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Keyword: treasury

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  • This One Market Measure Has A Perfect Track Record For Predicting US Recessions

    07/08/2014 6:11:42 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 07/08/2014 | Sam Ro
    There are very few market indicators that can predict recessions without sending out false positives. The yield curve is one of them. At a breakfast earlier today, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Kleintop noted that the yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years. "That is seven out of seven times — a perfect forecasting track record," he reiterated. The yield curve is inverted when short-term interest rates (e.g. the 3-year Treasury) are higher than long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-year Treasury yield). "The yield curve inversion usually takes place about 12 months before the start...
  • Exclusive: U.S. lawmakers probe Treasury unit's hiring, will object to Obama nominee

    06/03/2014 1:21:05 AM PDT · by blueplum · 1 replies
    Reuters ^ | June 3, 2014 3:51am EDT | EMILY FLITTER AND BRETT WOLF
    (Reuters) - Two powerful congressmen have opened separate inquiries into whether a Department of the Treasury bureau charged with policing money laundering may have flouted federal hiring rules, including regulations that require military veterans be given preference for government jobs. :snip: Reuters reported on May 2 that the Treasury had temporarily suspended FinCEN’s hiring authority and forced it to rescind 11 job offers after a federal government labor watchdog determined that the bureau had illegally screened candidates in a quest to hire only lawyers for certain positions. :snip: "The fact that FinCEN allegedly rejected pools of candidates made up of...
  • Russia Dumps 20% Of Treasury Holdings, Mystery "Belgium" Buyer Adds Another $40 Billion

    05/15/2014 10:02:41 AM PDT · by tcrlaf · 22 replies
    Zerohedge ^ | 5-15-2014 | Tyler Durden
    Back in mid-March, there was a brief scare after the start of the Ukraine conflict, when Fed custody holdings plunged by a record $104.5 billion (if promptly bouncing back the following week), leading many to believe that Russia may have dumped its Treasurys, or at least change its bond custodian. We noted that we wouldn't have a definitive answer until the May TIC number came out to know for sure how much Russia had sold, or if indeed, anything. Moments ago the May TIC numbers did come out, and as expected, Russia indeed dumped a record $26 billion, or some...
  • US Pays Half Of Gazprom's Overdue Invoice With $1 Billion Ukraine Loan Guarantee

    04/14/2014 8:00:00 AM PDT · by tcrlaf · 43 replies
    Zerohedge ^ | 3-14-2014 | Tyler Durden
    With Ukraine no longer paying for Russian gaz, and with Gazprom making it clear Kiev has to a) first pay the overdue $2+ billion in invoice and then b) prepay some $5 billion in gas until the end of the year of Europe gets it, it was only a matter of time before the US Treasury stepped in and paid off part or all of Gazprom's demands. That time is now, when moments ago Jack Lew announced a $1 billion loan guarantee for Ukraine - very much the same way that the US provided billions in loan guarnatees for the...
  • Shakedown: Treasury seizing tax refunds from adult children to pay parents' Social Security debts

    04/11/2014 12:33:11 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 60 replies
    Hotair ^ | 04/11/2014 | AllahPundit
    When I say “debts,” I don’t mean loans that the parents willingly sought from SSA. It would be bad enough to hold a kid responsible for that (since when are children responsible for their parents’ obligations?), but at least it would have been voluntarily incurred by mom/dad. The “debts” here are overpayments of Social Security benefits, the product of SSA’s own errors. The parents who received them might not have even realized they were getting money they weren’t supposed to have. And now, somehow, it’s junior’s problem.But wait. It gets worse. When [Mary] Grice was 4, back in 1960, her...
  • Exclusive: U.S. to require casinos to vet high rollers' funds - sources

    03/26/2014 11:55:52 AM PDT · by Oldeconomybuyer · 9 replies
    Reuters ^ | March 26, 2014 | BY BRETT WOLF
    U.S. casinos may soon have to vet where their high rollers' funds come from under a requirement being developed by the U.S. Treasury Department, according to two people familiar with the matter. The move is part of a push to address longstanding regulatory and law enforcement concerns that criminals can use casinos, which have not historically been as closely monitored as banks for compliance with anti-money laundering laws, to convert proceeds of crime into money that appears clean. Under current law, casinos are required to report suspicious activity. A customer who used a large sum of cash to buy chips,...
  • Treasury didn't check for legal authority before delaying Obamacare mandate

