Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Trump's comments about Arab's being responsible for 'taking in' the "Palestinians' has had an effect: Arab States don't want Palestinians in 'their back yard'... The result? They'll be less likely to criticized Israel's attack.
Third morning of sub -20 degree temps - brrrr
Morning routine interrupted so this is late and I’ve limited some of my observations for the time as many are self evident in the posts
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
In the weeks since Donald Trump returned to office, Democrats and legal scholars have warned that he’s provoking a constitutional crisis by trying to expand his power and ignore laws that stand in his way.
On Wednesday, the White House had a new response to that. It’s not the president who is causing the problem, said press secretary Karoline Leavitt, it’s the judges who are blocking some of his agenda by saying it’s illegal.
“We believe these judges are acting as judicial activists rather than honest arbiters of the law,” Leavitt told reporters. She insisted that “the real constitutional crisis is taking place within our judicial branch.”
OBSERVATION - It has been exposed that many of these activist judges have serious skeletons in their closets and their rulings are an effort to protect them.
***
Democrat Rep Ayanna Pressley just said the quiet part out loud: Democrats are willing to work with anyone who is serious about censoring Americans.
“We are all willing to work with anyone who is serious about doing the work of censoring the American people and advancing progress.”
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The annual U.S. Inflation rate increased to 3% in January, according to the federal government’s Consumer Price Index Summary released Wednesday morning.
The index is a broad measure of the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy.
Inflation from December 2024 to last month increased 0.05%, also according to the report.
The increases were higher than Dow Jones estimates for 2.9% of the annualized rate and 0.3% for the month-over-month increase, according to CNBC.com.
The monthly increase from November to December was 0.4%.
OBSERVATION - A parting ‘gift’ from the biden regime to the citizens.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier reportedly collided with a Panamanian cargo ship near Port Said, Egypt last night. No reports on the extent of any damage
***
Mexico is making further overtures to avert President Donald J. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on exports to America. In their latest move, at President Claudia Sheibaum’s urging, the Mexican Senate approved on Tuesday the entry of a U.S. Special Forces group into the country, ostensibly to train Mexico’s marines as part of the “Strengthening the Capacity of the Special Operations Forces of the Navy” program.The training arrangement—which was approved by a unanimous vote—will see a contingent of U.S. military personnel serving as advisors and trainers for Mexico’s marine forces, with a special focus on combating the country’s drug cartels. A similar agreement was approved during the six-year term of Mexican President López Obrador, which saw 11 U.S. military personnel enter Mexico to oversee marine training.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2025/02/12/mexico-authorizes-entry-of-u-s-special-forces/
OBSERVATION - Some out there view this as authorizing SF to go after the cartels. Not so fast folks. It is a first step, one necessary before that occurs. The training of Mexican forces to go after cartels is a confidence building mission as well as one designed to establish a degree of loyalty to our SF. Second, it gets the mexican public used to the presence of SF in country. So that when the order is given, our SF will have created a more friendly working relationship and more effective counter-cartel operation(s).
POLITICAL FRONT –
In-fighting between Democrat lawmakers and far-left activist groups has been escalating in recent weeks as the resistance party is being viewed as not doing enough to stop President Trump and his agenda.
Axios reported last week that groups such as MoveOn and Indivisible are harassing lawmakers with tens of thousands of phone calls demanding more from their leaders.
The left-leaning outlet revealed that over a dozen Democrat lawmakers had “received historically high call volumes,” insisting they “do more” to stop Trump.
House Democrats had a closed-door meeting in which they lashed out at these liberal groups for siccing their unhinged masses on them and tying up the phone lines.
OBSERVATION - More at the link above. Democrat leadership has been struggling with internal dissension ever since the Israeli-Gaza war broke and the radical anti-semite wing attacked more moderate democrats for supporting Israel. Some of the messages the rabid lefties have gotten thru to some congress critters judging from the unhinged actions of some lately, many even going as far as calling for violence.
One thing seem sure, the split is hindering a unified response to Trump’s daily assaults against the left’s sacred cows and grift.
***
The delayed House GOP budget resolution was unveiled Wednesday morning featuring $2 trillion in mandatory spending cuts and a $4 trillion cap on raising the debt limit.
Raising the debt limit was a controversial issue sought by President Donald Trump while seeking to deliver on vows to cut government spending.
The 45-page bill also includes $4.5 trillion of room for Ways and Means to lock in tax cuts, while Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., has been arguing that will not be enough to do all Republicans want.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/house-gop-budget/2025/02/12/id/1198818/
OBSERVATION - Some encouraging DOGE to review this bill as well - though they may have had some input/influence already. The $4 Trillion spending cap is sadly required because biden left the deficit growing at a rate of $1 Trillion every 100 days. It will take some time for DOGE cuts and clawbacks and enforced fiscal responsibility to turn that trend.
That all said, the democrats will be seeking every way possible to torpedo this bill or force their pet cutouts to keep pork spending high.
