The Russian-appointed deputy head of the Kherson Administration just called on the public for "MAXIMUM FAST EVACUATION"."
Posted on 10/19/2022 5:34:19 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1399
October 2022 – 192
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 366
October 2022 – 51
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
1399 tanks lost!
Demilitarization and denazification of RuZZia continues.
Stunning beat down of the invaders.
“A fun fact: our count reached 1000 in early September - so we documented 400 additional Russian tank losses in about 6 weeks.”
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1582653768818384896
“#BREAKING: Russian President Putin announced he signed a decree on the introduction of martial law in Russia-occupied Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1582700830670565376
“Ukrainian Army’s offensife confirmed by Russian source Rybar. According to the Rybar, the Ukrainian Army opened two fronts at Dudchany and Davydiv Brid in the northeast of Kherson.”
https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1582674069396168706
“You thought the T-62 parade was over? Wrong: another T-62MV and T-62M were captured by Ukrainian forces in #Kherson Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582631211012591617
Actually in Crimea. Can someone collect the bounty?
“Photo of Igor Girkin possibly in Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1582668002201571329
“An abandoned Russian UR-77 mine clearing charge launcher was destroyed by the 79th Air Assault Brigade using a drone-dropped munition. The drone which dropped the bomb was destroyed by the blast- no wonder, since the UZP-77 line charge consists of 725kg of explosives.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582491195162230785
“A Russian 9T452 transporter-loader for the BM-27 Uragan multiple rocket launcher system and a KamAZ truck with 220mm rockets were destroyed reportedly by a single guided missile from the HIMARS.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582703407696969728
“Ukrainians Return Home by the Millions Even as War Rages On
Family, penury, and guilt are motivating refugees to come back.”
“On a recent Saturday, a group of beginner dancers gathered to practice the heel flicks, twists, and sashays of the tango in Irpin, just outside Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Together with neighboring Bucha, the satellite town became a byword for the brutality of Russian occupation after Vladimir Putin’s troops retreated in April, leaving behind mass graves along with evidence of torture and civilian executions. But for two hours, twice a week, the dancers leave those horrors behind.
They’re mostly women, recently returned with their children from elsewhere in Europe. Some came back to reunite with their husbands or parents, others for jobs or the start of the school year. And some came back because of the gnawing sense of guilt they felt as refugees for not taking part in Ukraine’s life-and-death struggle against its larger neighbor. All of those interviewed said that as soon as Irpin’s Nuestro Tango studio reopened, they signed up to help cope with the war, which is taking its toll also on those who’d managed to escape the fighting.”
“Ukrainian Buk SAM system reportedly intercepting a “Shahed-136” Kamikaze drone.”
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1582716055977271296
“The recently donated IRIS-T SLM air defense battery from Germany 🇩🇪 is already successfully protecting the skies of Ukraine - the remains of its ground-to-air missile was found by locals today in Kyiv.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582712521789964290
- Russian missile and drone strikes continue for over a week, knocking out much of Ukraine's electric grid;
- Ukraine is wasting precious small arms ammunition in failed attempts to counter Russian Geran-2 drones;
- NATO claims it will send means to counter them - nothing of substance actually revealed;
- Russian forces continue to advance in Bakhmut, indicating Ukrainian forces are stretched too thin;
- Russian General Surovikin is focused on the defense of Kherson which is being evacuated;
- Fighting may reach the city, Russia has in the past withdrawn forces rather than have them destroyed or captured;
- Whatever gains Ukraine makes will be temporary - Kiev is trading its entire army for territory hoping for a political resolution in its favor ahead of a military resolution in Russia's;
Where do you live in RuZZia?
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Oct 18, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Iranian Officials Admit To Selling Russia Ballistic Missiles <——
Iranian officials told Reuters the country will sell hundreds of short range ballistic missiles, plus more drones, to Russia.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-iranian-officials-admit-to-selling-russia-ballistic-missiles
Excerpt:
The deal, first reported in that Post story which did not have an acknowledgment by Iran, involves Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar SRBMs capable of striking targets at distances of between 186 and 435 miles.
The sale comes as Russia appears to be running short of its own stock of ballistic missiles, like the long-range Kalibr cruise missiles that can be fired from warships and submarines, with a derivative of the same 3M14 land-attack missile also being available for ground launch. Stocks of Russia’s primary short-range ballistic missile, the Iskander-M, which also has a nuclear application, also appear to be running low after heavy use during the opening stages of the invasion. Iranian stocks would help offset that major loss in capability.
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
No major changes.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area: no changes.
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Today’s another call it quiet day on the front lines.
