https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1871268127092453542
Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Zelensky claimed that North Korean casualties have passed 3,000. (maybe just psyops)
—
Maybe not as they have been hammered pretty hard by cluster munitions when they walk over open fields
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1871268127092453542
“Right now, the Kurds are advancing on Manbij”
!!!
I wonder if that is the USA talking to Turkey?
Jolani (HTS Commander, new President apparent) has said in recent weeks something favorable about returning Afrin to the Kurds. I can’t see Erdogan liking that.
It is going to be an interesting shake up...
Everybody in the region has a hand in the mix (except has been Russia).
The stockpile worth $16 million included fuselages, engines, navigation systems, and thermal imaging video cameras.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1871269682927583418
“Destination Port Said, Egypt”
Maybe that is the nearest port where a Russian ship can call, and get some credit for repairs. A lot of businesses have to be worried about handling Russian money, and running afoul of some sanctions.
“they have been hammered pretty hard by cluster munitions”
Send more Artillery!
“Millerovo air base in Rostov region”
Lighting up the night!
We don’t seem to get much BDA anymore, after attacks. I wonder if Russian active and passive defenses have gotten better, or how badly their capabilities are declining?
ISW Iran Update, December 22, 2024:
“A senior official in the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) expressed the readiness to negotiate with the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government in order to determine the future role of the SDF. The official, Riad Darar, said that the SDF would negotiate to ensure its participation in a new Syrian political structure and unify the country.
Darar qualified that the SDF would negotiate only if there were a ceasefire with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the establishment of a demilitarized zone around Kobani. These comments come as Turkey, the SNA, and HTS have coerced the SDF to disarm and integrate into a new Syrian security sector under HTS control, depriving it of its autonomy.
Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately said on December 21 that Turkey would only discuss the establishment of a demilitarized zone around Kobani after the SDF reaches an settlement with the HTS-led interim government. This demand is incompatible with the SDF requirement...
Turkey and HTS are continuing to coordinate their efforts to coerce the SDF into disarming and integrating into the HTS-led defense apparatus...
...Fidan previously said on December 21 that Ankara prefers for HTS to address its SDF concerns but reiterated that Turkey would do “whatever it takes” to ensure Turkish national security. This remark refers to the stated Turkish strategic objective of ”eliminat[ing]” the SDF...
...Shara’s meeting with (Lebanese Druze leader Walid) Jumblatt comes amid indications that HTS wants to establish a centralized and unitary Syrian state without autonomous or federal regions for minorities, such as Druze and Kurds.”
I'm not sure if the US will actively help the Kurds, as in providing air support. If we do, that would certainly send a message to Turkey.
Once the rebellion reached the tipping point, there were signals that HTS was pushing back against Turkey. I think it was around 5 December when Erdogan froze HTS accounts in Turkish banks. I think Jolani knows that the Western and Arab nations have a lot more to offer than Turkey.
Hello?
US has been actively ‘helping’ Kurds for years, mostly through air support, so US government can lie about not having many ‘boots on the ground’. Public and documented info.
“I’m not sure if the US will actively help the Kurds, as in providing air support.”
That would be a gigantic thing, if it was openly against NATO ally Turkey, instead of just Turkish jihadi surrogates.
Turkey has reportedly massed a potential invasion force near Kobani.
Probably all parties feel under pressure to maximize their gains before the situation stabilizes, and before Trump comes into office.
Russia sinks or swims on its oil revenue. It is a Center of Gravity for Russia’s ability to make war. Price is one pressure point, but its shadow fleet of tankers is another.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“The U.S. is planning to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil by the end of the year, particularly targeting Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions, told public broadcaster Suspilne on Dec. 23.
Over 100 oil tankers, part of Russia’s shadow fleet, meant to evade sanctions, are expected to be affected, Vlasiuk said.
“There are high expectations from this package,” Vlasiuk told Suspilne in response to the anticipated sanctions. “This will significantly influence the willingness of counterparties to work with Russian suppliers.”
Vlasiuk added that the EU and U.K. are also looking to place additional sanctions on the so-called shadow fleet.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen previously told Reuters in an interview on Dec. 13 that Washington is considering more sanctions on shadow fleet tankers and has not ruled out targeting Chinese banks if they are found to be involved in Russia’s war effort...
...Vlasiuk’s comments follows speculation that the Group of Seven (G7) is considering lowering the price cap, or outright banning Russian oil. Sanctioning Russia’s shadow fleet would make existing and future sanctions on Russian oil more effective.
Targeting many of these ships in one sanctions package means Russia will be unable to replace these ships fast enough to service its export routes, Yuliya Pavytska head of the sanctions faculty at the Kyiv School of Economics, said in an interview with Suspilne on Dec. 23.