***
U.S. District Court Judge George O’Toole has reinstated President Donald J. Trump’s buyout offer to federal workers under the “Fork in the Road” deferred resignation program. The judge ruled the government unions who filed a lawsuit seeking to block the program lack legal standing and that his court lacks the judicial jurisdiction to even rule on the matter.
***
The US Senate confirmed Tulsi Gabbard as the new Director of National Intelligence along partisan lines, giving President Trump another huge win for his Cabinet.
OBSERVATION - Mr T, “I pity the fool” who placed her on an airline ‘watch’ list.
***
RFK Jr passed the senate to be the next HHS secretary.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump: “Great talks with Russia and Ukraine yesterday. Good possibility of ending that horrible, very bloody war!”
OBSERVATION - Still a lot of dust and massive spinning of the 90 minute conversation btw Trump and Putin. Initial contacts - have to see how this pans out.
Additional note- Ukraine is in a tight place, strong suspicion of corruption and grifting from military arms and money donations. Trump still stings from the second impeachment where he wanted to investigate those issues in his first term.
Illegal Immigration –
AG Pam Bondi announced charges have been filed against
* New York state
* Gov. Kathy Hochul
* AG Letitia James
for violating immigration law!
“NY has chosen to prioritize illegal aliens over American citizens. It stops now”
China –
The Australian Department of Defense has announced an incident between a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft patrolling over the South China Sea and a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) J-16 fighter aircraft. The J-16 deployed flares close to the P-8A that came within 30 meters (~100 feet) of the aircraft. The “unsafe and unprofessional” action of the Chinese aircraft mirrors those of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea in recent years and is not a new tactic employed by the Chinese. China claims the majority of the South China Sea inside its “nine-dash line, a series of unfounded territorial claims made by the Chinese that overlap the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of a number of nations in the Western Pacific.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1890069874447171755?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFc
Japan –
Japan’s military is monitoring 7 PLA Navy vessels that on February 10-11 sailed southeast in the waters between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island, heading toward the Pacific Ocean.
The 7 PLA Navy vessels include 2 Luyang III class missile destroyers, 2 Jankai II class frigates, a Huqi class supply ship, a Yujiao-class landing ship, and a Yusheng class landing ship.
https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1889641168021102721?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Sudan and Russia have agreed “on everything” regarding the creation of a Russian naval base, the head of the republic’s Foreign Ministry said
***
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov provided updates on the Putin-Trump conversation:
“Both leaders agreed to begin preparations for contacts, including the meeting location. A negotiating group with the US has been initiated.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine faced yet another large Shahed drone attack. Out of 140 launched, 85 were shot down by air defense and another 52 were suprssed by electronic warfare. The Odesa and Kharkiv regions were hit by drones.
Russian losses per 13/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1250 men
+17 tanks
+23 AFVs
+58 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+2 AD systems
+168 service vehicles
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vodyane Druhe village in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
Massive geopolitical moves now that Trump and putin have directly spoken. Ukraine and the EU are feeling very concerned that they will be left on the sidelines in any negotiations. Will be looking into this closer as there is a lot of spin out there on all sides.
The war continues to grind on with very few changes.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that Russian drones violated Moldova’s airspace with two drones exploding on its soil. Russia denied the report.
The Russian ambassador, summoned to Moldova’s Foreign Ministry, was shown fragments of Russian drones that exploded in southern Moldova last night.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania’s defense minister Sakaliene this morning in Brussels called the “illusion” that Trump and Putin will find a solution to the war in Ukraine “a deadly trap.” “Whether we decide to fall under the illusion that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin are going to find a solution for all of us, and that would be a deadly trap, or we will, as Europe, embrace our own economic, financial and military capacity. And we will be the ones who will be deciding what will happen in Europe and in Ukraine with United States. Let’s not be naive. United States is not only the most significant contributor of NATO alliance, but also the one that has been, I want to reiterate, paying for our security. And that needs to be corrected.”
***
Germany’s Defense Minister said he regretted that Trump administration had already made concessions to Russia, adding that Ukraine’s possible NATO membership and the whether it should concede territory to Russia should not be taken off the table before talks start
***
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs: Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity are unconditional. Our priority must now be strengthening Ukraine and providing robust security guarantees. In any negotiation, Europe must have a central role. Our Weimar+ statement
***
At least 1 Russian drone violated Romanian/NATO airspace, according to Romania’s defense ministry. One of the drones may have crashed on Romanian territory and a search will be carried out in the morning
***
A 24-year-old Afghan “asylum seeker” drove at a group of people in Munich, police say, injuring at least 28 Officers are treating the incident as a suspected attack - the suspect was known to police for theft and drug offences Police say the car accelerated before hitting a trade union rally; an officer fired one shot at the suspect before he was arrested
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says the agreed to hostage release scheduled for this weekend is back on.
- Hamas or affiliated fired a rocket at Israel, it failed to exit Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel considers significant strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites: WSJ, citing US intelligence assessment
Hamas says it will release hostages as planned, apparently resolving cease-fire dispute. Deal made with Egypt, not Israel or any other negotiations element.
