https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1807323482750873680
Russian infantry are on their own...no artillery support, no armor support, no IFVs, no Anti-tank munitions, no ISR drone support, no FPV drone support.
Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1807323482750873680
Russian infantry are on their own...no artillery support, no armor support, no IFVs, no Anti-tank munitions, no ISR drone support, no FPV drone support.
Additionally, a fire broke out in Nizhny Novgorod at a waste disposal production site, affecting an area of 500 square meters.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1807309745780298091
As many have said Russia is a big country and a big country at war need lots of AD
Imagine this was not foreseen by the master strategist in feb 22
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1807394321223606565
Classified?
Explosions in Schelkino, Crimea.
“Explosions in Schelkino, Crimea”
Looks like a great place to position Air Defense and/or Sea monitoring sensors (for the Sea of Azov). Close to Kerch, along the Azov Coast.
“Take away or severely reduce the ability of Russia to launch glide bombs would have serious consequences to Russian MOD plans” (with more PATRIOTs)
President Zelensky reports that Russia used over 800 glide bombs, in just the last week.
Glide bombs are currently one of Russia’s most effective means of attack, that sorely requires an effective counter.
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]
The complete transcript.
—
[ Ukrainian Forces Close in on Hlyboke with Mechanized Assault! ]
—
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Kharkiv direction.
Here, Ukrainians have consistently seized the initiative in all directions in the region, inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces not only in the city of Vovchansk but also through counterattacks north of Lyptsi. Following their successful recapture of lost positions southwest of Hlyboke, they began amassing additional forces around Lyptsi for the next steps in their plan to push the enemy back across the international border.
Firstly, the Ukrainian commanders initiated the deployment of fresh reinforcements, a move confirmed by frontline Ukrainian soldiers who reported that approximately two brigades had been assembled around Lyptsi in anticipation of future assault operations.
Russian soldiers confirmed these statements, sharing with their military bloggers that they had noticed a buildup of equipment near the frontline and the reinforcement of second-echelon reserves over several days.
Russian commanders provided further details, warning of a high concentration of Ukrainian strike battalion tactical groups along the entire front line. This buildup suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a major counteroffensive in the coming days, supported by long-range artillery and Western multiple rocket launch systems.
They also highlighted the recent arrival of new shipments of ATACMS missiles from Poland, totaling over 75 missiles, with at least half of them equipped with cluster warheads.
Secondly, the Ukrainians persisted with their audacious raids against Russian positions in and around Hlyboke, aiming to realign the frontline, push the Russians back to the southeast of the village, and simultaneously initiate storming operations.
Leveraging the strength and quality of their forces in the region, the Ukrainians succeeded, with intense fighting erupting soon within the village itself.
In response to these developments and the mounting signs of an imminent large-scale Ukrainian offensive, the Russian high command decided to intervene preemptively, attempting to disrupt the Ukrainian buildup before all forces could be fully assembled.
The initial Russian response was to escalate the use of loitering munitions systems, such as the Lancet drone, to target Ukrainian heavy equipment, which is crucial for any successful operations in the area due to the expansive open fields that favor mechanized offensives.
A geolocated video released by Russian drone operators vividly illustrates the extent of Ukrainian penetration into Russian positions.
The footage captures a Ukrainian Stryker armored fighting vehicle concealed in a tree line at the western entrance of Hlyboke, attempting a surprise flank attack to destabilize Russian defenses. The Lancet drone is shown successfully targeting the Stryker and setting it ablaze.
These Ukrainian assaults from the west of Hlyboke were aimed at distracting the Russians from the main push towards the village which came from the east as can be seen on this geolocated video shared by drone operators of the Ukrainian brigade Khartiia. The footage shows at least two Ukrainian armored vehicles maneuvering into position to storm a Russian holdout in a tree line.
As they arrive, a Ukrainian BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle opens fire with its main gun to suppress the Russian defenders, allowing the assault group to dismount from an M113 armored personnel carrier. The BMP-1 then begins to slowly advance to the other flank, continuing its suppressive fire to support the ground troops.
Subsequently, another M113 arrives, delivering additional soldiers and evacuating the wounded. Notably, the Western-made vehicle is equipped with a cage to protect against FPV drones. This proves invaluable moments later when an enemy drone detonates, unable to penetrate the M113’s defenses, ensuring the successful delivery of reinforcements to the battlefield.
Complete uncensored footage of this Ukrainian counterattack can be found on our Telegram channel via the link in the description.
As a result of several coordinated operations, the Ukrainians successfully pushed the Russians back, leading to confirmed reports from soldiers on both sides that the fighting has now moved into the village of Hlyboke.
