Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[FtrPilot]

Here's my opinion, which, in earlier times, would be considered heresy.

The F-35 doesn't need a gun...the war in Ukraine is proof.

We have munitions that can kill a moving tank from 30 miles.

Killing a tank with a gun requires the aircraft to overfly the target. Stealth doesn't work against optically aimed AAA.

[PIF]

But ... but its supposed to do CAS too!! Does it carry enough missiles to take out multiple enemy troops multiple times? Asking for a friend.

[FtrPilot]

IMHO, CAS, in the high-threat arena, is not about weapons load. It's about probability of survival (P sub S).

How many CAS missions can an A-10 fly after it has been shot down?

Note: The F-35B, USMC variant, does not have a gun.

Under the USMC CONOPS, the F-35B will forward deploy and support their ground troops.

So, the USMC believes the F-35B can fly CAS missions.

[PIF]

How many hits did it take to shoot an A-10 down, verses how many it would take to shoot an F-35 down in the same mission? A-10: lots, including rpgs. F-35: 1

[FtrPilot]

How far can an RPG fly? 30 miles? That's where the F-35 will launch its SDBs.

The A-10 has to fly 2 miles from its intended target.

Short range SAMs, MANPADs and AAA are the threat.

F-35 will never get within range of any of them.

[PIF]

Shrapnel from SBDs do not distinguish between friend an foe when yards separate the two.

A-10s fly less then 100 feet on many strafing runs. The 35 release a few SBDs some of which miss the scattered troops firing on friendlies, then what? Home to reload or expend its few gun rounds, trying to hit the rest to the enemy?

The 35 is a bomb truck trying to be a fighter and do CAS, neither of which is its intended role. They will not last long in situations like Afghan where they will either succumb to ground fire or fail to protect friendlies, and less time against swarms of J-10s & J-20s

Your mileage may very, but I’ll take A-10s for CAS over 35s all day long.

[marcusmaximus]

Air alert in Crimea now.

[BeauBo]

"THREE ships in Sevastopol last night." (Two Large Landing Ships and A modern Intelligence Collection ship)

Time for a another new Black Sea Flotilla Commanding Admiral yet?

"Add Ivan Khurs to the promotions list" (to submarine).

From Wikipedia:

The Yuriy Ivanov class (Project 18280) is a type of Russian SIGINT intelligence collection ship. The ship is designed by the JSC Central Design Bureau "Iceberg"... its armament consists of light anti-aircraft weapons. The ship on its performance characteristics and capabilities is considerably superior to similar vessels of previous generations mainly due to the versatility and high level of automation and systems integration. The vessels of this class are designed for providing communication. The first ship, Yuriy Ivanov, was laid down in 2004 and was launched on 30 September 2013. The second ship, Ivan Khurs, was launched on 16 May 2017."

[BeauBo]

“Shortly after the loss of the Caesar Kunikov (in mid-February), Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s navy, said Russia had just five of its 13 Ropucha-class landing ships remaining in the Black Sea.

And then there were three.

The Azov and Yamal join the growing Black Sea Fleet Alumnae artificial reef collection.

[PIF]

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ Imminent Threat! Russians Are Encircling Ukrainians in Ivanivske]
—
Day 760: Mar 24

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.

The most interesting news comes from the southern flank.

Here, the situation is very complex and dynamic. After the failure of cutting off Ukrainians from the south of Ivanivske, Russians decided to divert their focus to the north of the village. In this area, Russians made incremental gains which enabled them to break the stalemate and maintain their momentum in and around the village.

In previous reports, I stated how the hill to the northwest of Ivanivske gives Ukrainians a tactical advantage, enabling them to strike Russians who are trying to advance in the lowlands through the village. For this reason, Russians constantly shelled the hill with artillery and bombed it with aviation.

Russians already tried to advance and take the tactical heights by conducting a turning move from the south to engulf Ivanivske but failed.

Therefore, they decided to do the same but from the north of the village. Their goal is to establish a foothold on the hills, then entrench and expand their control of the hill. After that, Russians would inevitably try to establish fire control over the road to the village, force Ukrainians out, and cut off major supply lines.

Once Ukrainian defenses to the south of the village are undermined, the Russian plan is to finish the operation by advancing from the hills to try to take Klischiivka into a pocket.

So, after the Russians finished conducting their artillery preparation and suppressing the Ukrainian fire, they launched a powerful attack with infantry and armored vehicles. Geolocated footage shows that in the aftermath of heavy clashes, Russians established control of part of the hill that is facing the village.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians maintain some positions to the west of the hill in hopes of launching counter-attacks and regaining the lost positions.

After the capture of a tactically important hill, Russians were able to advance while facing much softer Ukrainian resistance in the village itself. For this reason, Russians launched extensive preparations with very destructive TOS thermobaric artillery systems to pummel Ukrainian positions and amplified the destruction with drone strikes.

After that, Russians launched one wave of assaults into the village after another. Ukrainian fighters report that the situation is difficult, but that they are holding on and knocking out Russian armored vehicles. Based on footage from the village, we can see that the village is mostly destroyed as a result of heavy bombings over the past months.

