Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
7 birds reported lost at Yeysk in the drone attack on 5 April - 4 Su-30SM fighter jets, two transport aircraft, and one Beriev Be-200 Altair.
Report on the 5 April attack on Russia’s Yeysk Air Base (Kyiv Independent):
Russia allegedly lost seven military aircraft during Ukraine’s April 5 drone attack on the Yeysk air base in Krasnodar Krai in Russia, a source at Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent on April 7.
Ukrainian forces attacked three Russian airfields on April 5 with unidentified drones. The joint operation of military intelligence and the Armed Forces hit the Yeysk, Engels-2, and Kursk airfields.
The intelligence source said the Ukrainian drone attack damaged four Russian Sukhoi Su-30SM fighter jets, two transport aircraft, and one Beriev Be-200 Altair.
The Beriev Be-200 Altair is a jet-powered amphibious flying boat designed for fire fighting, search and rescue operations, and maritime patrol, as well as freight and passenger transportation.
The attack also destroyed the diesel power station of the airport, the source said.
The Yeysk air base is home to Russia’s Naval Aviation 859th Center for training pilots.
“The intelligence source said “
“the source said. “
Sometimes these ‘unnamed’ people have correct information?
The attrition of Russian Military stocks continues apace.
The coming fighting season could accelerate that, if the anticipated number of Ukrainian drones arrives, and especially if the American aid package for this FY is approved.
Putin is still committed to pouring his Military capacity down the drain, into the massive de-militarization meatgrinder that is the Ukraine War. Long term, there is some Strategic value in that. He needs a certain degree of hope of success, to keep that up, to get the job finished. As the disinformation Directorate of the old KGB used to be fond of saying, tell him what he wants to hear. String him along to the bitter end.
As we know from the countdown on this thread, that cannot go on forever, due to finite supply of equipment in storage. Nations with good Intelligence Services can see that coming too, and it seems to me that some are already preparing for phases after the Russian Military stocks are punched out. There is the War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague which is forming around the end of the year. A new Coalition to support de-mining in Ukraine is standing up.
As Putin nears the end of his rope for Military supply and finance, he will need even more, to have some hope to hang on to, to keep up his hectic pace of demilitarization. Let’s give him something to believe in, that victory is still within reach, to rope-that-dope along, past the point of maintaining an offensive capabilty for the next decade or two.
Covert Cabal on YouTube, which tracks Russian equipment (combat vehicles and Artillery) in storage from satellite imagery, gives them about two more years at current rates, to zero out their inventories - less for some things, three years for others.
I wonder what will end this? Apparently battlefield loses are not swaying the public at least not those in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but I wonder if all these new taxes might.
I remember from the beginning of this war that the usuals here on FR would talk of russia never running out of equipment(they are), never running out of ammunition ( well maybe the purchases from North Korea and Iran are just good will gestures) and that russia had unlimited funds, between revenue and wealth fund money would never be an issue.
The latest goal post move is initially the narrative was Putin was going in soft because he loved his little Russians….to what is the west afraid of russia can’t even take Ukraine after two years
What we do know is there are two existential threats going on here.
1st is for Ukraine and it’s continuing existence as a country , people, language, and culture. The Ukrainian’s have plenty of historical context to what will happen to them if Russia succeeds
The second is Putin and his circle. A loss in Ukraine will mean the end of them. At a minimum their power, at a maximum their lives. And here we also have historical context to see which way that will go
if the American aid package for this FY is approved.
—
It won’t be. BS crazy MT Green has Johnson by the short hairs. If he pushes ahead, she will pull the trigger on his Speakership. The Dems would side with UKR, but the like the position Johnson is in better. So not happening.
Unless there are more House GOP resignations and the balance tips to the Dems. Then there might be a chance of UKR military packages, depending on which side Biden is actually on.
Tyrants like tyrants, so Biden may side with no UKR aid.
Another factor wit hrth taxes
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Kremlin snuff box, 04/07/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
“We need to solve something with these bitches.” Kolokoltsev spoke harshly about the protesting wives of the mobilized
After the terrorist attack in Crocus, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs still fears for his position and decided to curry favor with the country’s leadership. According to Vladimir Kolokoltsev, “resolving the issue” with the protests of the mobilized wives will help him with this.