The U.K. sanctioned 20 ships on Dec. 17 and the EU banned 52 Russian ships from accessing EU ports on Dec. 16.”
Do svidaniya, warm water port.
The Institute for the Study of War reports today (23 Dec 2024):
“Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on December 23 that Russian elements completed their withdrawal from all positions in Syria’s interior and are now only present at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus.
CTP-ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR report, though it is consistent with the pace of Russian military evacuations from Syria since the fall of Assad. CTP-ISW last observed Russian forces present at the Qamishli base, Hasakah Province, on December 18, suggesting that Russian elements fully evacuated the base in the days since.
Russia still maintains a presence in coastal Syria at Hmeimim Air Base and the port of Tartus, but visual evidence and Syrian reporting continue to indicate that Russian forces are preparing to either significantly draw down or withdraw fully from coastal Syria.
The GUR stated on December 23 that a Russian cargo ship that broke down in the Mediterranean Sea was traveling to Syria to evacuate Russian equipment and weapons from Tartus.
The GUR stated on December 23 that Russia and the “new [Syrian] authorities,” likely referring to the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government, have continued negotiations and have discussed alleged Syrian demands that Russia withdraw from Hmeimim and Tartus no later than February 20, 2025”
A great oil shock may be brewing for Russia - a possible coup de grâce for its Government finances, if the G-7 drop a ban or $40 price cap on Russian crude, backed up by wide sanctions on the shadow fleet and secondary sanctions on banks and customers (which are being discussed). Could be ballgame, in time for Trump to force a hard deal. Might even be Trump’s deal plan, already in motion.
Possibly in preparation for such crushing new sanctions, India has made a large move away from Russian crude in just the last month.
OilPrice.com reports:
“India is no longer the biggest buyer of Russian crude. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s imports of Russian crude fell a massive 55% in November—the lowest figure since June 2022—despite Russia continuing to sell its oil at a discount.
India has lately been trying to diversify its oil supplies: Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during a visit to Guyana that his government views the South American country as key to India’s energy security. Modi told a special sitting of Parliament that he views Guyana as an important energy source and that he will encourage large Indian businesses to invest in the country...
...Guyanese Natural Resources Minister Vickram Bharrat told reporters that Guyana is willing to supply India with a large amount of crude, if Exxon Mobil, the main operator in Guyana’s offshore oil production, agrees to such an arrangement.
“We know Exxon has to do some amount of changes to their lifting schedule and logistics because their preference is for the very large vessels that can accommodate two million barrels mainly because of distance and cost,” Bharrat said.
Meanwhile, CREA estimates that there was a 17% month-on-month increase in the discount on Urals grade crude oil to an average of $6.01 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil. Russia has lost an estimated EUR 14.6 bn in revenues from Urals grade crude exports due to sanctions.”
Hello jjotto. Yes, that was against ISIS, and occasionally SAA. Against Turkish supported forces, we have not supported the Kurds, including during the first Trump administration. When Turkish backed SNA attacked Manbij, Turkish aircraft attacked Kurdish forces, forcing them to abandon the city. The US did not provide support. Our mission there is to eliminate ISIS, and we support SDF with that goal. US air support against SNA would be a significant shift, and could mean direct conflict with Turkish aircraft.
“Guyanese Natural Resources Minister Vickram Bharrat (a Hindi name, that literally means someone from India) told reporters that Guyana is willing to supply India with a large amount of crude, if Exxon Mobil, the main operator in Guyana’s offshore oil production, agrees to such an arrangement.”
I notice a lot of Hindi names and Indian faces coming in with the Trump Administration - Kash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy.
I remember how Trump courted Indian-American voters in his first term, and improved relations with India. Ivanka was a big hit there, and Texas threw a Texas-sized full stadium “Howdy Modi” rally for Indian PM Modi.
India and China have been at each other’s throats. If Russia is weakening as a counter-weight against China for India, only the USA could replace them in that role.
I suspect some geostrategic maneuvering at play. I’ll screw China for you, if you screw Russia for me.
