Free Republic

In the seventh year of Barack Obama's administration, the economy is still getting failing grades that have been the hallmark of his trouble-filled presidency. While he continues to go about the country telling voters that his policies are working, this week's dreary economic data tell a far different story. The bleak headlines in the nation's major newspapers tell the story in its bluntest terms. "Stocks fall on disappointing economic data," said USA Today. "U.S. stocks fall on weak economic data," blares The Wall Street Journal, with this subhead: "Private payrolls rise less than expected in March, adding to concerns about...

The number of Americans 16 years and older who did not participate in the labor force—meaning they neither had a job nor actively sought one in the last four weeks—rose from 92,898,000 in February to 93,175,000 in March, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the first time the number of Americans out of the labor force has exceeded 93 million. Also from February to March, the labor force participation rate dropped from 62.8 percent to 62.7 percent, matching a 37-year low. Five times in the last twelve months, the participation rate has been...

Just as AAPL stock hits record highs and single-handedly rescues Q4 earnings from the doldrums, it appears President Obama is bringing his own brand of 'middle-class-economics' Robin-Hood-iness to crush the 'wealth generating' machine that has served America's 1% so well for so long. As AP reports, The White House plans a six-year half a trillion dollar public works program financed with a one-time mandatory tax on profits that U.S. companies have amassed overseas. Under current law, profits only face federal taxes if they are returned, or repatriated, to the US; but Obama's new deal would set a tax on...

America’s oil and gas boom was enabled by a huge pile of cheap financing. Many of the leading players in the boom, such as Chesapeake Energy and Continental Resources have for years been making capital investments at levels far surpassing the cashflow generated from operations. The mountain of debt advanced to drillers in recent years is estimated to be in the neighborhood of $500 billion — some $300 billion in leveraged loans and another $200 billion in high yield debt. That’s about 16% of the U.S. high yield debt market, quadruple its share a decade ago. That’s a lot, even...

In an odd coincidence, the last two election cycles have seen a drastic, unexpected drop in the unemployment rate immediately before the election. And in 2012 and 2010, the unemployment rate increased the month or the next after the election. Just as big a coincidence, both 2014 and 2012 saw the drop come in September, but reported in October, the best time to report supposed good news on the economy.

Advantage, Democrats — unless the 248,000 new jobs in September suddenly force Republicans to go on the offensive. I will explain in a second what the Republicans’ next move could be. But first, you may have read that the Labor Department on Friday, in its last jobs report before the mid-term elections, revealed that job growth and the unemployment rate both improved nicely in September — in fact, better than I expected. That’s going to make the Republican battle to take over the Senate a lot harder because issue No. 1 with Americans is the economy. Jobs = votes. In...

In an odd coincidence, the last two election cycles have seen a drastic, unexpected drop in the unemployment rate immediately before the election. And in 2012 and 2010, the unemployment rate increased the month or the next after the election. Just as big a coincidence, both 2014 and 2012 saw the drop come in September, but reported in October, the best time to report supposed good news on the economy. This comes on the heels of this election cycle's surprise news that the unemployment rate decreased .2% to 5.9%., a mere two months after the unemployment rose to 6.2%. For...

America's unemployment rate as measured by the Labor Department vastly underrepresents the number of Americans actually out of work, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass told CNBC. Earlier this month, the government said the nation's unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent in August, while job growth cooled with just 142,000 nonfarm payrolls added. "Look at unemployment, the way it's calculated is it's semi-rigged," he argued in a "Squawk Box" interview. "It will trend down to the 5 percent range just because people stop looking for a job." "If you take everyone that has dropped out of the workforce since the beginning...

div class="content">Interested why despite the euphoric headline NFP print, a cursory glance deeper inside the payrolls report reveals weakness after weakness, with both participation plunging again and wages the worst since last summer? Here is the answer: 4 of the top 5 largest job additions in September, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, education and health and temp help, were of the lowest quality, and paying, jobs possible. So yes, America added a whole lot of minimum wage waiters, store clerks, groundskeepers and temps: truly the stuff New Normal "recoveries" are made of.