“Vladimir Alexandrovich is serious. Recently he said in a conversation about the wives of the mobilized: ‘We need to decide something with these bitches before they ruin the country.’ We’re a little confused.
“Previously, we were told not to touch them and not even to detain them. Now the mood is changing,” said a high-ranking source in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
According to him, there is no clear signal yet for tough actions against the protesting mobilized wives. But the security forces’ hands are “little by little untied.”
This, by the way, is evident from the fact that participants in demobilization protests are beginning to be detained, as happened in St. Petersburg.
It is interesting that Vladimir Putin does not know about plans to detain, and in the future disperse, the wives of the mobilized women. The President, as we wrote, will return to consider the issue of partial demobilization from the army at the end of April-May.
Kremlin snuff box, 04/07/24
Shoigu promised Putin a gift by May 9. Gerasimov was skeptical
Defense Minister Shoigu continues to try to curry favor with the President. This time, he promised Vladimir Vladimirovich [ Putin ] to achieve an important victory at the front by the beginning of May, so that on May 9 this could be presented to society as a symbolic moment.
The sources do not specify what kind of “gift”, but perhaps we are talking about the capture of some large city. Like Kupyansk or even Kharkov. However, there are clearly not enough forces and means to take Kharkov now.
But another point is important. Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov is not delighted with such promises. In a conversation with his close circle, he doubted the possibility of achieving serious results if the advance proceeded with the current ratio of losses.
The fact is that over the past few months the RF Armed Forces have really managed to put the pressure on Avdeevka and make progress in a number of directions, but this progress is not very significant on the scale of the entire North Military District.
At the same time, quite large losses were suffered in technology. The reason is that the military is trying to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the help of columns of armored vehicles, and are encountering resistance.
“We lost 23 tanks in just one direction in two weeks,” said one of the generals. He refused to specify where exactly we suffered such losses.
He emphasized that if there is no problem mobilizing people, then with equipment reserves it is becoming more and more difficult.
“Currently, reactivated and restored models of equipment are going into battle. Naturally, they are weaker than new ones,” emphasized a representative of the General Staff close to Gerasimov.
“I wonder what will end this?”
Putin must be defeated. Acquiescing to his advance will only produce an Operational pause, while he rearms.
It all depends on the will of the West to keep up support - this year, and likely next. Without a major Chinese commitment, the end of those old Soviet stockpiles will produce Russian defeat. By that point, the Russian economy will be a shell of its pre-war self.
Taxes on the Russian population are being discussed - a War tax, a tax on childlessness, and now an infrastructure tax. That indicates that Putin has squeezed as much shakedown revenue from the oil and gas industries, and the oligarchs businesses as he could, but still needs more.
In the lead up to the election, the General public was sheltered from a significant reduction in lifestyle, with subsidies and inflationary wage increases. Now they are going to have to significantly shift to being bill payers. That is a new phase in the war. Repressive measures will probably have to continue mounting to contain that discontent, as well as the mounting discontent from casualties, which seem on track to reach ludicrous speed.
The war will likely be coming home to the Russian public more kinetically this year as well, if the expected drone swarms arrive, and accelerate the economic decline.
The war will end when Russia can no longer sustain it, or is no longer willing to. A Western surrender would merely be a pause, before the war continued. It is entirely a war of choice by Putin.
Too much supply. Maybe need more LNG export facilities...
“Natural gas in Texas turns negative”
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/04/natural-gas-in-texas-turns-negative.html?
“Germany to Order Ships, Armored Vehicles Worth Up to €7 Billion”
“Germany’s ruling coalition will forge ahead this quarter with a sweeping overhaul of the nation’s armed forces with orders worth as much as €7 billion ($7.6 billion) for two navy frigates and hundreds of armored transport vehicles.
The government will exercise an option to buy two additional navy F126 frigates for about €3 billion, taking the total number to six, according to people familiar with the plans, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.”
Poland has ordered 800 top of the line cruise missiles from the USA (JASSM B2), which would give Poland the second biggest cruise missile arsenal in NATO, after the USA.
The US State Department approved the sale on March 12th.
