Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Putin asked several times whether he would be arrested in Mongolia.
The president asked these questions to representatives of the Federal Protective Service, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Dmitry Peskov. According to a source in the Kremlin, they all reassured Vladimir Vladimirovich – they said that he would not be arrested, despite the ICC warrant.
“Vladimir Vladimirovich is worried. But the visit to Mongolia is very important for him. Therefore, everything is prepared and should take place without any unpleasant incidents,” our interlocutor said.
He believes that “the Mongols are great”: “The Hague can apply serious sanctions against them, but they are ready to endure them for the sake of Russia. And Vladimir Vladimirovich, with his visit to Mongolia, will finally dispel all rumors about his alleged international isolation.” Another interlocutor said that “he has certain concerns about Mongolia, but he hopes that they will be in vain.”
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4597
Do not worry - go to Mongolia ;-)
Not just demilitarized and de-nazified, Russia is on track to be de-industrialized:
Why Russia’s brain drain is the biggest problem facing its economy (Business Insider)
“Russia’s biggest problem isn’t related to sanctions or its diminished energy trade. Its greatest dilemma is that it is losing its mostly highly skill workers, who are fleeing amid the third year of grinding conflict in Ukraine.
Richard Portes, an economist at the London Business School, foresees a grim future ahead for Russia as the nation continues looks locked into a war with no end in sight...
...Many of those citizens (who left) were from Russia’s youngest and most educated demographics: 86% who left Russia in 2022 were under the age of 45, and 80% of those who left had a college education, according to an analysis from the French Institute of International Relations.
Many of those who left were also among the wealthier cohorts of Russian society, and they’ve taken their cash with them. The nation lost nearly $42 billion in 2022 as Russians transferred their personal savings abroad...
...”Whatever the outcome of the war, in five years’ time, Russia will have been depleted, worn out its physical capital except in the defense sector and will have lost a huge amount of knowledge capital, human capital,” Portes told Business Insider, adding that he believed Russia’s economy could deteriorate over the next decade...
...Losing the cream of the crop
It’s difficult to replace highly educated or skilled workers, especially since the loss of those workers means there’s no one to pass knowledge down to the next generation, Portes said.
That’s why he anticipates the effects of Russia’s brain drain to be felt over the long-run, predicting the nation will soon see growth turn sluggish as its well of innovative people runs dry.
“Take someone who’s 10 or 15 years out of graduate school, who’s inventing something or designing some piece of software. You can’t replace somebody like that with a new graduate,” Portes said.
The long-lasting nature of brain drain makes the issue more serious than, say, inflation, which could be remedied by central bank maneuvering. It could be difficult to boost Russia’s supply of skilled and educated workers, Portes said, especially as Russia loses men on the battlefield and continues to navigate its decade-long population decline.
Russia was short around 5 million workers in 2023, according to estimates from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, with sectors like manufacturing, construction, and transportation seeing the largest deficits.
Labor productivity in Russia also dropped more than 3% last year, according to CEIC data.
Meanwhile, patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, and patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the Russian Patent Office.
Over the next decade, Russia’s economy could devolve into one dependent mainly on its natural resources rather than on the most innovative industries, Portes speculated. That’s similar to what other economic forecasters have predicted, with some warning Russia’s economy could become de-industrialized as its resources are siphoned off by the war.
That also means a poorer quality of life for Russians, Portes said. as the quality of everything from education to medical care to public services declines.
“It will be reduced to a resource economy, a natural resource economy,” he said of Russia’s future.
Other economists have issued similarly dark warnings. At this point, Moscow’s finances are so strained, the nation probably can’t afford to either win or lose the war, according to an analysis from one European economist. Russia also looks on track to enter a severe recession by the end of the year, one UC Berkeley professor previously told Business Insider.”
If China Wants Taiwan It Should Also Take Back Land From Russia, (Taiwan’s) President Says
US News & World Report:
“If China’s claims on Taiwan are about territorial integrity then it should also take back land from Russia signed over by the last Chinese dynasty in the 19th century, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said in an interview with Taiwanese media...
...Lai, who China calls a “separatist”, brought up the 1858 Treaty of Aigun in which China signed over a vast tract of land in what is now Russia’s far east to the Russian empire, forming much of the present day border along the Amur River.
China’s Qing dynasty, then in terminal decline, originally refused to ratify the treaty but it was affirmed two years later in the Convention of Peking, one of what China refers to as the “unequal” treaties with foreign powers in the 19th Century...
...”If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest right?” he added.”
It will have a big impact.