Netanyahu says the claim is fake.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas confirms its commitment to implementing the ceasefire agreement, including the exchange of prisoners and detainees.
Hamas has reached an agreement with the Egyptian mediators to resume the hostage release deal in its original form in exchange for caravans and fuel.
Supplies will enter Gaza on Thursday, and Hamas will announce three hostages for release on Saturday. Hamas announces that it will not comply with Trump’s demand to release all hostages.
***
In the last few minutes, a launch was detected inside the Gaza Strip.
The rocket fell in the Gaza Strip.
The IDF is now attacking the Gaza Strip in response to the rocket launch
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: Iranian Quds Force and Hezbollah exploited Beirut airport to smuggle arms funds on civilian flights
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The IDF has eliminated over 60 Palestinian terror operatives and arrested more than 210 in a major counter-terrorism operation in the northern Samaria, launched on January 21.
Dubbed Operation Iron Wall, the offensive is expected to continue for weeks, with Israeli forces operating in Jenin, Tulkarem, and Tubas.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israel Army Radio: The Egyptian Defense Minister ordered military brigades in the Sinai and Rafah regions to maintain the highest level of readiness for war.
(Open Source Intel on X)
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Things are still dicy as far as this weekend’s hostage release. Hamas via Egypt has backtracked on its refusal to release any further hostages. Israel is fully ready to drop the hammer. This kind of playing with hostages is the MO of Hamas - to jerk the chains of its opponents, primarily Israel.
Syria -
US says assistance for managing and securing camps in northeastern Syria with Islamic State-linked prisoners cannot last forever, camps cannot remain a direct US financial responsibility, urges countries to repatriate their displaced and detained nationals in region
So much winning!!!
No post today - grandkids shared their flu with grampa
No post today - grandkids shared their flu with grampa
You’ll be in fightin’ form by next week. Stay safe, warm, and get well.
It has been going around here in the SE, GWS.
And I’ll go take my Vit E, Vit C, Zinc, etc.
Get better soon!
Feel better soon!
Fluids and lots of rest... You’re in our prayers.
Feeling much better this morning. So back at it. A little larger than normal post as a result.
Can’t believe we are half way thru February already!
Globalism / Great Reset –
The International Organization for Migration is the primary human smuggling organization that the United Nations uses to shuffle weaponized humans (“migrants”) around the geopolitical chess board to destabilize nation-states and dilute their cultures.
The International Organization for Migration, or IOM, sent out pink slips — notice of dismissal from employment — to 3,000 employees working on a United States resettlement program, including hundreds based at home in the latest blow to an aid and development community reeling from the Trump administration’s foreign aid funding freeze.
“The loss of funding from the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, USRAP, meant we had to notify about 3,000 of our colleagues that their jobs will be ending,” Amy Pope, IOM’s director general, told staff in an internal newsletter last week. She said that further cuts are likely.
OBSERVATION - once again, why in the H E double toothpicks were we funding this.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Various anti-Trump rallies and protests scheduled in cities across the country. As with this level of activity, there is always the possibility of some vandalism and minor violence.
See the Tesla action under “Terrorism”. As always, keep abreast of your local news and avoid protest areas.
***
On Wednesday, Democrat Rep. Robert Garcia spoke with CNN’s Brianna Keilar about DOGE Chairman Elon Musk, as Garcia had called Musk a “d***” in a hearing earlier that day.
In his explanation to Keilar, Garcia called for using “actual weapons” against DOGE and Musk. Now, Republican Rep Nancy Mace is calling for his censure.
“What I think is really important, and what the American public want, is for us to bring actual weapons to this bar fight,” he explained regarding Musk.
The resolution says that, because the congressman said the Democratic Party should “bring actual weapons” to fight against Musk, “Representative Robert Garcia attempted to incite violence against a special government employee of the Federal Government” and he should be censured.
OBSERVATION - Another call for violence from a leftist on capitol hill. His is one of a growing number Garcia should be censored and removed from congress.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
A transgender teen who was allegedly planning a mass shooting on Valentine’s Day in Indiana had an “obsession” with Nikolas Cruz — the gunman who killed 17 people at his high school in Parkland, Florida, authorities say
.
Trinity Shockley, 18, who was charged with conspiracy to commit murder and two terrorism-related charges for her alleged plan to shoot up Mooresville High School, also had a collage of mass shooters on her bedroom wall, according to a shocking affidavit obtained by CNN affiliate WISH.
In the affidavit, police detail the messages between Shockley and a person in an online chat room, where the teen allegedly discusses her plans to commit a mass murder with an AR-15 that she planned on purchasing
OBSERVATION - Trans community on social media has been ramping up the flames to go kinetic against anyone against their agenda or sexual ‘identity’. Already, over the past few year it has been transgenders committing the majority of ‘mass shootings’ across the country. This is growing into a form of terrorism more so than a CW2 threat.
MORE RELATED TRANS RELATED TERROR -
A former San Jose State University volleyball coach reported finding a bullet hole in her home Monday, an incident she believes was a retaliation for her opposition to male players in women’s sports.