    03/20/2014 6:07:30 PM PDT · by Libloather · 15 replies
    Washington Examiner ^ | 3/20/14 | Joel Gehrke
    Treasury Department officials didn't check to make sure they had the legal authority to delay an Obamacare mandate before issuing guidance that flouted the text of the law, a department official told House investigators. Treasury Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy Mark Mazur, who announced the employer mandate delay in a blog post, told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that he didn't remember anyone considering the legal basis for the delay. "Did anyone in the Department of the Treasury inquire into the legal authority for the delays?" Mazur was asked. "I don't recall anything along those lines, no," he...
  • US Treasury Adds Digital Currency Representative to Advisory Group

    03/18/2014 10:42:53 AM PDT · by Errant · 33 replies
    Coin Desk ^ | 18 March 2014 | Pete Rizzo
    At the latest Bloomberg Breakfast event held in New York on 18th March, David S Cohen, Under Secretary of the US Department of the Treasury, discussed the challenges of digital currencies as part of a broader conversation with the media outlet’s Matt Miller to air on Bloomberg TV. In the hour-long talk, Cohen spoke about the organisation’s role as a global leader in educating consumers and governments on the evolving issue, paying a particular interest to the potential illicit uses of digital currencies, as well as the measures it is willing to take to ensure their proper use. Most notably,...
  • What Did Obama Tell Geithner about S&P?

    02/25/2014 6:22:42 AM PST · by afraidfortherepublic · 10 replies
    Wall Street Journal ^ | 2-25-24 | James Freeman
    Last month we wrote about the threatening phone call from then-Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner to the head of the parent company of Standard & Poor's after S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating in 2011. Now we learn that Mr. Geithner placed the call to McGraw Hill Chairman and CEO Harold McGraw III just five minutes after leaving an Oval Office meeting with President Barack Obama. This detail, drawing on information contained in Mr. Geithner's public schedule, was included late yesterday in a filing by S&P in federal court in the Central District of California. The Department of Justice...
  • Who Owns The Federal Reserve?

    02/09/2014 7:58:51 AM PST · by Errant · 77 replies
    Market Oracle, UK ^ | 9 February 2014 | Ellen_Brown
    The Federal Reserve (or Fed) has assumed sweeping new powers in the last year. In an unprecedented move in March 2008, the New York Fed advanced the funds for JPMorgan Chase Bank to buy investment bank Bear Stearns for pennies on the dollar. The deal was particularly controversial because Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, sits on the board of the New York Fed and participated in the secret weekend negotiations.1 In September 2008, the Federal Reserve did something even more unprecedented, when it bought the world’s largest insurance company. The Fed announced on September 16 that it was giving an...
  • Treasury Dept Accuses Iran of Working with Al Qaeda: Obama Rejects Sanctions

    02/07/2014 8:34:47 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 6 replies
    FrontPage Mag ^ | 02/07/2014 | Daniel Greenfield
    This is coming from inside Obama’s own administration. It’s not Dick Cheney or Donald Rumsfeld talking. And still Obama insists on pandering to Iran, letting it go nuclear and accusing skeptics of seeking war. The Obama administration charged that Tehran has allowed senior al Qaeda members operating from Iranian soil to facilitate the movement of Sunni fighters into Syria.The allegation by the Treasury Department on Thursday would suggest that elements of Iran’s government or military were at least tacitly supporting the opposing sides of Syria’s civil war.Iranian officials denied the accusations, saying Washington was harming diplomatic efforts aimed at ending...
  • The New Debt Ceiling Deadline Is Going To Be Earlier Than We Thought

    01/23/2014 12:15:55 PM PST · by Brown Deer · 33 replies
    Business Insider ^ | Jan 22, 2014 | Brett LoGiurato
    The U.S. is likely to exhaust its borrowing authority on the earlier side of what Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had estimated, he said in a letter to Congressional leaders on Wednesday. Lew warned in the new letter that Congress will likely need to raise the debt ceiling by late February to avoid a potential default on the country's obligations. As part of the bill to reopen the government in mid-October, the debt limit was suspended through Feb. 7. The Treasury can use so-called "extraordinary measures" after that point to keep borrowing and paying the nation's bills for a few weeks...
  • Bombshell sworn allegation against Tim Geithner

