Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Intercepting cruise missiles and drones would be a great way to build time in the aircraft.
In this attack, 30 invaders were killed. But the most interesting thing is that one of the killed had a Mosin rifle, a rifle that has been in use since 1892.
The second army in the world 🤦♂️
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1808199740523257875
The rifle in the picture above looks like a mosin nagant sniper rifle, pictured below.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1808189225822740650
Lots of smoke.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1808191714211123357
“Badly wounded Russian soldiers, some on crutches, are being sent to fight in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers say it is because of huge losses and shortages of personnel, as well as bureaucratic mismanagement and the military’s culture of lying to superiors.”
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1808098253008744539
Wonder if they have any titanium balls just laying around 😎
(Bottom Line Up Front: Nothing is getting better in Russia. They are continuing to print 20-25% more rubles every year. Dramatic inflation is already baked in, even if they stopped tomorrow, which they can’t.)
Russia struggles to control finances as Ukraine invasion spending soars (2 July 2024)
Kyiv Independent reports:
“As the war is the Kremlin’s number one priority, all tools at its disposal have been used: increased taxation, sovereign funds, domestic borrowing, and the printing of money.
So far, tax hikes (excluding the big ones on on the oil and gas industries) and money issuance have been relatively moderate...
...Two-and-a-half years in, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult...
...According to Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, Russia’s Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiulina is trying to maintain a sound monetary policy but the war requires increasing expenses.
“Nabiulina faces a task that can’t be fulfilled,” Oreshkin told the Kyiv Independent.
Budget
As a result of the full-scale invasion, Russia’s spending on national defense rose from 3.6 trillion rubles ($51 billion) in 2021 to 6.4 trillion rubles ($75 billion) in 2023 and is expected to rise to 10.8 trillion rubles ($120 billion), or 29.4% of the budget, in 2024.
NATO countries have set a goal to spend 2 percent of the country’s GDP on defense in 2024. Russia is spending 6 percent. (Note: NATO’s collective GDP is more than 25 times that of Russia)
In contrast, social spending is expected to amount to 7.7 trillion rubles ($87 billion), or 21.1% of the Russian budget in 2024.
Due to the soaring expenditures on the military, Russia has had problems balancing its budget.
Before the invasion, Russia’s federal budget had a surplus of 524 billion rubles ($7 billion), or 0.4% of GDP, in 2021.
However, Russia’s budget deficit totaled 3.295 trillion rubles ($47 billion), or 2.1% of GDP, in 2022, and 3.24 trillion ($38 billion), or 1.9% of GDP, in 2023. The budget deficit is expected to amount to 120.1 billion rubles ($1.38 billion), or 1.1% of GDP, in 2024.
Taxes
From 2001 until 2021, Russia prided itself on having a flat income tax rate of 13%, which was a significant incentive for businesses.
In 2021, the Russian government introduced a 15% rate for income exceeding 5 million rubles ($57,000)...
...In May 2024, Russia’s Finance Ministry announced plans to impose income tax rates ranging from 15% to 22% for income exceeding 2.4 million rubles ($28,000) starting in 2025.
Meanwhile, the corporate tax will rise from 20% to 25%, and reduced rates for some businesses will be canceled.
The mineral tax for iron production will rise, while the mineral tax for fertilizer production will be doubled.
“The increase in taxes is indeed linked to spending on the war,” Andrei Movchan, a Russian-born economist based in London, told the Kyiv Independent...
“It will trigger inflation because the production of consumer goods is falling, while the state-stimulated demand for them remains the same,” Movchan, the founder of investment company Movchan’s Group, said...
...the current tax hike is moderate, but it could be a “test before a more radical tax reform.”
“If taxes are increased now, there is a risk that it may happen again,” Oreshkin said. (Note: Other significant taxes have been reported to be in development/ nearing implementation, such as a tax on childlessness, and a special War tax)
Oil and gas
Historically, the Russian budget’s main source of revenue has been oil and gas...
...Following the full-scale invasion, the Russian government’s oil and gas revenues rose by 28% in 2022, according to Russian government data, as oil prices increased, while Western sanctions on the oil and gas industry were not in force during most of the year. According to Reuters, the Russian budget’s oil and gas revenues then fell by 24% to 8.822 trillion rubles ($103 billion) in 2023 amid lower prices and Western sanctions.
