Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
It's time to dump the Hamas/Palestinian crap on the Arab world to handle. It's hard for decent Western societies to deal with that level of evil.
Had to take an extra day. After a long days driving, got home to a search and rescue callout for a couple of out of state hikers lost in the hills. Made for a very short night. However, it was quickened by the fact that we purchased a portable Starlink system and were able to communicate to the lost hikers (they still had cell coverage, we didn’t) via that system, speeding up location and getting them out. Powerful system.
Sorry if today’s post is a little jagged as a result.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
From FO -
The latest push from Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing group, is training a million organizers who will be holding in-person meetings to recruit and organize additional activists over the next two weeks.
- Each organizer is called to host two meetings: the first is designed to orient new recruits to resistance strategies like strategic noncooperation, and the second is to plan a local resistance event or campaign.
- The ultimate goal is to use mass mobilization and strategic noncooperation to weaken the pillars of support for the Trump administration – a so-called authoritarian regime – through undermining its legitimacy and making authoritarian action impossible or, at the very least, difficult.
- Strategic noncooperation includes actions like internal resistance by federal workers, refusing compliance with Trump administration policies, information leaks, workers strikes and slowdowns, and other forms of nonviolent civil disobedience, in addition to mass protests.
MY OBSERVATIONS - This level of organizing to me indicates that the left (and Indivisible is very much an astroturf organization in many ways) is still having trouble establishing a foundation of opposition. Its protests have see mostly a yawn by the majority of Americans as being out of touch with the key issues Trump has successfully moved forward on.
However, they are not the organization is reformation mode. The violent left is also working to regain its base and retool its actions to try to gain momentum once again. For Antifa et al, evidence of this weakness is that they are essentially been limited to operations / violence in some its stronghold cities along the west coast.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
America’s spring homebuying season just hit its weakest point in over a decade
— marking the slowest market since 2012 and sparking fears that a full-blown price collapse could be next.
Spring is traditionally the hottest time for pending home sales but that’s no longer the case in the in the now struggling US housing market.
In 2025, April through June brought the lowest sales in 13 years, according to Redfin.
OBSERVATION - I keep saying it that the housing market is a key indicator of economic health. A collapse of the system will cause an immense chain of bankruptcies - and with fed rates being maintained at current highs, money will still be relatively unattainable for a home but for a few.
Lower rates + lowered prices = kickstart to economic fundamentals.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Trump reports two nuclear boomers redeployed closer to Russia.
POLITICAL FRONT –
US federal officials say they have opened an investigation into former special counsel Jack Smith, who led two federal criminal cases against President Donald Trump before resigning from his post earlier this year.
The OSC does not have authority to lay criminal charges against Mr Smith, but it can initiate disciplinary action or refer its findings to the Department of Justice.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1levr1l07go
OBSERVATION - Pay back time? We’ll see.
***
The Senate left Washington Saturday night for its month-long August recess without a deal to advance dozens of President Donald Trump’s nominees, calling it quits after days of contentious bipartisan negotiations and Trump posting on social media that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer can “GO TO HELL!”
Without a deal in hand, Republicans say they may try to change Senate rules when they return in September to speed up the pace of confirmations. Trump has been pressuring senators to move quickly as Democrats blocked more nominees than usual this year, denying any fast unanimous consent votes and forcing roll calls on each one, a lengthy process that can take several days per nominee.
“I think they’re desperately in need of change,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said of Senate rules Saturday after negotiations with Schumer and Trump broke down. “I think that the last six months have demonstrated that this process, nominations is broken. And so I expect there will be some good robust conversations about that.”
OBSERVATION - I notified my senator (a republican) over my dissatisfaction on their handling of Trump’s nominees. Time for them to start acting like the party in control and not a bunch of democrat-lite wimps. Additional slap is Thune taking actions to prevent recess appointments. With republicans like him, who needs democrats.
TRUMP Watch –
Watching Trump’s responses to Medvedev, who’s been talking nukes since the start of the Ukraine war. Is Trump calling his bluff?
Illegal Immigration –
9th circuit maintains the prohibitions essentially of illegal sweeps of businesses commonly known to employ illegals -circumventing the clearly established precedent that the DHS can arrest illegals buy saying it is based on racism, etc.
Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level ADVISORY as of Aug 3, 2025
Downgraded to ADVISORY due to stabilizing peace, but still locally volatile.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
On Tuesday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued the Kremlin’s response to President Trump’s Monday announcement from Scotland that he’s reducing a deadline for Russia to agree a peace settlement from 50 days to 10 or 12 days, citing ‘disappointment’ in Putin not ending or at least winding down the war.
Medvedev warned: “Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran” and thus that “Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump’s) own country.”
That followed comments by Medvedev that Trump ‘steamrolled, humiliated’ Europe with his trade deal.