    01/22/2014 6:50:06 AM PST · by afraidfortherepublic · 32 replies
    The American Thinker ^ | 1-22-14 | Thomas Lifson
    If anyone thinks "Bridgegate" is an example of political bullying and abuse of power, then the sworn (under penalty of perjury) allegation of a corporate heavy hitter against Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner is off the charts. Bloomberg Businessweek reports: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told McGraw Hill Financial Inc. Chairman Harold W. McGraw III in 2011 that Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. debt would be met by a response, S&P said. S&P filed a declaration by McGraw yesterday in federal court in Santa Ana, California, as part of a request to force the U.S. to...
  • After 100 Years Of Failure, It's Time To End The Fed!

    12/15/2013 6:54:08 PM PST · by Errant · 142 replies
    The Market Oracle, UK ^ | 12/15/2013 | Dr. Ron Paul
    A week from now, the Federal Reserve System will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding. Resulting from secret negotiations between bankers and politicians at Jekyll Island, the Fed's creation established a banking cartel and a board of government overseers that has grown ever stronger through the years. One would think this anniversary would elicit some sort of public recognition of the Fed's growth from a quasi-agent of the Treasury Department intended to provide an elastic currency, to a de facto independent institution that has taken complete control of the economy through its central monetary planning. But just like the...
  • Why the Fed's 100th Birthday Could Be Its Last

    12/03/2013 8:30:16 AM PST · by Vigilanteman · 9 replies
    Money Morning ^ | Peter Krauth
    On December 23rd, the Federal Reserve will turn 100 years old. We can look back on its few successes... but its many failures far outweigh any positives it may have achieved. What's at stake now is the Fed's future. And it looks bleak. In fact, the Fed won't even exist in 100 years... America's First Three Central Banks Central banks and fiat money have been a major point of contention ever since the founding of America. Between 1775 and 1779, as the colonies delved deeper into rebellion, the fiat money supply grew by over 5,000%. Within just four years, the...
  • Treasury Forced to Issue $1T in New Debt in First 6 Weeks of FY14 - See more at:

    11/18/2013 4:00:03 PM PST · by Errant · 16 replies
    CNS News ^ | 18 November, 2013 | Terence P. Jeffrey
    Between Oct. 1, 2013, the first day of fiscal 2014, and Nov. 14—which was less than a month after Congress agreed to temporarily suspend the legal limit on the federal debt—the Treasury was forced to issue more than $1 trillion in new debt. During that time, according to the Daily Treasury Statement, the Treasury issued $1,014,215,000,000 in new bills, notes, bonds and other securities. The government needed this $1,014,215,000,000 to cover government obligations and expenses that exceeded the $255,080,000,000 it raked in through tax revenues during the same six-week period. Where did that combined $1,014,215,000,000 in newly borrowed money and...
  • Under Obama, Debt Has Increased $6 Trillion, Fed Balance Sheet Increased $2.78 Trillion

    10/09/2013 5:16:07 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 1 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 10/09/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    On September 17, 2008, the US total debt stood at $10.615 trillion and The Fed’s balance sheet was almost $1 trillion ($996 billion). Since that time, US total debt has skyrockets to … the statutory debt limit! That means that over President Obama’s Presidency (and the last couple of months of Bush’s Presidency), total debt climbs over $6 trillion. debtceilgst And The Fed’s balance sheet rose over $2.78 trillion. dcfeed With The Fed enabling massive Federal government waste (and Janet Yellen likely a willing enabler). Democrats and President Obama are refusing to negotiate on the budget or the debt ceiling....
  • I Hate When That Happens...

    10/09/2013 5:58:16 AM PDT · by SatinDoll · 6 replies
    The Market-ticker ^ | October 9, 2013 | Karl Denninger
    You know how it is, you're going along with the lies that are told every day about "recovery" and "economic conditions are kinda "OK" and "we're doing all right" and then the mainstream media and "economists" like Goldman's Alec Phillips step on their ***** and tell the truth by accident. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., IHS Inc. (IHS) and BNP Paribas SA said they expect the Treasury to husband the tax money it collects to make sure it can meet interest and principal payments on the nation’s debt. Other obligations, from salaries of government workers to payments to defense...
  • Shutdown Hinders Iran, Syria Sanctions Enforcement, Treasury Official Says

