Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

Speedy has given us an interesting evaluation of the status of the Ukraine/Russia war by “The Economist” of 10/17/25 from the link provided. Having read almost every day’s worth of comments at this long thread for around 2 years, plus others found while using Search for Ukraine, Russia, Putin, and other related topics, I have come to certain conclusions. One is that even without strong support from our leader, Ukraine still has a decent chance of winning. Several topics are being evaluated including but not limited to:

1) What our leader is doing and trying to achieve
2) On what he is basing his choices and actions
3) The status of forces in Ukraine and Russia
4) Likely future events in Ukraine and Russia
5) Likely future events in US and NATO countries

1) I have the impression that our leader would much prefer to have a world where business can be conducted without a war, but by vigorous competition of a commercial nature. He has tried to promote hotels and other projects in Moscow, Turkey, and other countries. He has encouraged his son-in-law to engage in important activities in the Middle East. His recent suggestion that Gaza has a great seacoast for tourism and vacation development was quite a surprise. He appears to have changed his mind on Gaza, but I wonder if he is considering the potential of the Crimean coastline? The question is whether he understands that Russia’s goals are currently controlled by the idea of ongoing perpetual conquest and expansion as promoted by Alexander Dugin in his 1997 book which Putin has adopted for Russia’s war colleges. On the other hand we have actually seen a pro Russia/Putin commenter at this site proclaim repeatedly, with photo, that our leader is in fact a registered Russian agent. The final decisions by our leader are yet to play out to give us a more likely reading of his possible goals and motives.

2) People in the US and many other places have no doubt been puzzled, surprised, and angered by our leader’s pattern of jumping from opposite sides of decisions, sometimes in the matter of days. Sometimes this seems to be planned efforts at confusion, other times changes in circumstances, and new information from the latest person spoken with. Many times these switches could be part of ongoing business/negotiating strategy. Or they could be part of new information whether well understood, or misunderstood. It is very visible that his contacts with Putin are an influence. After his Alaska meeting with Putin, he backed off of sanctions talk until Putin angered him by massive harsh drone strikes against many Ukraine civilian targets. He may have mixed feelings about letting Ukraine have access to Tomahawk Missiles with the scary ability to carry either conventional explosives or nuclear ones. This is especially concerning as Russia is already using missiles on Ukraine that have this dual ability.

On the front lines there are many small bits of Ukraine land listed as controlled by Russia. However, all these maps list distances in kilimeters (km)m. For a person unlikely to be well versed in the difference between kms and miles, I suspect he may have been unduely influenced by viewing something like the ISW maps on war in Ukraine. On the front lines there are many small bits of Ukraine land listed as controlled by Russia. However, all these maps list distances in kilimeters (km). For a person unlikely to be well versed in the difference between kms and miles, it is easy to overestimate the amount of territory Russia has recently overrun. A 10 km distance is only 6 miles, a 5km square area is not 25 square miles, it is only around 6 square miles. It is enough to make someone who just hopes for peace and business activity to throw up their hands in frustration and disgust. Thus ending up saying something like, “You start a truce at current battle lines, and figure it out yourselves.”

I will continue with items 3, 4, and 5 after more thought.

I suspect this switching behavior was something he developed early as a way to defend himself from an extremely domineering father. In past writings, he has stated his opinion that his father caused his brother’s alcoholism and death. He developed more effective strategies to survive his father. i just hope these strategies will be strong enough to survive the much smoother but domineering actions of his “former” friend Putin. It seems he was initially fooled by Putin’s veneer of politeness and reasonableness.

I doubt he is even aware of Alexandr Dugins opus from 1997 on how to conquer Europe to create a Russian ruled Eurasia, and how to control most of the rest of the world even including China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

I just hope our Secretaries of State and War know about this book which Putin has assigned to all Russian war colleges and hopes to place in all high schools. There is a reason that Dugin has been called “Putin’s Brain.” It is important to note that Putin’s initial efforts to at least appear to be cooperative toward Europe and NATO was fundamentally changing by 2000, only 3 years after Dugin published his totalitarian opus as THE guide for Russia’s future.

Russia is on track for $100 Billion deficit for 2025. (Biggest this century - so far)

The financial buffers they have been relying on through this war (like the National Wealth Fund) aren’t there anymore to contribute significantly for next year, and other financial risks appear likely to hit them as well. Ruble printing presses going “Brrrr”.

Kyiv Independent (20 Oct):

“Ukraine expects Russia to face a nearly $100 billion budget deficit by next year (January 1st, 2026), President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 19, underscoring Moscow’s growing economic challenges amid the war.

The news comes as Russia grapples with empty coffers as the costs of its all-out war against Ukraine mount...

...The president said that the deficit stood at $71 billion one month ago (Russia books a lot of annual costs in December). He promised to share more detailed analytics from Ukrainian intelligence in November.

Zelensky also noted that the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S. against India could further exacerbate Russia’s economic troubles if they force New Delhi to reduce purchases of Russian oil...

...Moscow has been forced to adopt several painful measures to tackle the shortfall, including increasing the value-added tax (VAT). Some Russian companies are also reducing salaries by shortening working weeks.

While cutting subsidies to fuel distributors also remains an option, this measure has already led to shortages in some regions in 2023... With several Russian regions and occupied Crimea again facing fuel shortages this year, exacerbated by Ukrainian strikes against refineries, the Kremlin is moving in the opposite direction – by loosening restrictions on subsidies to support the suppliers.

(Ivan Us, chief consultant of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies of the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies) also said that curbing the deficit by printing more money could lead to hyperinflation, as the Russian central bank has already begun increasing the money supply and inflation levels remain high.”

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