Posted on 11/21/2023 8:01:22 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
RuZZian Boys on FR going to be disappointed AGAIN.
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“One High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and additional ammunition.
One single M142? At this point Ukraine has more M142/M270 capability than ammo. Wanna bet that this HIMARS is being sent with a software (and possibly hardware) update and some long awaited GLSDB rockets?
Off topic, it’s rumored that the next gen PrSM Increment 4 will be a ram jet powered cruise missile with over 1,000km range. The M142 is becoming like a Swiss Army Knife.
31 posted on 11/20/2023, 7:15:03 PM by ETCM (“There is no security, no safety, in the appeasement of evil.” — Ronald Reagan)”
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BINGO, WE HAVE A WINNER
“Ukraine’s About To Get Its New Reverse-Slipe Glide-Bombs: Ground-Launched Munitions That Can Strike The Far Sides Of Hills”
“The United States on Monday pledged to Ukraine a new batch of military aid. The $100-million package includes artillery shells, air-defense and anti-tank missiles and cold-weather uniforms.
It also includes exactly one High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. Exactly why the Americans would send another HIMARS when Ukraine already has 38 HIMARS plus 23 similar M270 tracked launchers—and hasn’t lost any of them—is hard to say for sure.
But one possibility is an exciting one for advocates of a free Ukraine. It could be that the Americans are providing exactly one extra HIMARS because they have modified the launcher to fire a new, long-range munition. The Ground-Launched Small-Diameter Bomb. A rare ground-launched weapon that’s as flexible as an air-launched weapon is.
The GLSDB is an air-dropped glide-bomb that U.S. defense firm Boeing and its Swedish partner Saab have modified for surface-to-surface strike. It can hit targets as far away as 90 miles—and should greatly expand the Ukrainian army’s deep-strike capability as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its third year.
The administration of U.S. president Joe Biden pledged the GLSDBs back in February, but stressed that the newly-built munitions would take months to reach the front line. In early October, Boeing executive Jim Leary said the company was “on track to deliver” the gliding munitions “in accordance with the government timeline.”
That might mean now. And if so, Russian forces across a wider swathe of Ukraine are in greater peril. Even forces hiding behind hills or buildings.”
Ukraine says its objective for the winter is to target Russia’s logistics so its soldiers are ‘hungry, cold, and have no desire to fight’
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-winter-goal-target-russia-logistics-soldiers-hungry-cold-2023-11
They hit UA tree lines and trenches perfectly in the videos I saw. The bomblets are disbursed latterly covering several hundred yards for each shell fired.
Pock marked fields are from single shells, not from cluster munitions.
Sorry combining two thoughts, and not very well
My reference to pot marked fields was my thoughts on Russian artillery usage and accuracy
I would be surprised if those fields with hundreds of craters were occupied by Ukrainian soldiers, and if they were they went with the volume vs accuracy model. How effective was this compared to artillery shells expended. Cities are a different story and their tactics are quite clear, raze everything.
Interestingly that tactic did not work so well in places like stalingrad (for Germans)
Again to cluster munitions, not denigrating effectiveness and logic of Russian cluster munitions rather theorizing that the American design was made to hit troop and equipment concentrations of massed soviet forces racing across the plains towards Germany
Seems like the idea of fighting trench warfare was not considered as much of a possibility so designs reflected that.
Would imagine if covered at all, trench warfare does not occupy much of US or NATO manuals or training
Just like minefields, doctrine is to suppress enemy fire and breach field or go around, easier said than done in Ukraine without air and artillery support and minefields that go on for kilometers
Bet there will be some syllabus changes as a result of this war, or maybe not and the powers to be will discount this as a one off.
The Russians make some effective munitions, cluster design is good, thermobaric munitions effective and terrifying, other stuff relied on the adage quantity has a quality…. Bmps, t tanks. Quantity was factored into the known deficiencies and that was understood and accepted by them, tank and bmp crews were not consulted
The ability of the Russians to sustain massive loses of equipment and manpower still amazes me. Who knows what the actual loses are, but I am pretty confident that they are greater by several factors than all the loses Russia/soviets have had since.