    10/03/2013 10:46:36 PM PDT · by Tailgunner Joe · 11 replies
    abcnews.go.com ^ | October 03, 2013 | Chris Good
    The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, responsible for enforcing economic and trade sanctions against Iran and Syria, is being hindered because it has been pared down to a “skeleton crew” by the government shutdown, a Treasury official tells ABC News. “This massively reduced staffing not only impairs OFAC’s ability to execute its mission, it also undermines [the Treasury Department's Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes] broader efforts to combat money laundering and illicit finance, protect the integrity of the U.S. financial system, and disrupt the financial underpinnings of our adversaries,” according to the official, who asked not...
  • Lew Op-Ed: U.S. Failure to Pay Bills Hurts Everyone

    10/04/2013 7:52:00 AM PDT · by b4its2late · 20 replies
    US Treasury ^ | 10/3/2013 Page Content ​ | US Treasury
    Lew Op-Ed: U.S. Failure to Pay Bills Hurts Everyone 10/3/2013 WASHINGTON – In an op-ed to be published in the October 4, 2013 edition of USA TODAY, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew discusses the importance of Congress raising the debt limit immediately to avoid self-inflicted wounds that could impede economic growth and create uncertainty for families and businesses. The text of the piece follows: U.S. failure to pay bills hurts everyone If Congress does not raise the debt limit soon, seniors, veterans, kids, among others, are at risk. By Jack Lew It might be hard to believe, but there is...
  • Treasury taking final steps to avoid default

    10/02/2013 1:00:19 PM PDT · by GraceG · 20 replies
    Politico ^ | 10/2/2013 | M J Lee
    The Treasury Department has begun using the last set of accounting maneuvers at its disposal to allow the government to keep paying its bills until Congress raises the country’s borrowing limit, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told congressional leaders Tuesday night. In a letter, Lew reiterated that if the debt ceiling is not raised by Oct. 17 the government will not be able to meet all its financial commitments, such as making payments to U.S. debt holders, government contractors and Social Security recipients “If we have insufficient cash on hand, it would be impossible for the United States of America to...
  • Federal Gov’t Shuts Down, Stocks and Treasury Yields Rise, Gold Dives (Auction High Yield Spikes)

    10/01/2013 11:28:22 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 5 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 10/01/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    So much for the scare mongering. The Federal government shut down (or 40% of it) and the reaction in the Dow? Up 52 points as of 2:15pm EST. dow100113 The US Treasury 10 year rate also rose by 3.6 basis points. ust10100113 Gold? Dropped like a rock, but has risen slightly. gold100113 And a today’s 4 Week Treasury Bills Auction High Yield spiked. 4mthigh100113 So much for the “flight to quality” meme from the government shutdown.
  • Treasury Puts a Date on When Cash May Run Out: Oct. 17

    09/25/2013 10:56:36 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 14 replies
    New York Times ^ | 09/25/2013 | Annie Lowrey
    <p>WASHINGTON — The Treasury will only have $30 billion of cash on hand by mid-October, putting the United States on the precipice of an unprecedented default, the department said on Wednesday.</p> <p>The warning puts additional pressure on a hamstrung Congress, which is already struggling to prevent the federal government from shutting down over a budget impasse on Oct. 1.</p>
  • Treasury Secretary: Markets too calm about debt ceiling

    09/24/2013 5:51:01 PM PDT · by Nachum · 9 replies
    cnn ^ | 9/24/13 | Hibah Yousuf
    While stocks have slipped for four consecutive days as investors turn their attention to Washington and the looming debt limit, the S&P 500 and Dow are just 2% from the all-time highs reached last week. In addition to the muted market action, a key metric for measuring market fear and volatility, the VIX (VIX), is indicating calm markets. While CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index has ticked just slightly into "Fear" mode, from neutral earlier in the week. "I think if you look at the calm out there, it's a bit greater than it should be," Lew said at the Bloomberg...
  • Deer In Headlights: Markets Trend Downwards After Fed’s Confusing Taper .. Or No Taper

