"The price for natural gas in the EU (Amsterdam) closed on Friday at below 25 EUR/MWh and has basically reached the mean level of the last 10 years.
Just in case for those asking whether we ever needed Russian gas or Nordstream. We didn't."
Posted on 05/27/2023 5:12:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Kadyrovites that were on their way to Zaporizhia.
“Explosion damages Russian oil pipeline building near Belarus border, governor says”
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1662460139750793224
Shebekino RuZZia taking a beating.
https://twitter.com/babaikit/status/1662457347350904835
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1662458850643963906
“a substation in #Shebekino.”
https://twitter.com/belgorodnewsbnr/status/1662455100588056578
“Shebekino continues to be targeted this afternoon, with at least one impact every 10 minutes or so. Hard to keep track of what is hit.”
Another WWII artillery piece destroyed.
“the most likely outcome of the war in Ukraine?”
In my view, it is a greatly weakened Russia - Militarily, Economically and Diplomatically. Finland, Sweden and the Ukraine in NATO; and Defense budgets of member States up across the board.
Have you guys heard weather forcasts for southern ukraine for the next two weeks?
Melitopol, from weather.com:
Sun 28
78°/60° PM Rain 77%
Mon 29
75°/58° PM Light Rain 70%
Tue 30
76°/58° PM Showers 57%
Wed 31
78°/57° Partly Cloudy 22%
Thu 01
76°/55° Mostly Sunny 15%
Fri 02
78°/58° Mostly Sunny 10%
Sat 03
80°/60° Mostly Sunny 8%
Sun 04
79°/59° PM Showers 42%
Mon 05
78°/59° Mostly Sunny 23%
Tue 06
80°/61° Partly Cloudy 24%
Wed 07
79°/61° Partly Cloudy 24%
Thu 08
80°/61° Partly Cloudy 17%
Fri 09
81°/62° Partly Cloudy 16%
So now there are dead and wounded Kadyrovites heading back to Chechnya.
Nah, only oil matters. If Russia doesn’t ship oil, it means they still have it in the ground.
It has to be stolen or our eventual defeat is guaranteed.
Posted weather in Daily - but after showers end today, weather is clear for the following 9 days.
Checked again and forecast has changed to Light rain today & tomorrow, Showers Tuesday, then partly cloudy until the 4th then some showers on the 5th then clear again
10 Day Weather-Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/1dc800f0bf4f2dcbc227f6271cc4d8eb55fe4e42f944362359163e2c872d57d0
Right now what oil Russia is selling is damn near around cost, with discounts and increased shipping and production costs. The world is happy to see Russia export all they can at this rate.
The ability of Russia to continue is questionable with the loss of western tech and technicians.
Pretty sure China is going to decide to eliminate the middle man and just annex, by Russian logic, land that rightfully belongs to them, because at some point in history someone who is if Chinese decent lived there…..
Not saying th is is good, but recent pipeline decision by China points to it.
Russian “federation “ will become smaller and more impotent, maybe Iran will let them be their little brother, there is another word that starts with a b that is probably more appropriate
“only oil matters. If Russia doesn’t ship oil, it means they still have it in the ground.”
It is pretty true that the Russian economy sinks of swims based on oil and gas - - even after two decades of significant diversification (Mining and Agriculture have improved greatly, as has downstream petroleum products). The Russian federal budget however, is still more dependent on oil and gas revenues, than even Saudi Arabia.
Lots of countries have oil in the ground. The country with the single largest proven reserves in the ground is Venezuela; whose economy is so screwed up from sanctions, mismanagement, theft, and flight of foreign expertise; that the average citizen lost about 20 lbs a year, for two years in a row. It takes a lot of money and technology to get production started and maintained - especially in extreme environments like the Arctic, or offshore.
The flight of foreign oil majors from Russia was more sudden and more extensive than what happened in Venezuela. Russia’s largest oil producing region is in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, and there wells and pipes will freeze and rupture if the flow halts in Winter.
That happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it took more than a decade to restore - only with foreign oil majors investing the bulk of the money, and doing the bulk of the work. They did so because the Russian Government wisely offered them the most favorable tax and regulatory environment to be profitable. But now they have all been burned with large write-offs of their investments, due to Russia’s political risk.
Those corporate boards are unlikely to approve new investments in Russia for at least a decade, without radical regime change there. Those Arctic Russian fields will produce until they fall apart from lack of maintenance over the coming few years, but if Russia can’t move their product, they are dead the first Winter. Capped wells there are lost for good, and new ones must be drilled, with new transportation infrastructure (the longest and most challenging of any major producer).
Meanwhile, the Global oil majors are investing their mountains of capital and expertise to increase new production outside of Russia - at a dramatically rapid rate, by historical standards.
The Russians have a better chance of maintaining production in their Caspian Basin fields, and in the Far East; then they do in the Arctic, but even those seem likely to be headed for Venezuelan style decline, starved of technology and expertise for maintenance (and near nothing for new development).
Sunni hates Shia. Everybody in the pool! The long hot Summer is here.
@visegrad24 2h
BREAKING:
Taliban soldiers entered Iran today and attacked an Iranian military base.
At least 3 people have been killed in today’s border clashes between Iran and Afghanistan.
@visegrad24 7h
“The Taliban transporting towed howitzers towards the border with Iran following the start of the border clashes 4 hours ago.
Looks like there will be an artillery duel as Iranian artillery has already been seen in action today.”
(I wonder if that is a Saudi knife in Iran’s back?)
Russia didn’t just start exporting oil and gas yesterday. They have been one of the top exporters since the 70’s. Yet here they are, a declining military power. A thriving oil industry in Russia guarantees nothing more or less than opulent prosperity for oligarchs and powerful politicians.
Redeploy more Russian reserves!
@visegrad24 8h (Belgorod Oblast, Russia)
Grafovka in the Belgorod region of Russia is under heavy shelling. It is 13 km from border with Ukraine.
The intensity in the cross-border artillery and drone attacks against Belgorod have been increasing successively over the past 2 weeks
@visegrad24 8h (Bryansk Oblast, Russia)
Incoming reports of an unmarked armed group of men having crossed into the Russian village of Sushany from Ukraine.
Battles are said to now be taking place in the Bryansk region.
A drone also struck a Russian military vehicle near Sushany, killing 2 Russian soldiers.
I have read that the ground is a thick soup south of Kherson and going toward the black sea and crimea. that it take time for all that to dry up for the tanks.
ukes will know all about that.
The normandy invasion of 1944 was delayed several times because of bad weather.
Within the last day or two I saw Dennis Davidov show a huge ship sailing the baltic with what he said were munitions and heavy equipment bound for ukraine. That they would be another two weeks before the equipment was in place.
I thought whoever gave him authorization to show that picture was stupid...if the picture is not out of date or a misdirection.
This could be a big development if Ukraine starts taking out the pipelines. Hungary is vulnerable in particular.
Dennis Davidov show a huge ship sailing the Baltic with what he said were munitions and heavy equipment bound for Ukraine. That they would be another two weeks before the equipment was in place.
—
Denys was just speculating - he had no more knowledge of what the ship carried than any of us. Further, it did not look like a US transport ship - it may have been, but not the usual ones the US uses. The rest is just more speculation.
"The price for natural gas in the EU (Amsterdam) closed on Friday at below 25 EUR/MWh and has basically reached the mean level of the last 10 years.
Just in case for those asking whether we ever needed Russian gas or Nordstream. We didn't."
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