The exhausted and heavily depleted Russian forces, facing imminent rotations, began mining the approaches to their positions in a bid to slow the Ukrainian advance. Additionally, they felt compelled to deploy a new weapon in their arsenal in a desperate attempt to halt the Ukrainian momentum. Soon, Russian military bloggers shared footage of the initial use of 3,000-kilogram FAB bombs against the village of Lyptsi.
Ukrainian military analysts commented that the Russians are likely to increase the deployment of this devastating weapon, following a pattern similar to their use of smaller versions, such as the FAB 250, 500, and 1500 bombs, escalating from 1 or 2 per day to around 5 per day.
Despite the bomb’s inaccuracy - evident in geolocated footage where one such bomb misses its target by about 250 meters - the FAB 3,000 remains a formidable threat due to its payload of approximately 1,200 kilograms of explosives, causing significant destruction wherever it lands, as seen in the aftermath of another detonation in Lyptsi.
Overall, by seizing the initiative, executing well-coordinated counterattacks, and integrating advanced Western military technology, Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russian troops and forced them into a defensive posture. The sophisticated use of multi-pronged assaults and innovative tactics, such as exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian defenses, has disrupted Russian supply lines and command structures.
This sustained pressure has compelled Russian forces to react hastily, often ineffectively, showcasing a reactive rather than proactive strategy. These actions reflect Ukraine’s growing capability to dictate the terms of engagement and reclaim occupied territories, signaling a turning point in the conflict.
Russian forces have been beating their heads against the wall of Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized for more than 2 years (!!!)
Again and again, the outskirts of that small town (or of what once used to be a town) end up being a giant graveyard of Russian columns.
Unbelievable fields of death for nothing.
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1807732204803424747
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1807476853218701612
Ukrainian airstrikes
Video shows the AASAM 'Hammer' guided bombs are lofted from low altitude using a 60 degree climb angle.
Closing in on 3200.
Russia - 16673, of which: destroyed: 12056, damaged: 754, abandoned: 947, captured: 2916
Tanks (3180, of which destroyed: 2152, damaged: 158, abandoned: 352, captured: 518)
Attacks against US bases in Germany must be met with strikes against the RuZZian homeland.
“Germany recently arrested Russians who were scouting US military bases for sabotage attacks”
https://x.com/alexzfinley/status/1807523585361330200
Grandma should have stayed in RuZZia
“First 🇷🇺 Russian woman convict captured by Ukrainians”
https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1807410033816186940
And we know this number how?
Because muscovites say so?
It may be true, but without any kind of confirmation(and there really can’t be) then this means nothing
But then there is the captured grandma, is she part of the 30000
Kyiv Independent discusses Russian Tank losses today (1 July 2024):
(Summary: Ukrainian MoD estimates of 8,000 Russian tank losses likely includes IFVs, as well as Main Battle Tanks. British Intelligence estimate for tank losses is close to Oryx, around 3,000.
Russia had 3,300 tanks on operational status at the start of the war (2022), and French OSINT estimated a maximum of 7,000 salvageable tanks in storage (others have estimated 6,000, or even less, out of as many as 20,000 hulls).
The UK RUSI estimates that Russia supplies the Front about 1,500 tanks per year, roughly 1,200 of them refurbished from storage. The quality of the Russian tanks on the battlefield is clearly degrading significantly, with most of the modern tanks already gone. Some estimates expect Russian tank supply to culminate in 2026, but at these rates, there is the potential for a few more years (2028-29) of declining quality, although I expect other problems to constrain that (like component shortages, personnel and finance issues, as well as sabotage and drone attacks).
From the Article:
“Russian losses in Ukraine recently passed another milestone, with the total number of “tanks” claimed destroyed by Kyiv passing the 8,000 mark.
As of July 1, the figure stands at 8,099, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
At the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia was estimated to have around 3,300 operational tanks, suggesting that all those that initially drove into Ukraine and then some, have been taken out over the course of two-and-a-half years.
It’s impossible to know for certain exactly how many tanks Russia has lost during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, so any figures need to be treated as estimates.
Further complicating matters is what exactly Ukraine’s General Staff counts as a “tank,” with Ukraine’s official count being plausible, yet most likely misleading.
“The daily figures from Kyiv just say tanks but because it has a separate section for armored personnel vehicles, so it’s my interpretation that they group main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles,” Sascha Bruchmann, visiting research fellow for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told the Kyiv Independent.
Opinion: How many tanks does Russia have left?
How accurate are the Ukrainian figures?
