Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

“Ukraine has to make a mega strike on Moscow that will make it lights out for a few days.”

Here is a link, where they discuss and analyze that strategy.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4056716-can-ukraine-black-out-russia-in-winter.html

Ryazan oil Refinery (just knocked offline) is (was) the primary supplier of Moscow for several fuels, including gasoline and aviation fuel (Moscow is the superhub of domestic Russian aviation). The pipelines between Moscow and that refinery have also been struck.

I think it likely the Moscow will have its worst Winter of the war. Big blackouts would be quite a development.

Here are additional links and information about Ukraine’s destruction of Russian oil and electric power bases.

Ukraine unleashes missiles: Power plants burning across Russia
RFU News — from Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc6A3ZDRj8M

This almost 6 minute video sets out in mapped detail how Ukraine is upscaling its attack on Russian power and especially electricity. It shows how Ukraine is developing a coordinated strike in many areas at once with interlocking damage to multiple military and industrial plants, and to residential heat and light. Eleven sites were shown and described, including one that is now out and affecting a large number of surrounding industrial activities. Longer range more powerful missiles are now carrying out the expanded Ukraine plan.

Huge Russian convoy ambushed and burned on the road to Pokrovsk
RFU News — from Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1stLURlA7D8

This five and one half minute video maps in detail the failure of a Russian column attempting to take advantage of fog to slip past Ukraine drones to enter the east side of Pokrovsk. The map then turns to showing how Russians are trying to move all the way into Pokrovsk from south to northern border. Using teams of 2 or 3 men with a hundred drones they attempt to destroy Ukraine troops. Ukraine is succeeding in destroying Russian soldiers hiding in Pokrovsk buildings using heat detection equipment and sailing drones right into these hideouts and blowing up the troops there.

In both videos, RFU explains how they have developed a Timeline Builder tool to enable a more comprehensive understanding of the planning and complexities of Ukraine’s efforts. We may see this site was bombed, that site was bombed, but we are not normally seeing how all these individual events form part of a preplanned whole. I first became aware of this intelligent complexity a few days ago when viewing a video of the major Moscow blackout. There it was explained how over months Ukraine had learned the complex connections of various parts of the Moscow area power grid. They were then able to strike the various sites in the right order to develop a cascading failure throughout the Moscow area. Later I heard that this failure had even set off cascading failures much further to the east in Russia.

“about Ukraine’s destruction of Russian oil and electric power bases... we are not normally seeing how all these individual events form part of a preplanned whole... over months Ukraine had learned the complex connections of various parts of the Moscow area power grid. They were then able to strike the various sites in the right order to develop a cascading failure”

I can’t imagine that these strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure and energy infrastructure could be proceeding WITHOUT such an overarching strategy, to achieve a Strategic effect.

NATO planners and NATO Intelligence Agencies would naturally be asked to evaluate this for Ukraine’s Military aid and budget requests. As you point out, Ukraine has already demonstrated that they approach this Campaign in such a planned manner. Far too much has come together on a coordinated timeline, for me to think it is not a sequenced Campaign Plan being executed, to achieve Strategic effects.

As such, I expect to see some significant (game-changing) effects on Russia this Winter.

In one week, we will be seeing the start of serious sub-zero temps in the West Siberian oil fields. Russian oil is seriously boxed in already.

Nowhere for Russian oil to go.

In addition to Russian refineries, petrochemical plants and export terminals getting blown offline, there is a record amount of oil backed up at sea aboard tankers.

Conditions are perfectly set.

OilPrice.com (15 Nov):

Floating Oil Storage Surge Puts Market Balance on Edge

“Crude from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela is piling up in floating storage, with Asian volumes reaching up to 70 million barrels.

Iran’s exports to China have dropped sharply, while shadow fleet storage rose by 20 million barrels in just two weeks.

Analysts warn that if these stranded barrels find buyers, oil markets could tip into deep oversupply...

... Bloomberg also cited floating storage data from OilX, Vortexa, and Kpler to report that oil from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran accounts for between 20% and 40% of the strong increase in barrels on water since August. “The fate of all that crude on water, affected by sanctions or not, will go a long way to shaping how oil prices move over the next few months,” the publication wrote, citing traders.

The warning echoes a remark made by the chief executive of Gunvor, who said earlier this month that oil in floating storage was running at record rates...

... The International Energy Agency poured some fuel on the oversupply flames on Thursday as it reported that global oil supply had swelled by 6.2 million barrels daily since January...

... Overall, the message from analysts seems to be that the oversupply is here, and it will keep pressuring prices.”

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