    09/24/2013 3:05:05 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 1 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/24/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The markets were stunned by The Fed’s decision last week not to begin tapering. Investors reacted … like deer in the headlights. deerheads Take the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After initial optimism on The Fed’s “No Taper” message, it has turned down. djiapostfomce The 10 year Treasury yield dropped with The Fed announcement and has continued to drift downwards. ust10postfomc As would be expected, both mortgage rates (yellow) and the Fannie Mae 30 year current coupon rate have drifted downwards. mtgratepostfomc Gold? Gold prices surged initially but had drifted downwards to about pre-announcement levels. goldpostfomc The good news? Both the...
  • Janet Yellen And The Weak Money Parade (Money Multiplier And Velocity At All-time Lows)

    09/22/2013 4:51:14 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 32 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/22/2013 | 09/22/2013
    Poor Larry Summers. He withdrew his candidacy as the Federal Reserve Board Chairman over fears of a brutal Senate confirmation hearing. Now we are left with former University of California labor economist Janet Yellen as the leading candidate. Yellen was (allegedly) the architect of the quantitative easing programs to reduce unemployment (better known as the weak money rally). And Yellen is the darling of the labor unions because of her activist policies on labor. Hence, President Obama and Democrats are proudly supporting her appointment. “The philosophy of Janet Yellen is activism of government policy to achieve objectives,” said Allen Sinai,...
  • Janet Yellen And The Weak Money Parade (Money Multiplier And Velocity At All-time Lows)

    09/21/2013 9:06:10 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 15 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/21/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Poor Larry Summers. He withdrew his candidacy as the Federal Reserve Board Chairman over fears of a brutal Senate confirmation hearing. Now we are left with former University of California labor economist Janet Yellen as the leading candidate. Yellen was (allegedly) the architect of the quantitative easing programs to reduce unemployment (better known as the weak money rally). And Yellen is the darling of the labor unions because of her activist policies on labor. “The philosophy of Janet Yellen is activism of government policy to achieve objectives,” said Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc. Oh great. We have activist...
  • Bernanke’s Bluff: Global Sovereign Yields Plummet (UK, Italy, Greece), Gold And Silver Rise

    09/19/2013 12:02:45 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 5 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/19/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Bernanke’s surprise (NO TAPER) resulted in a large decline in the 10 year Treasury yield yesterday and a small rebound today. ust10091913 But despite the surprise, the yield curve has declined only slightly compared to its increase after May 1st. yc091813 World bond markets are in a sea of green, particularly the UK and Italy. Even beleaguered Greece dropped 21 basis points in 10 year sovereign yield. wbm091913 Precious metals (gold, silver) soared on The Fed’s Taper bluff. goldsilvfed2 To quote The Who, “We won’t get fooled again!”
  • Fed Lowers GDP Growth and Investors Celebrate! Dow Rises 147 Points (Government Cronies Win)

    09/18/2013 3:01:55 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 7 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/18/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its update to QE: no change. The market was expecting $5 billion to be cuts from Treasury purchases, but nada. fedannouince Here is the redlined FOMC statement: 169179285-September-FOMC-Redline The Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing the $85 billion pace of monthly bond buying, saying it needs to see more evidence of improvement in the economy. “The Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today at the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Washington. While “downside risks”...
  • Fed Lowers GDP Growth and Investors Celebrate! Dow Rises 147 Points (Government Cronies Win)

    09/18/2013 11:22:27 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/18/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its update to QE: no change. The market was expecting $5 billion to be cuts from Treasury purchases, but nada. fedannouince The Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing the $85 billion pace of monthly bond buying, saying it needs to see more evidence of improvement in the economy. “The Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today at the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Washington. While “downside risks” to the outlook have diminished, “the tightening...
  • To Taper Or Not To Taper: That Is The Fed’s Question (Rising Home Prices, Falling Participation)

    09/17/2013 10:11:57 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/17/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow with an announcement tomorrow afternoon at 2pm EST. Virtually no one is expecting a change in the Fed Funds Target. fedconsesn What everyone is watching is a change in the Fed rate of purchase of Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-backed Securities. 20130917_FOMC If The Fed does nothing, I will be surprised. The most likely “taper” is $5-10 million per month, mostly or all in Treasuries. Agency MBS purchases are likely to remain unchanged. While there is some positive momentum in the economy, real median household income is declining. household-income-monthly-median-growth-since-2000 (1)...
  • Daunting Gap? Homebuilder Index Biggest Miss To Expectations Since April With Rising Mortgage Rates