Recent Russian domestic polls suggest that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has not yet degraded Russian domestic support of the war in Ukraine in the short-term following the Kursk incursion and that Russian support for the war has remained high since 2022. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center published the results of a monthly poll on August 30 and found that about 78 percent of respondents support Russian military operations in Ukraine — an increase from 75 percent in July 2024 and 77 percent in June 2024.[15] The Levada Center's polling indicates that the lowest Russian support for the war in Ukraine was in February 2022 with 68 percent of respondents supporting the war and that war support among poll respondents has not fallen below 70 percent since March 2022. The Levada Center also asked respondents in August 2024 about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and found that 91 percent of respondents are concerned about Ukrainian military operations on Russian territory. The Levada Center also reported that 57 percent of respondents do not expect a second wave of mobilization and 60 percent do not see a need for a second wave of mobilization in the coming months — both decreasing from 65 percent and 69 percent, respectively. Levada Center's polling data indicates that the Kremlin's refusal to fully transition Russian society at large to a wartime footing and the Kremlin's ongoing domestic information operations aimed at normalizing the war to Russian society have mitigated against domestic war weariness thus far and that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has not changed this mindset. The fact that Russian society in general appears to not be experiencing war fatigue likely grants the Kremlin flexibility in how it strategizes to wage a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine.[16]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2024
Manchuria:
On February 14, 2023, the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China relabelled eight cities and areas inside Russia in the region with Chinese names.The eight names are Boli for Khabarovsk, Hailanpao for Blagoveshchensk, Haishenwai (Haishenwei) for Vladivostok, Kuye for Sakhalin, Miaojie for Nikolayevsk-on-Amur, Nibuchu for Nerchinsk, Outer Khingan (Outer Xing’an) for Stanovoy Range, and Shuangchengzi for Ussuriysk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria
Russians weren’t satisfied by beheading a 14 year old girl yesterday or by the 44 victims today in Kharkiv, now they’ve just sent ballistic missiles into an orphanage in Sumy.
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1830333360276754894
The cost of such a missile starts at $10 million.
What happened to Lavrov?
The Ukrainian side has launched fakes that Sergei Lavrov allegedly died. We hasten to upset our opponents. Sergei Viktorovich is alive. According to our interlocutors in the minister's entourage, Lavrov really felt bad last week, but “there is no talk of any death.” “
He has heart problems. This is not the first time this has happened. Sergei Viktorovich has a nervous job, and you understand his age,” our source said. Lavrov, we remind you, is 74 years old. He has headed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for more than 20 years. An experienced professional in his field.
We urge you, our friends, not to fall for enemy propaganda.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4598
Mark Galeotti: In Moscow's Shadows 162: Lavrov’s (Living) Obituary
Empty rumours of Foreign Minister Lavrov’s death yesterday got me thinking about his shrinking role and status, and the twilight of the technocrats
Up to 200 drones daily by the New Year. Russians should prepare for more massive shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces
On the night of September 1, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked 16 regions of the Russian Federation with drones. Including Moscow . According to the Defense Ministry, 158 aircraft-type drones were launched. All of them “were destroyed and intercepted” (not really).
This attack was the most massive in the entire war. And it is obvious that the intensity of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is increasing. We asked our interlocutors what ordinary Russians can expect in the near future.
“They don't have missiles, so they attack with drones. It is both cheaper and easier. The attacks are compounded by the lack of air defense systems throughout our country. If drones are shot down with machine guns even in Moscow, then what can we talk about?” a high-ranking source in the Defense Ministry tells us.
According to an intelligence source, Kiev has increased its own production of long-range drones and is also actively purchasing them abroad. At the same time, both sides of the conflict are actively developing the technological aspect of this area. Both in terms of use and in terms of neutralization.
“By the end of the year, according to our calculations, the enemy can launch up to 200 drones daily. That is, we are talking about 5-6 thousand UAVs per month. A big burden for air defense systems, which we lose somewhere, and somewhere we send to our allies ,” the channel's source said.
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]
The complete transcript.
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[ Ukrainians Open New Axies of Advance in Kursk]
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Today [ Sept 2 ], there are a lot of updates from the Kursk direction.
Here, the Ukrainians gradually slowed down their offensive effort around Sudzha and Korenevo and consolidated their gains to increase offensive efforts to secure the western flank of their advance towards Glushkovo. During their offensive, despite desperate Russian resistance, Ukrainian forces swiftly destroyed Russian pontoon crossings on the Seym River, effectively trapping 3,000 Russian soldiers in an operational encirclement.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky recently announced that Ukrainian forces have captured 1,294 square kilometers of the Kursk region, including 100 settlements. In the last four days alone, Ukrainian troops have secured an additional 44 square kilometers and taken 594 Russian soldiers prisoner.
While Ukrainian forces continue their offensive in the area, the Russians are deploying 30,000 reservists to reinforce their defenses in the Kursk region. This force could threaten the Ukrainian gains across Kursk. To counter this, the Ukrainians need to capture the town of Glushkovo and the surrounding area, as it could serve as a staging ground for a Russian counterattack once their reinforcements arrive.