Economy In Crisis: A new study by the Illinois Policy Institute shows in the past four years, the number of new food-stamp recipients in the state has outpaced new jobs nearly 2-to-1. Illinois Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, locked in a tight re-election battle with self-made billionaire Republican Bruce Rauner, has been arguing that Illinois, arguably the bluest of blue states, has turned the fiscal corner and is on its way back. The recovery may be slower than Quinn wants it to be — but, he says, it is real. It is an odd recovery, though, that makes more people dependent...

The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell to the lowest level since mid-July, fuelling optimism over the strength of the labor market, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending September 13 decreased by 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 316,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to fall by 11,000 to 305,000 last week. Continuing jobless claims in the week ended September 6 fell to 2.429...

<p>The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, suggesting an acceleration in job growth in September.</p> <p>Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 293,000 for the week ended Sept.20, the Labor Department said on Thursday.</p>

The Great Recession has lasted a lot longer for some than for others. A new survey from Rutgers University’s John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development found that “one in five workers - or nearly 30 million people - say they were laid off from a job in the past five years," dating back to the end of the recession in June 2009. "Nearly 4 in 10 of these laid-off workers say they searched for a job for more than seven months before finding another one; one in five workers laid off during the past five years never found another...

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased in the week ended September 27th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 287,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level of 295,000. The pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected jobless claims to climb to 297,000 from the 293,000 originally reported for the previous week. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also edged down to 294,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of 299,000. With...

This morning I'm watching Bloomberg news, and they just started the hour with a quick discussion of unemployment, in anticipation of the week's statistics. I am left distinctly unenthused by the nature of that "discussion". Nobody is talking about unemployment, as a lack of jobs. We have as a country, one big problem. We have sent millions of AMERICAN JOBS to other countries. Many to the Peoples Republic of China. Our solution is so simple. America needs to bring back American jobs. Nobody is willing to say that. We continue as a nation to run a 30 billion trade deficit...

The U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September as labor markets rediscovered the momentum gained earlier this year. The headline unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 5.9% from 6.1% The better-than-expected figures are certain to rekindle the debate over the timing and trajectory of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as the positive report will have many economists looking for rates to move higher sooner rather than later. In August the economy generated just 142,000 new jobs, well below expectations on weakness in major sectors including manufacturing, retail and transportation. That number was revised upward to 180,000 on Friday, according...

The U.S. unemployment rate is below 6% for the first time in more than six years. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning, Oct. 3, that the economy added 248,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.9% from 6.1% in August. The unemployment rate hadn’t been below the 6% mark since July 2008, according to BLS historical data. Employment increased most strongly in professional and business services, retail trade and health care, the government said. The government said the number of people unemployed in September declined by 329,000 to 9.3 million. During the last year,...

While many will be giddy because the BLS reported that job creation came in at 248,000, well above analysts expectations-- and because unemployment ticked down to 5.9 percent-- make no mistake: this is still a bad job market.ThatÂ’s because another 315,000 people left the labor force last month. When adding in the numbers of people who entered the civilian population (217,000) job creation is hardly keeping up with population growth.The job gains, in fact, are not much better than in previous years. When one accounts for part-time work, discouraged workers and those who have dropped out of the labor force...

Initial Reaction The payroll survey shows a net gain of 248,000 jobs vs. an expectation of 215,000 jobs. Last month was revised up by 69,000 to 180,000. The six-month string of plus 200,000 jobs remains broken. Last month the household survey had a gain in employment of only 16,000. That number was not revised up. This month the household survey shows a respectable gain of 232,000, pretty much in line with the establishment survey. Nonetheless the household survey over the past six months has been much weaker than the establishment survey. One or the other is apt for some serious...

Northeast States: For an area that used to be a political powerhouse, it is becoming increasingly marginalized due to excessive taxes and the ensuing population shift I have written on this subject before, and now the affects of high taxes and population migration are playing out in a substantial, political way: the decline of about 40% of Congressional seats in the Northeast. According to the Census Bureau, high taxpayers are moving south. It notes that in the 11 states that comprise the Northeast, population grew at a rate of only 15% over the thirty year span from 1983-2013, while the...