However, this year, Russia’s oil and gas revenues are increasing as the Kremlin re-oriented supplies to China and India, and prices are rising again.
The Russian government’s oil and gas revenue in June is set to rise by more than 50% year-on-year to $9.4 billion, according to Reuters. The Russian government expects oil and gas revenues to rise by 21% year-on-year to 10.7 trillion rubles ($120 billion) in 2024. (Note that these reported Russian Government oil revenues include the effects of major tax hikes on the oil industry, and the cessation of former large subsidies for refineries. Also, these revenues are reported in rubles, which have lost significant value in 2022-2024)...
...Other methods
Russia has also used its National Wealth Fund to balance the budget and finance military spending...
...The State Duma, the Russian parliament’s lower house, said in 2023 that 1.3 trillion rubles ($15 billion) from the National Wealth Fund would be used to balance the budget in 2024...
...”Russia finances spending through internal borrowing and sovereign funds,” he said. “It increases the velocity of money and leads to inflation but does not lead to an increase in the money supply.”...
Russia’s increasing domestic debt also reflects growing military expenditures.
The Russian government’s domestic debt rose from 16.5 trillion rubles ($220 billion) in early 2022... to 20.99 trillion rubles ($240 billion) in March 2024.
Printing money
Another way to finance the war is for the country’s Central Bank to print additional money.
Russia’s money supply rose by 13% in 2021, but the growth rate was much higher after the full-scale invasion began – 24.4% in 2022. In 2023, it grew slower but still more than in the pre-war period – by 19.4%.
(NOTE: 20% and 25% annual growth rates in money supply are very large, and quite inflationary. That is on top of the inflationary ruble expansion of the COVID years. During COVID the US had a very unusual one year (2020) of 25% and another year (2021) of 12% growth in money supply, that induced the inflation which we saw. In the 2 1/2 years since then (from Jan 2022 to now) US money supply has contracted more than 3%, while the ruble supply kept exploding even faster than dollar supply did during COVID.)
The increase in the money supply has fueled inflation... Consumer price inflation amounted to 8.39% in 2021, 11.94% in 2022, and 7.42% in 2023.
Russian economist Igor Lipsits believes that real inflation figures are higher than the official ones. Movchan shares the same belief... (Note: No doubt that the Russians are fueling an inflation powder keg, and that official figures are deliberate lies to manage some effects of that problem (PR). That many new rubles has to stoke high inflation)
Lipsits and Oreshkin said that Russia’s Central Bank resorts to printing money more and more because of the war, fueling inflation.
“Any country succumbs to the issuance of more money and (boosting) inflation during war,” Oreshkin said...
...Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s Central Bank... wants to minimize credit expansion and the issuance of new money but the needs of the war require a more lax monetary policy, according to Oreshkin.
He said that, as a result, Nabiullina could be dismissed.
“They might fire Nabiullina and appoint someone who’ll simply print (more) money,” he added.”
(Speculation, but getting rid of Nabiullina would likely indicate a financial crisis)
⚠️ Groups of the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army were transferred in order to replenish losses.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808433277813891570
▪️4/4 Kh-59
▪️1/3 Iskander-K
▪️5/5 Shaheds
▪️1/1 Orlan-10
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1808424477757218839
https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1808361942517485766
Novorossiysk is primarily an oil export port, with a small naval harbour (red).
Too close to Crimea for safety, #Ukraine's already struck the port several times.
So let's hope Ukraine's latest fishing expedition caught something big.
https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1808401368639853056
Kremlin snuff box, 07/02/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
It became known about problems with the car that Putin gave to Kim Jong-un
The Aurus car, gifted by the Russian leader to his North Korean counterpart, broke down. The engine cooling system has failed.
As you know, Vladimir Putin presented the car as part of his recent visit to Pyongyang. A few weeks after Vladimir Vladimirovich’s departure, Kim Jong-un wanted to travel on the roads of the North Korean capital, but the engine very quickly began to heat up.