North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on December 23 that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast — roughly a fourth of the total 12,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia.[16] The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported on December 23 that at least 1,100 North Korean troops have been wounded and killed in Kursk Oblast and that North Korea appears to be preparing to deploy an unspecified number of additional troops and military equipment to Russia, possibly including loitering munitions.[17] The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff added that it is unclear if North Korea is rotating troops out of Russia or increasing the deployment of troops to Russia. Russian authorities continue attempts to conceal the presence of North Korean soldiers operating in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported that the Russian military is issuing North Korean troops fake identification documents with Russian names and the Republic of Tuva as their birthplace.[18] A Ukrainian brigade posted footage on December 23 describing Russian-North Korean troop interaction in Kursk Oblast as minimal with no joint training or cooperation between Russian and North Korean units.[19] ISW previously observed reports that poor communication and coordination due to language barriers between Russian and North Korean forces are hindering Russian combat operations in Kursk Oblast.[20] The language barrier reportedly continues to create difficulties in communication and coordination, and North Korean forces are reportedly conducting the initial assaults against Ukrainian positions - after which Russian forces advance and secure positions.[21]
North Korea continues to provide Russia with weapons and troops in exchange for Russian oil, cash, and military technology that violate international sanctions. The New York Times (NYT) reported on December 23, citing unspecified US officials, that US intelligence agencies assessed that North Korea originally proposed the idea of deploying North Korean troops to Russia — not the Kremlin.[22] Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in an article published on December 23 that 60 percent of the artillery and mortar shells that Russian forces use in Ukraine come from North Korea.[23] Unspecified Ukrainian officials also told the WSJ that Russian forces conducted almost one third of their ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine in 2024 with North Korean-provided missiles. The WSJ reported that North Korea originally provided Russia with “decades-old” ammunition, likely in Fall 2023, but is now supplying Russia with “newer” munitions such as 240mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) with “new guidance and control systems.” The WSJ reported that unspecified South Korean officials stated that Russia is transferring fuel and equipment to support the North Korean defense industrial base (DIB) and that 200 North Korean munitions factories are currently operating at full capacity. The WSJ added, citing satellite imagery, that North Korea is expanding a missile manufacturing facility that produces KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles. The WSJ reported, citing unspecified South Korean officials, that Russia is providing air defense systems and sending technicians to aid North Korea's spy satellite operations, and that North Korea likely seeks intercontinental ballistic missile technology from Russia. The WSJ reported that the London-based Open Source Centre assessed that Russia has provided North Korea with over one million barrels of oil since March 2024 — double the annual cap imposed under United Nations sanctions.[24] The WSJ also reported that Olena Guseinova, a researcher at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, assessed that Russia could have paid up to $5.5 billion in arms deals since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and that Russia may be paying up to up to $572 million yearly for the North Korean troop deployment to Russia.
The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria likely in a continued attempt to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into European Union (EU). The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on December 23 that Moldovan President Maia Sandu is preparing a plan for a military operation in Transnistria and speculated that this military operation may lead to a war.[29] The SVR added that Sandu called on the government to develop a plan to establish control over Transnistria and eliminate the Russian presence in the region during a meeting with Moldova's energy security leadership.[30] A milblogger affiliated with the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) insinuated that Sandu is planning to attack Transnistria in retaliation for Russia stopping its gas transit via Ukraine.[31] The milblogger identified the possible place for the false flag attack as the Cuciurgan Power Station in Transnistria. Sandu’s Chief of Staff Andrian Balutel responded to the SVR claims, stating that Moldova is not preparing military operations in Transnistria and that these claims are “are serious and dangerous disinformation, designed to sow panic and distrust.”[32] Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean also stated that SVR claims are part of the Kremlin's “hybrid war,” and the Moldovan Reintegration Policy Bureau reiterated that the Kremlin is trying to destabilize Moldova.[33] The Kremlin had historically used gas and energy blackmail in attempts to destabilize internal Moldovan affairs and may be using Ukraine's refusal to extend the gas transit deal to spread panic and distrust in Moldovan society towards the pro-Western Sandu government.[34] The Kremlin may also be setting information conditions for a false flag operation in Transnistria, however.
Relatives of the Russian 11th Tank Regiment (18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) recorded a joint appeal for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, asking them to stop committing Russian servicemen to endless assaults in the Kharkiv direction.[104] The relatives described Russian assaults near Vovchansk and Hlyboke (northeast and north of Kharkiv City, respectively) as a “conveyer belt of death” given that the Russian military command continues to commit untrained new recruits into small group assaults with small arms. The relatives also complained that the Russian military command is refusing to evacuate wounded personnel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2024
https://x.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1871462390413599211
20DEC Lift 600 tons? Easy!
The flagship of the Oboronlogistics fleet, Ursa Major, set off on another voyage to the Far East with a large project cargo: port cranes weighing 380 tons each, necessary for the expansion of the terminal in Vladivostok, and 45-ton hatch covers for new icebreakers.
Thus, the largest vessel of Oboronlogistics is once again involved in the implementation of state tasks for the development of port infrastructure and the Northern Sea Route.
“Oboronlogistics” has extensive experience in carrying out sea project transportation. This type of delivery is optimal for transporting heavy oversized machinery and equipment. “Oboronlogistics” specialists are ready to offer their potential clients unique solutions for complex transportation of heavy and oversized cargo. For project cargo shipments, please contact the Marine Transportation Department: tel.: +7 (499) 608-89-93 ext. #3342
https://obl.ru/pressa/news/podnyat-600-tonn-legko/
Easy?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.