The Mortality Rate Might Go Down To 0.9% After Italy’s Health Chief Said That The Number Of Coronavirus Cases Is Probably TEN TIMES Higher Than The Official Reports

Conservative US ^ | 03.24.2020 | Alex Hall

[lepton]

According to a new study by the journal Science — 6 of 7 coronavirus victims, or 86% of infections, were undocumented.”

Author thinks we should believe there was a “study” in the Journal “Science” saying 86% of cases are undetected. He does not provide a link to the study, because of course there either is no such study, or the study does not make the assertion that 86% of Covid19 cases are asymptomatic.

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There is a study.

The 86% (6 of 7) unknown cases refers only to the likely situation in China while the Chinese government was actively denying there was even human-human transmission, before they switched gears and began the crackdown. The same study also reports that the proportion of unknown cases dropped to roughly 35% (1 of 3) within two weeks of actually trying to treat as a transmissible disease and quarantine folks.

Some folks also have used the study to try and claim that 86% of people with the disease had no symptoms - which the study does not say at all.

[lepton]

“Although 18% of the population was infected in recent outbreaks of seasonal influenza and in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, only 23% of infections were symptomatic according to a community-based study published online March 17 in Lancet Respiratory Medicine.”

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“Although 18% of the population was infected in recent outbreaks of seasonal influenza and in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, only 23% of infections were symptomatic, and only 17% led to medical attention, according to a community-based study published online March 17 in Lancet Respiratory Medicine.”

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So working backwards, it is saying that of those that were symptomatic with the flu, roughly 75% led to medical attention? That seems extraordinarily high, even understanding that most of those cases were just doctors visits. The paper is a bit unclear about how they differentiated their testing from medical attention.

“A large number of well individuals mixing widely in the community might, even if only mildly infectious, make a substantial contribution to onward transmission,”

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And THAT is the reason to believe that for the Coronavirus, at least in the US, there were not several times the unknown cases to known cases, especially given the transmission rates given for the asymptomatic.

[Outlaw76]

These false cries of racism have to end for the good of humanity.

China is not a race. I’m no expert but off the top of my head I can think of three distinct racial groups that make up the Chinese people. (Mongol, Uighur, and what we would consider typical Chinese) I would bet there are many many more.

China is a country that covers a vast region of the Northern Hemisphere.

Just because you can’t easily put an ‘ist’ on the end of country or region, or even religion, doesn’t mean you should opt for the easy answer and chose race. (Not pointing at you, pointing at the idiots who want to call everything racism)

From Wikipedia:
The major minority ethnic groups in China are Zhuang (16.9 million), Hui (10.5 million), Manchu (10.3 million), Uyghur (10 million), Miao (9.4 million), Yi (8.7 million), Tujia (8.3 million), Tibetan (6.2 million), Mongol (5.9 million), Dong (2.8 million), Buyei (2.8 million), Yao (2.7 million), Bai (1.9 million), Korean (1.8 million), Hani (1.6 million), Li (1.4 million), Kazakh (1.4 million) and Dai (1.2 million)

[Mount Athos]

>"so working backwards, it is saying that of those that were symptomatic with the flu, roughly 75% led to medical attention?"

me: Of 10,000 people (normalized), 8172 not infected, 1828 infected. Of these 1828 infected, 1371 are asymptomatic. Of the 457 symptomatic infections, 78 see a doctor (for any reason, could be non-flu reason. Note that far fewer than 457 would meet CDC definition of 'flu like illness' since they lack fever level to count as one but have other symptom.)

Of these 78 who see a doctor, only 24 of these have their flu case acknowledged/discussed in their docs medical notes. This is how many would be reported as a "confirmed flu case" without blood serum antibody + PCR testing.



"Most people with PCR-confirmed influenza did not consult and among those who did, influenza or influenza-like illness was rarely recorded in medical notes. Medical record review of 93 PCR-confirmed influenza cases across all seasons and of 459 episodes of influenza-like illness showed that 16 of 93 people with PCR-confirmed influenza (17%, 10–26) and 96 of 459 people with episodes of influenza-like illness (21%, 17–25) consulted their family doctor. Of the 96 patients consulting with influenza-like illness only eight (8%, 4–16) had influenza or influenza-like illness recorded in their medical record. Of the people with respiratory illness, those younger than 5 years were most likely to have a medical consultation (appendix).

Of 133 PCR-confirmed cases of influenza, with data available from end of season surveys, there was one admission to hospital potentially attributable to influenza (febrile convulsions in a child younger than 5 years within 2 weeks of a positive swab for influenza A H1N1 pdm2009). There were no deaths among these 133 PCR-confirmed cases. This single admission gives a maximum estimated hospitalisation rate of 0·75% (95% CI 0·02–4·19). Of 226 seroconverters to influenza, with data available from end of season surveys, there were two admissions to hospital that were potentially attributable to influenza: one in a young adult with a four-fold titre rise to influenza A H1N1 pdm2009 admitted with a chest infection in the winter of 2010–11 and one in an individual aged 45–64 years with a four-fold rise in titre to influenza B admitted with pneumonia during the winter of 2010–11. These two admissions give a maximum estimated hospitalisation rate for serological infection of 0·88% (95% CI 0·11–3·19). This compares with three respiratory hospitalisations in 1730 participants who did not have a four-fold titre rise (0·17%, 95% CI 0·04–0·51). There were two respiratory deaths in the cohort, both of which occurred in vaccinated participants older than 65 years during the 2008–09 winter season; one was partly attributable to chest infection and the other was attributable to pneumonia. It is not possible to infer whether or not influenza contributed because there were no nasal swab samples and post mortem serum samples were not sought.

Primary-care-based surveillance greatly underestimated the extent of infection and illness in the community (figure 3). "

" On average influenza infected 18% of unvaccinated people each winter. Up to three-quarters of infections were asymptomatic and about a quarter of infections had PCR-confirmed disease. 17% of people with PCR-confirmed disease had medically attended illness. "

"Our rates of infection and disease were similar to those found in historical cohort studies and in more recent, mostly pandemic, studies. Our finding that a high proportion of infections were asymptomatic was consistent with other research.35 "

"Reported cases of influenza represent the tip of a large clinical and subclinical iceberg that is mainly invisible to routine surveillance systems (figure 3)."

"The proportion of serologically confirmed infections that are asymptomatic is an often neglected variable, which is an important component of severity. Our finding that only 23% (95% CI 13–34) of infections are symptomatic is lower than is sometimes assumed, but is consistent with findings from other studies of seasonal influenza"

" Measurement of the proportion of serologically confirmed infections that are asymptomatic should be an early priority for any emerging infection of pandemic potential. This provides an additional index of severity complementing population level data on admission to hospital and deaths. "