Posted on 06/01/2023 7:10:48 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4157252/posts
“Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines”
“Despite warnings that arming Ukraine will start a world war, President Biden continues to push the Russian leader’s limits — a strategy that brings risk and reward”
“President Biden’s decision last month to help Ukraine obtain F-16 fighter jets marked another crossing of a Russian red line that Vladimir Putin has said would transform the war and draw Washington and Moscow into direct conflict.”
“Despite the Russian leader’s apocalyptic warnings, the United States has gradually agreed to expand Ukraine’s arsenal with Javelin and Stinger missiles, HIMARS rocket launchers, advanced missile defense systems, drones, helicopters, M1 Abrams tanks and, soon, fourth-generation fighter jets.
A key reason for brushing aside Putin’s threats, U.S. officials say, is a dynamic that has held since the opening days of the war: Russia’s president has not followed through on promises to punish the West for providing weapons to Ukraine. His bluffing has given U.S. and European leaders some confidence they can continue doing so without severe consequences — but to what extent remains one of the conflict’s most dangerous uncertainties.”
“A Russian 2A65 Msta-B 152mm towed howitzer was destroyed by the Ukrainian Army as a result of counter-battery fire in the vicinity of Bakhmut, #Donetsk Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1663990821752913920
“Really wonder if “Munitions for Unmanned Aerial Systems” in the latest aid package are the Mk118 sub munitions that Ukraine wanted to harvest from U.S. Mk20 Rockeye cluster bombs. We wrote in depth about this possibility back in March:”
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1664003063382962176
“Ukraine Wants U.S. Cluster Bombs But Not For What You Think
Ukraine is asking the U.S. for Mk 20 Rockeye cluster bombs to dissect and use its submunitions for a unique purpose.”
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-wants-u-s-cluster-bombs-but-not-for-what-you-think
“A Russian 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm self-propelled mortar and supply truck were destroyed by Ukrainian/Pro-Ukrainian Russian forces in the vicinity of Shebekino, #Belgorod Oblast, #Russia.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1664197026958000128
“The Ukrainian Air Assault Forces destroyed a Russian MT-LB armoured vehicle with ZU-23-2 autocannon using an F-1 grenade dropped from a commercial drone.“
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1664266607089311745
“A Russian T-80BV tank was destroyed by the Ukrainian army after running over anti-tank mines, South-East of Avdiivka, #Donetsk Oblast. Just behind, a second T-80BV which also ran over anti-tank mines can be seen damaged and abandoned.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1664233518271012864
“The Ukrainian Air Force says it shot down all 7 Iskander-M (9M723) ballistic missiles and 3 Iskander-K (9M728) cruise missiles over night launched from Bryansk Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1664146545304903681
“Russian UAZ-452 and GAZ-3302 Gazelle were destroyed by FPV kamikaze drones.”
https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1664130464309813248
“The Russian regime authorities are gradually losing control of the situation around Shebekino, Belgorod/Bilhorod Oblast, Russia. The main administrative building in the Lenin Street is burning.”
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1664201022003204096
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 31, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
——> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
——> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
——> The True State of Russian Army, The 2nd Best Army in Ukraine <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
——> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
——> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
——> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
——> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
[ Vacation Over | Ukrainians Demobilize 150 Russians | They Hid on a Kids Camp Resort ]
••Day 462: May 31
Today a lot of news once again comes from the Russian Federation.
The day started with a successful drone strike on the Russian oil refinery plant in the Krasnodar region.
This is one of the biggest oil refinery plants in Russia that processes more than 6 million metric tons of oil every year.
Russian sources reported that the drone happened to hit precisely the oil distillation facility, which is the most important facility in the entire plant.
The explosion caused a massive and intense fire that the firefighters struggled to put out the whole night. Simultaneously, the second swarm of drones attacked another oil refinery plant slightly to the west.
Russian sources reported that 1 Ukrainian drone managed to pass through the air defense, but failed to detonate due to malfunction.
Fortunately, Ukrainians conducted another strike 3 days ago, in which one drone successfully damaged one of the oil distillation facilities.
There were already more than 10 strikes on the oil-related facilities only in the Krasnodar region, and even though half of the time Russian manage to protect their facilities, today, Ukrainians successfully destroyed the 5th facility in the region.
However, this is only the beginning. Today Ukrainians released the results of yet another Storm Shadow missile strike that took place several days ago.
This time Ukrainians struck a base in Yurkivka, which is located between Berdyansk and Mariupol.
Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces created a base on the former kids camp resort and that a Ukrainian strike on a Russian concentration area killed 100 Russian personnel and wounded at least 40 others.
At the same time, a lot of local residents were also reporting about hearing explosions in Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol and posted footage of air defense rocket contrails.
The Ukrainian city council of Berdyansk reported that there were at least 5 Storm Shadow missiles that directly hit Russian objects.
In Melitopol, explosions were recorded near the airfield, and shortly after that local residents posted confirmation that the explosions caused a fire on the Russian base.
Ukrainians also continue destroying Russian forces with HIMARS strikes. Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian forces targeted Mykhailivka for two days in a row: on May 29 and 30.
Zaporizhia region occupation official Vladimir Rogov confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Mykhailivka. He also stated that Ukrainian forces are striking roads and bridges, in particular, those connecting Vasylivka and Dniprorudne.
Lastly, HIMARS strikes were also recorded in the east. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike on Almazna in the Luhansk region.
