Posted on 05/13/2006 8:32:50 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
Hillary Clinton wobbles as her backers turn to Barack Obama
TimesOnline.com | 12/9/07
Posted on 12/08/2007 11:01:49 PM EST by LdSentinal
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936831/posts
The GOP nomination is up for grabs
RealClearPolitics | December 9th 2007 | Salena Zito
Posted on 12/09/2007 9:07:52 AM EST by LonesomeHawk
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936935/posts
Need For Romney To Talk Religion Is The Shame Of Campaign So Far
IBD | December 6, 2007 | Charles Krauthammer
Posted on 12/06/2007 10:16:46 PM EST by Kaslin
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1935948/posts
That Huckabee fella Ain’t too Bright
Conservative Superiority | December 6, 2007 | Tommy Oliver
Posted on 12/07/2007 11:42:50 AM EST by Josh Painter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936192/posts
London Guardian: “He hasn’t been Mormon enough”
The Guardian (London) | December 6, 2007 | Daniel Nasaw
Posted on 12/07/2007 9:53:38 AM EST by AFA-Michigan
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936117/posts
Fox News Just Claims Fred Thompson
Hit Illegal Immigration Question Out of the Park!
FoxNews | 29 Nov 07 | FoxNews
Posted on 11/29/2007 9:01:30 AM EST by xzins
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1932210/posts
Convention Wisdom - A Minneapolis floor fight is not so far-fetched.
National Review Online | December 10, 2007 | David Freddoso
Posted on 12/10/2007 1:38:03 PM EST by Lucius Cornelius Sulla
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1937455/posts
Huckabee Bristles at Creationism Query
Associated Press | Liz Sidoti and Libby Quaid
Posted on 12/05/2007 2:44:21 AM EST by Plutarch
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934909/posts
Independent Run Would Damage The Dems Worse (Mayor Bloomberg)
NY Post | June 21, 2007 | Charles Hurt
Posted on 12/11/2007 2:32:47 PM EST by neverdem
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1937993/posts
What if Huckabee’s ‘signature issue’ is a scam?
vanity | December 11, 2007 | Plutarch
Posted on 12/11/2007 1:57:40 AM EST by Plutarch
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1937730/posts
Jim Gilchrist Gives Major Endorsement to Mike Huckabee
The Minuteman Project Website | Tuesday, December 11, 2007 | Jim Gilchrist
Posted on 12/12/2007 11:28:38 PM EST by BillyBoy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1938740/posts
Mike Huckabee’s Speech on Foreign Policy
The Council on Foreign Relations | September 28, 2007 | Mike Huckabee
Posted on 12/13/2007 2:36:39 AM EST by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938775/posts
Huckabee Critiques Bush in Foreign Affairs Piece
[Mod sez: the Huckster is going all Ron Paul on ya]
The Washington Post | 12/14/2007 | Michael Abramowitz
Posted on 12/14/2007 6:20:04 PM EST by dano1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939664/posts
Scratch Huckabee
The Illinois Review | December 15, 2007 | Mark Rhoads
Posted on 12/15/2007 4:38:17 AM EST by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1939819/posts
America’s Priorities in the War on Terror
(”Bush admin...arrogant bunker mentality”)
Foreign Affairs | 15 Dec 2007 | Michael D. Huckabee
Posted on 12/15/2007 5:54:07 PM EST by Mr Rogers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1940069/posts
Huckabee: America’s Priorities in the War on Terror
(”Bush admin...arrogant bunker mentality”)
Foreign Affairs via Real Clear Politics | December 15, 2007 | Mike Huckabee
Posted on 12/15/2007 9:49:28 PM EST by FocusNexus
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940130/posts
Confused & Concerned About Huckabee
( Victor Davis Hanson is rightly confused about ....
Flopping Aces | December 15, 2007 at 2:22 PM | Curt
Posted on 12/16/2007 1:16:21 AM EST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940174/posts
McCain Vows He Won’t Let Dems ‘Lose This War’
ABC News | 12/11/07 | Bret Hovell
Posted on 12/13/2007 12:51:42 AM EST by Norman Bates
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938759/posts
Pelosi: Republicans ‘like’ Iraq War
Breitbart.com | December 13, 2007 | By Charles Babington
Posted on 12/13/2007 2:51:42 PM EST by Squidpup
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939048/posts
Pelosi: Republicans ‘like’ Iraq War
(calls for new strategy as if there isn’t one in place)
AP via Breitbart | Dec 13 02:23 PM US/Eastern | Charles Babington
Posted on 12/13/2007 3:02:00 PM EST by enough_idiocy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939055/posts
(12/12) Which GOP presidential hopeful did the best job of advancing his chances in today's debate?
| Fred Thompson | |
| 52.4% |   |
| Mitt Romney | |
| 12.4% | |
| Duncan Hunter | |
| 11.4% | |
| Ron Paul | |
| 9.1% | |
| Mike Huckabee | |
| 5.7% | |
| Rudy Giuliani | |
| 4.3% | |
| Alan Keyes | |
| 2.4% | |
| Tom Tancredo | |
| 1.7% | |
| John McCain | |
| 0.6% |
|
thanks Berosus.
