Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Kremlin snuff box, 06/03/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Two air defense launchers were lost in the Belgorod region. The conscript probably died
Friends, we received bad news from the Belgorod region. There’s an enemy blow
2 S-400 air defense systems were seriously damaged. The strike was carried out using Western-style weapons. Preliminary - HIMARS.
According to our information, the installations were used to strike Kharkov and other populated areas in the border zone. Also, unfortunately, the radar and a lot of auxiliary equipment were lost.
Please note that we have checked the information about the incident in detail. Our interlocutors claim that after the attack on the air defense systems, one of the conscripts is listed as missing. Two officers died.
“Conscripts are involved in guarding air defense systems, this is normal practice,” we were told at the General Staff. It is likely that the missing conscript also died, but his death will not be announced publicly.
Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has repeatedly said that conscripts need to be removed from the Belgorod region. He addressed the president with a letter in which he asked to expand the NVO zone to the Belgorod region.
“Belgorod has come under attack before. And now, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received permission to hit us with Western weapons, they will come more often,” one of Gladkov’s deputies said in upset feelings.
Chasiv Yar & Kharkiv
https://x.com/NAFORaccoon/status/1797941510497087659
Mines, artillery, anti-tank missile systems, strike drones — this entire arsenal dismantles a 🇷🇺 Russian column into molecules
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1797973598285787142
So that completely squares with my post at 2758
From the article that you linked:
“On Monday (3 June), White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “In coming weeks and months, we’ll see more things [sent to Ukraine].””
The great replacement of Russian Natural Gas continues apace. Turkey has invested in a lot of pipeline infrastructure capacity, and now other Turkic countries are starting to ship product through them.
OilPrice.com reports:
“Turkmenistan could soon begin exporting natural gas to Turkey and then Europe via the expanded Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP), Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
Turkmenistan, rich in natural gas, has been vying for an export route of its gas to Europe, after Russian pipeline flows to the EU slumped in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine...
...In March this year, Turkmenistan and Turkey reached an agreement for the transportation of Turkmen natural gas through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey, and subsequently to the European market, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said.
“Our long-standing cooperation, crowned with infrastructure investments such as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines, and TANAP, has not only benefited Türkiye and Azerbaijan but has also made significant contributions to the energy security of the region and Europe.”
The TANAP project is considered to be the most important section of the Gas Corridor linking to the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). TANAP can claim to be the longest natural gas pipeline and to have the largest diameter in Turkey, the Middle East, and Europe, and was built to transport natural gas extracted in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz Region first to Turkey and then to Europe.
Earlier this year, Turkey’s Energy Minister Bayraktar said that his country was set to receive up to 2 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas (per year, abou 3% of what Russia provided Europe in 2022) “in the initial stage” under the memorandum of understanding signed in March. (much more than that will require the construction of a 300-kilometre subsea pipeline across the Caspian Sea) (Azerbaijan has promised to almost double its annual gas supplies to Europe by 2027, adding about 10 bcm more)
“Turkey is primarily interested in Turkmen gas because it has to diversify its sources of gas imports,” analysts at the Poland-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) said in March.
“For Ankara this is particularly important as the ability to procure gas from various suppliers, coupled with reducing its own gas consumption, would bring the country closer to its goal of establishing a hub for trading this resource.””
Colonel Shuvalov, 06/01/24
https://t.me/s/shouvalov
It seems that the North Military District has its first clear goal: with the help of a special operation, we must stop the constant shelling of the Belgorod and Kursk regions. The task is clear and noble, although it contains some nuances.
And before delving into the situation a little, I’ll note the only two positive results of the North Military District for now: during the special operation we did not lose a single Armata, and we now have a submarine fleet in the Black Sea. But enough about the good stuff, let’s get back to reality.
Talk about mobilization in Russia has ended, now (again) talk is about nuclear weapons. Well, I’ll just remind you: mobilization, a nuclear strike (even tactical nuclear weapons, even strategic nuclear weapons) and military actions in general cannot be a goal, but are only a tool to achieve a goal. Although, they can’t put aside “they can’t” - let’s write honestly that they shouldn’t.
Can we strike with nuclear weapons? Yes, it’s elementary! It is much more interesting to discuss what and why. Where, how, etc. - generally uninteresting technical questions, honestly. Any action must be based on feasibility, availability of alternatives, risk assessment and degree of preparedness for consequences.
Let me remind you of the old hackneyed truth that the phrases “Look how I can do it” and “Yes, it’s nonsense, look how it should be done!” - is the precursor to 70% and 29.9% of all accidents. And the fact that our military-political thought not only falls down, but no longer falls outside the framework of these phrases, is a tragedy.
Why do we want to launch a nuclear strike? To scare the West? But we have already scared everyone there, only they began to be afraid (and this is predictable) not in the style of “everyone, we surrender!”, but in the style of “we are urgently preparing for a big war.”