    09/17/2013 8:37:14 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/17/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The “Goodbye Larry! (Summers)” Treasury yield decline yesterday was short lived. After Summer pulled out as a candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman, the US Treasury 10 year yield fell 11 basis points yesterday morning, but the exuberance quickly went away. ust10091713. Speaking of interest rates, the National Association of Home Builders Market Index was flat for September compared to August, but missed expectations by the most since April. nahbhbindex09171`3 If we compare the NAHB Index with new home sales, we see a daunting gap between builder “optimism” and reality. nahbnhs091713. And if we include the Bankrate 30 year rate, we...
  • Consumer Confidence Fall To Lowest Point In 5 Months As Interest Rates Rise

    09/13/2013 9:47:37 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/13/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Rising interest rates are really starting to hit the economy. The Reuters – University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment was forecast to be 82.0 but printed at 76.8 after a previous print of 82.1. This is the lowest print in 5 months. Rising Treasury and mortgage rates are definitely a cause of declining consumer confidence. Notice that the 10 year Treasury yield began to decline in mid 2011 and consumer confidence began to rise (green box). Then Treasury rates began rising on May 1st and consumer confidence fell (red box). With a lag. consumerconfid091313 We know that mortgage...
  • Socialism Kills: 8 Headwinds For Economy, Housing and Mortgage Markets Thanks To Socialism

    09/04/2013 6:47:17 PM PDT · by whitedog57
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/04/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The US economy is straying further and further away from a free-market model and towards a government-controlled, crony economy. We can see the results of the move to government control of the economy in the headwinds. Like in the movie “Idiocracy” where the government orders Brawndo, a green liquid that resembles Gatorade, be used instead of water for crops, the government’s solution to all problems is more government, more regulation, more taxes, etc. Government is what statists crave. Brawndo_Social_Head (1) Here is a partial list (the actual list is way too long) of headwinds facing the economy, the housing market...
  • Sea Of Red (Yields): Sovereign Rates Rise As Fed Debates Tapering

    09/04/2013 12:09:17 PM PDT · by whitedog57
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/04/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Come with me, you the sea of … red. Almost every major nation has seen its 10 year sovereign yields rise today … and over the past 6 months. seofred The US 10 year has climbed over 100 basis points in the last 6 months, close to the UK’s rise. Our Latin American neighbors, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia have seen over 132 basis point increases. Americans spending more on cars and housing helped the economy maintain a “modest to moderate” pace of expansion from early July through late August, even as borrowing costs increased, the Federal Reserve said today. The...
  • Gov't/Fed Controlled Mortgage Market Continues To Decline (Thanks Bernanke and Obama!)

    09/04/2013 7:24:12 AM PDT · by whitedog57
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/04/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    As I mentioned in my Pew interview, this isn’t your mother’s housing recovery. Over stimulus by The Fed (low rate policies) and national homeownership policies encouraging lenders to expand credit backfired badly. Want further articulation? According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey of lenders, mortgage applications rose 1.32% from the previous week. mbaind090413 However, mortgage purchase applications fell 0.42% from the previous week. The MBA’s 30 year effective rate is in pink. The MBA’s 30 year effective rate decline slightly from the previous week. mbapurch09013 On a non seasonally adjusted basis, mortgage purchase applications fell 2.72%...
  • US Treasury 10 Year Yield Spikes Most In Two Month (Unrealized Gains For Banks Back to 2010)

    09/03/2013 8:23:58 AM PDT · by whitedog57
    Confounded Interest ^ | 09/03/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Whether it is a sign of improving economy or worries about a Fed taper, the US Treasury 10 year yield spiked 12 basis points this morning. ust10090313 The yield spike was the most in 2 months. ust10since053 Also on the bad news side of the ledger, the Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (Weekly) – H.8 divulged that Net Unrealized Gains (Losses) On Available-For-Sale Securities, All Commercial Banks is dropping like a rock and is now in negative territory for the first time since 2010. netlossesh And if we chart the decline in net unrealized gains...
  • The Thrill Is Gone: 7 Year Treasury Auction Confirms Lack of Interest in US Government Debt