“1/Russia’s aim now appears to be to destroy Ukraine’s energy system beyond repair not inflict blackouts like winter 22-23. They have focused their missiles on power stations outside of Kyiv. Kyiv currently being the only place with sufficient air defense
2/Ukraine has 11 thermal power plants: 3 in Kyiv and 8 outside of Kyiv. Russia targeted 7/8 thermal power plants outside between March 22-29 with barrage of missiles. The only one they didn’t target outside of Kyiv was Kurakove, on the frontline in Donetsk region.
3/While the damage is more permanent than in the winter of 22-23, it is more localised and the impact is being temporarily mitigated by a combination of large EU electricity imports, solar power stations and warm weather, said Andriy Gerus,head of parliamentary energy committee
4/ In the aftermath of the March strikes, imports from the EU reached a record 18,700MWh, the equivalent generated by two power plants, said Gerus.”
https://twitter.com/IKoshiw/status/1777206982421725263
Poland continues to lead the way in building a credible military capability in Europe. I would assume they will at least start out with the AGM-158B. The AGM-158B-2 is the brand new XR model, with 1,000 mile+ range (and possibly some other still unknown improvements).
“Too much supply. Maybe need more LNG export facilities...”
“Natural gas in Texas turns negative”
(Yes, you are right - another opportunity to pick up more Russian market share occurs toward the end of this year, and Biden may be driving that opportunity to other suppliers - like Watar, who funds the Muslim Brotherhood)
OilPrice.com reports:
Natural Gas ETFs Among The Worst Performing Equities
(By Alex Kimani - Apr 06)
“European natural gas futures were trading at €26.6/MWh on Thursday, 50% lower than the 52-week high achieved in October.
Henry Hub (American) gas was quoted at $1.82/MMBtu, good for a 30% drop in the year-to-date.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track natural gas have emerged as some of the worst performing equities in the current year.”...
...”Brent crude has topped $90 per barrel for the first time since October, as Middle East tensions threaten to boil over into a wider regional war. Oil markets are increasingly pricing increased geopolitical risk after Iran promised retaliation following this week’s Israeli strike in Syria that killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel. Whereas the majority of analysts remain cautious with their oil price targets, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that Brent will average $94 per barrel during the current quarter.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about natural gas markets. Warmer-than-expected winters for two years in a row have left gas markets awash with the commodity, taking a toll on gas prices and the equities that track them. A late cold snap has helped to extend the EU gas withdrawal season for another week; however, it’s unlikely to change the bigger picture after Europe exited the winter heating season with its highest level of natural gas inventories. According to to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the EU’s natural gas storage capacity at the end of March was 68.59 billion cubic meters (58.7% full), 4.32 bcm higher than a year ago; 21.16 bcm above the five-year average and the highest level on record at the end of any winter.”...
...”With the current inventory levels, it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Europe to run out of gas any time soon. Still, there could be some reprieve coming for gas bulls.
Four years ago, Russia and Ukraine signed a five-year pipeline transit agreement to supply natural gas to EU countries. So far, both countries have continued to honor the deal despite war still raging in Ukraine. However, the EU will have to contend with even less Russian gas after Ukraine signaled it has no intention to renew the deal when it expires at the end of the year, while the EU executive says it has “no interest” in pushing to revive the agreement. Ukraine gas amounts to 5% of total EU gas imports, by no means insignificant.
And now, the EU is warning member countries to prepare for a world where the loss of Russian gas is accompanied by a harsh winter.”
The Hill reports (8 April):
“Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a conservative think tank’s president pushed Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to approve more aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, arguing that backing Kyiv is vital to securing American freedom and values.
Pompeo, who served in the Trump administration, said in a letter with John Walters, the CEO and president of the Hudson Institute, that protecting Ukraine is connected to issues at home, making the argument as some Republicans, including Johnson, have previously insisted the U.S. must secure the border before sending more aid to Kyiv.
“None of our challenges at home will be made better by abandoning our allies at this time of great need, when they are staring down enemies of the free world,” they wrote, invoking former President Reagan’s doctrine to stand up against totalitarian forces. “The United States remains the indispensable nation. And this is a Time for Choosing. We encourage you to lead, and we will stand with you.””
Congress to reconvene tomorrow (9 April).
Its not my article.
I’m not ‘trying’ anything.
Wacko.
“Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Sunday defended an earlier statement saying Monday’s eclipse and Friday’s New York-area earthquake were signs from God telling people to repent.”
A BatS-wacko.
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