If someone thinks that we’ll hit a nuclear missile and everyone will run through the bushes, their heels sparkling - no, they didn’t guess right. Of course, for the sake of caution, you can go around Siberia. Well, or in general in Moscow - to frighten so much that it would be like an adult. But I ask the question again: why? What clear result do we want to achieve with this?
The Finns, by the way, have already been scared. And the Swedes too. Now they are afraid in NATO. In Ukraine we are at war with the USA and NATO, but it doesn’t seem like we are at war.
But at the same time, we demand that the United States and NATO do not allow Ukraine to attack us with Western weapons while we are fighting in Ukraine with the United States and NATO. And then we wonder why the enemy is constantly increasing the force of his attacks on us.
A separate point is the Crimean Bridge. For vysrukov - a special topic, at the level of the Holy Grail. For the military this is a common task. My personal humble vision is that the Crimean Bridge is being held at the moment the “truce” is signed.
We may even be allowed to push through some conditions that are formally favorable to us, but before the time of “truce” comes, the Crimean Bridge will be demolished. And in fact, they will disrupt the “truce,” which I put in quotation marks for a reason, but they will disrupt it beautifully, at our expense. Because this is an extremely readable move.
Further. Anyone who has studied military history remembers: a few hours and minutes before the truce, the parties release everything they can at each other. Remarque also touched on this topic beautifully and artistically (“All Quiet on the Western Front” is absolutely stunning).
But now there are more powerful and long-range weapons, and the parties to the conflict hate each other to such an extent that the “final hours before the truce” will be more destructive and terrible than anything that happened during this entire NWO. And there will be so many that not everyone will be able to “not respond and agree to a truce.”
They will force a “truce” on us only to disrupt it - at our expense, with an increase in stakes and a demonstration of control of the game.
We are now at a dead end. Objectively. Slavic meat grinder (not related to the village of Slavyansk). The use of tactical nuclear weapons will in no way help resolve the issue of a strategic breakthrough, which after this should not be to Kyiv, but to Berlin, Paris, etc. (otherwise why!?).
The enemy expects us to use nuclear weapons, and expects it meaningfully: then both China and a certain “Arab world” will definitely determine that they are not our allies.
And then among the conditions for “peace” there will definitely (I emphasize, MANDATORY) be the demand for the withdrawal of our nuclear forces from Russia. And the enemy is preparing for this.
In war you cannot think with emotions. Combat is not about shooting and driving a tank. And the army did everything it could. And she did more than she could. The question is not with us.
Interesting articles:
—
Russia Adds Anti-Drone ‘Cope Cages’ To All-Terrain Buggies, Motorcycles
In an effort to protect these small, highly-mobile vehicles from marauding drones, Russians have installed do-it-yourself armor.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russia-adds-anti-drone-cope-cages-to-all-terrain-buggies-motorcycles
—
Russia’s New TOS-3 ‘Dragon’ Thermobaric Rocket Launcher Breaks Cover
Lessons from the war in Ukraine have been incorporated in the latest Russian thermobaric rocket launcher, the TOS-3 Dragon.
https://www.twz.com/land/russias-new-tos-3-dragon-thermobaric-rocket-launcher-breaks-cover
—
Competition To Supply Ukraine With FPV Drones Gets Underway
As FPV drones rapidly redefined the battlefield, Ukraine’s appetite for them has exploded.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/competition-to-supply-ukraine-with-fpv-drones-gets-underway
—
How 50 Years Of Eagle Experience Has Shaped The Advanced F-15
Branded Content: Five decades of Eagle production has resulted in the newest F-15 incarnation, which is primed for manned-unmanned teaming.
https://www.twz.com/sponsored-content/how-50-years-of-eagle-experience-has-shaped-the-advanced-f-15
Cope cage effectiveness:
A Ukrainian drone operator from the 47th OMBr skillfully flies a FPV drone under a Russian tank’s ‘cope cage,’ utterly destroying it
https://x.com/OSINTNic/status/1792152805462970390
Noticeable differences between TOS-1A tracked/TOS-2wheeled and TOS-3 tracked:
The former 2 have a tube arrangement of 3 X 8;
The later has a tube arrangement of 3 X 5 and comes with a cope cage over the tubes. Renge likely more than TOS-2 at 9.3 miles
TOS-3 not yet fielded or in the process of being fielded.
“According to the Oryx open-source tracking group, Russia has had 25 TOS-1A systems either destroyed, damaged, or captured during the conflict so far, plus eight TZM-T reloader vehicles. The true figures are likely considerably higher. So far, there have been no recorded losses involving the TOS-2, but these have also been seen far less frequently on the battlefield.”
“Despite these systems taking heavy and dramatic losses in the fighting so far, Russia’s defense industry has adapted its latest thermobaric rocket launcher to the demands of the Ukrainian battlefield, and it may not be long before we start seeing the TOS-3 in combat.”
https://www.twz.com/land/russias-new-tos-3-dragon-thermobaric-rocket-launcher-breaks-cover
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]
The complete transcript.
—
[ Minutes Before The Attack: Ukrainians Burn Russian Equipment & Artillery ]
—
Day 832: Jun 04
Today, there is a lot of news from the Kurakhove direction.