Is there a tipping point, would like your thoughts
Is there a tipping point, would like your thoughts
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was just thinking how good my breakfast of fried eggs and sausage was. Perhaps a beef stew tonight will tip me over?
Made 2 pecan pies, and 2 loads of pumpkin bread and a meatloaf last night
Now there is tipping
“was just thinking how good my breakfast of fried eggs and sausage was”
“Made 2 pecan pies, and 2 loads of pumpkin bread and a meatloaf “
You guys brighten up my day.
“The ability of the Russians to sustain massive loses of equipment (and manpower) still amazes me... Is there a tipping point”
They are only able to sustain this enormous rate of equipment loss because of their pre-existing inventories.
As different things run low at different rates, they will adapt to each one - slowing or modifying how they employ them, replacing those systems with other types.
So there is likely going to be a lot of individual tipping points at different times, that cumulatively will produce inflections in the the total curves for things like casualty rates or firepower.
But inevitably, the tipping points are coming as inventories are depleted. And some of those are going to be shocking capability losses (bigger tipping points), like we have not seen for the Russians on the ground so far. Some have already come, as for cruise missiles, Attack Helicopters, Close Air Support Jets, and even to some extent, Artillery. They are all past peak on the Ukrainian battlefield.
There are likely going to be bigger adjustments for the Russians (if all else remains equal, like continued large American support). They lose ten tanks for every one they produce. When their tank inventory empties out (2024 at these rates), that is going to be a kind of “Come to Jesus” moment for them culturally, as their self image is themselves as tankers (Death before dismount!). Their already past peak capabilities will wither further.
Beyond the tipping points, there is the greater prospect of a breaking point. Dictatorial States tend to be brittle when they come to the limit that people will continue to take.
I can’t predict that, but those depleting inventories are a mathematical certainty, if things continue as they have.
Light snow flurries across the front today, temps drop to the teens tonight.
Soon the mud will freeze.
Darth Putin (KGB)
Day 637 of my 3 day war.
Can you believe it’s been 10 years since EU/NATO staged euromaidan? They did this by deliberately doing 2 things.
1. By being seen by Ukraine as a better option than Russia is.
2. By actually being a better option than Russia is.
Drones mass on both sides, ATACMS and GLSDBs are likely to push bases away from the front, and attrition continues to bite some particular systems (and their crews and support systems). Then come the F-16s.
What changes do you anticipate?
NAFO unveils new F-42 Bio-Pigeon Fighter/Bomber:
Russian Satanic Cannibal Pardoned and Released After Fighting in Ukraine
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24506
“The Russian media website 76.ru broke the news on Tuesday that the self-confessed member of a Satanic sect, who had been sentenced in 2010 to 20 years in prison for murder, cannibalism and the violation of dead bodies, had been freed after completing six months of military service fighting in Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
The Russian website goes into excruciating detail about the crimes committed against four teenagers in 2008. Nikolai Ogolobyak, from the Yaroslavl region of Russia, was found guilty of the murders along with seven underage accomplices, one of whom was declared insane during the trial. The killings were carried out as part of so-called initiation rituals for the cult.
The 76.ru report details how the sect started by torturing and killing cats and dogs before resorting to murder. Four teenagers, Anna Gorokhova, Olga Pukhova, Andrei Sorokin and Varvara Kuzmina were killed in two separate attacks on consecutive nights in June 2008.
Ogolobyak was released earlier this month.”
The first change I expect is the shoot down rate for cruise missiles and drones should go to 100%.
The second change I expect is a dramatic increase in JDAM-ER use.
The third change is an increase in SEAD missions which will then allow an increase in CAS missions.
