Free Republic

Well, now that I have your attention --- After seeing Townhall's headliner this morning: Final CNN Poll: Deadlocked at 49, Despite D+11 Sample I started thinking why over sample Dems? Does the 11 mean 11% or just 11 more Dems? What's the justification for over sampling anyway? GOP and DEM ranks aren't so disproportionate (Conservative and Liberals are). Is it to normalize an election where more Democrats are expected to be voting (ground game stuff)? Do they adjust for oversampling or does over sampling just happen? Could it be that there is a tacit agreement in place between media and...

Once you know the secret behind a magic trick, it loses its appeal.No matter how carefully crafted, no matter how spectacular the effect, no matter how much skill goes into its design, once you see the wires, or know where the secret compartment is, the trick stops being magic and becomes nothing more than engineering.The trick the Obama campaign has executed beautifully this month is to demoralize and dismay the GOP base. A combination of a very, very, very heavy TV buy in swing states (pay attention, because this is a rabbit they can't pull out every week), a...

How important is it for polling organizations to include the correct proportions of self-identified Republicans and Democrats in their polls? The short answer is: Extremely.In this hyper-partisan age, the partisan ratio can not only determine the poll’s top-line results, but also shape the ensuing media interpretation of what it all “means.” That interpretation defines the expectations game, which, in turn, affects fundraising, voter enthusiasm, and turnout.According to a spate of recent polls conducted by Marist/NBC News, Democrats hold strong or even commanding leads in three key U.S. Senate races: Florida (up 4 points), Virginia (up 6), and Ohio (up...

Without another Ann Selzer Iowa poll until the first of the year, the political class is now largely analyzing the caucuses through robo polls, internal campaign surveys and good old-fashioned anecdotal reporting.It's the first of these that gets the most attention - and sparks the most controversy.After the Democratic-aligned PPP - which has gotten some important races right -- posted their latest Iowa survey last night showing Ron Paul staking out a lead, the pushback quickly surfaced.At issue: whether PPP's sample is too heavy on Democrats and independents and is therefore skewing the results to make Paul seem stronger. (Any...

Move over, CBS. Hang up the kid-leather gloves, WaPo/ABC. There’s a new sample-skewing sheriff in town, and it’s the Associated Press. In a new definition of “outlier,” the AP reported that its latest poll from GfK Roper shows Barack Obama with a 60% approval rating in a survey of 1001 adults, with even his approval on the economy shooting past the 50% mark: President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit its highest point in two years — 60 percent — and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll taken...

The integrity of the United States Census may be at risk. That’s certainly what some Republicans are concerned about in the Obama era. For years, liberals have rightly pointed out that the decennial census undercounts certain groups — minorities, illegal immigrants, transients. An internal Census Bureau analysis from 2003 also determined that the last census overcounted whites and Asians. The liberals’ solution? Statistical sampling, in which census workers would study closely the populations of selected sample areas and use the resulting numbers to correct the numbers obtained by direct enumeration. Statistical sampling was a hot political issue in the late...

Who Counts?: The next U.S. census chief wants to count people who aren't there. The acting director wants to count people who shouldn't be here. And Acorn will help do the counting.Back when he was the Census Bureau's associate director of statistical design, Robert M. Groves, nominated to be the next director of the bureau, recommended that the 1990 census be statistically adjusted to correct an alleged undercount of minorities in urban areas — areas that tend to vote heavily Democratic. Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher overruled him, saying the use of "statistical sampling," as it's known, was a form of...

NEW YORK/LONDON (Billboard) - It's perfectly legal, but it will still seem to some listeners like the sound of someone making off with England's crown jewels. On rap collective Wu-Tang Clan's new single "The Heart Gently Weeps," a Santana-style rock guitar opening gives way to an almost celestial chorus of something very familiar. There, and throughout the track, is the unmistakable melody of George Harrison's timeless contribution to the Beatles' "White Album" from 1968: "While My Guitar Gently Weeps." Now, the track is accompanied by Wu-Tang's trademark, uncompromising language, rapping out a gritty street story, even as Harrison's son Dhani...

Asteroid sampling mission probably failed 16:01 07 December 2005 NewScientist.com news service Maggie McKee and AFP The Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa is likely to have failed in its landmark mission to collect the first-ever samples from an asteroid, mission officials said on Wednesday. It also faces trouble returning to Earth. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) had earlier said the Hayabusa probe "most probably" succeeded in gathering material from the Itokawa asteroid, 290 million kilometres from Earth, on 26 November. The spacecraft was thought to have landed on the space rock for just one second, firing two metal pellets to throw...

Many of you will be hearing the spin today about the Newsweek poll that suggests Kerry has erased Bush's lead. You can "pop up" the results of that poll here: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm and the web article discussing the results here: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/ I am going to present evidence that it is likely that there are problems with the sampling of the poll. If you navigate to the PollingReport.com page link above you will see the following quote included: "Sept. 30 interviewing limited to Pacific and Mountain time zones, after the presidential debate concluded." This poll was conducted over three nights, Sept. 30...

<p>WASHINGTON (AP) --  The Justice Department wants a federal judge to reverse a court decision that allowed the release of adjusted census figures supporters believe more accurately count minorities.</p> <p>Democrats on the House Government Reform Committee have no right to sue for the release of Census 2000 population tallies that were adjusted using statistical sampling, Justice lawyers said in a 25-page filing.</p>