The EMP Threat

NorCal Blogs ^ | 11/23/2010 | Jack Lee

[Blueflag]

Code —

What I can agree with you on is the need to discuss this at a well-informed, fact-based level.

For years there circulated the ‘story’ of a USAF or SAC test of an exoatmospheric nuclear blast that fried low voltage transformers in Hawaii. Despite its persistence, it is NOT a true story.

There is science to the propagation and power AND EFFECTS/DAMAGE of EMP. There is also science to its mitigation.

What’s NOT clear in the public media is the degree to which civilian infrastructure will survive various scenarios.

Instead of being so dismissive, why don’t you reference articles that will support your point — that EMP is NOT a credible threat?

FWIW, if your main point is that CME-EMP is a lower-risk threat, I am with you.

[oh8eleven]

That an EMP attack would be like a “continental time machine that would moves us back to the nineteenth century.”
I think it would be much worse than that.
I agree 100%.

[Quix]

Hmmmmm . . . Thx Thx.

Sounds like things are winding up on every front.

Hope I can get all the rest of the materials together for the porch/sunroom before the poo hits the fan . . .

That way I could at least operate my loom . . . doesn’t require electricity! LOL.

[RinaseaofDs]

Lots of things will stop. The planes will drop, but some will land hard, and others will crash.

Getting back on line will take a few months, but we’ll manage.

As for the military, their stuff will work, and anyone launching an EMP attack on the US isn’t going to live to talk about it much, since it will be looked at as an existential threat to the US. We’ll respond in kind.

Worst case - it’s like a neutron bomb going off, but everybody lived through it.

If you’re at the point where someone decides to use an EMP burst, you’re at war.

For my money, and I can choose the real nuclear bomb, or the one that just does the side effects of the nuclear bomb, I’m taking the nuke.

For my EXTRA money, here’s hoping we have a stockpile of battlefield neutron bombs. Kills the people, leaves the weapons in place.

[Downsouth55]

That's why I have a 1965 GMC pickup in my barn. All I need to do is take it out of mothballs oh I also have a “B” model John Deere. They will run after an EMP.

[jazminerose]

Yup. We keep talking about buying an old pre computer truck, too.

[CodeToad]

“Does if take a POWERFUL EMP? yes. CAN it be caused by a nuke? YES. *IS* it possible? yes. Is it plausible? YES.”

The actual answers are “no”, not “yes”. Lightening puts more stress on the power lines and that happens every single day. We also have the ability to quickly respond to and repair cascade failures as has been the case in the past with such events after ice storms or solar flares. Even massive ice storms have not taken out the entire grid and only parts of it for short periods of time. The idea we are going to zombie land after an EMP attack, if anyone can even generate such a thing, is silly.

Besides we are not even talking about electrical lines when discussing EMP. To the uneducated, the idea is that anything and everything electrical and electronic no matter what is going to fry. We’ve got dorks trying to buy older vehicles to avoid the engine computers while not understanding the alternators and starter motors are electrical and electronic components. The level of ignorance and stupidity is astounding with the EMP crowd. They are building “faraday cages” out of chicken wire and brass mesh thinking that is going to save them. They are buying old, broken microwave ovens to use as shielding, not even understanding the nature of EMP. Some have even coated their entire basements with aluminum foil! They have grandiose delusions about a MadMax society where they will prevail after “the grid is down”.

Seriously, this EMP thing is retarded.

[Blueflag]

Code —

I admire your persistence and passion, and you apparently work in the utility industry, perhaps engineering or maintaining SCADA systems/devices. Thus your firsthand knowledge.

But I gotta question your ardent belief that EMP cannot damage the electrical grid and controlling systems, and that ‘we’ could repair an EMP-damaged grid in a reasonable time frame, over large geographic areas, prior to substantial social disruption (to be polite) in congested urban areas.

For example, your position/opinion of the grid’s durability is at direct odds with the EMP Commission’s position, stated as recently as June of this year. See here: http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1656/1 of all places. It’s a good read.

I would agree that folks are doing some crazy stuff as EMP-preppers. Trying to make an old vehicle NEBS compliant is a good bit of folly.

BUT ... I don’t see why you are so confident that EMP is effectively harmless to modern electronics, whether man-caused or CME-caused.

NET: Why are you so convinced EMP is not a threat to ‘modern’/digital civilization? Just askin’

[bolobaby]

I read this book and enjoyed it *somewhat*. The storytelling was actually atrocious. He spends more time TELLING us what is happening around town during council meetings instead of SHOWING us. Nothing epitomizes this more than the fact he recounts the “big battle” after the fact.

Booooring.

The details made the book fascinating, but he should have co-written it with someone who has an inkling on how to actually tell a story.

