token,” as defined by the BIS, “are entries in a database that are recorded digitally and that can contain information and functionality within the token themselves. Digital tokens can represent financial or real assets.” A token collects information about that underlying digital money or asset: ownership, dates of purchase/sale, transaction dates, and so forth, the BIS explains.
Agustín Carstens, the now former General Manager of the BIS (he stepped down at the end of June of this year), gave ominous remarks in 2020 in which revealed that a CBDC would strip citizens of their financial autonomy and anonymity.
“We don’t know who’s using a $100 bill today and we don’t know who’s using a 1,000 peso bill today. The key difference with the CBDC is the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and also we will have the technology to enforce that.”
https://thewinepress.substack.com/p/social-credit-score-bank-for-international
OBSERVATION - Ever moving in the background, multiple efforts to digitize and control global economics and individual behavior are moving forward one step at a time via incrementalism. The don’t dare come forward with the big take over, but put in place policies and procedures for that moment some major crisis hits (and it will hit) to drive the implementation of these orwellian practices.
The big gig will be orchestrating a global crisis of some sort, such as an economic crash, war, plandemic, etc that can drive humanity to this ‘solution’ to the problem. Wuhan was the test run for such a crisis and was successful in moving the agenda forward, principally in the realm of digital ID and ‘vaccination records’ These systems conditioned the sheeple to accept digital controls on their lives. It is only one step further to incorporate digital finances into the mix. Social control is the name of the game and if people cannot buy food, they tend to comply relatively soon.
***
Yuval Noah Harari: “Most people will be willing to give up their privacy in exchange for much better healthcare, based on 24-hour monitoring of what’s happening inside their bodies.”
“People will walk around with biometric sensors—on, or even inside their bodies—and will allow Google, or Facebook, or the Chinese government... to constantly monitor what’s happening inside [their] body.”
https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1974369844070842436
OBSERVATION - Harari - the personification of evil in the WEF.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
Protests against ICE will be the key actions this weekend. Portland, Chicago and probably NYC being hot spots. Definite threat of violence in those locations.
With focus once again on Hamas, there is a probability that pro-Hamas / anti-israel protests could break out, some with violent or vandalism.
Elsewhere are reported more peaceful actions, mostly sign waving and some vocal actives.
***
The Portland Police are now colluding with Antifa to prosecute federal officers protecting the ICE facility. Each time federal officers engage with Antifa Portland Police liaisons collect statements and videos from Antifa to facilitate state criminal charges against DHS agents. The officers do NOT intervene when they witness Antifa committing assaults, vandalism, or trespass - famously refusing to arrest journalist
@KatieDaviscourt’s attacker and more recently arresting X independent journalist Nick Sortor for disorderly conduct (When Antifa set fire to the American flag Nick put it out - presumably that is the disorderly conduct).
https://x.com/amuse/status/1974105768753303672
OBSERVATION - DOJ is moving quickly into oversight mode on the behavior of the Portland police department. This is pressing into dangerous ground where the civilian and police leadership is actively interfering with federal law enforcement. I wonder just how much more officers on the line will put up with this overt support for thugs like Antifa? Or have they all bee corrupted to the point of willingly going along with this.
With Oregon NG soon to be on site, it will be important to see if PPD conducts the same ‘evidence’ collection on them as well.
In a CW2 scenario, competing legal jurisdictions will be in action and under the Red v Blue scenario, the leftist leaders in blue areas will utilize the police as their personal military force against conservatives.
***
An unusually long and large flight restriction has been placed on the Chicago area for several days, a move officials say was sparked by a “credible threat” of attacks on law enforcement.
The Federal Aviation Administration confirmed a temporary flight restriction was put in place “at the request of the Department of Homeland Security.”
The restrictions include aircraft from the surface to 400 feet, citing “security reasons.” The restricted zone extends in a 15-nautical-mile radius stretching from downtown Chicago to north of Evanston, west of Elmhurst and south of Dolton.
“Pilots who do not adhere to the following [procedures] may be intercepted, detained and interviewed by law enforcement.
Customs and Border Protection confirmed the restrictions were requested “due to a credible threat of small, unmanned aircraft systems being used against law enforcement during Midway Blitz.”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4344143/posts
OBSERVATIONS - Drone recon has matured significantly in the past few years. It would provide the user (friend or foe) with real time observations of ground actions. Now with the proliferation of FPV combat drone development in the Ukraine war, the potential lethality of similar drones in the hands of violent leftists becomes an even greater concern.
That said, criminals will do criminal things and probably Antifa et al will ignore the FAA restrictions. It then becomes a challenge to locate the operator and make an arrest.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Recruiting for the Navy is at its highest level since the early 2000s, just two years after the service missed its active-duty goal.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The govt shutdown will go into next week as the next Senate vote is not scheduled until Monday. The administration is still maintaining the edge on pinning the shutdown on dems. Now the threatened ‘nuclear’ response by the administration is about to fall -
“White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Oct. 2 that the number of federal employees who are being laid off amid the government shutdown will be in the thousands.”