    08/29/2013 10:54:25 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 30 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/29/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The U.S. Treasury Department sold $29.000 billion of seven-year notes at a yield of 2.221 percent, as demand fell relative to the last auction of securities with the same maturity. ust7auc The bid/cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing the number of bids to the amount of securities sold, fell to 2.43 from 2.54 at the last seven-year note sale, indicating weaker demand. The bid/cover ratio was the lowest since 2.26 at the May 2009, auction. 7ybdrat The same occurred at the last 10 year auction of Treasury debt. Again. back to 2009 levels. bidcover333 Indirect bidder participation (which includes...
  • Syria Response Muscular Enough Not To Be Mocked = Rising Sovereign Rates

    08/28/2013 10:56:40 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 7 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/28/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    After the pounding of war drums along The Potomac for the past several days, The Hill had this interesting piece: “Official: White House seeks Syria response ‘just muscular enough not to get mocked’“ “just enough to be more than symbolic.” Like an iPod filled with President Obama’s speeches like he gave to Queen Elizabeth. You know, just enough to be more than symbolic. Apparently, the perception in the investor community is a collective sigh of relief. Global sovereign yields rose today indicating that investors pulled out of the Treasury markets. wbm082813 And the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 78...
  • Mr Bean and Mr Ben: Statist Central Bankers Promise To Keep Interest Rates Low, Even If Fed Tapers

    08/25/2013 11:17:18 AM PDT · by whitedog57
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/25/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Statist central bankers plan to devalue their respective currencies and risk inflation even if The Fed tapers. Since Central Banks compete with each other, low rate pressures should keep US Treasury rates in line. Central bankers from Japan and the U.K. predicted their new campaigns to encourage expansion will work, sustaining support for global growth even as the Federal Reserve considers a reduction in stimulus. As the annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, drew to a close yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said his souped-up asset-buying “has started to exert effects” on the...
  • Bank of Japan and Bank of England Claim They Can Counter Fed Tapering (Kuroda-Bean at Jackson Hole)

    08/25/2013 9:30:51 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 1 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/25/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    There are more rumblings from the Jackson Hole central banker party going on in Wyoming. Central bankers from Japan and the U.K. predicted their new campaigns to encourage expansion will work, sustaining support for global growth even as the Federal Reserve considers a reduction in stimulus. As the annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, drew to a close yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said his souped-up asset-buying “has started to exert effects” on the world’s third-largest economy. Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean said the U.K.’s pledge this month to avoid raising...
  • Stanford’s Taylor Suggests Ending QE Earlier, Hall Claims Little Evidence That It Worked

    08/24/2013 1:04:38 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 4 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/24/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Stanford University economist John Taylor feels that ‘Sooner the Better’ for Fed to unwind quantitative easing. Here is Taylor’s take on the first day of the Jackson Hole party. According to Taylor, academics outside the Fed revealed considerable skepticism about the effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing and forward guidance programs. Of course Fed officials did not express the same doubts. The first paper was by Bob Hall. It argued that neither quantitative easing nor forward guidance was effective, or as he put it, “Both quantitative easing and forward guidance, as implemented by the Fed, are obviously weak instruments.” He...
  • Fed Minutes: There Will Be Blood (Global Sovereign Yields Rise On Fed’s Hawkish Message)

    08/21/2013 11:32:28 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 1 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/21/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Here are the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Federal Reserve officials were “broadly comfortable” with Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s plan to start reducing bond buying later this year if the economy improves, with a few saying tapering might be needed soon, minutes of their last meeting show. In other words, it was a hawkish set of minutes pointing to tapering. The reaction in the US Treasury 10 year yield? ust10082113 And agency MBS prices fell about 12 basis points. mbs082113 And the globe is awash in blood (as in rising sovereign yields). wbm082113 Here is a photo of...
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls, Investors Bet Fed Tapering Postponed

    08/20/2013 7:35:09 AM PDT · by whitedog57
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/20/2013 | Anthony B. Sanfers
    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.10 for July. That is less than the expectation of -0.15 and a decline from the June reading of -0.13. But an improvement over the REVISED print of -0.23 for June. chci Thank goodness for revisions that make even a lousy print look positive! Stocks fell in Europe and Asia and oil led declines in commodities on speculation the Federal Reserve will curb bond purchases next month. U.S. equities were little changed and Treasuries advanced. The MSCI All Country World Index lost 0.5 percent to 369.20at 9:37 a.m. in New York, the...
  • Got ARMs? 10 Year Treasury Yield Rises 77% Since May (Mortgage Rates Up 32%)