According to Bruchmann, the Ukrainian figures likely combine both main battle tanks (MBTs) and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
Broadly speaking, the main battle tank is the classic tracked vehicle with a large, turret-mounted cannon. Modern Russian examples include the T-90 and its much-vaunted but yet-to-be-tested T-14 Armata.
An IFV is used to carry infantry into battle and provide direct-fire support and can resemble a tank, but usually with a smaller cannon. Modern Russian examples include the BMP-3.
While the Ukrainian figures do not appear to distinguish between the two, other sources do.
An assessment for British Defense Intelligence earlier this year said Russia had likely lost 2,600 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion, and 4,900 IFVs, a total of 7,500.
Figures from the open-source investigative project Oryx put the number of tanks damaged or destroyed at 3,180.
As Oryx only publishes visually confirmed data taken from open sources, the real numbers of Russian losses are likely significantly higher.
“If you look at the British figures, they’re getting close to what Ukraine is saying, and then with the visual confirmations from OSINT trackers like Oryx, I think the 8,000 figure is realistic,” Bruchmann says.
“I think it’s reasonable to conclude the 8,000 figure includes around 3,000 MBTs.”
Even Russia’s most advanced and capable tanks have taken a hammering on the battlefield.
In January, a T-90M – which Russian President Vladimir Putin once described as “the best tank in the world” – was destroyed by two U.S.-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, in service since the early 1980s.
How many tanks does Russia have left?
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion, Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks, according to the Military Balance 2021 database.
The database included all tank types then employed by Russia’s military, notably T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s, and their modifications.
Clearly, the most recent figures of Russian tanks destroyed would mean almost the entire tank fleet employed by the Kremlin at the start of the full-scale invasion had been destroyed.
But Russia had thousands of tanks in storage which it has been forced to use as the war dragged on far beyond what the Kremlin initially envisaged.
A September 2023 report by the Institut Action Résilience using OSINT data calculated Russia has an estimated maximum of 7,000 tanks in storage.
Can Russia replace lost tanks?
Russia does have the capacity to replace the tanks it had lost since February 2022, though there’s a massive caveat.
While Russia can maintain the quantity of tanks at the front, the quality is diminishing all the time, experts say.
Retired military officer and defense expert Viktor Kevliuk told the Kyiv Independent, “figure (of destroyed tanks) means that the enemy has lost almost all of the modern tanks that it had at the beginning of the invasion.”
“The capabilities of Russian industry to produce modern tanks are extremely limited, with 100-200 tanks per year,” he adds.
“The bulk of the tanks supplied to the front are restored machines from the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.”
“The number (of lost tanks) is significant,” Bruchmann told the Kyiv Independent.
“Your tanks are still the spearhead of your armored forces and if you run out of tanks, you lose a lot of combat power and mobility.”
“If you run out of tanks, someone else has to bring that firepower onto the battlefield; someone has to pick up that slack,” Bruchmann adds.
Bruchmann points to Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive in 2022 as an example of what tanks can achieve.
Kyiv’s forces swept through Russian defenses, liberating 12,000 square kilometers of territory in under a month.
“That was a fist-full of tanks that caused that entire unraveling,” Bruchmann says. “Without tanks, you don’t have this same offensive capability and you need to adapt for that.”
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) writes that Russia is “delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year” but adds that “approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernized from Russian war stocks.”
“A T-64, even if it’s modernized, does not do the same thing as a T-90,” Bruchmann says, adding that the “trajectory” of Russian losses means the situation for the Kremlin will only get worse as Ukraine destroys more and more newer tanks.
What does it mean for the war in Ukraine?
There is much debate over whether or not Russia is running out of tanks and what this means for the war in Ukraine, with some estimates suggesting that by 2026, the Kremlin won’t have the means to replenish front-line positions.
But Bruchmann warns against thinking simply in terms of a trajectory of every decreasing numbers.
“War is dynamic, so just putting a current number in a trajectory won’t give us the right story,” he says.
“It’s tough to then write ‘yeah, in two years Russia will lose the war because they ran out of tanks,’ because that’s not how it’s going to happen.”
Tanks are at their most useful in an offensive capacity, and as Ukraine demonstrated last year, its Western allies have yet to give Kyiv enough to launch a successful counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces.
Although Russia is currently on the offensive, its advances are grindingly slow and will only get slower as the number of tanks it has available decreases.
All of this plays into an increasingly attritional war, which, unable to liberate more land, does not bode well for Ukraine.
“It will inhibit Russia’s ability to take more territory or make it more costly,” Bruchmann says.
“But if the Russians have proved anything, it’s that they’re willing to take costs.”
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