Elizabeth Edwards: “Republicans Scare Me”
ABC News | 12/15/07 | Raelyn Johnson
Posted on 12/15/2007 10:13:21 PM EST by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1940136/posts
Iowa’s First Lady To Back Edwards For President [Mari Culver]
John Edwards 2008 website | December 16, 2007 | Tony Leys, Des Moines Register
Posted on 12/18/2007 12:29:20 AM EST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1941058/posts
Joementum continues:
Lieberman to Endorse McCain
Weekly Standard | 12/16/2007 | William Kristol
Posted on 12/16/2007 3:19:51 PM EST by tj21807
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940366/posts
Lieberman To Endorse McCain
The Atlantic | 16 December 2007 | Marc Ambinder
Posted on 12/16/2007 3:19:59 PM EST by Alter Kaker
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940367/posts
Does Lieberman Help McCain?
Captain’s Quarters | Dec. 17, 2007 | Ed Morrissey
Posted on 12/17/2007 9:53:10 AM EST by jdm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940627/posts
McCain gaining unlikely backer (Joe Lieberman)
The Washington Times | December 17,2007 | Joseph Curl
Posted on 12/17/2007 3:46:19 PM EST by no dems
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940801/posts
DUmmie FUnnies 12-17-07
(HUffies unleash fury on Lieberman!)
DUmmie FUnnies | December 17, 2007
Ari Melber, HUffies, and Charles Henrickson
Posted on 12/17/2007 4:23:52 PM EST by Charles Henrickson
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1940821/posts
McCain basks in ex-Dem Lieberman support
AP on Yahoo | 12/17/07 | Jennifer Loven - ap
Posted on 12/17/2007 5:38:47 PM EST by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940857/posts
“Odd Men Out” CARTOON featuring buddies John McCain and Joe Lieberman...
IowaPresidentialWatch.com | 12-17-2007 | IPWGOP
Posted on 12/17/2007 7:42:19 PM EST by IPWGOP
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1940931/posts
Barack Obama seizes his chance
Daily Telegraph(UK) | 12/16/2007 | Toby Harnden
Posted on 12/16/2007 10:39:11 AM EST by 1066AD
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1940285/posts
Cynthia Tucker: Right-wing Christians now plague GOP
Atlanta Journal Constitution | 12/16/07 | Cynthia tucker
Posted on 12/15/2007 7:44:26 AM EST by Oshkalaboomboom
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939850/posts
Is the GOP about to commit “Huckacide”?
Real Clear Politics | December 14, 2007 | Rich Lowry
Posted on 12/14/2007 4:55:13 PM EST by darkmatter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1939634/posts
Hunter Recommends War Veterans Replace State Dept Personnel
email | November 1, 2007 | Gary Becks
Posted on 11/03/2007 6:57:21 PM EDT by chaos_5
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1920614/posts
thanks Ernest and George.
Big push planned by Republican Fred Thompson
(presenting his closing argument for the Iowa caucuses
Fred08 | December 17, 2007 | Winston-Salem Journal
Posted on 12/18/2007 12:57:02 PM EST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941271/posts
and for that matter:
Pelosi Says She Miscalculated GOP Determination on Iraq
Congressional Quarterly | Dec. 13, 2007
Posted on 12/18/2007 12:32:04 PM EST by george76
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941264/posts
Thanks Kevmo.
Popular Science Predictions Exchange:
http://ppx.popsci.com/
(Vanity) According to Intrade,
the winner of today’s GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
Vanity | 12/12/07 | Kevmo
Posted on 12/13/2007 2:31:53 AM EST by Kevmo
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1938773/posts
You’re welcome. Here’s another interesting prediction article for your collection.
How to Forecast an Election
(And How To Win One!)
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/forums/show/3.page
by Leighton Vaughan Williams
Leighton Vaughan Williams is director of the Betting Research Unit and director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
My first personal experience of the relative merits of opinion polls and betting markets in forecasting the outcome of an election occurred in 1985 in a by-election called to fill a vacant seat for the UK Parliament. The by-election was taking place in a rural corner of Wales in a constituency called Brecon and Radnor. The key players were the Labour and the Liberal candidates. On the day of the election a poll was published in the Daily Mirror newspaper, commissioned from the MORI polling organization. This gave the Labour candidate a commanding 18% lead over the Liberal. Meanwhile, a short walk to the local office of Ladbrokes, the leading bookmaker, found a rather different picture. The odds-makers were making the Liberal the odds-on favorite with the Labour candidate the relative longshot. The late-breaking MORI poll did nothing to change the price. Who won? It was the Liberal, of course, and those who followed the money.