Then Thursday, Trump told Medvedev to “watch his words”
On Friday morning, President Trump took to his Truth Social account and escalated from words to actions moving two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” based on “highly provocative” statements from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
***
“Well, a former president of Russia who’s now in charge of one of the most important councils, Medvedev, said some things that were very bad, talking about nuclear.”
Trump continued, “And when you mention the word ‘nuclear,’ you know, my eyes light up and I say, ‘We better be careful,’ because it’s the ultimate threat.”
Medvedev had on Thursday posted on Telegram that Trump should recall “his favorite films about the ‘walking dead’” and while referencing Soviet Union nuclear strike doctrine.
Trump explained in the new interview, “He shouldn’t have said it. He’s got a fresh mouth. He’s said things in the past, too. And so we always want to be ready. And so I have sent to the region two nuclear submarines. I just want to make sure that his words are only words and nothing more than that.”
https://americafirstreport.com/trump-issues-further-explanation-on-moving-2-nuclear-submarines-closer-to-russia/
OBSERVATION - With the 10 day count down now down to a few days, Russia is trying to play its nuclear card, and Trump sees it and raises it by two boomers. Putin may think Trump won’t respond in kind should Russia finally use a nuke. They are dangerously wrong. This is the same Trump that dropped a MOAB on the Taliban as well as sortied 6 B2s to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. Additionally, the US still has its land based capabilities (NOTE - in my road trip Saturday, I passed by numerous Minuteman silos here in the Redoubt).
At this stage I don’t see things crossing the nuclear threshold either in Ukraine, the rest of Europe or US. The burden is on Russia and should they choose to open that box, they will have chosen poorly.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Over night, Russia launched a combined missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
60/76 Shahed and other type drones
0/5 S-300/400 ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-22 cruise missile
1/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
Hits were recorded in 8 locations.
Russian losses per 03/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+920 men
+2 AFVs
+43 artillery
Overnight, Ukraine continued its new summer drone strike campaign, successfully hitting a Russian fuel depot at Sochi International airport.
Russia’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk oil refineries, were also recently hit, triggering large fires. It also said it struck the Annanefteprodukt oil storage site in the Voronezh region, which was likely a long-range drone attack, but few details were disclosed.
Ukraine drones also attacked an oil depot in Adler, causing massive fire. Fire reported in the area of oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhniy Novgorod
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) - New Main Effort
Rumors that the situation in this area over the past few days has deteriorated against Ukraine. Reports also indicate much larger and more intense Russian attacks in the sector. Some reports suggest Russia may have finally gained a toe hold in the southern part Pokraysk.
Summary —
If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, this would represent the largest gain that Russia has obtained on over a year. Earlier this year, Russia declared this to be the axis for their main effort. Higher level commanders have successfully actually employed strategic levels of maneuver to encircle the town on the north and south, creating a pocket and threatening supply lines. Ukraine as to decide to either reinforce and counter attack to relieve pressure, of accelerate the construction of a fall back line of defense.
Given the fierceness of the attack in the Pokrovsk sector, the Russia causalities seem alittle on the low side.
Ukraine has resumed a successful strategic drone operation targeting Russian petroleum facilities. Last year, Ukraine’s attacks put a serious pinch on the fuel Russia needed to move their forces in the region - as well as placing economic pressure on the nation and locals.
Low numbers of Russian drones and missiles likely indicates that another major attack is only a few days away.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas hails European pressure on Gaza food and Palestinian statehood.
- Hamas releases video of hostages showing their abuse and starvation.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu spoke with the families of hostages Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David after distressing videos of them, condemns Hamas’s cruelty and reaffirms Israel’s ongoing efforts to secure the hostages’ release.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Reports: Hamas has cut off contact with mediators, effectively ending ceasefire negotiations and likely guaranteeing the expansion of Israeli military operations in Gaza
***
Rumors that all remaining hostages have been placed in underground facilities in order to thwart potential Israeli rescue operations.
***
Trump in his response to the released hostage videos appears to have hardened himself against Hamas calling for their total elimination.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel is not starving Gaza, if anyone is guilty of that it is Hamas. Yet Hamas has convinced its ever loving European supporters that such a plague is real and caused by Israel. This has resulted in a nearly unprecedented move to recognize a ‘palistianian state’ and punish Israel for its Oct 7 response - all to the joy and glee of Hamas.
Now emboldened, Hamas released a demented video showing hostage Evyatar David, a 24-year-old Israeli civilian kidnapped from the Nova Music Festival.
- Starved.
- Tortured.
- Bones visible beneath his skin.
- Forced to dig his own grave.
- Kept 666 days in darkness.
All with accompanying silence from France, Britain, Canada and other Euro Hamas loving countries.
