Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Kyiv Independent reports on Macron’s interview published in the Economist today:
“French President Emmanuel Macron said he would consider sending troops to Ukraine in the case of a Russian breakthrough at the front or if Ukraine requested it, in an interview with the Economist published on May 2.
Macron added that such conditions did not currently exist.
In March, Macron called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “existential” for France and the rest of Europe. Later, Macron said he would not rule out the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine.
Macron reiterated this sentiment in his interview with the Economist, saying that Europe’s “basic condition” of security depends on its ability to avoid defining concrete red lines.
“If Russia wins in Ukraine there will be no security in Europe,” he said…
…The interview came ahead of a visit to France by Chinese President Xi Jinping in May. Macron is expected to try and convince Xi to use his influence over Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek an end to the full-scale war in Ukraine.”
160 countries to discuss Ukraine’s approach to settle the war, including the BRICS (with one major exception).
Kyiv Independent reports:
Switzerland peace summit to take place on June 15-16, Russia not invited ‘at this stage’
“ The meeting will take place in the Burgenstock resort above Lake Lucerne in central Switzerland, and 160 national delegations will be invited to the talks.
Russia, the aggressor in the ongoing war, will not be invited “at this stage” of the talks, the Swiss government said.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba justified the decision not to invite Russia in a comment for the Foreign Policy magazine, saying: “Our approach comes from reality, and from the experience that we (have) gained... Between 2014 and 2022, we had almost 200 rounds of talks with Russia in different formats, with mediators and bilaterally.”
“But nothing worked. It ended up in the large-scale invasion (of 2022),” he stressed…
… Zelensky said that the summit will serve as a dialogue platform to “achieve a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace for Ukraine in accordance with the U.N. Charter and the norms of international law.”
The founding principles of the event were developed in a series of international meetings and centered around Ukraine’s 10-point peace formula.”
Some BDA, aka, “System S300 successfully intercepted ATACAMs missile”
“Svoboda radio published satellite images showing that at least one S-300/S-400 missile launcher was damaged/destroyed after the attack “
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1785992867216769179
Afip is Afire
“Locals report that 3 explosions occurred at the Afip oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. “
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1785927411365732859
“In a year:
Russia is losing approximately 45 pieces of military equipment every day, adding 0.7 square kilometers every day.
At this rate, Russia will need 31 million tanks and armored vehicles to conquer Ukraine, 1200 years and over a hundred million dead soldiers.”
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1786046013204992088
Kyiv Independent reports:
“a Belarusian government-in-exile was formed, headed by Tsikhanouskaya. It includes her office operating in Vilnius; the National Anti-Crisis Management, headed by Pavel Latushka; the Warsaw-based BYPOL initiative of former members of the uniformed services; the Opposition Initiative, which includes the Cyber Partisans; and the Pahonia regiment fighting in Ukraine. The Coordination Council, created during the protests and featuring Nobel Prize winner Sviatlana Aleksievich, is being transformed into a substitute for parliament.
A marked change is that the government-in-exile already has its own armed branch, ready to rise up against Lukashenko at the first opportunity – including by force.
Until recently, Belarusian soldiers and government officials had no alternatives. But now they have a choice between the illegitimate government in Minsk and the legitimate one elected by a majority vote in 2020, headed by (Lukashenko’s rival in the last presidential election, from whom he stole the office) Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. That choice will be made when the opportunity arises, which could be when Russia’s humiliation in Ukraine engulfs the Kremlin in chaos.”
Ukrainska Pravda reports:
“Russian Gazprom reported a financial loss of RUB 629 billion (almost US$6.7 billion) in 2023, compared to a net profit of RUB 1.226 trillion (US$13 billion) in 2022.
Source: Gazprom’s report on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)”
“Gazprom reported a net loss of 629,1 billion rubles in 2023 vs a net profit of 1,23 trillion rubles in 2022. “
https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1786034054246109383
Great minds think alike!
RuZZia Today.
“In a flight Yakutsk-Srednekolymsk passengers are bringing home eggs.”
https://twitter.com/jaanikamerilo/status/1785884347125338259
Gazprom’s (reported) EBIDTA is still positive, so they can keep the lights on with an accomodating Government - but they have much, much less to contribute to the Government, or anything else.
This year’s battle damage could well push them over the financial operating edge.
No more Mr. Nice Guy.
European Pravda reports:
“Ukraine has received Western weapons with permission to hit Russia. An interview with Latvia’s Foreign Minister”
“Moldova eyes energy lever to topple Kremlin puppet regime in Transnistria”
“For the first time in three decades, Moldova thinks it finally has the leverage to kick Russia out of the country.
But it comes with a quandary: how to do that without unleashing a humanitarian crisis on its own citizens.
Since gaining independence in the 1990s, Moldova has been locked in a frozen conflict with Moscow over Transnistria, a Kremlin-backed separatist region near Moldova’s eastern border with over a quarter of a million people.
The face-off has been tense, but maintained by a powerful connection: Moldova gets cut-rate Russian energy via Transnistria, which gets hundreds of millions of euros a year in return. The link allowed Russia to preserve control over the strategic strip of land along the Ukrainian border, where its troops are stationed despite Moldova’s objections.
That dynamic is changing, however. Moldova in recent years has integrated with Europe under pro-EU President Maia Sandu. Brussels has offered millions of euros and more links to its energy supplies as part of a yearslong process to get the country, one of Europe’s poorest nations, ready for EU membership.