[oh8eleven]

Nothing epitomizes this more than the fact he recounts the “big battle” after the fact.
LOL ... I thought the same thing. Must have been trying to meet a publisher's deadline.

[wxgesr]

EMPs can be localized.....carried in a breifcase, I think Germany sells one for abuot 40K. Think of the chaos presented when/if these are triggered in the right places.

http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/6060791.html

[CodeToad]

“EMP Commission’s position”

First rule of politics: Follow the money. Who wants billions more for “infrastructure” buildouts? Utility companies. Who wouldn’t want taxpayer funds to build out their businesS? Hell Bells, if I could swindle the taxpayer to build my business I’d take it, too! Suckers!

EMP is no more a real thing than global warming, yet, billions of dollars are spent on grants and studies with no end use whatsoever. In the case of EMP, utility companies, from generation to transmission, would love to have the taxpayers build their equipment out.

Go read the “
reports”. They claim everything from “older homes have older transformers and it would be advisable to place such utilities underground with new transformers” to claims they need to pudate switch gear. Of course it would! It would save the utility companies billions in coming repairs.

Does it really take a PhD to follow the money?

[CodeToad]

“Why are you so convinced EMP is not a threat to ‘modern’/digital civilization? Just askin’”

Why do I also believe global warming is a scam, too, that is costing me, the taxpayer, money? EMP is a scam just the same and it could wind up costing me billions more. It also goes to show how feeble minded we Americans have become that we know nothing about a subject but hold onto it religiously.

[CodeToad]

Did you even read the commision’s report? The charter, alone, states an obvious bias to find EMP a threat.

DUITES OF THE COMMISSION:
(a) Review of EMP Threat. The Commission shall assess:
(1) the nature and magnitude of potential high-altitude EMP threats to the United States from all potentially hostile states or non-state actors that have or could acquire nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles enabling them to perform a high-altitude EMP attack against the United States within the next 15 years;
(2) the vulnerability of United States military and especially civilian systems to an EMP attack, giving special attention to vulnerability of the civilian infrastructure as a matter of emergency preparedness;
(3) the capability of the United States to repair and recover from damage inflicted on United States military and civilian systems by an EMP attack; and
(4) the feasibility and cost of hardening select military and civilian systems against EMP attack.
(b) Recommendation. The Commission shall recommend any steps it believes should be taken by the United States to better protect its military and civilian systems from EMP attack.

[Blueflag]

I did. And it’s good to have that out in the open in the debate. Clearly they are predisposed to quantify a presumed threat, not test the hypothesis.

But, I still haven’t seen a report (don’t mean to put the burden on you) that provides a fact-based counter point to the notion that EMP *IS* a threat to the generalized civilian infrastructure.

Here’s a similar report to stew on, by the way: http://empcoalition.org/images/upload/media/EMP%20Council%20Update%20March%202010.pdf

Let’s suppose you are right, that the EMP Commission as well as the International EMP Council are both biased. WHAT organization has published a good counterpoint? It’d be worth reading.

I think we all know now that the IPCC ‘global warming’ was fraudulent and essentially non-scientific. It was willfully manipulated and fabricated. NUMEROUS good books and papers effectively disputed the IPCC report(s) and effectively sent Owl Gore running for cover.

Truly, where are the good reports refuting the threat of EMP? It would be GOOD news to know the EMP ‘threat’ is really all about “following the money” just like global warming/ AGW/ Climate Change.

NET: The commission’s bias does not make them factually wrong, but it would be good to read a report refuting their conclusions, data and/or original hypothesis. We have plenty of sources agreeing with their data and findings.

p.s. I hope you have a very nice Thanksgiving with friends and family.

p.p.s. I am a scientist by education (physiology/ cell biology/ biochemistry) but never earned a living post-grad as a scientist. I only say this so you know I understand the scientific method and can read a pub with a cynical eye.

[Blueflag]

The “follow the money” reference is a good caution. I will grant you that. ANY time there’s money to be made off the ‘crisis of the week’ then an informed, reasonable electorate NEEDS to be suspicious of what the government is funding.

My position is that there seems to be reasonably good science, peer-reviewed, that supports the idea that EMP *DOES* present a threat to ‘life as we know it.’

You wrote “EMP is no more a real thing than global warming.” What I want in order to accept your point of view is to read a reference paper or pub or something to support your point of view.

It’s a worthy argument. We don’t need or deserve another false flag for our fools to throw money at.

Thanks for the debate, BTW.

[Blueflag]

I never “believed” in AGW because I followed the facts and the science, not the hype.

I can’t stick with you on the parallels between AGW and EMP simply because SO FAR the science behind the EMP threat appears credible and plausible. AGW was never plausible or credible.

To change my point of view, I need to see good science refuting the threat of EMP.

[Lancey Howard]

Woo-HOO! 'Ocean's Eleven' and 'Dark Angel'!