Indeed, it seemed to me even then, well before I studied the subject in any depth, that people’s responses to opinion polls are very sensitive to the form and structure of the questionnaire and that the validity of the findings are even more sensitive to the sample of voters taken and whether those surveyed are likely to vote. Meanwhile, decisions backed by hard-earned money are likely to be very carefully considered and to weigh and discount relevant and irrelevant information in a serious and appropriate fashion.
That’s the theory at least. The most convincing point, however, was that the market had done so much better a job of predicting the election result than the trusted pollster. It was several years before I realized that what applied to the small rural backwater of Brecon and Radnor applied equally well in a study of every U.S. presidential election between 1868 and 1940. In only one year, 1916, did the candidate clearly favored in the betting the month before the election end up losing, when Charles Evans Hughes lost to the incumbent, Woodrow Wilson, in a tight race. (See “Historical Presidential Betting Markets,” Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, Spring 2004, pp. 127-141.)
The power of the betting markets in assimilating the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically. Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.
The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.
Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.
Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.
Follow the Money
The assumption, or at least the hypothesis, must be that the accuracy of the betting markets is created out of the information and intuition of many people rather than the conclusions of a few. Those myriad people feed in the best information and intuition they can because their own financial rewards depend directly upon them. And it really is a case of “follow the money” because those who know the most are likely to bet the most.
Moreover, the lower the transaction costs (there is no tax on betting in the UK) and information costs (in never more plentiful supply due to the Internet) the more efficient we might expect betting markets to become in translating information today into forecasts of tomorrow. The rise in the importance of person-to-person betting exchanges like Betfair offers another reason why the markets are becoming ever more efficient in predicting the future. These exchanges differ from traditional betting markets by eliminating the odds-setting bookmaker, instead providing the technology to match up the best offers to back and lay an outcome on offer from all the clients of the exchange. In so doing they ensure that the margins implicit in the odds are lower than they have ever been. For all these reasons, betting markets today are likely to provide better forecasts than they have done at any time in history.
Buoyed by this enthusiasm for the power of market forces I was sufficiently confident, when asked by The Economist magazine, to call the winner and the seat majority in the 2005 British General Election over two weeks out. My prediction of a 60-seat majority for the Labour Party, repeated in an interview on the BBC Today program was challenged in a BBC World Service debate with the chairman of the MORI polling organization. He wanted to bet me that his figure of a Labour majority of over 100 was a better estimate. I declined the bet and saved him some money. The Labour majority was a little over 60 seats.
In October of this year The Economist ran a follow-up article on election betting, asking me the likely outcome of the British General Election if Prime Minister Gordon Brown, then actively considering his options, decided to ask the Queen for the requisite dissolution of Parliament. After consulting the markets, I declared his odds of a majority just slightly better than even. “So,” I asked, “is the Prime Minister willing to risk his majority on the toss of a coin?” The answer was no.
Low-Volume and Play-Money Exchanges
This is not to say that all betting markets are always right. The Iowa Electronic Markets have been allowing selective trading for modest amounts of money on their exchange since 1988, with some success. Nevertheless, their odds were far off the mark in the 2000 election, predicting that Mr. Bush would win a larger share of the popular vote than Mr. Gore (meanwhile, the real-money “spread betting markets,” available to significant trading volume in the UK, had the electoral winner priced up as a dead-heat). Moreover, the Iowa markets failed to predict the Republican victory in the Senate in the mid-term elections in 2002 and have struggled to maintain their foothold at the top end of predictive accuracy since the rise of the high-volume exchanges. Perhaps this is because Iowa’s markets keep bets to a small size, which puts less pressure on traders to get their predictions right. Perhaps it’s a blip. Time will tell and these low-volume markets, as well as play-money exchanges such as Newsfutures, continue to command respect.
Forecasting elections is not simply a matter of comparing the accuracy of polls with betting markets, however. There is a sizeable literature on the value of econometric models, which take account of such factors as employment, inflation, interest rates, incumbency, in predicting election outcomes. Other methodologies include various ways of weighting the opinions of political scientists, political journalists, political pundits and experts of other stripes, in forecasting the winners and losers.
In my book, Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets, published in 2005 by Cambridge University Press, I employed a blind “moment-in-time” case study, conducted exactly a month before the 2004 U.S. presidential election, to compare and contrast the forecasts implicit in each method. I was left with least confidence in econometric models and most in betting markets, which is what I expected.