Batie Smoose said the [shooting] incident occurred when she was in a virtual meeting with members of the Independent Council on Women’s Sports (ICONS).
She was speaking with Mountain West Conference volleyball players involved in the lawsuit and the lead attorney Bill Bock. As they were discussing the legal battle and the NCAA’s new policy regarding gender eligibility, Batie-Smoose heard glass break in the background.
“I hear this big sound and it sounds like breaking glass and at first I was just like ‘what just happened? Where did that sound come from?’ And then, once it registered, I look over to the window and I see the bullet hole.”
She also told Fox News the police department’s decision to label the incident as mere vandalism is “crazy.”
“So because it might potentially not be a gun that it’s just considered vandalism even though it can harm you?” Batie-Smoose said. “That’s kind of crazy to me. Regardless, if an object at that force comes to your head, you’re going to be harmed. It’s crazy to me.”
***
Hamas calls for mass protests worldwide against Trump and the American government:
See ISRAEL below
***
Vandalism and property damage against Tesla vehicles are likely over the weekend, as dozens of protests against Elon Musk are being organized. Arson of Tesla vehicles is possible. This qualifies more as an act of terrorism VS CW2.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
As avian flu drives egg prices to record levels and increasingly poses a risk to humans, moves by the White House to cut spending and restrict communications have hobbled public health officials’ response, with the new administration yet to outline a clear strategy on how it plans to stem the spread of the virus.
State and local public health officials have gone weeks without regular updates on avian flu from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after President Donald Trump froze nearly all external communications from the agency, said a person familiar with the situation. It wasn’t until this week that some of those communications began to resume, the person said.
OBSERVATION - They are handling the latest bird flu as if it was wuhan - in a ham handed fashion that is not addressing the issue to begin with. Secondly, taking over 200 million egg laying hens is a very simple and fast way to jack up grocery prices given that eggs are used in a plethora of products people buy, and not just the eggs alone. Gotta get back to common sense.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The military is increasing its surveillance of Mexican drug cartels to collect intelligence to determine how to best counter their activities, the top general overseeing troops in North America said on Thursday.
“We have also increased some uniquely military capabilities that will get after ... the cartels, which are driving the illegal migration, and that is primarily through airborne ISR to get more information on those and figure out how we can counter their actions,” said Air Force General Gregory Guillot, head of U.S. Northern Command.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/military-surveillance-mexican/2025/02/13/id/1198978/
OBSERVATION - In the intelligence world, to be effective you’ve got to build the database on the threat. The cartels are operating at a generally low intensity combat level - most often lately against each over over disputed territory. Those elements in ‘safe’ territories have comms directed towards smuggling - humans and drugs. Who is doing what to whom and from where are critical Intel data points needed before one can effectively develop any lethal countermeasures.
***
The United States Army allegedly repurposed more than $151 million that it took from soldiers’ paychecks for food, and spent it on other costs instead, according to a Military.com report.
The Army typically takes $460 per month from junior enlisted soldiers who live in barracks on base, which is supposed to go toward food. But data reviewed by the outlet show that for the Army’s 2024 fiscal year, over $151 million of the $225 million that was collected by 11 of the Army’s largest bases for food, went into the Army’s general fund.
OBSERVATION - As a veteran this really burns me. Over this period, base were shutting down mess halls, forcing enlisted to either go with out a lunch or spend more money out of their pockets for off base fast food. People should be reassigned to Leavenworth for this abuse, learning how to make little rocks out of big ones.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order preventing federal funding for schools implementing COVID-19 vaccine mandates…The executive order also will give the Department of Health and Human Services Secretary led by Robert F. Kennedy “a plan to end coercive COVID-19 vaccine mandates.”
OBSERVATION - I find it unreal that there are still some organizations and in particular, schools still mandating the jab.
***
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has just made the explosive admission that Covid mRNA “vaccines” are spiked with contaminations that triggered a global surge in cancers.
The federal agency made the admission after an FDA study confirmed that Pfizer’s Covid mRNA “vaccine” contains dangerous levels of excess DNA contamination.
https://slaynews.com/news/fda-admits-covid-mrna-vaccines-cause-cancer/
OBSERVATION - More and more this ceases to be poor quality control, but a deliberate effort to kill as many as possible.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The democrats on capitol hill continue to be in disarray, spending a lot of energy trying to rally the sheeple into some sort of violent response - so much so that even James Carvel is noting that Trump is simply overwhelming them on just the basics.
The main developing battle front is with activist judges who’ve been shopped to give TROs and force actual trials weeks and months down the road. This is an effort by the left to deflate the crush of actions being set in motion by Trump across a broad spectrum of EOs.
This past week, Trump has initiated far more serious legal assaults on some key players, for instance - Attorney General Pam Bondi filed a lawsuit against the state of New York, specifically naming Governor Kathy Hochul and State Attorney General Letitia James over immigration enforcement.