“Moldova is no longer dependent on Transnistria,” Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi told POLITICO. “When it comes to gas, we buy gas on the international market. On the electricity side, we are building high-voltage lines to connect ourselves to Romania.””
...
“Yet Russia’s ability to intervene is, in practice, limited. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, local Russian forces have been cut off from their usual supply lines, unable to bring in reinforcements or fly in hardware. Many haven’t been rotated in or out of Moldova in years, and have settled down and raised families locally. And while they sit atop one of Europe’s largest arsenals of weaponry and ammunition at the closely guarded Cobasna depot, it is widely believed to hold little else but decaying WWII-era equipment that hasn’t already been sold off or repurposed by the Russians.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-eye-energy-lever-topple-kremlin-puppet-regime-transnistria/
The AFU has started attacking the Moscow-Belgorod railway line, which is used for a lot of ammunition transport, using drones. They hit railway substations, railway sub-stations, etc. The route and entire stations were and are without electricity.
Western Europe is finally beginning to realize the gravity of an aggressive Russia taking Ukraine, and expanding to the borders of 4 additional NATO countries, all of them former Warsaw Pact members under the boot of Moscow. I'm surprised it's Macron sounding the alarm. Eastern Europe understood the threat from day one, but Germany, France and Italy dismissed their concerns.
Russia gives Transnistria its gas for FREE, and selling power generated from that gas is the largest source of income for them. Of course, they also use the free Russian gas for their own power, heat, cooking and industry. They are completely dependent on free Russian gas, and that gas is provided via Ukraine, who continues to abide by existing contracts with Russia. But those contracts end on 31 December, and Ukraine has already announced they will not renew. This is going to be a huge crisis for the Transnistria region, both economically and humanitarian. Russia, having been pushed back over the Dnipro, has little ability to intervene militarily, but they have too much to lose here to just let Transnistria fall. So I expect something, but not sure what. Possibly a coup in Moldova.
If Russia is not an option, Transnistrians have closer cultural ties to Ukraine than Moldova, and might prefer being part of Ukraine. The current border between Moldova and Transnistria, the Dniester river, is also the historical border of Ukraine, and Moldova might be happy to see them go.
“those contracts end on 31 December”
I can’t wait.
Next goal is to shut down TurkStream.
“six EU countries (Slovakia, Austria, Italy, Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia) and Moldova continued to receive Russian gas through the Ukrainian transit corridor”
“Austria imported the highest volume (about 5 bcm) in absolute terms through Ukraine over the last 12 months, accounting for nearly half of the country’s total imports over the same period. Italy also received a significant amount of Russian gas by pipeline via Ukraine (estimated at between 3 and 4 bcm), but this represented only a small (less than 5 percent) share of total imports. Slovakia (at close to 2 bcm) took approximately one-third of its imports from Russia via Ukraine. Hungary received only a fraction of its Russian-sourced gas via the Ukrainian route (through Slovakia and Austria), while the majority of its Russian imports have been rerouted through the European leg of the TurkStream pipeline via the Balkans since 2021.[9] Slovenia and Croatia received minuscule volumes of Russian gas via Ukraine in the last 12 months, and Slovenia’s imports dropped to near-zero since the expiration of Geoplin’s contract with Gazprom on January 1, 2023. Moldova received nearly all of its natural gas imports via Ukraine, which added up to around 2.2 bcm in the July 2022 to June 2023 period.”
“A sudden halt to the remaining gas flows through Ukraine to Europe would be disruptive and raise gas prices in the affected countries and beyond. However, it would not leave the majority of recipient countries without viable alternative supply routes. In each EU member state that relied on the Ukrainian transit route in the 12 months to June 2023, the available entry capacity on existing cross-border pipelines—and LNG terminals in the case of Italy and Croatia—significantly exceeds the volume of Russian gas imports through Ukraine (Figure 4).[11] This option does not guarantee supply in the event of a cutoff of Ukrainian gas transit, and capacity bottlenecks further away (or a simultaneous disruption on TurkStream,[12] for example) could hinder the smooth replacement of Russian molecules. But if enough additional gas can be mobilized—from LNG and non-Russian pipeline gas suppliers or neighboring countries with the ability to switch fuels—and transited to the affected region, then the existing import infrastructure in each at-risk country within the EU should be able to easily handle the replacement molecules.
The options for Moldova are more limited. Moldova depends heavily on Russian gas imports through Ukraine, and in the event of a complete shutdown of the Ukrainian transit corridor, the only alternative import route to supply the country would be through Romania.[13] The capacity of this entry point falls short of the country’s import requirements. Therefore, some additional backhaul flows from the EU via Ukraine would be needed to supplement the volumes arriving through Romania in order to meet all of Moldova’s demand for gas. “
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/
Another traitor. He should create an account on FR.
“The Federal Trade Commission alleges that former Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield held private conversations with OPEC officials assuring them the company would keep oil output low.”
“Sheffield was barred from serving on the Exxon board after the deal closes, which Exxon expects to happen Friday.”
“The federal regulator has decided to refer the allegations to the Justice Department for a potential criminal investigation, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.”
Had Russia not blocked the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, they wouldn’t be selling any gas to Europe at all, and the Turkstream would likely already be destroyed.
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