One interesting angle, though, is whether a combination of one or more of these methodologies, weighted in one way or another, can do better than any individual forecasting methodology. Just as interesting is the extent to which the accuracy of forecasts derived from election betting markets is affected by altering the structure of the market. For example, is the accuracy of these forecasts affected by the nature of rewards within these markets — whether participants use their own money or “play money” to make trades in the prediction market; is it for example affected by whether artificial limits are placed on the amount of money used by market participants to trade? More generally, to what extent is the accuracy of forecasts derived from election prediction markets affected by altering the structure of the prediction market?
The bottom line, therefore, is not to assume that betting markets provide all the answers, though sometimes it seems like they do. We must always be looking to improve our predictions. And when the markets do fail, we must not be afraid to ask why. When these prediction markets succeed, we must also ask why, and whether they could do even better.
These questions and more are at the forefront of two new journals, published by the University of Buckingham Press, namely The Journal of Prediction Markets and The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.
On recent evidence, then, some markets have seemed so powerful in predicting election outcomes that one might be forgiven for bothering to turn out to vote at all. Of course, that makes no sense. What does make sense, however, is that political operatives need to pay more attention to the markets in planning their election strategy. If those close to Mr. Kerry had listened to this advice in 2004, the senator from Massachusetts would in my convinced opinion now be President Kerry. Any sophisticated campaign needs to make sure that it doesn’t repeat that mistake.
For those who want to know more, the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, now linked to the newly-formed Political Forecasting Unit at the same institution, is just an e-mail (leighton.vaughan-williams@ntu.ac.uk) away.
In conclusion, recent years have witnessed groundbreaking shifts in the way in which betting is taxed, regulated and perceived by economic theorists. This means that betting markets will become more than just a major part of our future. Properly utilized they will be able to tell us what that future is likely to be! We seem therefore to have created, almost by accident, a “high-tech” crystal ball that taps into the accumulated expertise of mankind and makes it available to all. The challenge now is to make the best use of it.
Copyright © 2007 POLLING REPORT, INC.
CNN Ambush Debate. CNN Plants Liberal Ambush-Bait Questions.
CNN Crap News Network | 11/28/2007 | Me
Posted on 11/28/2007 9:41:45 PM EST by Porterville
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1932023/posts
Wow, I’m really offended that anyone could *suggest*, much less *say outright*, that the media are just a bunch of partisan shills.
Reasons given for prosecutors firings
AP on Yahoo | 3/6/07 | The Associated Press
Posted on 03/06/2007 7:35:39 PM EST by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1796367/posts
How The NYT Covered Reno’s 1993 Firing Of All US Attorneys
Sweetness & Light | March 24, 1993 | David Johnston
Posted on 03/13/2007 3:09:53 PM EDT by Sam Hill
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1800258/posts
“Attorney General Janet Reno today demanded the prompt resignation of all United States Attorneys, leading the Federal prosecutor in the District of Columbia to suggest that the order could be tied to his long-running investigation of Representative Dan Rostenkowski, a crucial ally of President Clinton.”
Tancredo Scuttle
(Tom Tancredo drops out tomorrow, endorsement up-in-the-air)
The Atlantic | December 19, 2007 | Marc Ambinder
Posted on 12/19/2007 4:18:07 PM EST by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941901/posts
Analysis: Dems Lose Key Policy Debates
AP via SFGate | 12/19/07 | Anne Flaherty, Associated Press Writer
Posted on 12/19/2007 11:43:06 AM EST by SmithL
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941759/posts
[snip] Even though public opinion is overwhelmingly on their side, Democrats are winding up the year with little accomplished on the military and foreign policy issues that helped propel them to power in the last election. [end]
Democrats offer little to choose from
South Florida Sun-Sentinel | December 9, 2007 Issue | Ben Waldman
Posted on 12/06/2007 10:03:18 PM EST by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1935943/posts
History Says Pick Clinton, Thompson
U.S. News & World Report | December 06, 2007 | Paul Bedard
Posted on 12/06/2007 9:12:01 PM EST by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/1935921/posts
More “Defeats” For George Bush
Townhall | December 3, 2007 | Rich Galen, Sr. Advisor to Fred Thompson
Posted on 12/04/2007 1:44:20 AM EST by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934353/posts
Dean: Americans Don’t Want Another Bush Term
democrats.org
Posted on 12/13/2007 11:52:33 AM EST by Sub-Driver
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938973/posts
Edwards ‘Love Child’ Story a Christmas Present from Hillary?
American Thinker | December 19, 2007 | Rick Moran
Posted on 12/19/2007 12:04:45 PM EST by IrishMike
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1941775/posts
Obama: I deserve a tax increase...
(than elect to pay more and leave my wallet alone)
Cnn via Drudge | November 11, 2007
Posted on 11/11/2007 6:52:08 PM EST by enough_idiocy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1924327/posts
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