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FreeRepublic.com "A Conservative News Forum" [ Browse | Search | Topics | Post Article | My Comments ] Click to scroll to commentary.Today's Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) Quote - Bush Starting to Take Off, gets $2 bump from Berger!Iowa Electronic Markets ^ Pres04_WTA 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market TOPICS: Historically, the IEM has been more accurate than polls since the IEM started in 1988. The IEM has forecasted election results with great accuracy, tracking the vote totals of winning candidates of the last two presidential elections within TWO-TENTHS of a percentage point.

The daily tracking polls covering the Allard/Strickland race have taken a strange turn over the last few days. The Rocky Mountain News poll (Talmey-Drake) now shows Allard with a 4 point lead, representing a 8 point swing from late last week. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_1511556,00.html The Denver Post poll (Ciruli) has gone in the opposite direction. Allard, up 8 points on October 24 has fallen to a 2 point lead. http://www.ciruli.com/polls/tracking02.htm I have maintained that Ciruli has a better history of accuracy so I am concerned about the GOP decline in his poll. Both polls have shown significant fluctuation (especially for a tracking...