Here, the Ukrainians successfully stopped the second wave of Russian attacks against the next village after Novomykhailivka, after not giving the enemy enough time to rest and regroup.
The Russians quickly got stuck in front of the tiniest village of the long settlement chain along the river - Paraskoviivka. It presented a formidable obstacle for them, not because of the strength and size of fortifications in it, but due to all the new tactics the Ukrainians deployed.
This settlement is crucial for the Russians, if they want to reach their operational goal of taking Kostiantynivka and open access to Vuhledar from the north.
Knowing how significant this was for the Russians, the Ukrainians decided once again to strike first, and not to let them gather large forces for the next wave of attacks. For this, the Ukrainian commanders developed a battle plan with several key steps.
The first step was to effectively cut off Russian forces from their artillery support by taking counter-battery measures. For this purpose, Ukrainians monitored the Russian rear east of Novomykhailivka, looking for enemy artillery assets.
Ukrainian drone operators from the Shadow detachment located several D-30 howitzers southeast of this village and targeted them with FPV drones. The artillery systems were successfully destroyed even though they were concealed in the three lines, with the help of additional camouflage nets to mask their presence.
Drone operators from the Adam detachment were responsible for the hunt northeast of the village. Over a short interval of time, they were able to destroy not only multiple D-30 howitzers, but also several self-propelled artillery systems, a couple in their hide-outs, and several more on the move.
The skillful drone pilots put additional pressure on that area by also targeting munition hideouts and delivery vehicles to undermine Russian artillery missions.
These attacks marked the beginning of the second step of the Ukrainian plan to undermine the Russian effort, by not allowing them to deliver fresh forces or munitions to frontline positions.
Ukrainians used the relatively flat and clear terrain around Novomykhailivka to their advantage by hunting enemy delivery vehicles with FPV drones.
If we look at the geolocated footage, we can see more than 10 such vehicles destroyed over a short period of time, ranging from big Kamaz cargo trucks to smaller UAZ vans.
After these successful initial steps to limit Russian artillery and delivery operations in the region, the Ukrainians moved to the 3rd phase in their deadly plan - to conduct a series of vicious raids on Russian forces accumulation points - both on the frontline and in the rear.
Drone operators from the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade published more than 12 geolocated video clips showing how they engage Russian soldiers in trenches, hideouts, and safe houses.
One of the videos highlights one Russian tactic that can be seen more and more often in the last weeks, namely the use of motorcycles to quickly deploy forces to the contact line, and to conduct assaults.
Previously, they used from 1 to 2 such vehicles, but in these most recent images, we can see an update of this dubious tactic with 5 or more working in a group, trying to use the speed of the motorbikes to their advantage.
The devastating outcome of the Ukrainian actions forced the Russian commanders to make a desperate attempt to launch another wave of attacks against Ukrainian positions around Paraskoviivka, with everything they still had available
The size of these Russian assault groups in this geo-located images from Paraskoviivka’s vicinity showcases exactly how effective the Ukrainian approach was.
Previously they usually consisted of several tanks, armored personnel carriers, and infantry groups of up to 20 soldiers, but the most recent footage shows a significant reduction to single tanks, BTMB vehicles, supported by infantry groups of up to 5 soldiers.
The forces engaged were not sufficient to overwhelm Ukrainians who were well prepared for such a scenario and inflicted significant damage with Javelin anti-tank guided missiles and drone dropped grenades crushing this 3rd wave of attacks against this important settlement.
In another geolocated footage from an unsuccessful Russian attempt to storm the suburb of Paraskoviivka, we repetitively see how important the help package from the United States was for the Ukrainian defenders.
Several Russian armored vehicles were greeted with an artillery barrage so powerful that it prompted them to turn back to avoid destruction.
After several tries some surviving Russian soldiers managed to hide in a large building in the village, but their activity and possible formation of a foothold were quickly stopped by a Ukrainian air strike with glide bombs that reduced the building to rubble and eliminated any option for the Russians to use it in the future.
Overall Ukrainians continue to undermine the Russian attempts to advance further west from Novomykhailivka by developing a multi-level plan that not only targeted enemy force concentrations, but deprived them of artillery support and vital deliveries.
This tactic showed immediate effect and put pressure on the Russians to make another desperate and unsuccessful push forward, but with severely reduced strength.
The battles in this direction are still ongoing. and we are yet to see how the situation will unfold. but the Ukrainians have continued exhausting Russian forces ensuring their un-sustainability of losses and the premature culmination of the offensive effort with little to no gains toward Kostiantynivka.
Lots of USA-NATO ISR flight activity over the Black Sea for the past few days. Ukraine probably waiting until after D Day observances for their next wave of strikes on Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea coast.
Looking for submarines?
Looking for submarines?
—
Looking for submarine parking spots
OT: Starship Flight 4 launch T-023 minutes
Still fueling, wind 21mph, T-19, weather and wind looking good.
Turns out it was a private video like posted on FR today and you cannot watch it - its from Flight 3 anyway.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
