Posted on 12/09/2023 7:49:19 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
We have not talked in a while about the value of the Russian ruble, so I’d like to brief you on developments.
The ruble had a terrible year, where it lost about half its value against most currencies, despite an effort by the Russian Central Bank to intervene in the markets, buying rubles with their foreign currency reserves.
So over the Summer, they started raising their interest rates (From 7.5% in June), but that failed to stop the fall in the ruble, which fell below 100 to the US dollar (it was about 30 to the dollar, before the 2014 invasion, around a norm of 60 before the 2022 invasion).
Interest rates were hiked all the way up to 15%, where they remain now. Interest rate hikes slowed, but failed to stop the slide in the ruble.
Around 10 October, Putin instituted some harsh capital controls (in a way that the Central Bank Chief had previously argued against in public discussions, saying that the effects on the currency would be temporary, but that the economic inefficiencies would be real). These controls required exporters to deposit 80% of their foreign revenue into Russian banks, and convert 90% of that into rubles.
Those rather extreme forced purchases were effective in strengthening the rubles exchange rate - for about 40 days. They brought the exchange rate to peak around 88 to the dollar, but it has since inflected back onto a weakening trend.
When the rate got around 93, it appears that Central Bank has stepped back into the market, and re-started spending their (not unlimited) foreign currency reserves to shore up the ruble (the sawtooth pattern on the graph, where an algorithm buys every time it hits the threshold price, but the market brings it right back up to trigger again).
I am guessing that the Russian Central Bank and Russian Government will commit any resources and institute any policy, that will support the ruble, to get Putin across the finish line for the March election. After that though, they are likely to be out of ammo to keep it up for the rest of 2024.
A crash in the currency has predictable knock on effects for the economy. Among Russian Central Bankers previous public (and reported private) discussions, 150 to the dollar is seen as having dire economic impacts, and 200 as imposing an irreversible decline.
It is quite possible that Russia could see that next year (currency collapse), as well as effectively expending the last of their legally usable National Wealth Fund, and struggling with higher inflation, that risks becoming hyper-inflation.
Currency collapse, bankruptcy and hyper-inflation - the price of Putin’s greed.
Challenge to too tough for little Cutie Pie?
If oryx was even remotely accurate, the Russians would already be on the shores of the Sea of Japan. This daily post is a sad, little coven of screeching, emasculated leftists.
“the Russians would already be on the shores of the Sea of Japan.”
What do you mean by that?
I meant that if the Ukrainians were experiencing even just 1/10th of the success that Oryx and the Zeepers claim then the Ukrainians would have rolled over all of Russia to the eastern shores of Siberia on the Sea of Japan.
And they are still not on the road to Moscow with those stunning successes?
“if the Ukrainians were experiencing even just 1/10th of the success that Oryx and the Zeepers claim ”
That just has no relation to the real numbers involved.
The main theme of this thread is tracking the actual numbers.
Oryx is a low end estimate, due to its very conservative criteria. The Ukrainian MOD reports are about double the Oryx total, and we view them as likely over-reporting (high end estimates). The base case is somewhere between.
Russian assets and production capability are well known to NATO planners. They have long been Priority Intelligence Requirements for many of the world’s top Intelligence Services (for decades), and are inherently hard to hide.
Fie example, at the start of this invasion, about 3,300 Russian tanks were on Operational status (assigned to Active or Reserve Units, which also had operators assigned). About 1,200 of them went into Ukraine with the initial force (first weeks). About 3,000 of the (over 10,000) tanks in long term storage are estimated to be able to be restored to drive and shoot, albeit not to modern standards (stabilized barrels, night vision, etc.). Most of them have been parked outside since WWII.
How do you eat an elephant? One bite ate a time.
Analysts, both within Government and in the Open Source Intelligence Community, have been counting down the balance, as Russia has been losing tanks about ten times the rate it produces new ones. They are using up their inventory from storage, while maintaining their force level in Ukraine. Once the inventory is expended, then their fielded force structure will decline.
We have already seen that for cruise missiles, kinda seeing that for Attack Helicopters, and seem on track (no pun intended) to see that for tanks in 2024.
Russia has finite resources, that are known, and are numbered. NATO has long calculated and procured what was needed to destroy those in detail. In practice in Ukraine, it is proving to be cheaper and easier than planned.
Thanks for the book, I read the first and the last sentence because I don’t work for you.
I’ll tell you what, spend the same amount of energy in a reply attempting to convince me that the “Great Summer Offensive” was successful and I’ll read it for the laughs.
“And they are still not on the road to Moscow with those stunning successes?”