••General and Strategic Situation:
••Russian Economy:
••Office Space Vacancies:
In May, it was clear that entire industries are going to get wiped out, and now two more examples from different sectors of the Russian economy: office space vacancies in Moscow, which is the main economic center, because all revenue is centralized and all of the companies are headquartered in Moscow. Its the financial hub of Russia, because the economy is extremely centralized, the whole system is centralized around Moscow - that’s main market and you want to say Moscow is Russia.
Moscow is very different from the rest of Russia, in a way its a country of its own. Vacancies reached 28% which is an extremely high level, that also means a lot of those business centers are not making any profit, and at this point, loss making enterprises.
••Gold:
The second industry in Russia is gold mining. Russia has large deposits of gold & it has always been a significant source of the foreign exchange for Russia, which exports gold, mainly to the West, in especially in hard times. It is a revenue of last resort - where Russian government knows that they can still get at least some effects in exchange.
However this time, sanctions are apparently working, because gold mining companies met with the Russian government and complained, they gave two scenarios to the government either the Central Bank is buying gold for it’s reserves and paying the gold mining companies, or the companies will stop mining, lay off employees & the government will be paying the employees.
They choices they gave the government - both options are terrible choices. When the Central Bank is buying gold from gold mining companies, its not creating any value-added, or adding credit into circulation that’s not backed by anything in Russia, because that value that happens when Russia exports gold. Then it imports whatever products - semiconductors or machine building equipment, and that’s not happening. The whole positive feedback mechanism is broken at this point.
••Peace Terms:
There was a speech by the Russian General, Sergey Surovikin, who is in charge of the whole war in Ukraine or Russian aggression against Ukraine. He implicitly announced two points: the 1st point is the Russian negotiation offer: what Russia can accept.
He said Russia accepts Ukraine that’s not part of EU and NATO, but with the territorial losses: Crimea goes to Russia, all this newly captured territories go to Russia - whatever Russia captured, it keeps. On top of that Ukraine should stay out of NATO & the EU. That’s the vision of the Russian leadership which is totally unacceptable for Ukraine.
Ukrainian position is very clear, and of Ukrainian leadership is territorial integrity, getting back Crimea, and plus Nato and EU. From my perspective, the middle ground - where there is potential to meet is: Ukraine keeps territorial integrity, but doesn’t join EU and NATO; it stays neutral like Switzerland. That’s probably not the best analogy, maybe Israel. I don’t know, but something like that.
Unfortunately, everything went too far at this point on both sides. Until both sides are completely exhausted or they reach their final destination, which is the 1917 moments (revolution) on both sides, that’s probably when the final peace will be reached. At that point its extremely unpredictable where its where its gonna fall out.
The 2nd point that he made is the Russian military command is prepared to evacuate Kherson bridgehead, and this is on the table. That’s a real option they are considering.
Then there is the head of Russian Military Administration of the region or Military Civilian Administration of the region also came out & gave a speech, saying, ‘everybody evacuate’. That’s the message to all of the collaborators with the Russian occupational forces - get out, leave Kherson bridgehead. Also they don’t know exact details, but they even offer housing certificates to those who live in Russia.
This looks like much more better organized withdrawal where they don’t leave those collaborators behind, which typically happened especially in Kharkiv region. There is a lot of outcry within Russia, ‘why are we leaving behind the collaborators, we should take them was with us’. This time it looks, at least optically, its gonna look better, because all of the collaborators are offered the opportunity to leave, and they urged to leave.
There are anecdotal reports saying the Civil Administration is actively leaving the Kherson Bridgehead, and even there are reports among Russian troops that they are preparing to evacuate. This is definitely is on the table and Russia will lose Kherson bridgehead - just a the question of time, how quickly, how badly its going to be. It looks like its not going to be as bad for the Russian side; its going to be more or less in an orderly way and organized.
What is going to be probably lost is heavy equipment, not all, but majority. That’s the only big hit which is probably going to happen to the Russian side; seems like the soldiers, manpower probably will manage to withdraw most of them, except of the rear guard units that will be tasked with preventing quick advances of Ukrainian forces.
••Nova Kakhovka:
Another dangerous point actually that was main mentioned by the head of Russian Military/Civilian Administration said, potentially, the dam in Nova Kakhovka is going to be blown up. Hopefully, its not gonna happen: first of all, because that’s going to be huge, huge problem for everyone. It can kill many people, 10s of 1,000s of people drown. If you can imagine a whole huge flow of water will go simply down; its going to be terrible from all angles, there is no question about it.
Thinking logically about the situation: does the Ukrainian side want to blow it up? Well, no its in the interest of Ukrainian site to blow it up, because a first of all, its a power generation, its hydropower generation which is the cheapest and nominally cleanest way to generate electricity and extremely reliable.
You have control over it; its one of the best sources of electricity, I’m aware of in the country. For the Ukrainian side, there’s no point of blowing it up, plus Ukraine doesn’t need to get cross the Dnipro River there because it can then resume attacks from the Zaporizhya frontline.