Hamas refusal to return to the negotiating table and their brazen release of hostage videos showing gross mistreatment, Israeli leadership is becoming steeled to go after them at all costs. Included in this is the increasing potential of annexation of Gaza.
For Syria and Lebanon, Israel to continue strikes on key weapons sites as Israel identifies and sees fit.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Supporters of the Shah are increasing organization and interconnection as they prepare for a potential challenge to the theocratic rule of the mullahs. A big part of this movement is the abysmal state of the infrastructure and the stress that places on the general civilian class — outside of the supporters of the mullahs. Tehran is reportedly down to its last 20% of water, gasoline and other energy prices continue to rise and the regimen is spending its money on its military and nuclear program. All conditions for increasing civil unrest.
Lebanon -
Lebanese Justice Minister: We will not allow Hezbollah to drag Lebanon with it if it chooses to commit suicide and refuses to hand over its weapon
***
Over the past few days, Israel’s Minister of Defense Israel Katz confirms that the Israeli Air Force carried out a wave of strikes within the last few hours against Hezbollah “strategic weapons”manufacturing and storage infrastructure in the Beqaa Valley of Northeastern and Southern Lebanon. The primary target of the strikes appears to have been Hezbollah’s largest weapons production plant for precision-missile manufacturing, which had been struck a number of times previously, located near the village of Brital. Katz further added, “Any attempt by the terrorist organization to restore, reestablish itself, or pose a threat, will be met with uncompromising force.”
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
Druze factions captured the strategic Tell Hadid (West Suwayda). They also took advantage of absence of Defense ministry troops and withdrawal of tribal fighters (few remain). Few days ago, a video emerged showing them monitoring the Security forces deployed on the hill. Now that they control it, they have a visual dominance over the entire Western Suwayda countryside
***
The Israeli army revealed that it carried out a raid on targets in southern Syria and seized weapons on Saturday evening.
Thanks Godzilla.
As always, thank you!
Some delay this morning as my attention has been divided by a six pound bundle of puppy weiner dog
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
(FO) In a post on social media, Indivisible co-executive director Ezra Levin called for “widespread blowback” against Colombia and Brown Universities for capitulating to the Trump administration.
OBSERVATION - University activists formed a foundation for protestors/rioters last year. That changed dramatically this year when Trump put the screws to the schools to clean up their act or face funding cut off. I don’t see Indivisible generating any significant ‘blowback’.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
(FO) In a new report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said there were about 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 July, the lowest mid-year cattle count since 1973. According to the USDA report, the number of cattle placed in feed lots before going to slaughter was at the lowest level since 2017. Ag economists said the new USDA data showed very little indication that U.S. beef producers are rebuilding herds, and beef prices are likely to remain elevated for years.
OBSERVATION - The cattle industry is still recovering from the shocks of wuhan plus a drought period that forced cattlemen to downsize herds. There is still considerable concern over growing the herds given the continued high costs and risks.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Army deployed its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon system overseas for the first time during Talisman Sabre 25, showcasing the advanced missile in Australia’s Northern Territory.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Texas Governor Abbott has issued a warning that if House Democrats do not return by 3 PM tomorrow, he will move to declare their seats vacant and replace them
OBSERVATION - Fleeing an approved redistricting plan that has the potential to increase republicans in the House by 5. Arguments coming out that Abbott doesn’t have the authority to do this. Remains to be seen.
China -
China rejects US request to halt oil imports from Iran and Russia
OBSERVATION - China’s reliance on Russia oil is key and the threat of slapped on sanctions and tariffs could cause China to revisit as they hit the economy.
***
Chinese Defense Minister issues direct warning to U.S. allies
“If China’s sovereignty over Taiwan is challenged, American military bases in Japan and South Korea will be considered legitimate targets.
Beijing will not tolerate foreign interference.”
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
The devastating 8.8 mag earthquake that struck the area is also where Russia’s most important strategic submarine command centers are located raising suspicion of severe damage to nuclear facilities.
Economic Impact –
India’s largest oil refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, has urgently purchased 7 million barrels of US crude for September delivery, according to Reuters. The move comes as India reduces Russian oil imports amid sanctions and geopolitical pressure.
Indian govt officials had also said they will not stop purchasing Russian oil. Companies see it differently and apparently want to avoid sanctions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain early week, with temps going back to the 50-80 range
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched 162 Shahed-type drones, and aeroballistic Kh-47 M2 missile, - Ukrainian air forces
Lviv took the brunt of the attack overnight.
Russian losses per 04/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1010 men
+1 tank
+8 AFVs
+28 artillery
Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck the Archeda railway station in Volgograd region, damaging a building with relay cabinets and causing partial power loss along the railway line. Train delays have been reported.
