Posted on 03/31/2020 3:46:52 PM PDT by RaceBannon
agree. he’s a slimy little toad
You’re right - they’ll be higher than 100,000 - 200,000.
Those numbers (per Birx) are if we do everything “perfectly”.
There’s zero chance that we will do things perfectly. Just look at the denial here in our little corner of the ‘net on FR..do you think all Americans are going to do things perfectly in terms of social distancing, etc?
For my money, too high.
Computer models are tools of the inept and those with agendas (terms that are not mutually exclusive, BTW).
Seen it all of my adult life since studying research and statistics in college many years ago. They are making extrapolations based on......extrapolations which in turn are based on largely unverifiable raw data.
May as well be using a magic 8 ball.
Um, remember the British researcher who predicted 500,000 deaths in Great Britain from Coronavirus? Well guess what, he was wrong and had to readjust his numbers. Guess what his new projected death rate for Coronavirus deaths in GB is? 20K or fewer! We aren’t going to be anywhere near 100K deaths from this virus! These estimates are grossly irresponsible and complete bull sh*t!
Just in case you doubt me:
Click-bait.
Worst case (Trump just said it during the briefing) was “2.2 million OR MORE”.
BEST case is 100,000 - 240,000 (240K was the number on Birx’s slide, although she kept saying 200,000).
based on data changing daily, it gets plugged in daily so numbers change
Not even close. Who makes up the figures? The same people who say the world will end in less than 10 years due to global warming?
“Dr. Birx further explained in slide two, that the DATA, not model numbers, show a very different pair of slope equations.”
GEEZ. Are you trying to spoil the fun?
The chart shown by Birx during today’s briefing shows an expected 3.5K or more deaths PER DAY at peak, and deaths going into JUNE.
Here in Snohomish and Eastern King County Washington where this thing first was discovered in the US and found a vulnerable population at a local nursing home... we have over half a million Chinese people many who visit home frequently. Over ten thousand made it back after the travel ban by diverting to Vancouver International a three hour drive from SeaTac. The Canadians were more than happy to help people keep flowing into our country without any type of health screening.
When the pressitudes asked the President directly he said “Let me let Fauci & Birx answer that question they are the experts.”
The UK model was NOT “walked back”.
Did you see THIS?
i’m thinking in that direction as well...
Explain this:
how many times do I have to explain that to YOU
The first number was if no action was taken
the second number is with intense social distancing over several months
STOP WITH THE FAKE NEWS
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
4:52 PM · Mar 26, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
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neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
Replying to
@neil_ferguson
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
And yet the total worldwide COVID-19 death toll is under 40K.
What I got from the conference was POTUS was saying if the that Fauci/Birx predictions were correct, POTUS is not predicting himself.
The number of projected deaths was readjusted from 500K to 20K or less!
I just dont buy it..now my math skills stink but what is that, 20,000 dead per day..its NOT gonna happen..heck that isn’t even happening in Italy on its worst day
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