    08/19/2013 12:42:37 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 3 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/19/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The 10 year Treasury yield has risen 77% since May 2nd. ust10081913a And mortgage rates (Bankrate 30yr Fixed-rate) are up 32% since May 2nd. t10b30081913 As refinancing volumes plummet, lenders are trying to extend the home financing boom by pitching adjustable-rate mortgages to borrowers, harkening back to the pre-crisis boom years. Applications for adjustable-rate loans now make up 6% of mortgage loan requests, up from 3% at the beginning of the year, though still well below the 32% peak in 2004, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Choosing an adjustable-rate mortgage would seem counterintuitive when interest rates are rising. But...
  • The Fed Omen: US Treasury 10 Year Yield Rises To Highest Level In 2 Years (Look at German Bonds!)

    08/16/2013 1:14:02 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 17 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/16/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The Treasury 10 year yield rose today to its highest level in 2 years. ust10081613 Now for the bad news: the Treasury 10 year yield is pulling from from the German 10 year Bund yield. treasybundso The rising 10 year Treasury will likely cause the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage to rise. treas10mort Here is a chart of fixed-rate, ARM versus the 10 year Treasury. frmarmmay1 Got ARMs?
  • Oversight Committee: Administration Withheld Obamacare Documents; Committee leaders threaten

    08/15/2013 4:03:19 PM PDT · by Nachum · 15 replies
    Free Beacon ^ | 8/15/13 | Andrew Evans
    The House Oversight Committee slammed the Treasury Department on Thursday for withholding documents related to the committee’s investigation of the administration’s expansion of subsidies in the Obamacare exchanges. Committee chairman Rep. Darrell Issa (R., Calif.) and Health Care Subcommittee chairman James Lankford (R., Penn.) threatened in their letter to use legal force against the department if it does not turn over the documents by Aug. 29. The committee has been investigating for over a year the administration’s decision to expand subsidies to the federally run health insurance exchanges mandated by Obamacare. The 2010 law creates subsidies for insurance purchased on...
  • Danger Will Robinson! 6th Hindenburg Omen In 8 Days (As Fed St Louis’ Bullard Plans To Speak)

    08/14/2013 10:03:07 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 10 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/14/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Today has the dubious distinction of being the 6th Hindenburg Omen in eight days. hindfed The New York Stock Exchange has seen a massive rise in its index since Quantitative Easing began. nyafed All eyes are on St Louis Fed President James Bullard for hints on tapering at 3:15pm EST today. Chances are he will say the same things as The Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart. Like the raptors in “Jurassic Park,” The Fed board members are doing coordinated attack patterns to signal their taper intentions. Raptors-in-Jurassic-Park--002 Both the US Treasury yield and dollar swaps curves are upward sloping indicating that rates...
  • Addicted To Fed: Retail Sales Rise, Treasury 10yr Yield Jumps Nearly 10 Basis Points

    08/13/2013 9:40:43 AM PDT · by whitedog57 · 2 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/13/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    Global sovereign yields jumped almost 10 basis points (except for Greece). wbm081313 And as of 11am EST, the US Treasury 10 year yield rose almost 9 basis points as retail sales rose in July for a fourth consecutive month. ust10081313 The US Treasury yield curve steepened (of course, it looks like the Treasury 10 year yield increase since the short-end of the curve is low and seemingly constant). 102081313 The Fannie Mae 3.0% agency MBS continues its fall from May 1, 2013. I reach a plateau since mid July but may start falling again. fannie3081313 And the Dow Jones is...
  • Treasury Auction: 6 Months Bid/Cover Separating From 10yr and 30yr (Expecting Fed To Taper)

    08/12/2013 12:14:34 PM PDT · by whitedog57 · 1 replies
    Confounded Interest ^ | 08/12/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders
    The US Treasury auction went off better than last week’s 10 and 30 year auctions. ta36mth Particularly with regard to the bid/cover ratios. The 6 month bid/cover remains at 5.01 while the 10 year and 30 year are lower and at their 2nd lowest point since early 2009 when QE1 began. This is indicating that there are fears that The Fed will slow down the taper of $88 billion per month in Agency MBS and Treasury purchases. But at the long- and mid-section of the yield curve, not the short-end. Here is a chart of Expected Future Outcomes and Most...