The complaint alleges that New York law directs the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to NOTIFY undocumented, illegal migrants when federal agents inquire about their immigration status.
Other efforts by the left have resulted in the Trump agenda being OK by judges.
Like it or not, too much of the fight is moving to the courts. But it is not stopping Trump who continues to adapt and press the attack.
***
(FO) House Republicans are considering a continuing resolution (CR) ahead of the 14 March deadline to avert a possible government shutdown. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said Democrats are making spending bill counter-offers that are “not deliverable.”
***
(FO) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said he is planning to claw back $20 billion that the Biden EPA deposited at Citibank for use by climate nonprofits. Zeldin said the move was an unprecedented attempt to shield Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund programs from government oversight.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
VP Vance seriously ruffled some feathers in his address in Munich - hitting hard on the violation of free speech rights -
As an example of Europe’s draconian attacks on free speech, the V.P. cited a recent egregious case in Great Britain: “A little over two years ago, the British government charged Adam Smith Conner, a 51-year-old physiotherapist and an Army veteran, with the heinous crime of standing 50 meters from an abortion clinic and silently praying for three minutes…In an even more extreme example of government overreach, Vance noted that Scottish officials recently distributed letters to citizens who reside within so-called safe access zones, “warning them that even private prayer within their own homes may amount to breaking the law.”
OBSERVATION - Vance is a second Trump in many ways, bringing in a breeze of common sense and sanity to the oxygen deprived minds of globalist bureaucrats. He is unlike past VPs who’ve basically kept out of the limelight. Trump is not afraid to place him front and center and he gets the MAGA message across loud and clear. I don’t think Vance is a given for the next presidency, but Trump seems to be clearly letting him establish himself within the current MAGA parameters to earn that shot.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump took his booking photo and placed it in an ornate frame and mounted in the hallway out side the oval office. . .
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
(FO) Recorded Future’s Insikt Group said China-linked hacking group Salt Typhoon conducted a hacking campaign from December 2024 through January 2025 that compromised two more U.S.-based telecoms. Insikt Group said Salt Typhoon also targeted university networks, likely targeting telecommunications technology research.
Illegal Immigration –
Initial numbers for Jan 2025 indicate illegal crossings could be at their lowest in decades.
China –
Taiwan’s President announced this morning that his government is raising the national defense spending to at least 3%, it would run a campaign to counter China’s “cognitive warfare,” and attempt to increase other democratic nations’ dependency on them for high technology.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
putin already dialing in his propaganda machine to confront Trump and Ukraine talks.
Russia also denies that it was one of their Shahed drones that hit the Chornobyl, saying it was a false flag incident concocted by Ukraine. Parts recovered indicate it was a Russian Shahed.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.
RUMINT –
Ukraine’s Zelensky: Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia is planning to deploy troops to Belarus this summer under pretense of training and exercises - just as Moscow did ahead of the full-scale war of Ukraine. He tells allies maybe they’ll threaten Ukraine or maybe “all of you”
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian delegation headed by President Zelensky met with U.S. delegation headed by VP JD Vance in Munich
Russia launched 70 Shahed drones of which 33 were shot down. Another 37 were supressed by electronic warfare. Yesterday Ukraine dealt with 133 Shahed drones
Key events from the past two days -
- Ukraine’s emergency services revealed debris from the Russian drone that struck Chornobyl NPP. Radiation levels at the site measured 0.57 µSv/h, within safe limits.
- Drone struck Moldova
- Drone struck Romania.
Russian losses per 15/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1180 men (Yesterday 1200)
+11 tanks
+17 AFVs
+59 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+127 service vehicles
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk report they are struggling.
“Ukrainian forces dominate the skies, making movement nearly impossible beyond 3 km from Selydove. Supply lines are cut, leaving our troops behind without food, water, or fuel. Drones and artillery relentlessly target our positions, preventing rotations. Ukrainian electronic warfare exploits gaps in our defenses, leading to heavy losses. Our soldiers suffer in freezing conditions with no reinforcements or equipment adjustments allowed. Constant shelling on rear positions worsens the chaos. Morale is low, with troops feeling overwhelmed and desperate for airstrikes to counter Ukraine’s pressure.”
NOTE - This is reportedly from a Russian source, but could easily be a fake/propaganda. However, recent weeks have shown Russia essentially stalled in the Pokrovsk region making very little to no gains. And with other reports, could have a degree of truth.
Summary —
The big story is the maneuvering on a massive geopolitical scale by Trump and other potential players in any kind of a brokered peace in Ukraine. I think Trump et al are being just vague enough to keep all parties on the defensive until serious discussions dig in.
Russian losses reflect a decline in number and intensity of Russian attacks.
I’m leery of the reported moral stories from Russian troops, but there is evidence that to some extent Russian forces are wore out and Ukraine’s defenses have stiffened with them controlling the drone warfare. It would also be supported by the very heavy casualties Russian forces have faced over the past several months - with only about a 50% replacement by conscripts. Russian losses have dropped by 25-30% over the past couple weeks. That reflects on the battle intensity of the same period.