The car was sent for repairs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurus_Motors
Interesting articles:
Next Generation Air Dominance Fighter’s Future Increasingly Uncertain
The Air Force is reassessing what it wants out of a new crewed sixth-generation stealth combat jet set to cost triple the price of an F-35.
https://www.twz.com/air/next-generation-air-dominance-fighters-future-increasingly-uncertain
—
New Electronic Warfare Pod Turns Marine MQ-9 Reaper Into “A Black Hole”
The new electronic warfare and intelligence collection pod enables MQ-9 Reapers to be “mostly undetectable,” according to the Marine Corps Commandant.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/new-electronic-warfare-pod-turns-marine-mq-9-reaper-into-a-black-hole
—
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Strikes Airbase In Drone-Directed Missile Attack
While both sides confirm that an attack took place at the Mirgorod Air Base in central Ukraine, the extent of the damage is in dispute.
https://www.twz.com/land/ukraine-situation-report-russia-strikes-airbase-in-drone-directed-missile-attack
—
Russia Jumps Into Purpose-Built Drone-Hunting Drone Weapons Space
The kamikaze drone is billed as the latest Russian effort to try and counter Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles on the battlefield.
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-jumps-into-purpose-built-drone-hunting-drone-weapons-space
“This Zelensky Bugatti fake story was so poorly done.”
Darth Putin, KGB asks:
If Zelesnky is so corrupt, why can’t I just bribe him?
Good shooting. In one more way (specialty steels), Russia is totally dependent on China.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“A Ukrainian drone attack on July 1 seriously damaged the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant in Belgorod Oblast, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on July 3...
...The plant is located in the area of the Stariy Oskol city, nearly 115 km (72 miles) from the Ukraine-Russia border. It is the only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise in Russia, according to the source.
The facility is vital for the Russian military-industrial complex, the source noted...
...The source described the scale of damage from the Ukrainian attack as “serious.”
Work at the plant was suspended after Ukrainian “kamikaze” drones hit two major power substations near the villages of Neznamovo and Volokonovskoye in Belgorod Oblast.
The Metallurgicheskaya substation near the Volokonovskoye village is one of the largest power substations in Europe, the source said.
The strikes resulted in a complete blackout at the plant, shutting down all electric arc furnaces with frozen metal inside. The furnaces need to be completely cleaned and the arc elements to be replaced to restart. It could take several months, the source told the Kyiv Independent.
“Some of the plant’s employees believe that the furnaces will have to be replaced with new ones. Considering that the plant was built by German specialists using German technology, it will likely be difficult to restart the plant’s operations without their participation,” the source added.
The facility produces high-quality steel, including alloyed specialty steels (SBQ), for the automotive and mechanical engineering industries. It uses the blast-free direct reduction technology MIDREX and electric arc melting.
The plant’s products are used by GAZ, UAZ, and KamAZ, among other Russian military-industrial enterprises.
The Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant, as well as its owner, Metalloinvest company, were included in the sanctions lists of the U.S. and U.K. in April 2023 in light of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.”
I have not (yet) seen this posted on x.com.
Here's a picture:
Supposed to receive guidance from ground based radar as well as laser guidance.
The article states that the "operator is also said to be responsible for triggering the explosive warhead in the nose of the drone."
IMHO, this will cause a lot of misses.
Looking ahead...
With the possibility that Trump will become president in January, Congress must pass a new funding bill quickly when current funding expires at the end of September.
Then the Pentagon needs to ship a full years worth of arms to Ukraine between October and January. That will support Ukraine for 2025. Starting in 2026, Europe needs to fully step up and fund Ukraine with arms.
Hopefully, Europe’s artillery industry is at full strength by then. Also, hoping Scholz loses in Germany’s election in 2025. The CDU/CSU will be stronger supporters of Ukraine.
90% of races will now have head to head match ups.
“French elections: More than 220 candidates have withdrawn from the second round”
General Teplinsky where are you? We got some work to do now...
“On June 30, 2024, a missile strike targeted the command post of the Dnepr group of troops near Henichesk, occupied Kherson region. The attack involved two HIMARS MLRS missiles with cluster warheads, hitting a two-story administrative building used as a command center.
The strike resulted in 5 fatalities and 12 injuries. Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, the commander of the Dnepr group, was wounded. A special commission is investigating the incident, suspecting a mole, as the strike occurred shortly after Teplinsky’s arrival.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1808472281737310501
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