Summary —
Russia continues to press the Pokrovsk sector with moderately heavy fighting along the front. Ukraine continues its targeted attacks on Russian oil and logistical nodes.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Recent pressures for ‘humanitarian’ aid has caused Gideon’s Chariot operations to stall.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Palestinian President: We renew our demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
After nearly four months of limited ground operations in Gaza, Israel’s offensive known as Gideon’s Chariots appears to be winding down without meeting its primary goals of securing the release of hostages while decisively weakening Hamas.
The recent weeks have seen a notable decline in combat intensity and casualties, aligning with unilateral ceasefires Israel initiated under international diplomatic pressure. Political leaders have sought a visible achievement from the prolonged campaign, but internally, military and political officials remain divided over the operation’s outcomes and next steps.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjvoh36vlx#autoplay
***
Israel PM Netanyahu is pushing to widening the fighting in Gaza to areas where hostages are being held, despite the threats to their life, according to Israeli official, who says that Hamas is not interested in a deal
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he spoke with the International Red Cross’s regional head, Julien Lerisson, and requested his involvement in providing food and medical care to hostages held in Gaza.
NOTE - The Red Cross has been totally AWOL in seeing and demanding protection of the hostages.
***
A source familiar with the matter told i24NEWS that Hamas is conditioning its return to negotiations on the entry of at least 250 aid trucks per day into Gaza
NOTE - Most of which will be hijacked by Hamas for their own use and resale.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Defense Minister Israel Katz on Sunday pledged to reinforce Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and its holy sites, as Jews around the world marked Tisha B’Av, the annual fast commemorating the destruction of the First and Second Temples. “Two thousand years after the destruction of the Second Temple, the Western Wall and the Temple Mount are again under the sovereignty of the State of Israel,” Katz wrote on X following a visit to the Western Wall in the capital’s Old City. “Israel haters around the world continue to make decisions against us and protest, and we will strengthen our hold and sovereignty over Jerusalem,” he added.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The IDF shot down a Houthi drone from Yemen over Bnei Netzarim in the Negev desert, with no reported injuries or damage.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Irish President Michael D. Higgins is calling for military action in Gaza.
He’s urging the UN to invoke Chapter 7, which would authorize an international force to secure and defend humanitarian aid corridors.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
International pressures to stop the faux “famine” in Gaza has slowed Israeli ops and given Hamas more leverage for its demands - all absent any address of hostages. However, Hamas appears to have over played its hand in publishing videos of emaciated hostages being tortured.
Israel is being forced into a ‘damned the torpedos’ moment, and it appears Trump is supportive.
Targeted strikes continue in S Lebanon against Hezbollah leaders and infrastructure. No end in sight. Hezbollah is powerless to stop Israel. Lebanese govt is weak and unable to neutralize Hezbollah either.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
East Azerbaijan’s (Iran) governor warns Tabriz has less than 75 days of water left as Bukan Dam drops to one-third capacity and protests erupt in multiple cities over worsening water and electricity shortages
***
Last month Iran received Chinese HQ9B air defense systems. These restored the Iranian losses to recent Israeli airstrikes that wiped out most of their air defenses. That led to an unofficial truce between Israel and Iran.
It is essential that China restore Iranian air defenses because China is dependent on Iranian oil to keep their economy going. China is being paid for the HQ9B purchase with Iranian oil.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/202508040930.aspx#gsc.tab=0
OBSERVATION - Unrest is on the increase as Iran buys military hardware and essentially ignores its population.
Lebanon -
Drones carry out an airstrike targeting the city of Khiam in southern Lebanon.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
SDF: Our forces exercised their right to confront an attack on their positions in the village of “Al-Imam”. At exactly 3:00 AM on Monday, factions affiliated with the Syrian Transitional Government forces launched an attack against four positions of our forces in the village of “Al-Imam” in the Deir Hafer area. Our forces dealt with the attack and responded as necessary to defend their positions and fighters, with clashes erupting that lasted 20 continuous minutes
***
Internal Security regains control of Tal al-Hadid, Rima Hazem, and Walga in the Sweida countryside. Source: SANA
Mexico -
President Donald Trump extended the current 25% tariff rate on imports from Mexico for 90 days. Trump said the complexities of a trade deal with Mexico are different than other trade partners due to problems and assets on the southern border.
Thanks Godzilla.
They are revealing themselves for what they truly are, and it's not the party of love and tolerance.
India’s largest oil refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, has urgently purchased 7 million barrels of US crude for September delivery, according to Reuters.
How about keeping it at home and refining it for US to lower our fuel costs???????
...six pound bundle of puppy...
No photo? All puppies require photos be shared :-)
Happiness is an amazing puppy... Thanks for sharing.
Thanks for bringing the low cattle herd problem up. On X blame is put on the monopoly of 4 processors, but probably more to the story than that.
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