The current length of the frontline in the Kursk region is approximately 120 kilometers for Ukrainian forces. Advancing toward the Seym River in the Glushkovo area would extend the front by an additional 20 kilometers. However, the Seym River would provide a strong defensive advantage for the Ukrainian forces.
Securing these positions would allow the Ukrainian command to secure its western flank with fewer troops, as the river simplifies defense. Additionally, capturing the Glushkovo region would expand Ukrainian-controlled territory by over 600 square kilometers.
To pave the way for intensified offensive operations toward Glushkovo, the Ukrainian command ordered strikes on Russian pontoon bridges. As previously reported, the main traffic bridges across the Seym River were severely damaged and rendered unusable by Ukrainian JDAM strikes.
This forced the Russians to set up pontoon bridges to maintain logistical support for the 3,000 soldiers in Glushkovo. However, Ukrainian forces have established total fire control over these bridges using HIMARS and long-range artillery systems, severely hampering Russian efforts.
Combat footage released by Ukrainian Special Forces shows them hunting down and destroying a Russian truck carrying sections of a pontoon bridge en route to the Seym River. The Russians also attempted to conceal a convoy of four PPS-81 trucks transporting pontoon sections to the river, but they were detected by Ukrainian drone operators. The Ukrainian Special Forces then successfully destroyed all 4 engineering trucks with their bridge equipment on a road in the village of Budki.
The combined efforts of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS operators. successfully destroyed Russian pontoon bridges in Zvannoye and Karzyh, effectively cutting off all supplies to Russian forces in Glushkovo, located south of the Seym River.
As a result, the Russian forces in this area are now deprived of access to ammunition, equipment, and reinforcements, severely diminishing their combat capability and preventing them from replacing their losses.
This allowed the Ukrainian command to initiate the 2nd stage of offensive preparations toward Glushkovo, focusing on intense air strikes. Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29s and SU-27s deployed JDAM-guided bombs to destroy Russian fortifications along the front. Combat footage from the area shows Ukrainian forces successfully targeting and destroying Russian positions in the border town of Krasnoktyabrske.
Additional videos reveal the destruction of a Russian supply depot in Muzhitsa and a dugout near Vnezapne. In the border town of Tyotkino, Ukrainians also utilized JDAMs to eliminate Russian firing positions and ammunition caches in high-rise buildings.
Until now, Ukrainian forces have not conducted a consistent series of air strikes against Tyotkino or Krasnoktyabrske, suggesting these towns may be the new vectors of assault. The primary reason for targeting these areas is that they are far less defended than other parts of the Kursk region.
The Russian command has not anticipated assaults from these border regions, which could give Ukrainian forces the element of surprise needed to accelerate their advance.
Both Tyotkino and Krasnoktyabrske are connected to Glushkovo by well-maintained asphalt roads, facilitating the rapid movement of Ukrainian mechanized units, once the soft defenses at the border posts are bridged.
A topographic analysis reveals that Krasnoktyabrske is situated on on high ground, while Glushkovo and the surrounding areas toward the river lie in the lowland. This elevation advantage will give Ukrainian forces fire control over the area, supporting their continued advance toward the river. By advancing through Tyotkino and Krasnoktyabrske the Ukrainians could bypass the main Russian defense line, stretching from Majitu to Vesezatne.
This maneuver would place the Russian forces defending Glushkovo in a semi encirclement, leaving them with no viable option but to withdraw from the entire Glushkovo area. Opening these new assault vectors would stretch Russian forces thin, across both the border and the front making the defense of Glushkovo increasingly untenable.
Overall, the Ukrainians managed to sever the supply roads of Russian forces in Glushkovo area cut them off and inflict substantial losses with precision bombs in air strikes, while also preparing to open new vectors of assault.
This series of strikes on Russian logistics and defense will effectively weaken the Russian positions, preparing the ground for new assaults across the border. The goal is to collapse Russian defenses from Glushkovo all the way to the same river.
Yesterday I saw a post saying 8 miles this one says 10 miles, Russia is moving of course, but at great cost and even at “accelerated “ speed seems painfully slow for the 2nd greatest….curious what this will do for their logistics
Works without Telegram app
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But not for most of the combat videos which require Telegram.
It is advisable to have such apps in a separate computer.
Sobyanin discussed “life after Putin” with Mishustin
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin had a one-on-one meeting with Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin this week. Such meetings are held regularly, although not too often recently.
Sources close to Sobyanin told us that the participants in the meeting half-jokingly discussed that they were both on the list of possible “successors to Putin.” In any case, both were in the top five possible candidates.
After a few jokes about this, Mishustin and Sobyanin exchanged opinions on what the country would be like “after Putin.” We don't know the details yet, but the detail is interesting, you must admit...
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4600
This could not have been discussed a year ago
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