Free Republic

Since last summer, Bob Dudley, the CEO of the British oil giant BP, has been cautioning that he expects oil prices to stay “lower for longer.” Now he believes he’s determined how much longer those prices may decline, and when they may start rising again. “A low point could be in the first quarter [of 2016],” Dudley said in an interview broadcast Saturday by the BBC. “But 2016’s third and fourth quarters could witness a more natural balance between supply and demand, after which stock levels could start to wear off.”

Armchair analysts have been predicting an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for a while now, and escalating tensions between the countries would seem to portend a major market disruption. But that war may never come. Saudi Arabia announced Monday that it will sever all commercial ties with Iran, a day after the kingdom said it would cut diplomatic relations with Iran. Protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran earlier Sunday, and the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, predicted "divine vengeance" for the Saudi execution of a major Shiite cleric. Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni and home...