Because of the lack of proper infrastructure for firing positions and sleeping quarters, neither Russians nor Ukrainians can exercise proper control over these ruins with troops on the ground.

For this reason, every Russian assault into the village consists of mostly armored vehicles, in hopes of overwhelming Ukrainians with their sheer firepower and numbers, which leads to heavy losses for the Russians due to lack of infantry support.

However, Ukrainian fighters report that supply lines to the village are now also placed in danger because of the Russian control of the tactical elevation from which they use anti-tank guided missiles to strike Ukrainian vehicles moving along the road.

To counter this, Ukrainians launched FPV drone strikes at Russian positions on the hill. Generally, the roads in this direction are very dangerous, not only because of the Russian anti-tank fire but also because of the damage to other vital roads, like the one to Chasiv Yar, and here, the situation is very intense but much less difficult.

Russians, as seen before, have resorted to scorched earth tactics to demolish any infrastructure that can be used by Ukrainians as fortifications, firing positions, shelters, or sleeping quarters.

In Chasiv Yar, the extensive daily bombings with glide bombs that carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives forced the Ukrainians to no longer use the town as a point of troops rotation and treatment of wounded, and instead have to use nearby towns.

Ukrainian fighters report that roads to the town itself are so damaged by bombings to the point they are no longer usable. However, this comes off as a double-edged sword for the Russians.

Although they inflict hard blows on Ukrainian logistics, they also cause problems for themselves in advance, because they will have nowhere to establish positions if Ukrainians withdraw.

For this reason, the Russian bombings only increase the gray zone between the two sides. Despite all this, Ukrainians are tightly holding their positions in front of Chasiv Yar, where they are planning a counter-attack on the hill north of Ivanivske to relieve their forces.

The goal of Ukrainian forces here is to delay Russian attacks long enough until defensive lines along the Siversky-Donets canal are ready to finally put the Russian offensive to a halt so that Ukrainians may regain the initiative, and switch the course of fighting in their favor.

[PIF]

Russian Mysticism continues even with bad omens
—
Kremlin snuff box, 03/25/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

The enemy struck the officers who had gathered near the ashes of commander Suvorov. Unfortunately, there are dead

The emergency occurred in the Zaporozhye region last Friday. The ashes of the great commander were brought here from Crimea , and, as planned, they are beginning to transport them along the front line.

“The officers gathered around the ashes of Alexander Vasilyevich. Pray, talk. The mistake was to gather them close to the front line, in one of the command and control points. A shell arrived. As a result, unfortunately, four died and 7 were wounded,” a source in the Ministry of Defense told us.

Another confirmed the tragedy. And he said that Suvorov’s ashes “suffered, but only slightly.” Protected by a special armored box in which the remains of Alexander Vasilyevich are carried.

Suvorov’s ashes, despite what happened, will continue to be carried along the front line so that it strengthens the spirit of our military. Let us remind you that the remains of the great commander were temporarily removed from the grave for this purpose on the personal order of Sergei Shoigu.

[PIF]

OT:
SpaceX Starship Flight 4 should happen in the first week of May.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Might have been 4 ships!

“”According to updated information, on March 24, in addition to the large amphibious assault ships Yamal and Azov, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully engaged the reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs and the large amphibious assault ship Kostyantyn Olshanskyi,” the Ukrainian Navy reports.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Ukraine claimed it hit Russian Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship Konstantin Olshansky with a Neptune R-360 anti ship missile. After taking damage, the ship is now taken out of service while exact damage is being determined, navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.

The ship was captured by Russian forces after the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.”

[PIF]

Not so fast. It is unclear how much damage was actually done to any of the ships - see images in article below:

Ukraine Situation Report: Claims Swirl Around Strikes On Landing Ships In Crimea
Ukraine’s military says it successfully struck two more Black Sea Fleet landing ships, but it’s still unclear how bad the damage actually is.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-claims-swirl-around-strikes-on-landing-ships-in-crimea

[blitz128]

Yes there are is lots of conflicting reports and satellite images.

What damage that was done was apparently not as complete as in previous attacks

[PIF]

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ Final Warning! Ukrainian Intelligence Detects a Scary Pattern ]
—
Day 761: Mar 25

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Kupiansk direction.

In the wake of the increased activity along the border of the Belgorod region, Russian military commanders and high-ranking officials started demanding the creation of a “sanitary zone.” The calls for the establishment of the demilitarized zone to protect the Russian border has brought back to the forefront a potential new Russian offensive from the north.

Today, we will examine the prospects of this offensive, given that the main attack direction in the area is north of Kupiansk, particularly the one located between the Seversky-Donets and the Oskil rivers.

As you may remember, Kupiansk and the territories located on the eastern bank of the Oskil River are the core objectives for the Russian political aims of capturing and securing the complete borders of the different invaded regions in the present war and among those, primarily Luhansk and Donetsk.

