Free Republic

Jul 02, 202007:49 Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.

President Trump is betting big on the primaries. With no serious challengers for the Republican Party nomination and high approval numbers among the GOP’s rank and file, Trump could have cruised through the spring campaign season like most incumbent presidents do. Instead, he traveled to 18 states for campaign rallies and spent more than $155 million to rack up high primary-vote totals for a nomination he had no chance of losing. “I don’t remember any uncontested primary campaign for a sitting president like this,” Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth told The Post. “People don’t normally turn out in large...

Archaeologists have uncovered a large ancient cemetery in Kenya that sheds new light on the area’s early culture. Researchers from Stony Brook University and the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History discovered the graveyard, described as the earliest and largest monumental cemetery in Eastern Africa. The find at the Lothagam North Pillar Site near Lake Turkana has surprised experts, offering new details of the ancient herders that used the cemetery. “This group is believed to have had an egalitarian society, without a stratified social hierarchy,” the researchers wrote in a statement. “Thus their construction of such a...

Once-obscure political science professor Helmut Norpoth is now basking in the sweet glow of success — and newfound fame — after confidently predicting way back in February that Donald Trump was virtually guaranteed to win the 2016 presidential election. Norpoth, a faculty member at Stony Brook University, announced his prognostication that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton some 262 days ago. He asserted a confidence level of 97 percent in what he calls the Primary Model, he said. On Tuesday, the professor’s prophecy was proven right. Voter intent doesn’t matter, he said. Instead, the things that really matter are excitement among...

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a...

Crystal Fleming believes that most Americans breath psychotic "anti-blackness" and that the entire human species might be "unwell." Fleming is an "Assistant Professor of Sociology and Africana Studies at Stony Brook University." According to Fleming, American culture, and perhaps the entire human species, is "mentally and socially unwell and has been profoundly unwell for generations." This illness can be seen in Americans' treatment of race in the United States. Fleming argues that "anti-blackness is psychotic" and it is something that "most Americans breathe:" On her twitter profile, Fleming has made several racially charged statements, such as saying that the ""Nation...

The “Smithsonian” magazine compiled a list of the “100 most significant Americans,” and to the dismay of his fan base President Obama failed to make the cut. Adding insult to injury, former President George W. Bush made the list. But it gets even better, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was also included. The liberal website Raw Story bemoaned the very idea that the Smithsonian Institution “decided that George W. Bush is a more ‘significant’ figure in U.S. history” than the exalted one. Curiously, the only redeeming qualification Raw Story named when mentioning Obama is that he was the country’s first...