Let’s not forget that rebellious Russian troops captured the Russian Southern Military Command in Rostov on Don, and were on the road to Moscow last June.
Ukrainian drones have knocked the flagpole off the top of the Kremlin, routinely shut down flights out of Moscow airports, and have destroyed Russian Strategic bombers, which are normally tasked to deliver nuclear warheads against the USA.
But they are no closer to Moscow than in January.
OK, I get it. You don’t care about the actual numbers - just rooting for the Russian side, regardless of the reality.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/16/milley-ukraine-negotiate/
LMFAO
“ But they are no closer to Moscow than in January.”
And Russia, for all its hubris, is no closer to Kiev. It is further from Kherson.
Russia is poorer, and is demilitarizing its ground forces far faster than they can build new equipment.
Day 655 of Putin’s 3 day war. Many times as many Russians have been killed in action as in a decade in Afghanistan. Russia is now the most heavily sanctioned country on Earth, and Putin has an arrest warrant out for him from The Hague. Gazprom now operates at a net loss, and Europe has replaced Russian gas supply on long term contracts to other suppliers.
You are the one citing Washington Post opinion pieces, to pin your dreams on.
Dream away.
Hard numbers are accumulating in the real world.
Math will have its day.
Why yes they are. The "Great Summer Offensive" liberated .025% of the land occupied by Russia at the time it started. 40% of the citizens of the Ukraine fled the country and are pissing off the local Europeans everywhere. America is now $200 billion into the Ukraine War with nothing to show for it. Sad.
“40% of the citizens of the Ukraine fled the country”
Nonsense.
“America is now $200 billion into the Ukraine War”
Nonsense.
“nothing to show for it”
Nonsense.
Math really is not your thing. I get it. Just type out whatever comes to mind - its really about expressing your feelings.
As to "hard numbers," as with the Covid era, much depends on the sources. ORYX is the excuse for there threads but not the source, really. Most of the numbers, note the graphic above attributed to the Kiev Independent, are from Ukraine.
Last ORYX post of the Ukrainian "numbers," 19 September 2023, in Kyiv’s K-Support: South Korean Military Aid To Ukraine 60 posts in all, according to "Countries and Factions"
Last ORYZ post of Russian "numbers," 24 June 2023, in Chef's Special - Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2023 Wagner Group Mutiny 28 posts in all, according to "Countries and Factions"
The "numbers" come from somewhere, but how "hard" are they? ORYX' numbers are already months out of date. One finds the promoted X-Twitter channels are used as "daily." Among the more popular on these threads....
That account shows on the right hand side, the EU flag, the Ukrainian flag and Twitter's "blue check." More clicks.... Money.
As to "math," one only need look to our own issue and some "hard" numbers:
Debt ClockFederal Budget Deficit Grew to $2 Trillion in FY 2023 Tax Foundation, 12 October 2023
U.S. Credit Rating Changed From ‘Stable’ To ‘Negative’ As National Debt Balloons Daily Wire, 11 November 2023
"Half of all American workers now make under $41,000 per year.
"That comes to $3,400 per month.
"Given the median rent is $1,978 and used car payment is $528, that leaves precisely $894 for everything else -- food, utilities, medical insurance and premiums, clothes, car repairs, sick kids, and that once a year dinner out at McDonald's."
Of course you will publish the daily numbers that come from Russia for all of us to see, right?
I’m sure you are believing that the best Russia troops - 600,000 in number, posted by one of your co-trolls, have yet to take the field. That and 40,000 brand new world-class tanks, plus an equal number of SPGs with missile and AA defenses mixed in will appear in the coming year, right? Oh, and lets not forget the sky-darkening clouds of TUs carpet bombing those pesky Ukrainians.
The National Wealth Fund of Russia, long a stable vehicle, has been undergoing a series of rules changes since the war began in 2022.
Some of the funds were injected into the Russian stock market in 2022 to prop it up, so cashing them out might have the opposite effect, of dropping their stock market
Increasingly, what liquid assets remain are in the form of yuan (or ruble accounting entries), since January 2023 rule changes.
There is still gold being shown on the books, but the underlying physical possession is a matter of trust.
The rules that long set limits on the amount of the fund that could be applied to budget deficits, have also been loosened.
Typically, many Russian Government costs for the year are booked in December. Last January (2023), Russia made a large withdrawal from the fund to cover that.
So this and month and next will be particularly interesting for the budget and National Wealth Fund, but particularly prone to false reporting, before the election.
They aren’t trying to get to Moscow.
Their goal is liberation of their land.
In that goal, they are pursuing the right strategy.
Kill the invaders, thousands every month, month after month, year after year until the invaders go home.
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