Europe / NATO General –
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for the creation of an “army of Europe” to guard against Russia as he suggested the US may no longer come to the continent’s aid.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he also said that Ukraine would “never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement” after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start peace talks.
In a speech on Friday, in which he attacked European democracies, US Vice President JD Vance warned that Europe needed to “step up in a big way” on defense.
Zelensky said: “I really believe the time has come - the armed forces of Europe must be created.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl27x74wpo
OBSERVATION - Just as he did in his first term, Trump is further forcing European nations to carry their share of the defense burden rather than rely on the US deep pockets.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Three hostages released by Hamas now safe in Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Released hostages Sagui Dekel-Chen, Sasha Troufanov, and Iair Horn have arrived at an Israeli army facility near the border community of Re’im after being escorted out of the Gaza Strip by troops.The three hostages will undergo an initial physical and mental checkup at the army site, and meet family members after 498 days in captivity
Released Israeli prisoner Yair Horn: All kidnapped must be returned to their homes, they have no more time
Trump reiterated that ALL hostages should have been released, but is deferring to Israel on what actions to take at this time. Further, he confirmed he would support their actions.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas calls for mass protests worldwide against Trump and the American government:
“We call on our masses, our Arab and Islamic nation, and freedom-loving people around the world to take to the streets in mass demonstrations in cities across the globe and turn the upcoming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday into a global movement against forced displacement and expulsion.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanon’s government denied landing permission to an Iranian passenger plane in Beirut following Israeli pressure, as reported by local channel Al Jadeed.
Yedioth Ahronoth, citing Israeli intelligence sources: The Iranian plane that was prevented from landing at Beirut airport was carrying millions of dollars for Hezbollah
The IDF has warned it may take action to stop Iran from smuggling millions of dollars to Hezbollah via civilian flights from Tehran to Beirut.
Now it is being reported that all Iranian planes linked to the IRGC, will be turned back mid-flight after Israeli warnings
Violent physical clashes then broke out between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah supporters blocking the road near Beirut Airport. The road was blocked by burning tires.
A convoy containing the Deputy Head of United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), was attacked by Hezbollah supporters near Beirut International Airport, with at least one vehicle being burned and several UNIFIL staff members being injured before the Lebanese Army arrived to disperse the crowd.
In response to the Lebanese Government rejecting the entry of Iranian planes with Lebanese citizens, Iran announces the ban on Lebanese planes entering Iran until the issue is resolved.
Today (Saturday) Hezbollah has taken to the streets of Beirut once again to protest. This time, they brought out women and children.
In an attempt to draw heartbreaking images and in turn make the Lebanese security look bad.
***
Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, the US Army commander overseeing implementation of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, says he is “confident that LAF will control all population centers in the Southern Litani Area before next Tuesday.”
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces continue raids across the region to arrest terrorists and disrupt terror operations.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Many pundits and analysts are suggesting that Phase 2 will never be agreed upon because Hama’s demands are too extreme and they would stretch out the hostage release to a period of years.
Thus it is expected that Israel will resume combat operations in Gaza shortly after the Phase 1 period is over, in about two weeks. Reserve divisions have been called up and a two week period, given how IDF can get these units ready in the past, is adequate time for preparation of equipment and plans.
I fully expect Israel to target getting troops into areas now identified as holding hostages as quickly as possible, thanks to Hama’s poor OPSEC during these hostage release ceremonies. And without biden to hold them back, Israel will be far more deadly.
On the Lebanese front, Lebanon is showing that Hezbollah is still the major player in Lebanese politics and military. The violence at the Beirut airport with the Lebanese govt being called out for allowing flights carrying millions in payment to Hezbollah operatives - in violation of the cease fire - makes this very clear.
I really don’t think Maj. Gen. Jeffers has a clue as to what is at stake. Israel will not pull out as long as Hezbollah can pose a threat to N Israel and Lebanon continues to fail in its part of the bargain to make the area south of the Litani River secure from Hezbollah forces.
New reports suggesting that Israel is in the planning phase for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next 6 months. Such a strike may involve the US in supplying air refueling aircraft, but not actual combat aircraft. As the this six month window progresses, we’ll have to monitory deployment of Navy CSGs and other strategic assets to the region.
This comes at a time when the IAEA is reporting Iran having increased its stockpile of 60% pure uranium by a substantial amount. With so much of the 60% program being kept under wraps, movement towards 90% (weapons grade) is likely under even tighter wraps. Again, the issue is the deliverability of a nuclear weapon. Iran doesn’t have aircraft or rockets capable of delivering a basic Hiroshima style bomb - too big. As I’ve noted before, this can be worked around via shipping container, or ship or commercial aircraft to deliver the device.
Have they received the technical support to jump over that hurdle? Russia, Pakistan and N Korea have all participated in some way to Iran’s nuclear program - did they slip them the plans and technology ?
Iran –
Iran received the first of two Chinese shipments of a rocket fuel precursor chemical on Thursday, CNN reported.