And finally, I hope that the F-16s will be able to shoot down the ruzzian CAS aircraft.
Kyiv post reports (HIMARS strike):
“the pro-Russia VDV Za Chesnost and Spravedlivost blog wrote:
“On Nov. 19, some infernal (expletive) idiot decided to arrange an award ceremony for 810th Marine Infantry to mark the holiday Day of Missile Troops and Artillery, and for the occasion organized a concert for the attendees. Near Starobeshevo (a Russia-occupied city well within the range of Ukrainian precision-guided rockets), bi**h, a festive concert!!! Our boys all were gathered in the club in the evening. (And) of course, the (expletive for Ukrainians) hit the place. As a result, it is reported about 25 people died and about a hundred were wounded...
Many Ukrainian news platforms and military bloggers called the Kumacheve strike revenge for a Nov. 3 Russian missile attack against elements of Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Infantry Brigade that killed at least 19 soldiers and officers gathered for an awards ceremony in the Zaporizhzhia region...
Russia’s Sevastopol-based 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in February 2022 landed on Ukraine’s southern Azov Sea coast near the town of Urzuf as part of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine from the south. The formation has been almost constantly deployed to the fighting lines in the southern and eastern sectors of the front since then, and by some accounts has seen its entire paper strength of 1,500 men replaced thrice to fill losses in the ranks.”
Good take, as the saying goes everything moves slow till it doesn’t
I am sure there are plenty around Putin who would like to take his place, if you wish to be king make sure you kill the king.
I agree that Russia is a very brittle place, the regions to the east (everyone but White Russians) know they have been abused and neglected
While Putin gets his latest mega yacht, many still do not have indoor plumbing and their sons die for the emperor at rates many times of those in at Petersburg and Moscow
The “federation” much like the old Soviet Union was held together through strength, intimidation, force when needed, and general violence
The SMO, has vastly depleted the forces in those regions to enforce loyalty
When it cracks, it will shatter
Lord knows what will happen then
Progress on the security guarantee pledges made after the July NATO Summit in Vilnius
Kyiv Post reports:
“The European Union has presented a comprehensive framework for member states to provide Ukraine with long-lasting security commitments, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, Nov. 21 after learning about the document.
The proposal will be discussed by EU ambassadors this week and set for consideration by leaders next month, emphasizing longer-term military support, training for Ukrainian forces, and assistance in bolstering the nation’s defense industry.
The project would be based on the following principles:
“predictable, effective, sustainable and long-term” military support for Ukraine, mobilizing the EU defense industry;
strengthening Ukraine’s fight against cyberattacks and hybrid threats, as well as disinformation;
support in the demining of territories;
assistance in carrying out the reforms necessary for joining the European Union;
assistance to Ukraine in controlling weapons and countering their illegal trafficking;
ensuring nuclear safety;
exchange of intelligence data and satellite images.
The draft paper will also form the basis of consultations with Kyiv and the Group of Seven (G7) nations.”
“When it cracks, it will shatter”
That is what happened to Russian forces in WWI. Also the North Korean/Chinese forces in the Korean War. At some point the troops have had enough, and turn around and shoot the Political Commissars that were driving them forward.
1. By being seen by Ukraine as a better option than Russia is.
2. By actually being a better option than Russia is.
But EU/NATO sent several politicians to Ukraine! They sent support in the form of:
soldiers
weapons
words!
All Russia did was:
Convince Viktor Yanukovych to betray his country and his promise to move Ukraine away from Russia and closer to the EU (if only Americans had the balls to hold their politicians accountable when they betray us).
Invade Crimea, seize Ukrainian assets both military and civilian, annex Crimea and install a Russian government.
Foment an uprising in Donetsk and Luhansk, led by FSB Colonel Girkin with Russian equipment and troops, leading to a civil war that claimed over 15,000 lives (total military civilian on both sides).
Viktor Yanukovych to betray his country
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He didn’t really since he was Russian in the first place.
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