““That’s something that the Office of Management and Budget and the entire team at the White House here, again, is unfortunately having to work on today,” Leavitt told reporters.”
“If there were no government shutdown, she added, “these discussions and these conversations, these meetings, would not be happening.””
OBSERVATION - These are not furloughs, but actual pink slips - going to thousands. I expect the first to start hitting before the end of the weekend and definitely next week.
***
In a win for the Second Amendment and law-abiding gun owners across America, a federal court has ruled that bans on carrying firearms in U.S. Post Offices are unconstitutional. The ruling also applies to carrying firearms on property surrounding post offices.
OBSERVATION - Excellent news. For those who can remember, one instance of an individual who was tried for carrying on Postal Service “property” while in a very public parking lot only because that parking lot was over an underground USPS garage. Other instances saw those restriction being placed on individuals even driving thru mail drop off boxes.
Similar insanity has been observed on the school 1000 feet radius rule, which impacted many who were just transiting thru the zone as well as those who lived within the zone. Took a lot of litigation to get that cleared up as well.
***
The FBI has severed all links to the ADF and the SPLC over their grossly misrepresentative positions on ‘hate’ groups. They have long ceased to be anything but political hack jobs. SPLC for instance ran a bunch of stories about TPUSA and Kirk being hate mongers, just days before his assassination. Clearly, incitement.
Illegal Immigration –
The Supreme Court on Friday allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to strip legal protections from more than 300,000 Venezuelan migrants.
The justices issued an emergency order, which will last as long as the court case continues, putting on hold a lower-court ruling by U.S. District Judge Edward Chen in San Francisco that found the administration had wrongly ended temporary protected status for the Venezuelans. The three liberal justices dissented.
Trump’s Republican administration has moved to withdraw various protections that have allowed immigrants to remain in the United States and work legally, including ending TPS for a total of 600,000 Venezuelans and 500,000 Haitians who were granted protection under President Joe Biden, a Democrat. TPS is granted in 18-month increments.
In May, the Supreme Court reversed a preliminary order from Chen that affected another 350,000 Venezuelans whose protections expired in April. The high court provided no explanation at the time, which is common in emergency appeals.
OBSERVATION - Basically, the USSC is noting that the law only permits 18 month TPS that can be granted in sequence. The left wants automatic extensions. Loss of TPS means they have to either move on or be in the process to legalize their presence here.
North/South Korea –
North Korean soldiers have not entered Ukraine yet, but, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources, are planning to cross the border soon. Meanwhile, North Korea is sending 30,000 more troops, some of them support forces but most of them trained for combat. These reinforcements are supposed to arrive in three or four months. Up until now, the largest North Korean contribution has been munitions. This includes millions of artillery shells, hundreds of ballistic missiles and other items the Russian military desperately needs. Most of the first 12,000 North Korean troops have been killed or wounded. None of the 4,000 dead are returning to service and an unknown number of the wounded were permanently disabled by their wounds.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/202510046313.aspx#gsc.tab=0
OBSERVATION - At the current casualty rate, those Korean troops will only fill a months worth of combat. Logistics is a critical weakness of Russia and they may be put to better use there.
Japan –
Ultraconservative politician Sanae Takaichi has won the leadership election for Japan’s largest party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in an upset.
She has been described as “far right” by other members of her party and is a member of Nippon Kaigi, an ultranationalist, militarist far-right organization and lobbying group.
OBSERVATION - This is a hard swing back to the right and she’ll probably end up as the next prime minister. Harder stances against Chinese and Russian provocation would be expected.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping in the 40-50 degree range with scattered showers mid week. Thunderstorms noted in the south.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a large air assault on Ukraine with 109 drones (Shahed, Herber, and others) and 3 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. Ukraine’s air defense intercepted or suppressed 73 drones. However, 3 missiles and 36 drones hit 21 locations. Debris also fell in 4 areas.
Russian drone strikes targeted Chernihiv, setting off explosions that sparked large fires and blanketed the city in smoke. Multiple key power supply sites were hit, leaving around 50,000 people without electricity. Emergency crews are working to restore power.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones successfully hit Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery, setting the facility ablaze. The refinery, located just outside St. Petersburg and one of the largest in Russia, has been hit twice in a little over a month.
Explosions were reported at the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad region. Local authorities have confirmed a strike on the facility, with fires breaking out in the industrial zone. Emergency crews are currently working to contain the blaze.
Russian losses per 04/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+950 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+15 artillery
+1 MLRS
Analysis and Future Operations —
Moderate Russian drone attack likely building up to another, much larger one soon. The drone war is probably the most significant aspect of the conflict now, as each side hammers key economic targets as well as identified military sites. Now it is a sprint to see which side can out produce the other in drones.