The Iranian registered ship, Golbon, arrived in Bandar Abbas on Thursday, according to publically available shipping records.
The ship was reportedly carrying a 1,000-ton shipment of sodium perchlorate, a precursor chemical for rocket fuel, European intelligence sources told CNN.
The analysts said this may be a sign that Iran is facing supply chain issues, although CNN hinted that this is an issue even the United States could face.
It could also be a sign that Iran has “dramatically” ramped up missile production, analysts noted. Iran had already begun ramping up production following October 7.
The analysts said that solid ammonium perchlorate fuel was typically used in short-range missiles rather than long-range missiles, which use liquid fuel.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-842197
OBSERVATION - Planetary mixers critical for Iran’s missile production, averts the need for on-sight fueling of projectiles, enhances precision and range of missiles. All of Iran’s mixers were reportedly destroyed by Israel, taking solid fuel rocket engine production off line for several years as it takes time and money to replace them. Iran may be trying to back door production of lower quality rocket engines for shorter ranged rockets using other methods less dependable. Alternatively, the order for ammonium perchlorate may have predated the Israeli strike and wasn’t cancelled by Iran.
Agree. And Vance needs to be careful what he says... Unless Trump wants him to toss out opinions.
I think Vance is in alignment with trump on 5his.
Above taken from your post.
The two words *Common Sense* are contained throughout all your postings. Glad you are feeling better!!!
Could have upwards of 15 inches of snow by Tuesday. Good, we need it in the mountains.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Various anti-Trump rallies and protests scheduled in cities across the country. As with this level of activity, there is always the possibility of some vandalism and minor violence. See the Tesla action under “Terrorism”. As always, keep abreast of your local news and avoid protest areas.
***
(FO) Former Energy Department Official and Presidential Climate Action Project Executive Director William S. Becker called for Democrats to begin a 2026 midterm campaign on removing President Donald Trump from office.
“We need an American equivalent of the Arab Spring,” and pro-Democrat nongovernmental organizations should launch an 18 month coordinated communications campaign to support Democrats in the midterm, Becker added.
OBSERVATION - In the current space - time continuum 2026 is in the way distant future for democrats. What I’ve seen so far is that they are so tweaked from losing all their honey pots and grift that they are going to have difficulty getting their act together for the midterms. Add to it the growing mountain of fraud, waste and abuse these same democrats are attempting to defend has caught the eyes of Americans, and I don’t see Trump getting off message and no longer nearly daily in front of the press informing the US of these abuses. In fact, some project a potential blood bath for democrats in the senate.
That will take a lot out of the sails for a “color revolution” unless the left manages to some how motivate its foot soldiers to begin the violence.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Photos released today of the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) conducting flight operations in the Mediterranean Sea after a collision with the Panamanian-flagged cargo vessel M/V Besiktas-M near Egypt back on February 12.
“Fully mission capable.”
***
The U.S. Air Force is once again breathing new life into a relic of the Cold War. The legendary B-52 Stratofortress, first flown in the 1950s, is being modernized with new Rolls-Royce F130 engines, state-of-the-art radar systems, and avionics upgrades.
Once complete, the aircraft will be redesignated as the B-52J, a name befitting a bomber expected to remain in service until at least 2050—when the youngest of these airframes will be approaching their centennial.
For all its enduring utility, this modernization effort is an astonishingly long process. If the program stays on schedule—a bold assumption given the Pentagon’s procurement history—the B-52J will not be fully operational until 2033.
This raises a critical question: is this investment a wise use of limited defense dollars in a rapidly evolving threat environment, or is it another example of America’s military-industrial complex clinging to old platforms long past their prime?
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/02/the-u-s-new-air-forces-b-52j-bomber-explained-in-4-words/
POLITICAL FRONT –
There is no honor among thieves -
The New York Post is reporting that DNC Vice Chair David Hogg, who has called for paying reparations to illegal aliens and abolishing police, has been using DNC resources to solicit donations to a PAC he controls and uses to pay himself.
His masters have taught him well . . . . .
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair with some snow showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Trump demands $500 billion in rare earth minerals from Ukraine as repayment for U.S. aid.
Ukraine’s rare earth resources, critical for technology and military equipment, are largely in the disputed Donbas region under Russian control. Zelensky expresses optimism but admits Ukraine cannot access disputed resources without Western help to push out Russian forces.
ISW analysis suggests that Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid indications that the Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations against Kostyantynivka — the southernmost point of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast — in Spring and Summer 2025.
Kostyantynivka is located approximately 15-20 Km southwest of Chasiv Yar.
Russia launched 143 Shahed drones of which 95 were shot down and 46 suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 16/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1730 men
+5 tanks
+84 (!!) AFVs
+11 artillery systems
+ 77 service vehicles
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukrainian military had fully controlled Pischane village south of Pokrovsk
Summary —
Russia may finally be seeing that its push towards Pokrovsk is no longer tactically or strategically sound. However, to pivot the army further south to drive against Kostyantynivka may not be a wise move either. During the fighting in 2014, donetsk separatists and russian forces captured the town, but were soon driven out by Ukraine forces. In the interim time, Ukraine has taken a lot of time to fortify the area and if their intel is picking up Russian build up, it has time to tighten up the region even more. Kostyantynivka is not a small town, so Russia will be forced to try to continue its method of bypassing direct assaults and surrounding it to force a retreat rather than face the likelihood of a massive blood bath of direct assault.