Local residents of the Donetsk region also reported that there were strikes on the Russian bases on the outskirts of Horlivka. The footage seems to confirm these claims as huge plumes of smoke were seen above the city.
Russian forces continue redeploying their forces across Ukraine, further giving more and more opportunities for the Ukrainians to destroy areas of forces concentrations.
Right now, Russians are redeploying Motorized Rifle and Airborne units from the Svatove direction to the northern Bakhmut’s flank, and the DPR forces from Avdiivka and Vuhledar to the southern Bakhmut’s flank, including the city.
In the meantime, Wagner forces are moving to the bases in the vicinity of Luhansk. Today the Head of the Chechen Republic announced that Akhmat forces are redeploying to Donbas as well.
The increasing presence of Chechen forces is noticed around Bilohorivka, Marinka, and Kherson.
Overall, Ukrainians continue degrading Russian forces, taking advantage of the ongoing changes in the composition of troops behind the front.
It is also important to note that the targets of the strikes are gradually becoming objects closer to the contact line, and the fact that Russians started complaining about the destruction of critical logistics infrastructure, such as bridges in the Zaporizhia region, mirrors what we saw ahead of the Kherson counteroffensive operation and signals that that we are getting closer to the next one.
••The Spring Counterattack is now the Summer Counterattack. This delay has allowed the Russian to build up their forces along the front.
==
Bakhmut:
UA forces are trying to take the portion of M-03 on the northern flank, east of Orkhovo-Vasylivka, by assaulting from the north and south. The aim is to take the heights back, but Russia is sending more and more reinforcement to keep the heights.
The small counter offensive here slowed, perhaps in order to allow the PMC to leave the city and have their positions replaced by the incompetant RGF and Chechens,
Lots of UA forces have accumulated outside of the city.
==
Despite the mobilization and use of convicts, Russia still does not have enough men and resources for this scale of war across a 1,200km front. Point of fact: they still, after months of trying, could not take one small insignificant city.
So 2nd army in Ukraine.
==
Avdiivka:
The UA had several modest gains, despite constant Russian attacks over the last moth or so.
Strategically, Avdiivka and Marinka are more important than Bakhmut with their highway and railroad hubs, yet it was Bakhmut were they expended enormous amounts of men and resources.
==
Northeast:
Russia is once again using Svatove as its regional supply hub, getting its supplies from Staroblisk coming directly from Russia. All supplies move by rail, and without that rail transport, the Orcs lose their mobility.
==
Kharkiv:
Orcs took the tiny village of Masyutivka by moving through the forest. The local geography make the defense of that area very difficult.
==
Prigozhin announced that for success in this war, Russia needs at least 2,000,000 more troops.
==
The majority of the Russian people follow a leader, Putin, who is destroying their own country.
==
The Russian ballistic missile targeting the Ukraine Intelligence building landed in the Dnipro river near by. And Budinov does not have his office in that building.
==
Denys said he thinks all the attacks on Kiev were designed to keep the Patriot system there. That way, Russia will have air cover over any UA attack; the UA which lacks the Western jets to keep the Russian Air Force at bay.
The UA can move Patriot systems to cover the offensive, but expose Kiev. Or they can keep the system in Kiev, allowing the Russians to use its Air Force against the offensive.
==
The name of the drones, used in the attack on Moscow, are Ukrainian-made Beavers which have over 700km range. Most of the drones were shot down by the Pantsir-SM systems - which are only effective in Moscow for some reason.
==
Russia blew up the closed border road between Ukraine an Belarus, called The Three Sisters, for some strange reason - but only part of it - stranger still.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
••Pillars supporting the Kersh bridge are perported to show major longitudinal cracks and could collapse at any time.
==
The Russian Shebekino. Russia started the evacuation from the town. Russian volunteer corps is fighting on the outskirts of Shebekino
Also in Shebekino, the «Monocrystal» plant, where army tankers were located, is reportedly blazing.
“Europe’s new energy problem: it now has too much gas”
“Gas futures have dropped by 86% from the peak in August 2022”
“Europe has come a long way from the frenzied stockpiling driving up natural gas prices a year ago. As of May 9, Europe’s gas storage was full to 62%, and at the current pace of refilling, storage is expected to hit its capacity of about 1,138 terawatt-hours (TWh) by late August, according to estimates by Morgan Stanley. And it is driving down gas prices.”
https://qz.com/europes-new-energy-problem-it-now-has-too-much-gas-1850431390
“It is also important to note that the targets of the strikes are gradually becoming objects closer to the contact line, and the fact that Russians started complaining about the destruction of critical logistics infrastructure, such as bridges in the Zaporizhia region, mirrors what we saw ahead of the Kherson counteroffensive operation and signals that that we are getting closer to the next one.”
Rubbing my hands together. Anticipation building.
But where are the GLSDBs?
“The Russian ballistic missile targeting the Ukraine Intelligence building landed in the Dnipro river near by. And Budinov does not have his office in that building.”
Like I said, Ukraine would be crazy to operate in that building.
Kadyrov’s personal butcher says he is going to kill Prigozhin for talking too much
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1664275459679617025
You don’t say
“A possible explanation for Putin’s reluctance to hit the West is the diminished state of Russia’s military, according to U.S. officials.
“It would not seem to be in their interest to get into a direct confrontation with NATO right now,” said the senior U.S. official. “They are not well positioned to do so.””
“3 NATO spy planes over Moldova”
Directly related to todays meeting
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