There is no point in crossing Dnipro River - its very wide, its its gonna be suicidal attack to try to establish bridgehead on the other side of the Dnipro River, on the eastern side.
Ukrainians I can attack from the Zaporizhya front line achieve those goals. For those reasons Ukrainian side probably doesn’t want to do it. The Russia side, I would say there is no interest to do that either, because right now they have nearly perfect protection with all of this amount of water resources. That creates a pretty strong protection for the retreating Russian troops, so they don’t need to keep many troops on the west side.
They can be can be reassigned elsewhere: Zaporizhya to North Luhansk’ or elsewhere. The only question is the Nova Kakhovka dam - that’s only weak point, but, hopefully, it doesn’t end up in that situation.
••Ukraine:
The attacks continue at smaller scale, mostly using Shahid-136 UAVs: the only reason they are successful is because Ukrainian defenses are extremely weak or non-existent; that’s the only reason, otherwise, they are pretty primitive tool, but it works.
Today, Zelenski came out and said about a third of the Ukrainian power generation infrastructure has been destroyed, which is not true. (Edit: Goes on a lengthy in the weeds discussion about why Zelenski is not correct.)
••State Border:
Has somewhat stabilized: the artillery fire has slowed down but relatively to the peaks, its definitely on the lower end.
••North Luhansk:
Things here are more or less stable; there were some reports that Russian reports would not verified that Ukrainian troops tried to attack this Kyzemivka area, but they were not successful - looks like a probing attack more than anything.
Its still puzzling why Ukrainian just stopped advancing, but there is no question that Ukrainian command wants to liberate all of this North Luhansk’ territory; there is no question that the push will continue, its just the question is why to stop when Russian military is at the weakest, and now its getting more and more fresh resources to be able to to defend the ground.
••North Donbas:
Things here are more or less the same; the only active agent of change is Wagner mercenaries that continue their attacks on the Solidar area & on Bakhmut. What they achieved is they managed to crossing a road . The situation is definitely not critical, but its not moving in the right direction, and the only way to address it is to have large offensive on northwest which will force a withdrawal of Russian troops.
••Central Donbas:
The only new achievement is Russian troops changes direction of their attack: usually they attack from northeastern direction - this time, they attacked in northwestern direction, that’s that’s a huge progress, I would say, in their offensive efforts.
••Kherson Bridgehead:
An update on units: 11th Airborne Brigade is back on the front line, Russian command really doubled down.
a lot of troops have been brought here which initially meant that Russian side is going to defend us at all course at the same time based on that conversation the interview today by the head of the Russian Expeditionary forces in Ukraine, General Surovikin, it looks like all of these forces are going to be withdrawn back to the eastern side.
At the beginning of the war, the 11th Airborne Brigade was completely decimated in attacks west of Kiev, when they tried to get to Kiev from the west. It finally showed up on on the battlefield: it took quite a while to rebuild this brigade because it was, I wouldn’t say annihilated, but severely damaged.
Hahahaha. Little Pukin still dreaming.
“Russia accepts Ukraine that’s not part of EU and NATO, but with the territorial losses: Crimea goes to Russia, all this newly captured territories go to Russia - whatever Russia captured, it keeps. On top of that Ukraine should stay out of NATO & the EU.”
The Russian-appointed deputy head of the Kherson Administration just called on the public for "MAXIMUM FAST EVACUATION"."
For our pro-Putin “friends”:
The city of Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast, before and after the Russian invasion.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1582352528226025473
This is what you are defending. If the US military did something similar, there would be such an uproar that even the President would be forced to resign, but if Russia does it, you are perfectly OK with it. You aren’t Christians, but moral relativists.
“This time (as opposed to the Kharkiv withdrawal, where collaborators were abandoned) its gonna look better (domestically, in Russia), because all of the collaborators are offered the opportunity to leave.”
Maybe a good bit of this announced evacuation, is just Public Relations to mitigate the bad press from this defeat, or just cover for the soldiers to exfiltrate in civilian clothes. I saw a report that Russian soldiers in Kherson City were seen in groups today in civilian clothes, without rifles.
The ferries reportedly started running the evacuation at 07:00 local time in Kherson today (19 Oct).
“What is going to be probably lost is heavy equipment, not all, but majority.”
Speedy was wondering yesterday how much of the heavy weaponry would be captured or destroyed by Ukrainian forces. So far, it seems to be shaping up to be a big write off of equipment by the Russians.
They are probably going down their priority list of elite units to try to salvage their best troops first, and some scrubs will be left holding the bag to die, to cover their retreat. Maybe they will still be shuttling mobnik cannon fodder over to side that is being evacuated, as the ferries make their return trips to pick up more of the elite troops and Government types, that are preferred.
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