It is about 15-20 km southwest of Chasiv Yar and the main push may come from that direction. Attacks from the east and south have to cross a fair distance of open terrain with a lot of water obstacles - very open season for Ukraine drones. However, Russia will also need to swap out fresh or at least refreshed units for a new offensive effort. Each one of these will drain resources from the rest of the front as high casualties will be expected.
Will have to keep this sector under increased observation.
Europe / NATO General –
(BBC) Europe’s leaders are scrambling to catch up with America’s plans to end the war in Ukraine, whether they like it or not.
Tomorrow will see a hastily arranged summit in Paris to discuss President Trump’s apparent plans to do a deal with his Russian counterpart, despite the objections of Ukraine and its European allies.
Breaking a three-year freeze in talks with Moscow, US and Russian negotiators are due to convene in Saudi Arabia in the week ahead - Ukraine is not invited.
This year’s Munich Security Conference has been a chilling wake-up call for Europe.
OBSERVATION - After decades of relying on the US as the backstop for its defense the message from the White House to Europe is clear: you can no longer take that for granted, you now need to step up and look after your own security.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Rubio held talks yesterday
- Lebanese govt and army at odds with Hezbollah over airline flights from Iran.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Defense Ministry: We have received the shipment of bombs that the Biden administration delayed delivering to Israel
***
According to the information Israel has, 36 of the remaining 73 hostages in Gaza are no longer alive.
Of the 14 hostages remaining to be released as part of phase 1 of the ceasefire agreement, only 6 are still alive. Of these 6, two have been in captivity for over a decade, while the other four have been held since the October 7 massacre.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF: Earlier today (Sunday), several armed individuals moving toward IDF troops in the southern Gaza Strip were struck by an IAF aircraft. Hits were identified.
The IDF once again calls on the residents of the Gaza Strip to follow IDF instructions and refrain from approaching troops deployed in the area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media report an Israeli drone strike on a car near the town of Jarjouaa, in the Nabatieh District. There is no immediate comment from the Israeli army
***
Hezbollah demands Lebanon reverse ban on Iranian planes.
The Iran-backed group also demanded the government ‘take serious measures to prevent the Israeli enemy from imposing its dictates’
The decision to block the flights came after the Israeli military warned that Iran’s Quds Force and Hezbollah were using civilian flights to and from the airport to smuggle money to be used to re-arm the Lebanese group.
Hezbollah condemned the attack by its supporters on the UNIFIL force over the weekend, and called on the Lebanese army to investigate the riots.
“We call on the army command to launch an urgent investigation into yesterday’s attack on the demonstrators and call on the Lebanese government to bear responsibility for protecting them, and for their right to express their positions and demands. We demand that it reverse its decision to prevent Iranian planes from landing at Beirut airport and take serious steps to prevent Israel from imposing its dictates and violating national sovereignty.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
There are 73 hostages still held in Gaza, and Hamas intends to use them as bargaining chips for years, possibly until the end of the decade. This serves as its insurance policy and a strategy to bring Israel to its knees. It has worked in the past for Hamas, and why this process won’t go into a Phase 2.
This ‘insurance policy’ may have hit its termination date given the Trump administration’s impatience with Hamas and its apparent willingness to allow Israel to go back in and finish the job. Israel made a big media event showing a large convoy of semis hauling the delivered bombs from the ports to their bases. These bombs will augment Israel’s internal production. We have a couple weeks to see what the final round(s) of Phase 1 will look like.
We will be seeing just how much backbone the Lebanese govt has standing up to Hezbollah. Israel warned at the start of the ceasefire it will not tolerate Iran shipping money and munitions to Hezbollah via civilian airlines - carrying civilian passengers. Israel turned on flight back early on, but now has shifted the burden apparently to the Lebanese govt.
Keeping all the fighters ‘paid’ is essential to maintaining their loyalty and with economic conditions for the rest of the Lebanese people dismal at best these ‘fighters’ may find other sources of money to maintain their living standard.
The response of Hezbollah was totally in line and should have been expected - yep caught red handed importing money and now trying to use violence to change matters. IDK if this will accelerate into a civil war but it is a direct challenge to its legitimacy as a govt.
Lebanon -
Is Lebanon once again sliding into civil war? An exchange of fire was reported between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army in Beirut. Initial focus is Hezbollah demands to open the airport to Iranian flights (see Israel above).
Syria -
Early reports claim that a recent strike on a vehicle in the Idlib area of Syria was carried out by a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone. These reports have yet to be confirmed and there is no statement from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) as of yet.
Thanks Godzilla
Two birds with one stone...
This one's too good to pass up....
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