Fears of an offensive from the north have also multiplied after the recent decision of the Ukrainian regional authorities to evacuate people from dozens of settlements near Kupiansk, as a consequence of the continuous indiscriminate artillery attacks on the civilian population.

Ukrainian forces have been preparing for many months for a possible Russian offensive in this region, and according to various statements, this is one of the best-prepared areas for defense in all of Ukraine.

As an example, Russian forces have been trying for more than a year to reach the city of Kupiansk directly without success.

If we look at the map of defensive lines, Ukrainian forces have arranged here two main defensive lines, each connecting a network of fortifications, which provide support to each other.

The northernmost line is about 70 km long and faces this entire border segment, including the two main border crossings.

The second line is slightly shorter and runs in parallel, about 50 km south, from the Seversky Donets River to the north of Kupianks city. In addition, the two lines are connected by a road linking their approximate midpoints.

Firstly, an attack from the north would have to face this extremely well-prepared first defensive line. The location of the rivers implies that even if they managed to break the line at some point, they would inevitably have to face the second line.

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that an attack from the northwest has the added difficulty of fighting uphill in the first stretch after the border. Therefore, this option seems particularly adverse to the Russian forces.

A second option would be to establish an additional attack vector from Dvorichna, trying to quickly reach the road linking the defensive lines in an attempt to isolate the first defensive line.

It is not an easy undertaking, but if successful, a possible continuation is to completely encircle both Kupiansk and the second line, trying to isolate them and appearing from the rear all the strong points protecting the city to finally surrender them all.

One must consider the magnitude of resources necessary for an offensive of these characteristics, which implies mechanized advances of tens of kilometers, given that the actual advances here for months have been only marginal gains of a few hundred meters.

However, the Russian command could play its card by taking advantage of delays in Western aid in artillery supplies and especially by achieving localized air superiority to undermine Ukrainian fortifications with the use of FAB glider bombs.

The main option for the Ukrainians in this second hypothesis is to reinforce the defense of the segment in front of the Dvorichna pass, up to the road linking the defensive lines, trying to make it as difficult as possible to lose control of this road.

bIn addition, they should consider alternative supply routes, both for the defensive lines and for Kupiansk from the south.

As a third hypothesis, in addition to all the above, Russian forces could attack from the north to fix the forces of the two defensive lines, focusing on encircling Kupiansk in the first instance.

This could be done in theory by increasing the combat force from the already active areas, but especially by launching an attack vector from Dvorichna and moving down from there to the south to engage only the eastern end of the second defensive line. In the event of breaking the defense at this point, going down to Kupiansk to encircle it seems feasible.

The city encirclement would automatically compromise the logistics of the entire line facing the Russians east of the Oskil River, complicating the situation for the Ukrainian forces in this area to a large extent.

The options here for the Ukrainians would be to reinforce again the entire area near the Dvorichna Pass, as well as to increase defenses and fortifications in the western and northwestern part of the city of Kupiansk, and to improve logistical supply options from the south of the town.

Overall, the recent demands of the Russian leadership for a sanitary zone, the evacuation of numerous villages in the Kharkiv region, and the fact that sooner or later, the Russians need to address the seizure of Kupiansk and the eastern bank of the Oskil River with more significant resources have raised the alarm of a potential new Russian offensive from the north in the coming months.

Given the high level of readiness of the defensive lines in this region, it is clear that this will require Russian forces to build up a huge mass of forces, based on the difficulties already encountered in recent months.

The recent announcement of the creation of two new combined Russian armies and rumors of a possible new mobilization in Russia increase speculation in this regard.

Let us hope that in the event of this new offensive, the Ukrainian forces will have received the promised Western aid to achieve the best defensive preparation level possible.

[marcusmaximus]

With the Russian war bloggers crying so loudly, I believe that it was the 4 ships.

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box, 03/26/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Is it true that we have lost another large landing ship?

To be honest, there are fewer and fewer censored words about the Black Sea Fleet. Unfortunately, the Project 775 BDK Konstantin Olshansky was damaged. Navy sources are not in the mood today.

There is not much information. In short, “Konstantin Olshansky” is damaged. Sources expressed confidence that he will be brought back to life, but it may take some time.

Unfortunately, this is not all the news from Crimea. The interlocutors, gritting their teeth, reported that two more large landing craft - Yamal and Azov - were also damaged. There were sailors killed as a result of the attacks, but their number has not been disclosed.

We admit, we did not want to publish this data. But sources in the navy asked to draw attention to our Black Sea Fleet! Otherwise, we may soon lose it completely! As, by the way, the reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” was also lost. We hope it’s temporary.

What to do with the Russian Black Sea Fleet and will it be possible to save it? There is no answer to this question yet. The navy is concerned about the impulsive approach of the high command, because previously part of the air defense systems was removed from Crimea to protect Moscow and the refinery’s capacities.

After this, a serious blow was dealt to our large landing ships. Perhaps the reason is precisely the lack of air defense, or the lack of a strategic vision for building defense.

Kremlin snuff box

[PIF]

Project 775 BDK Konstantin Olshansky