Some analysts are suggesting that the cyclic nature of Russian drone / missile attacks is based in part on shortages of ballistic missiles. Russia has to save up for an attack, and then floods the Ukraine ADA zone with drones to help these missiles penetrate to their targets. So far this has been relatively effective, judging by the interception stats.
Ground action continues to be moderately heavy, judging from the reported Russian losses. Clock keeps ticking down to mud season and a forced slowdown in action until the ground freezes.
Europe / NATO General –
For the second night in a row, Munich International Airport in Southern Germany has been closed for arriving and departing flights due to the sighting of unidentified drones in the airspace near Munich.
OBSERVATION - Bets are on that this is a Russian operated or backed series of drone intrusions. Ukraine’s surprise drone attack deep in Russia earlier this year exposed the ease with which these critters can transit thru the region without raising and eyebrow. That and the general growth of the hobby.
The goal of any Russia effort would be to primarily throw NATO off balance in trying to respond to this asymmetrical action. Get them chasing their tail and off focus. So far, global drone incursions, including those earlier in the US, have resulted in few if any operator(s) being either identified or arrested (to the best of my memory)
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas reportedly ‘accepts’ the Trump demand
- IDF pauses Gaza operations and prepares for hostage recovery.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas statement in response to Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza:
“We appreciate President Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the war. We agree to release all the hostages in order to achieve a permanent ceasefire; We are ready to enter immediately into negotiations to discuss the details; We agree to hand over administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independent/unaffiliated figures”
Hamas says it agreed to release all hostages according to the proposal but rejected other clauses, particularly those requiring it to disarm, and requested negotiations over details.
Meanwhile, Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk is quoted in Arabic media as saying that “releasing all the living hostages and bodies within 72 hours is theoretical and unrealistic under the current circumstances.”
There is further confusion on who is in charge of Hamas on this. Reports that the Hamas leader in Gaza says no to deal and fights even while Hamas leaders in Qatar claim to be open to further talking. This is a serious problem. Who’s in charge if anyone?
In response to the Hamas response, Trump calls on Israel to “immediately stop the bombing of Gaza” in order to get the hostages out. “We are already in discussions on details to be worked out,” Trump writes
Israeli army has been instructed to reduce activity in Gaza to a ‘minimum’ and only carry out ‘defensive actions’, according to Israeli army Military Radio Operation to capture Gaza city has been stopped
***
Hamas elements and tribal forces have been increasing their fighting lately as old scores are being collected on and turf disputes grow.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Fast moving. However, if one takes the time to read the Hamas statement, one will find it a masterpiece of weasel wording and loophole construction. Its Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football all over again. The approved moslem model of lying and misdirection continues here. Even on the hostage release, Hamas wants to ‘negotiate’ more.
The friction between the Hamas leadership on the front lines and those in luxury villa’s in Qatar may well be another factor in this ‘acceptance’ and growing likelihood that the jihadi forces in Gaza will not play along.
IMHO, Trump and Netanyahu may be letting Hamas hang themselves by their own rope. They’ll find some excuse for not meeting the 72 hour deadline and try to force ‘negotiations’ for the release of those they failed to release per their ‘agreement’.
IMHO, I certainly hope that no further negotiations take place after 72 hours. It will become very clear it is another delay tactic.
On the fighting side, Hamas will poke the bear trying to incite an Israeli response that they can use against them. Israel for its part likely will remain weapons free and surveilling the heck out of the area. Missile strikes from drones likely versus big bombs from F15s.
72 hours can help Hamas, but can also help Israel. It depends on who’s OODA loop is the tighter. Hamas response to the hostage release will identify key leadership locations and troop concentrations. My bets are on Israel.
I am a pessimist in regards to Hamas’ intentions. We’ve seen them play the game time and again so far. I expect nothing less this time around. Gaza City is soon to fall and with it their claim to power.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Earlier this morning, on President Trump’s orders, I directed a lethal, kinetic strike on a narco-trafficking vessel affiliated with Designated Terrorist Organizations in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility. Four male narco-terrorists aboard the vessel were killed in the strike, and no U.S. forces were harmed in the operation. The strike was conducted in international waters just off the coast of Venezuela while the vessel was transporting substantial amounts of narcotics - headed to America to poison our people.
https://x.com/secwar/status/1974150886084485503?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - This is the fourth vessel taken out.
Re:
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In a win for the Second Amendment and law-abiding gun owners across America, a federal court has ruled that bans on carrying firearms in U.S. Post Offices are unconstitutional. The ruling also applies to carrying firearms on property surrounding post offices.
I read that this ruling only applies to members of two gun organizations, FPC and SAF.
I expect that membership in those two organizations will rise sharply.
“People will walk around with biometric sensors—on, or even inside their bodies—and will allow Google, or Facebook, or the Chinese government... to constantly monitor what’s happening inside [their] body.”
Most people are idiots then. And there are many based on the number of people I see walking around with those *watches* on their wrists.
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