What Happens If Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Sites?

National Security Journal ^ | 10/17/2024 | Brent M. Eastwood

[thefactor]

Exactly. So, IMHO, Israel striking Iran’s nuclear sites would not cause Iran to pursue a nuke. I believe Iran is ALREADY pursuing a nuke. So, I’m not sure what the original poster meant when he said it would cause Iran to begin pursuing nukes. That ship has already sailed.

[tired&retired]

They go BOOM!

[dadgum]

The sites would be rendered unusable.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Just because the strikes they launched did not that much does not mean they can’t launch and target whatever they want. The Iron Dome and the THADD defense systems cannot stop Hypersonic missiles or an overwhelming missile attack from both places at once.

Also we, the U.S., as the main arms supplier is running low on all kinds of missiles and munitions, given what we sending to Ukraine and Israel. So there may be a limit at some point on what can be supplied.

For Israel the tide has turned on World Opinion of their operations and the war, and there will be countries that will discontinue trade and of suppling war materials to them. Israel has seen exodus of Capital and People and at least 45,000 businesses have closed. Their economy is going down.

[Brian Griffin]

Jerusalem is regarded as a holy city by Muslims. Iran is not likely to destroy it.

Tel Aviv is a different matter.

[roving]

It makes Jeremiah 49 come to fruition.

[Brian Griffin]

WIKI

Hypersonic glide vehicles are less susceptible to anti-ballistic missile countermeasures than conventional reentry vehicles (RVs). Conventional RVs descend through the atmosphere on a predictable ballistic trajectory. In contrast, a hypersonic glide vehicle such as the DF-ZF can pull-up after reentering the atmosphere and approach its target in a relatively flat glide, lessening the time it can be detected, fired at, or reengaged if an initial attack fails. Gliding makes it more maneuverable and extends its range. Although gliding creates more drag, it flies further than it would on a higher trajectory through space, and is too low to be intercepted by exo-atmospheric kill vehicles. The tradeoff is that warheads have less speed and altitude as they near the target, making them vulnerable to lower-tier interceptors, such as the Mach 17 Russian 53T6, ABM-3 Gazelle.

Chinese hypersonic weapon:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-ZF

The 53T6 (NATO reporting name: ABM-3 Gazelle, previously SH-08) is a USSR anti-ballistic missile. Designed in 1978 and in service since 1995, it is a component of the A-135 anti-ballistic missile system.

The missile is able to intercept incoming re-entry vehicles at a distance of 80 km. The 53T6 is a two-stage solid-propellant rocket armed with a 10 kt thermonuclear weapon.

The missile achieves speeds of approximately Mach 17 (20,800 km/h; 12,900 mph; 5.78 km/s). The engine has very high specific impulse, enabling acceleration from rest to Mach 16 within 3-4 seconds. Maximal load manoeuvre capability is 210 g longitudinal and 90 g transverse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/53T6

[Brian Griffin]

“The Israeli jets would need to be re-fueled”

WIKI

CAM ships were World War II–era British merchant ships used in convoys as an emergency stop-gap until sufficient escort carriers became available. CAM ship is an acronym for catapult aircraft merchant ship.

They were equipped with a rocket-propelled catapult launching a single Hawker Hurricane, dubbed a “Hurricat” or “Catafighter” to destroy or drive away an attacking bomber. Normally the Hurricane fighter would be lost when the pilot then bailed out or ditched in the ocean near the convoy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAM_ship

[rmlew]

Iran isn’t the only country with intercontinental ballistic missiles. Iran has over 100 ICBMs with nuclear payloads. They also developed the Jericho IV with a conventional payload. Israel could hit the nuclear and command facilies with kinetic energy weapons: solid tungsten or depleted uranium warheads weighing over 8oo KG and perhaps up to 2000KG. So it would hit with a force of up to 10 kilotons in a very small area. One or two of those would crack most bunkers if the hit is precise. So lets say Israel fires 4-5 at key targets. To make sure these get through, Israel could use its fighters to take out Iranian air defence missiles batteries that supposedly can intercept ICBMs (Russian S-300 and indigenous Arman and Talash) as well as Iranian airfields and long range surface to surface missiles. If I were planning it I might also use a freighter to fire drones and missiles from the Gulf of Oman at the targets I mentioned before.

[rmlew]

Just because the strikes they launched did not that much does not mean they can’t launch and target whatever they want. The Iron Dome and the THADD defense systems cannot stop Hypersonic missiles or an overwhelming missile attack from both places at once.
All Intermediate and Intercontinental Ballitic Misiless fly at hyperonic speed. There is no evidence taht Iran as a maneuvering hyperonic weapon. Israeli Arrow missile have shot down Iranian missiles in space and the atmosphere. Israeli David's Sling Missiles and Barak ER Missiles have shot them down in the atmosphere. Iron Dome is designed for short ranged rockets and drones. If Israel hits Iranian nuke, they will also hit their ICBMs.